Comments on: What to write about on your blog? http://raincityguide.com/2006/10/23/what-to-write-about-on-your-blog/ Seattle's Leading Resource for Real Estate Information Sat, 21 Nov 2009 06:01:18 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Eileen http://raincityguide.com/2006/10/23/what-to-write-about-on-your-blog/#comment-26123 Eileen Fri, 27 Oct 2006 16:51:18 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2006/10/23/what-to-write-about-on-your-blog/#comment-26123 I'll stick with just 2 things in David's detailed explanation of where he drives his buyers. First the 650,000 house sold for 510,000 based on comps, only has built in equity if the market jumps right back up. Currently, 510,000 is the value of that house, otherwise it would have sold for 650,000. 2nd you don't get to count a subdividable lot as equity. If you've ever subdivided a lot, you'd find it a very expensive proposition and one that might eat up alot of the future value of that lot. I cost me one whole lot to get two lots in Redmond. Hydrants,roads, grassy swales, etc. Not to mention permit fees, surveys, engineers, etc. to get it to the value of a finished sellable lot. I’ll stick with just 2 things in David’s detailed explanation of where he drives his buyers. First the 650,000 house sold for 510,000 based on comps, only has built in equity if the market jumps right back up. Currently, 510,000 is the value of that house, otherwise it would have sold for 650,000.
2nd you don’t get to count a subdividable lot as equity. If you’ve ever subdivided a lot, you’d find it a very expensive proposition and one that might eat up alot of the future value of that lot. I cost me one whole lot to get two lots in Redmond. Hydrants,roads, grassy swales, etc. Not to mention permit fees, surveys, engineers, etc. to get it to the value of a finished sellable lot.

]]> By: ARDELL http://raincityguide.com/2006/10/23/what-to-write-about-on-your-blog/#comment-24840 ARDELL Wed, 25 Oct 2006 20:23:14 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2006/10/23/what-to-write-about-on-your-blog/#comment-24840 People can easily find me by just putting ARDELL into Google or MSN search. Would be a lot harder for you, yes. My Dad was "Joe the Hat", given all of the Joe's and Joeys in an Italian neighborhood. I would like people to note what or where, like Joe Agent or Joe Redmond. Joe Sullivan will do, but Joe Agent or Joe Redmond tells me SO much more about a man :-) People can easily find me by just putting ARDELL into Google or MSN search. Would be a lot harder for you, yes.

My Dad was “Joe the Hat”, given all of the Joe’s and Joeys in an Italian neighborhood. I would like people to note what or where, like Joe Agent or Joe Redmond. Joe Sullivan will do, but Joe Agent or Joe Redmond tells me SO much more about a man :-)

]]> By: Joe Sullivan http://raincityguide.com/2006/10/23/what-to-write-about-on-your-blog/#comment-24827 Joe Sullivan Wed, 25 Oct 2006 19:12:49 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2006/10/23/what-to-write-about-on-your-blog/#comment-24827 Hey Ardell, My name is also Joe. We've chatted a few times before about "commission rates" and "discount" v. "full service" and such. I like your data based writing and have commented that way. (I'm too lazy to hunt down those links right now.) I just wanted you to know that this Joe is not me. This is the first time I've seen comments from "Joe" that weren't mine. So in the name of clarity I thought I'd chime in. I guess I'll have to use a more distinctive handle. That probably happens more with "Joe" than "Ardell.":) Joe Hey Ardell,
My name is also Joe. We’ve chatted a few times before about “commission rates” and “discount” v. “full service” and such. I like your data based writing and have commented that way. (I’m too lazy to hunt down those links right now.)
I just wanted you to know that this Joe is not me. This is the first time I’ve seen comments from “Joe” that weren’t mine. So in the name of clarity I thought I’d chime in.
I guess I’ll have to use a more distinctive handle. That probably happens more with “Joe” than “Ardell.”:)
Joe

