Comments on: The Sky is Falling! The Sky is Falling! http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/13/the-sky-is-falling-the-sky-is-falling/ Seattle's Leading Resource for Real Estate Information Sun, 08 Nov 2009 01:47:42 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Donthatecongratulate http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/13/the-sky-is-falling-the-sky-is-falling/#comment-215498 Donthatecongratulate Thu, 22 Nov 2007 22:03:31 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/13/the-sky-is-falling-the-sky-is-falling/#comment-215498 The odd thing about the bubbleheads is they have been spectators about investing in the stock market with their cries of "Dow 5000", spectators about investing in real estate with their cries of "housing is going to crash" and specators in life as they post away alone in their one bedroom apartment! Alone. Life is finite, enjoy it while it lasts. Anger and resentment is a waste of energy. Happy Thanksgiving. The odd thing about the bubbleheads is they have been spectators about investing in the stock market with their cries of “Dow 5000″, spectators about investing in real estate with their cries of “housing is going to crash” and specators in life as they post away alone in their one bedroom apartment! Alone. Life is finite, enjoy it while it lasts. Anger and resentment is a waste of energy. Happy Thanksgiving.

]]> By: Matthew http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/13/the-sky-is-falling-the-sky-is-falling/#comment-214467 Matthew Wed, 21 Nov 2007 00:17:18 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/13/the-sky-is-falling-the-sky-is-falling/#comment-214467 Bottom line: Returns on the S&P average the last 80 years are superior to returns in RE. Sure Barbara Walters could have bought a condo in NY for a few hundred thousand. She could have also bought the same amount of stock in Microsoft and be worth 100 million. It amazes me that people still at this point, while our nation is facing the myriad of problems that Jillayne eloquently outlined, is still promoting articles such as these. Mind boggling. Truly people have no clue how dire the situation is. Bottom line:

Returns on the S&P average the last 80 years are superior to returns in RE.

Sure Barbara Walters could have bought a condo in NY for a few hundred thousand. She could have also bought the same amount of stock in Microsoft and be worth 100 million.

It amazes me that people still at this point, while our nation is facing the myriad of problems that Jillayne eloquently outlined, is still promoting articles such as these. Mind boggling. Truly people have no clue how dire the situation is.

]]> By: Jim Reppond http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/13/the-sky-is-falling-the-sky-is-falling/#comment-213648 Jim Reppond Mon, 19 Nov 2007 16:28:27 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/13/the-sky-is-falling-the-sky-is-falling/#comment-213648 deejayoh, I wasn't trying to make any major "analysis" here. I just found it interesting and a bit humorous so I thought I would pass it along. I think looking at history gives a unique and perhaps broader perspective. I started to try to find the original source on some of these older quotes and quickly realized most of these are so old they cannot be found online. So I just linked back to the publication of origin. I wasn’t trying to “mislead” anyone, but I guess it’s fair to say it was a bit lazy. While there have been some fluctuations in real estate values as you note, over all the trend has been for real estate to outperform inflation (I assume that’s what you mean by REAL $) over the long haul. Other investments, such as stocks, bonds, gold, etc. have been MUCH more volatile. I could go try and find some sources to make my point, but that seems to be common knowledge. Anyone want to pipe in with some credible statistics on this? (yes, I’m being lazy again:-) Do I have an agenda and bias on this? ABSOLUTELY! I make no bones about the fact that I am a passionate advocate of home ownership and the value that brings to people's lives, financially and otherwise. That has a lot to do with why I am a Realtor. deejayoh,

I wasn’t trying to make any major “analysis” here. I just found it interesting and a bit humorous so I thought I would pass it along. I think looking at history gives a unique and perhaps broader perspective. I started to try to find the original source on some of these older quotes and quickly realized most of these are so old they cannot be found online. So I just linked back to the publication of origin. I wasn’t trying to “mislead” anyone, but I guess it’s fair to say it was a bit lazy.

