Has anyone seen the action in the 10 year bond? (it’s the bond that is the most influencial regarding mortgage interest rates)

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ETNX&t=5d

Warning! It is not for the feint of heart.

This has implications for the overall equity market as well (for you Boomers out there that need both your house and 401(k) for your golden years). When you get a speculative, leveraged buy-out fervor driving your market (like we have had since March), this has the roughly analogous effect of dumping 5 gallons of water on a small campfire.

Anyway…back to the action.

http://the-wtf-files.blogspot.com/

Dustin,
Thanks for not deleting my previous posts. I did think it was necessary to defend myself against a baseless charge.

For everyone else, let’s steer the non-economics discussions to an appropriate forum.

Let this be the last word on this forum on this subject.

All the best,
E

Someone asked for my “exit strategy” and I said it is more cultural than economic. Another posited that rising wages would lift RE, and I said the modern reality makes rising wages unlikely due to current events.

I would prefer to discuss things of this nature elsewhere.

I do contest that what I said was bigoted. Politically incorrect for a ultra-sensitive, insular place like Seattle – yes, but not bigoted.

Delete away. I hold no grudge against you or anyone else.

I know you view it as a personal attack on your rights to be heard, but RCG is simply not the place for your bigoted opinions. I’ve deleted your last comment which is only meant to inflame the discussion and will happily delete similar discussions in the future (as I’ve done in the past when you try to turn the conversation towards these issues…).

I don’t want this to turn into a political discussion either, I was just shocked by the terms you used that I felt compelled to respond.

I have no problem whatsoever with your argument as stated in your reply to my comment: “Multiculturalism is a failed, but politically fashionable, policy…”. That is a totally legitimate opinion that one can agree or disagree with.

On the other hand, “peasants and freaks from the Third World…” is a bigot statement no matter how you slice it.

Other than that, I really do enjoy your posts and look forward to reading your article.

6 mile radius is a bit far to be a cohesive representation. I’ll break it down for you. I can tell you that the market within 3 miles in single family homes around $600,000 give or take has been strong, with many multiple offer scenarios and property selling a little higher than it should. I’ll see if I can track some appreciation in apples to apples comparisons for you.

The house behind me that sold for over $1.6 million flipped straight to a second buyer without skipping a beat when the first one fell out at inspection.

I won’t likely do all over stats again until end of June results are in. It’s feeling more like January than June. Lot of activity around new listings while others are sitting. Usually that changes in May, but I think interest rates going up caused some sluggishness.

When we had the big rise in 2005 it was because interest rates went down the week of June 9th. But I don’t expect that with Bernanke vs. Greenspan. Without incentives, I think rates would have been closer to 7% back then. I’m hoping to see rates back at 5.75% to 5.875 by mid to end of June. Without that, we could see this market staying about the same for the balance of the season.

I’m seeing appreciation of about 14% generally so far this season, so we could easily hit the 15% to 25% by September that I expected.

The FED may not be able to get rates down. If the selloff in the dollar keeps going, they will have to raise rates to defend it. Either that, or you are paying $6 for gas.

The FED is trapped. No matter what they do, they are screwed. Once the general public loses faith in the FED, you will see some real fireworks.

Bottom line: You just can’t borrow your way to prosperity. Living beyond your means has consequences. This is true on the individual level and on the world scale.

In economics there is no amnesty – just a stay of execution.

You are asking some questions that need to be answered. I don’t think the regulars at RCG want this to be a social/political forum, so I’ll reserve my answers to another place.

Just a quick response: Multiculturalism is a failed, but politically fashionable, policy. Dissent from multiculturalism is equated with being a member of some xenophobic/NAZI-esque group, regardless of the facts.

You said that I am “seemingly educated and rational” yet ponder the seeming paradox of not holding myopic, Leftist views on culture. I reject that someone has to be a rube in order to take a long view of history, culture, psychometrics, and governance. I think it is folly to conclude that the prevailing, politically correct, myopic view of culture is the only viable means of evaluating the times. This is where it becomes political. The Left has virtually quashed all dissent through PC thought orthodoxy. When anyone, or any medium, dissents, they are usually met with legal or violent resistance.

I’m getting too old to cower in the presence of PC thought orthodoxy. Perhaps if all the overeducated, annointed, busy-bodies actually left the college campus, the newsroom, or government, and had to live in society and take their data from observations, rather than endless point papers and books that descend from inbred, PC research, they would understand that it is their insular way of living that makes their Leftist views palatable. Reality does not ratify their theories.

It is no coincidence that in order to keep the resourceful and self sufficient in a socialist system, you need some means of force. The stupid, lazy, shiftless, and irresponsible embrace socialism and cultural decay.

Culture has consequences. If you want to read about how I view this whole mess, check me out at

http://the-wtf-files.blogspot.com/

Give me a day or two to put together an article. Feel free to comment as you deem appropriate. I anxiously look forward to your thoughts and hope we can engage in a meaningful dialogue.

BTW, I have more disdain for GWB than your average Seattlite, so it is not a neo-con site.

Can you do a roundup on appreciation, regular stats in Redmond, 6 miles from Microsoft. The folks at seattlebubble are predicting HUGE drops Thanks!