]]> By: ARDELL http://raincityguide.com/2006/10/23/what-to-write-about-on-your-blog/#comment-24792 ARDELL Wed, 25 Oct 2006 16:28:05 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2006/10/23/what-to-write-about-on-your-blog/#comment-24792 Joe, "We've never seen a run up in prices like this". I have. From my perspective, the reason I an watching most carefully is attributable to Greenspan's comments/thinking that the longest sustainable run up, historically, has been seven years. Most of the country started the run up in 1998 and are experiencing the correction phase, which by economist predictions is supposed to last three to five years. The previous run up was after the fall of the double digits with the peak and turn around being in 1989 and 1990. Properties had doubled over the 7 year time span to 1989 (northeast) and then dipped and flattened from 89 to 94 and then flattened and inched up to 98 and then a seven year run up. Seattle area, has not run with the herd in most cases, with Eastside in "the zone" running at it's own separate pace. It is difficult to equate the small area around Microsoft with the rest of King County. I am still seeing a house here and there bidding up to unbelievable prices admidst the many that are lingering on market. My call is it is just fall and come April we will be able to separate the chaff from the wheat. Maybe Sultan, for example and outer vs. inner Duvall, will see a different market than Kirkland, Bellevue and Redmond. Watching 98033 vs. 98034 is a good "predictor" as 98034 is a lag market to 98033. Or may the $500,000 give or take market of Juanita vs. the $1.3 plus market in Kirkland proper. Also, watching newer townhomes in Redmond and Bellevue. There are some with "problems" that linger due to lawsuits against the builder, so using "just stats" doesn't tell you as much as when you eliminate the one or two problem areas from the pack. I think I will do some stats today to see if newer vs. older makes a difference. Seems to me that houses built since 1990 sell better than ramblers built in the 60's for example. I don't see the value in watching "King County" stats at this point in time. The overall picture is not as important of the tiny sub-market pictures. Joe,

“We’ve never seen a run up in prices like this”. I have.

From my perspective, the reason I an watching most carefully is attributable to Greenspan’s comments/thinking that the longest sustainable run up, historically, has been seven years. Most of the country started the run up in 1998 and are experiencing the correction phase, which by economist predictions is supposed to last three to five years.

The previous run up was after the fall of the double digits with the peak and turn around being in 1989 and 1990. Properties had doubled over the 7 year time span to 1989 (northeast) and then dipped and flattened from 89 to 94 and then flattened and inched up to 98 and then a seven year run up.

Seattle area, has not run with the herd in most cases, with Eastside in “the zone” running at it’s own separate pace. It is difficult to equate the small area around Microsoft with the rest of King County.

I am still seeing a house here and there bidding up to unbelievable prices admidst the many that are lingering on market. My call is it is just fall and come April we will be able to separate the chaff from the wheat. Maybe Sultan, for example and outer vs. inner Duvall, will see a different market than Kirkland, Bellevue and Redmond. Watching 98033 vs. 98034 is a good “predictor” as 98034 is a lag market to 98033. Or may the $500,000 give or take market of Juanita vs. the $1.3 plus market in Kirkland proper.

Also, watching newer townhomes in Redmond and Bellevue. There are some with “problems” that linger due to lawsuits against the builder, so using “just stats” doesn’t tell you as much as when you eliminate the one or two problem areas from the pack.

I think I will do some stats today to see if newer vs. older makes a difference. Seems to me that houses built since 1990 sell better than ramblers built in the 60’s for example.

I don’t see the value in watching “King County” stats at this point in time. The overall picture is not as important of the tiny sub-market pictures.

]]> By: Joe http://raincityguide.com/2006/10/23/what-to-write-about-on-your-blog/#comment-24781 Joe Wed, 25 Oct 2006 15:15:52 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2006/10/23/what-to-write-about-on-your-blog/#comment-24781 >But predicting where the market will be in two or three years takes a crystal ball. Historically it takes 3 years from peak to trough; generally 6 years peak to peak. We've never seen a runup in prices like this, and for so long, so it is likely that it will take much, much longer to find the bottom. Calling the bottom isn't nearly as difficult as the top, which is something I never do. I think its' pretty obvious that we are at the top now, as local data suggests. My question, if David Lereah never called the top, how can he call the bottom? And so soon? We'll have false bottoms all the way down... I can't wait to snap up his new book though! Such a great writer he is... >But predicting where the market will be in two or three years takes a crystal ball.

Historically it takes 3 years from peak to trough; generally 6 years peak to peak. We’ve never seen a runup in prices like this, and for so long, so it is likely that it will take much, much longer to find the bottom. Calling the bottom isn’t nearly as difficult as the top, which is something I never do. I think its’ pretty obvious that we are at the top now, as local data suggests.

