Comments on: Why are sales down and prices up? http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/25/why-are-sales-down-and-prices-up/ Seattle's Leading Resource for Real Estate Information Fri, 19 Mar 2010 14:54:30 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: shaun http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/25/why-are-sales-down-and-prices-up/#comment-226584 shaun Wed, 12 Dec 2007 21:04:10 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/25/why-are-sales-down-and-prices-up/#comment-226584 anything substantially different from previous years...... huh? what could there possibly be? i can't imagine a single thing that has changed since 2004. oh, wait. didn't i hear something about ridiculous speculative financing tools disappearing? people being expected to actually bring cash to the table when they sign a loan? a nationwide recession bringing consumer confidence to levels previously caused by natural disasters? i know as Realtors you are expected to pretend things are ok, but they really aren't. much sounder markets than Seattle are already on the downhill side of this boom. sacrifice a few sales today for credibility tomorrow. it will be worth it. anything substantially different from previous years……

huh? what could there possibly be?

i can’t imagine a single thing that has changed since 2004.

oh, wait. didn’t i hear something about ridiculous speculative financing tools disappearing? people being expected to actually bring cash to the table when they sign a loan? a nationwide recession bringing consumer confidence to levels previously caused by natural disasters?

i know as Realtors you are expected to pretend things are ok, but they really aren’t. much sounder markets than Seattle are already on the downhill side of this boom. sacrifice a few sales today for credibility tomorrow. it will be worth it.

]]> By: ARDELL http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/25/why-are-sales-down-and-prices-up/#comment-219868 ARDELL Sat, 01 Dec 2007 00:54:24 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/25/why-are-sales-down-and-prices-up/#comment-219868 I felt that way last year and in year's past, Kary. But this year we really need ot hone in on if anything is substantially different than in past years. Yes, I do think we won't know everything we need to know until March or April of next year, as in most years. Some and most days I feel like the worst is over and August to November was the darkest before the dawn period. I'll check your hypothesis when I work on the age range for tj this weekend, and post the results. I felt that way last year and in year’s past, Kary. But this year we really need ot hone in on if anything is substantially different than in past years. Yes, I do think we won’t know everything we need to know until March or April of next year, as in most years. Some and most days I feel like the worst is over and August to November was the darkest before the dawn period.

I’ll check your hypothesis when I work on the age range for tj this weekend, and post the results.

]]> By: Kary L. Krismer http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/25/why-are-sales-down-and-prices-up/#comment-219736 Kary L. Krismer Fri, 30 Nov 2007 18:18:57 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/25/why-are-sales-down-and-prices-up/#comment-219736 Every time I see this piece I think to myself one thing--and it's somewhat inconsistent with what I wrote above--but not entirely so. I'm not sure it's that useful to compare the price of sold and "not sold" properties, especially in this market. The sold properties probably are more likely to have certain attributes than the "not solds." Remodeled kitchens, fresh paint, no mess scattered about, etc. Whenever I'm previewing houses/condos, I really wonder how some owners ever expect to sell their houses. When there's 10 properties that meet the criteria, similarly priced, and only 2 of them are neat and clean, which 2 do you think will sell first? Every time I see this piece I think to myself one thing–and it’s somewhat inconsistent with what I wrote above–but not entirely so.

I’m not sure it’s that useful to compare the price of sold and “not sold” properties, especially in this market. The sold properties probably are more likely to have certain attributes than the “not solds.” Remodeled kitchens, fresh paint, no mess scattered about, etc.

Whenever I’m previewing houses/condos, I really wonder how some owners ever expect to sell their houses. When there’s 10 properties that meet the criteria, similarly priced, and only 2 of them are neat and clean, which 2 do you think will sell first?

]]> By: ARDELL http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/25/why-are-sales-down-and-prices-up/#comment-219291 ARDELL Fri, 30 Nov 2007 05:36:50 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/25/why-are-sales-down-and-prices-up/#comment-219291 tj In the up to $800,000 the median square footage for in escrow is 1,460 and the median square footage for not sold is 1,558.. Sorry, I was rushing that in before a meeting this morning. tj

In the up to $800,000 the median square footage for in escrow is 1,460 and the median square footage for not sold is 1,558.. Sorry, I was rushing that in before a meeting this morning.

]]> By: tj http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/25/why-are-sales-down-and-prices-up/#comment-219041 tj Thu, 29 Nov 2007 19:43:53 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/25/why-are-sales-down-and-prices-up/#comment-219041 Still wrong with "Not Sold" since I noticed you didn't give the sqft for "Not Sold" under $800k. Sorry about all the corrections...The rest of the list should be correct though with it's indication that the peak value might be passed at this point of time. Still wrong with “Not Sold” since I noticed you didn’t give the sqft for “Not Sold” under $800k. Sorry about all the corrections…The rest of the list should be correct though with it’s indication that the peak value might be passed at this point of time.