While there have been some fluctuations in real estate values as you note, over all the trend has been for real estate to outperform inflation (I assume that’s what you mean by REAL $) over the long haul. Other investments, such as stocks, bonds, gold, etc. have been MUCH more volatile. I could go try and find some sources to make my point, but that seems to be common knowledge. Anyone want to pipe in with some credible statistics on this? (yes, I’m being lazy again:-)

Do I have an agenda and bias on this? ABSOLUTELY! I make no bones about the fact that I am a passionate advocate of home ownership and the value that brings to people’s lives, financially and otherwise. That has a lot to do with why I am a Realtor.

]]> By: Lucas http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/13/the-sky-is-falling-the-sky-is-falling/#comment-213617 Lucas Mon, 19 Nov 2007 15:15:56 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/13/the-sky-is-falling-the-sky-is-falling/#comment-213617 deejayoh, Note that I posted a link to the same graph (different source) in #7. ;) deejayoh,

Note that I posted a link to the same graph (different source) in #7.

;)

]]> By: deejayoh http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/13/the-sky-is-falling-the-sky-is-falling/#comment-213068 deejayoh Sun, 18 Nov 2007 20:50:07 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/13/the-sky-is-falling-the-sky-is-falling/#comment-213068 I don't give much credence to this sort of "analysis" as it is just as easy to find ridiculous quotes on any topic (to wit: the oft purported statement by the the founder of IBM that there existed a "worldwide market for 5 computers" - which is, of course, <a href="http://www.cedmagic.com/history/ibm-701-watson.html" rel="nofollow">likely an urban legend</a>). It's kind of like forwarding spam. But providing links on these comments to the purported "source" as if to provide support for their credibility but not bothering to find the actual article to verify they are accurate is at lazy at best and at worst misleading. Moreover, when taken in context of short-term media focus and ever shortening ownership periods - the timing of many of these articles is pretty spot on: if you look at Shiller's work, they were published right at major inflection points in the market where real estate values dropped 5-10% in REAL $ terms over the next few years - late 40's - late 70's/early 80's - early 90's http://www.1stmillionat33.com/posts/06-09-12/house_his.gif I don’t give much credence to this sort of “analysis” as it is just as easy to find ridiculous quotes on any topic (to wit: the oft purported statement by the the founder of IBM that there existed a “worldwide market for 5 computers” – which is, of course, likely an urban legend). It’s kind of like forwarding spam.
But providing links on these comments to the purported “source” as if to provide support for their credibility but not bothering to find the actual article to verify they are accurate is at lazy at best and at worst misleading.

Moreover, when taken in context of short-term media focus and ever shortening ownership periods – the timing of many of these articles is pretty spot on: if you look at Shiller’s work, they were published right at major inflection points in the market where real estate values dropped 5-10% in REAL $ terms over the next few years
– late 40’s
– late 70’s/early 80’s
– early 90’s

http://www.1stmillionat33.com/posts/06-09-12/house_his.gif

]]> By: Dustin http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/13/the-sky-is-falling-the-sky-is-falling/#comment-212692 Dustin Sun, 18 Nov 2007 09:36:48 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/13/the-sky-is-falling-the-sky-is-falling/#comment-212692 Ubersalad, I've been out of touch for a few days, but am just now reviewing comments from the past few days... Consequently, this is your first and last warning. Do not call anyone an idiot on this site again and do not EVER tell someone they shouldn't write on this site. That type of intimidation is never appropriate at Rain City Guide... <blockquote>idiot, don’t write anymore please.</blockquote> Ubersalad,

I’ve been out of touch for a few days, but am just now reviewing comments from the past few days…

Consequently, this is your first and last warning. Do not call anyone an idiot on this site again and do not EVER tell someone they shouldn’t write on this site. That type of intimidation is never appropriate at Rain City Guide…

idiot, don’t write anymore please.