My question, if David Lereah never called the top, how can he call the bottom? And so soon? We’ll have false bottoms all the way down… I can’t wait to snap up his new book though! Such a great writer he is…

]]> By: ARDELL http://raincityguide.com/2006/10/23/what-to-write-about-on-your-blog/#comment-24684 ARDELL Wed, 25 Oct 2006 04:35:33 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2006/10/23/what-to-write-about-on-your-blog/#comment-24684 Thank you David. Excellent come back. I don't know how often you visit here, but some people are afraid and don't want to hear Rah Rah speeches about it ALWAYS being a good time to buy. It just doesn't sound like an honest comment. I seriously appreciate your taking the time to return with your latest and very honest response. A lot of readers are first time buyers who are buying their first home. They are not buying for investment or to own five houses free and clear by the time they retire. They are often young people making that first step to buy the home they will live in vs. renting. They will sell it when they buy their next home. The next two to three years will be hard to call, as certainly much of the country is in a situation where people who bought last year and need to sell this year, are selling at less than they paid. I have not seen that here, but we can't act like we are so special that it cannot happen. People do need to be cautious about being blinded by staging and "the look" and not paying attention to deferred maintenance and underlying value. Historically, holding two to three years could in fact bring you to a down market. I've made the most money I ever made on a property by holding it only 10 months. Timing is everything...for sure. But predicting where the market will be in two or three years takes a crystal ball. When the market increases to double what someone paid, it dropping back 30% is still a 70% increase...except to the guy that bought it at peak. That is what people are afraid of...have we reached a peak? Before you answer...NO one knows the answer. In the meantime, it is good to buy with caution. Thank you David. Excellent come back. I don’t know how often you visit here, but some people are afraid and don’t want to hear Rah Rah speeches about it ALWAYS being a good time to buy. It just doesn’t sound like an honest comment. I seriously appreciate your taking the time to return with your latest and very honest response.

A lot of readers are first time buyers who are buying their first home. They are not buying for investment or to own five houses free and clear by the time they retire. They are often young people making that first step to buy the home they will live in vs. renting. They will sell it when they buy their next home.

The next two to three years will be hard to call, as certainly much of the country is in a situation where people who bought last year and need to sell this year, are selling at less than they paid. I have not seen that here, but we can’t act like we are so special that it cannot happen. People do need to be cautious about being blinded by staging and “the look” and not paying attention to deferred maintenance and underlying value.

Historically, holding two to three years could in fact bring you to a down market. I’ve made the most money I ever made on a property by holding it only 10 months. Timing is everything…for sure. But predicting where the market will be in two or three years takes a crystal ball.

When the market increases to double what someone paid, it dropping back 30% is still a 70% increase…except to the guy that bought it at peak. That is what people are afraid of…have we reached a peak? Before you answer…NO one knows the answer. In the meantime, it is good to buy with caution.

