Of the 2,967 condos sold in the last six months, only 42 of them were over a million dollars. I don’t base much of my market watch on what is happening in that small of a segment of the marketplace.

While there are 193 for sale in that price range at the moment, I pay more attention to the fact that there were only 7 buyers or sellers in King County per month, affected by what happens in that market.

When you say “If people can’t sell their condos to move up…” – are you saying moving from a condo to a house?

At the sub $1M mark I agree that young couples tend to move to houses once kids arrive, but in the $1M+ condo market I see many of these owners are moving from houses to condos.

What are you seeing?

I was told many years ago from someone much older and wiser than I, at the time, that if the condos don’t move well in the first two quarters, it will impact the single family market in the last two quarters. So let’s keep our eyes on that sobering condo stat of 38% down as to volume YOY.

There are many fewer buyers than sellers as you get up in the numbers. I calculated more than I posted.

19 condos priced for $2M or more sold in 2007. 54 are currently for sale.

198 single family homes sold in 2007 between $2M and $4M. 232 are currently for sale.

My theory is that the single family market is dependent somewhat on the condo market, with a lag time. So the relationship of condos being down YOY by 38% and the single family market down only 28.5% is of much interest to me. If people can’t sell their condos to move up, that fact will at some point translate into fewer and fewer single family home sales somewhere down the line.

That’s what I mean by “I blog while I work”. Though others may not see what I am seeing, I post the data so I can come back later and see how the 10% spread between condos and residential plays out. If I am correct, that 10% difference will impact single family by the end of this season…say September or year end.

I can do a strike out and half them if you like.

thanks for the clarification.

That appears to be a huge glut in the upper end of the market. Those price are going to have to come down big time.

Let’s take that first category of Residential less than $400,000.

Currently for sale is 2,902

Sold on a 12 month rolling basis from 3/11/07 through today is 8,183 divided by 12 equals 673 a month. 2,902 divided by 673 equals:

a 4.3 month supply; not an 11 month supply.

If you use “last year” as 2007 calendar year you get 8,783 sales divided by 12, or 731 a month. 2,902 divided by 731 equals:

a 3.96 supply; not an 11 month supply

I used the last six months to accommodate the market change in August/September. Though I would expect the next six months to be a little better than the last six months, primarly due to seasonal differences, I still think it’s the most accurate method.

total number of sales 3,174 divided by six is 529

2,902 divided by 529 equals a 5.48 month supply, which is probably about a 5 months supply given seasonal factors.

Unless that 11 at the end of yours isn’t a # of month’s to absorb current inventory… If it is, I don’t see how you could get a number like that from the data unless you are comparing apples to oranges somehow. Are you sure you aren’t including condos in the inventory number and then excluding them from the sold number? That might account for the difference.

LT $400k: 115.5
$400-6005: 136.5
$600-800k: 19 9.5
$800k- 1mm: 22 11
$1mm – 2mm: 29 14.5

That seem right to you? Pretty sobering figures versus just looking at monthly absorption rates.