]]> By: tj http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/25/why-are-sales-down-and-prices-up/#comment-219038 tj Thu, 29 Nov 2007 19:29:37 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/25/why-are-sales-down-and-prices-up/#comment-219038 One more, the "not sold" calculation I did is wrong. The number should be 2.69 sqft for $1k. I fully agree with you, who are they kidding? One more, the “not sold” calculation I did is wrong. The number should be 2.69 sqft for $1k. I fully agree with you, who are they kidding?

]]> By: tj http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/25/why-are-sales-down-and-prices-up/#comment-219013 tj Thu, 29 Nov 2007 18:22:04 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/25/why-are-sales-down-and-prices-up/#comment-219013 Another mistake, it's the sqft $1k buys not 1$. I wish it was 1$... Another mistake, it’s the sqft $1k buys not 1$. I wish it was 1$…

]]> By: tj http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/25/why-are-sales-down-and-prices-up/#comment-219011 tj Thu, 29 Nov 2007 18:20:29 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/25/why-are-sales-down-and-prices-up/#comment-219011 Sorry, it should be "Not Sold" in the last row not "On sold" Sorry, it should be “Not Sold” in the last row not “On sold”

]]> By: tj http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/25/why-are-sales-down-and-prices-up/#comment-219007 tj Thu, 29 Nov 2007 18:19:14 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/25/why-are-sales-down-and-prices-up/#comment-219007 Thanks Ardell! This makes the data more inline with what is reported elsewhere that the peak of home values might be reached for this cycle. When looking at the sqft $1 buys you it can be seen that the low seems to be behind us. Period sqft / 1$ ----- -------- 04/05: 4.28 05-06: 3.53 06-07: 3.11 Escrow: 3.31 On sold: 3.35 I also suspect that the same $ might buy you a newer home today. Age segments would absolutely be interresting to see. Thanks Ardell!

This makes the data more inline with what is reported elsewhere that the peak of home values might be reached for this cycle. When looking at the sqft $1 buys you it can be seen that the low seems to be behind us.

Period sqft / 1$
—– ——–
04/05: 4.28
05-06: 3.53
06-07: 3.11
Escrow: 3.31
On sold: 3.35

I also suspect that the same $ might buy you a newer home today. Age segments would absolutely be interresting to see.

]]> By: ARDELL http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/25/why-are-sales-down-and-prices-up/#comment-218954 ARDELL Thu, 29 Nov 2007 16:41:15 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/2007/11/25/why-are-sales-down-and-prices-up/#comment-218954 One thing I did notice is that 04-05 included 100 condos that sold for less than $100,000. A price category that became non-existent in later years. I could not run an age of property median, but the square footage median indicated that the higher median sale price bought less and less each year on the sold properties. The square footage median of the properties not sold was higher than those sold. Properties sold in 04-05 for $800,000 or less and a median square footage of 1,612. In 05-06 the median price went up $50,000 and the median square footage decreased to 1,500. 06-07 the median went up $28,000 and the median square footage went down to 1,400. Currently in escrow up $20,000 as to median price but also up to 1,558 as to median square footage. The up to $1M chart about the same trend with 1,700, <strike>1,500, </strike>1560 and 1,526 on the sold properties from 04 to present. In escrows at 1,575 and not solds at 1,745. To Kary and Jim, the not solds are more square footage and pricier. So it doesn't seem it is the lower priced and smaller properties that are creating this result by not selling due to financing issues. Though I agree my perception might be the same, the stats don't seem to prove that theory out. tj, I can't do a median age. I can break the stats down into age segments though, for comparison purposes. Would that be worthwhile? Maybe ten year increments or built prior to 30, between 20 and 50, built in the 60s, and then ten year increments from there? One thing I did notice is that 04-05 included 100 condos that sold for less than $100,000. A price category that became non-existent in later years.

I could not run an age of property median, but the square footage median indicated that the higher median sale price bought less and less each year on the sold properties. The square footage median of the properties not sold was higher than those sold.

Properties sold in 04-05 for $800,000 or less and a median square footage of 1,612.

In 05-06 the median price went up $50,000 and the median square footage decreased to 1,500.

06-07 the median went up $28,000 and the median square footage went down to 1,400.

Currently in escrow up $20,000 as to median price but also up to 1,558 as to median square footage.

The up to $1M chart about the same trend with 1,700, 1,500, 1560 and 1,526 on the sold properties from 04 to present. In escrows at 1,575 and not solds at 1,745.

To Kary and Jim, the not solds are more square footage and pricier. So it doesn’t seem it is the lower priced and smaller properties that are creating this result by not selling due to financing issues. Though I agree my perception might be the same, the stats don’t seem to prove that theory out.

tj,

I can’t do a median age. I can break the stats down into age segments though, for comparison purposes. Would that be worthwhile? Maybe ten year increments or built prior to 30, between 20 and 50, built in the 60s, and then ten year increments from there?

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