]]> By: David Losh http://raincityguide.com/2006/10/23/what-to-write-about-on-your-blog/#comment-24667 David Losh Wed, 25 Oct 2006 03:40:39 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2006/10/23/what-to-write-about-on-your-blog/#comment-24667 Goodness! I just bought a little property tonight. We'll gut it and add a bath. The seller needs to sell, I don't really want to buy, but I think it will be OK. Real Estate is a business that I enjoy. I drive around in the pick up, sometimes with the dogs, most of the time by myself and look at houses. It sounds stupid, but I have guys who call me with what they think are good deals. I help people buy and sell to the very best of my ability. To me that's the business. I didn't mention that my buyer with the equity position also got a subdividable lot with the seven bedroom three bath home he purchased for $510K. He made a low offer on a $650K listing. The property comps at $650K but after being on the market for a few months the estate took a low offer that they were thrilled to get. I had shown the house numerous times to buyers who didn't get it. My wife and I thought about the deal, but I am a rehabber and not a builder. I hate getting permits or arguing with architects. There is nothing used car salelsy about it. I do the best I can for my clients. I don't lie, or pretend that things are different than they are. In my opinion people pay me for my advice. My experiance in Real Estate matters spans thirty years. I speak my mind. I operate a set of service businesses. Many of the people who I talk with work jobs. A lot of those people are upset today about being priced out of the housing market. The advice I give involves risk. It's not for everybody, but here goes. The theory is that it takes five houses owned free and clear in order to retire. There is the personal residence and four rentals. To own those properties free and clear you may need to buy and sell a hundred homes, but the idea is to park all of the equity into the best five. Once you buy a home with a thirty year fixed mortgage you can budget. You throw money at the principle to have the loan amortize faster. A thirty year can become a fifteen by adding a few payment per year. The budget is all important. You are purchasing of course with present dollars and paying the property off with future dollars. Buying and holding may be great, but that takes many years. Buying equity in investment properties to pay down the principle on the chosen few makes things go quicker. The two to three year rule has to do with appreciation and or the personal residence tax advantage. Housing is tied to the consumer price index in a loose kind of way so if the price of housing were to go down 30% we would have more to worry about than giving the bank thier money. Goodness!
I just bought a little property tonight. We’ll gut it and add a bath. The seller needs to sell, I don’t really want to buy, but I think it will be OK. Real Estate is a business that I enjoy. I drive around in the pick up, sometimes with the dogs, most of the time by myself and look at houses. It sounds stupid, but I have guys who call me with what they think are good deals. I help people buy and sell to the very best of my ability. To me that’s the business.
I didn’t mention that my buyer with the equity position also got a subdividable lot with the seven bedroom three bath home he purchased for $510K. He made a low offer on a $650K listing. The property comps at $650K but after being on the market for a few months the estate took a low offer that they were thrilled to get. I had shown the house numerous times to buyers who didn’t get it. My wife and I thought about the deal, but I am a rehabber and not a builder. I hate getting permits or arguing with architects.
There is nothing used car salelsy about it. I do the best I can for my clients. I don’t lie, or pretend that things are different than they are. In my opinion people pay me for my advice. My experiance in Real Estate matters spans thirty years. I speak my mind.
I operate a set of service businesses. Many of the people who I talk with work jobs. A lot of those people are upset today about being priced out of the housing market. The advice I give involves risk. It’s not for everybody, but here goes. The theory is that it takes five houses owned free and clear in order to retire. There is the personal residence and four rentals. To own those properties free and clear you may need to buy and sell a hundred homes, but the idea is to park all of the equity into the best five. Once you buy a home with a thirty year fixed mortgage you can budget. You throw money at the principle to have the loan amortize faster. A thirty year can become a fifteen by adding a few payment per year.
The budget is all important. You are purchasing of course with present dollars and paying the property off with future dollars. Buying and holding may be great, but that takes many years. Buying equity in investment properties to pay down the principle on the chosen few makes things go quicker.
The two to three year rule has to do with appreciation and or the personal residence tax advantage. Housing is tied to the consumer price index in a loose kind of way so if the price of housing were to go down 30% we would have more to worry about than giving the bank thier money.

]]> By: ARDELL http://raincityguide.com/2006/10/23/what-to-write-about-on-your-blog/#comment-24662 ARDELL Wed, 25 Oct 2006 03:07:07 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2006/10/23/what-to-write-about-on-your-blog/#comment-24662 Will, If the person is putting the extra money into the property, like buying a fixer and taking the $100,000 and remodeling it, then maybe it wouldn't be negative equity. More like a "construction/permanent" type loan based on the value of the end product. As I said in my "Exotic" post, all of these loans are good if they are used at the appropriate time and for the right and intended purpose. Will,

If the person is putting the extra money into the property, like buying a fixer and taking the $100,000 and remodeling it, then maybe it wouldn’t be negative equity. More like a “construction/permanent” type loan based on the value of the end product.

As I said in my “Exotic” post, all of these loans are good if they are used at the appropriate time and for the right and intended purpose.

]]> By: Will W http://raincityguide.com/2006/10/23/what-to-write-about-on-your-blog/#comment-24584 Will W Tue, 24 Oct 2006 23:07:44 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2006/10/23/what-to-write-about-on-your-blog/#comment-24584 Wells Fargo currently offers a 125% LTV mortgage product - so if you bought a $400K home you could immediately claim "$100K in equity" based on the $500K mortgage value. Unfortunately, it's all negative equity. Wells Fargo currently offers a 125% LTV mortgage product – so if you bought a $400K home you could immediately claim “$100K in equity” based on the $500K mortgage value. Unfortunately, it’s all negative equity.

]]> By: ARDELL http://raincityguide.com/2006/10/23/what-to-write-about-on-your-blog/#comment-24576 ARDELL Tue, 24 Oct 2006 22:41:17 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2006/10/23/what-to-write-about-on-your-blog/#comment-24576 David, I didn't mean to be so tough on you, but it is so hard for the rest of us agents to live down the stereotype of "It's always a good time to buy!" agents. Maybe you didn't really mean that. It sounds so "used car salesman". David,

I didn’t mean to be so tough on you, but it is so hard for the rest of us agents to live down the stereotype of “It’s always a good time to buy!” agents. Maybe you didn’t really mean that. It sounds so “used car salesman”.

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