It was the only property in Redmond that I could find, past present or future, that would be the equivalent to a “Kirkland” style tear down. In Bellevue and Redmond, I see more 90% remodels than true teardowns. I skirted the subject because I do not think your premise that 50s and 60s built housing in Redmond (or Bellevue) is ripe for massive teardown. I think you would still get more for your property by an owner occupant than a builder.

If you email me privately your address and name, I can give you a more precise reading on that. Are there homes on your street that were bought by builders and torn down? The next street over? If not, that’s a clue that builder’s are not interested.

That is where flippers have made their biggest mistakes. If you walk down a street and see no investment on that street, that is a good sign that it is not a good place to invest. Every street is different and there is the “good side” and the “bad side” on some. Just because builders are buying everything they can get their hands on, on the odd numbered side, doesn’t mean they are remotely interested on the even side, for example.

The main footprint is large enough on the house shown, that my guess is it will be a 90% remodel by a builder, not a “developer”.

To answer your question, I don’t think the lot values of single older ramblers and ranchers in Redmond is, or is going to, reach the point where builders want them. I looked “behind” all of the new construct SFR residences in Kirkland, Bellevue and Redmond. On the ones in Kirkland, I found the former house that was torn down to build the new one. In Redmond and Bellevue? Not. The only three I know of are 1) view property in Lochmoor being done by an owner to live in and not a builder 2) the one above that had “water damage” 3) One over by Clyde Hill that has a view of downtown Bellevue.

By and large, the neighborhoods of which you speak will sell to private owners, so letting it run down to the point where only a builder would want it, is not likely a very smart move.

Tell us the ‘rest of the story’ with regards to the house pictured at the top. Was this house torn down and replaced with something else, or was it fixed up? Or is it still for sale in its current condition, waiting for a developer to put something on it? I’m not clear on that.

So how do I find out how much a developer is willing to pay for my lot (you veered off into what’s happening at the upper end of the market)? KC assessment? Zillow? Call builders and ask them?

Condo market doesn’t fall from the top down, because of the condo fees. Downtown Bellevue isn’t a market indicator, so I don’t watch it.

The high end condo market either lives or dies. What happens there doesn’t affect the guy trying to buy or sell a single family home at $650,000 or less, nor does it affect the mainstream condo market with monthly HOA dues of $200 give or take, priced at $350,000 or less.

It’s a status market, and I tend not to deal in status real estate. It’s too much of a gamble. People don’t buy high end condos because they are good investments. They buy high end condos…uh…not sure why because I don’t deal in that market. My rule of thumb is, I only sell that which I can come back and sell. When a buyer buys, I look at being able to come back and sell it for the same price or better. That definition never fits the status market. I have to see the underlying and lasting value, and high priced, new, high condo fee market never seems to pass my smell test.

You didn’t address the condo/townhome market. There, I think the “falling from the top down” will happen at far lower prices. I’m seeing LOTS of new condo/townhome construction around the Eastside and Seattle for $600K to $1M (including apartment conversions) and I think that there will not be enough demand for all these very expensive units. As an expample, today I saw condos in Bellevue on the corner of Bellevue Way and NE 8th “priced from the $700’s”. This is the same lot where the construction had been halted on a previous project during the 2001 equity bust. These units are packed in like sardines on a very busy street. Too many units are being priced as though everyone is a millionare, and there just won’t be enough of them to go around to support these prices.