]]> By: Ubersalad http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/13/the-sky-is-falling-the-sky-is-falling/#comment-211490 Ubersalad Fri, 16 Nov 2007 17:47:58 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/13/the-sky-is-falling-the-sky-is-falling/#comment-211490 REI I just find it amusing that you really "try", but you're way off on everything you're saying. I am here to seek resources and gather my own opinion, which I am humble to say is worthless. I'll share one. Over the history, many bright minds have made huge fortune in real estate. In this last RE boom, many people begin to feel like they're becoming one of the bright minds and begin to think and act like one. News flash, you are not. RE has been turned into a monkey business, any trained monkey could have made money in real estate in the last 4 years. REI I just find it amusing that you really “try”, but you’re way off on everything you’re saying.

I am here to seek resources and gather my own opinion, which I am humble to say is worthless.

I’ll share one. Over the history, many bright minds have made huge fortune in real estate. In this last RE boom, many people begin to feel like they’re becoming one of the bright minds and begin to think and act like one.

News flash, you are not. RE has been turned into a monkey business, any trained monkey could have made money in real estate in the last 4 years.

]]> By: Linda Petersen http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/13/the-sky-is-falling-the-sky-is-falling/#comment-211489 Linda Petersen Fri, 16 Nov 2007 17:46:43 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/13/the-sky-is-falling-the-sky-is-falling/#comment-211489 The sky is falling? "Investment" is always a slice of timing---Stocks --Real Estate--Commodities--will always fluctuate but continually go up over time. Short term investment have always been risky. I am helping many clients through their acquisitions and selling in a "down" market; there are different formulas to both. We all will get through this time in the real estate market just as we have in the past years as they have fluctuated. The Banker is under strict observation and scrambling to stay in business through wrong doing in the industry. In this Buyer's market the Buyers are going to learn to that they must save money to invest money in real estate or other choices. The sky is falling?
“Investment” is always a slice of timing—Stocks –Real Estate–Commodities–will always fluctuate but continually go up over time. Short term investment have always been risky.
I am helping many clients through their acquisitions and selling in a “down” market; there are different formulas to both. We all will get through this time in the real estate market just as we have in the past years as they have fluctuated. The Banker is under strict observation and scrambling to stay in business through wrong doing in the industry. In this Buyer’s market the Buyers are going to learn to that they must save money to invest money in real estate or other choices.

]]> By: tj http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/13/the-sky-is-falling-the-sky-is-falling/#comment-211486 tj Fri, 16 Nov 2007 17:38:33 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/13/the-sky-is-falling-the-sky-is-falling/#comment-211486 Jim, a problem with this kind of post is that it risks turning RCG into just another broker propaganda blog. It will likely make consumers start ignoring RCG which would really be a pity since contributors like Jillayne for sure and Rhonda most of the time and Ardell occassionally provide very useful information for consumers. Jim, a problem with this kind of post is that it risks turning RCG into just another broker propaganda blog. It will likely make consumers start ignoring RCG which would really be a pity since contributors like Jillayne for sure and Rhonda most of the time and Ardell occassionally provide very useful information for consumers.

]]> By: RE Investor http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/13/the-sky-is-falling-the-sky-is-falling/#comment-211485 RE Investor Fri, 16 Nov 2007 17:37:30 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/13/the-sky-is-falling-the-sky-is-falling/#comment-211485 Ubersalad... Please feel free (at some time) to make a point. So far you have only shown up to bash others. You are obviously VERY passionate on this subject. (Did you really say "idiot?") What IS your opinion on Home Ownership and Real Estate Investment. This is Your chance to state your analysis of the current and future real estate market. Please try and add some value to this forum without a negative reference to others. The stage is yours. -REI Ubersalad…

Please feel free (at some time) to make a point. So far you have only shown up to bash others. You are obviously VERY passionate on this subject. (Did you really say “idiot?”) What IS your opinion on Home Ownership and Real Estate Investment. This is Your chance to state your analysis of the current and future real estate market. Please try and add some value to this forum without a negative reference to others. The stage is yours.

-REI

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