So it looks like it is not a seasonal thing and that it does point to appreciation in 06, some appreciation or stagnation in 07 and declines in 08. This is consistent with other indexes like Case-Shiller. It seems that following the asking/closed gap does let you see what the rate of appreciation/depreciation for an area is trending in real time. Very cool stuff!

That kind of transfer would still be a Warranty Deed usually or a Quit Claim. This was a Sale Contract of some kind…maybe an installment “land contract”.

Could have been sold from one family member to another in which case the difference between the sale price and market value is gifted. Just my 2 pesos.

My basic thinking is that points south are affected more than Eastside and points north. Kirkland as a whole incorporates the expensive waterfront and less expensive Totem Lake, Kingsgate and Juanita areas, so no as to the 98144 question.

98144 doesn’t have enough volume of sales to find meaning in the numbers after the volume hit. Only 18 sales in the 08 period.

Here are 98144 and Federal Way

2006 asking 355,000 sold at 356,000
2007 asking 400,000 sold at 410,000
2008 asking 277,000 sold at 380,000

When the volume is only 18 sales, one property reacting abnormally could affect the value of the data.

I use the areas I am most familiar with so that if people have questions I am answering from a position of experience vs. simply pure data. I throw in some points south as it is my perception that when you look at King County as a whole, you have to factor in the huge variance of market influence in different parts of the County. The forest doesn’t tell you enough about the trees. And people buy and sell “trees” not “forests”.

Federal Way:

2006 asking $294,925 sold at $292,225 DOM 33
2007 asking $320,000 sold at $325,000 DOM 38
2008 asking $299,000 sold at $295,749 DOM 84

The lowest of price ranges:

1) would have had more predatory lending issues
2) would have had the most zero down stacked cost loans
3) will have the greatest impact after tightening lending guidelines

My theory is that from 9/07 through the end of 2008, the lowest price ranges and the highest price ranges will be hit the hardest. So far my numbers prove that out.

I think that will affect all price ranges across the board eventually, but in a lagging fashion. I think we already know what is happening in the over $1M market and $300,000 market. Watching the impact on the $500,000 to $600,000 market will tell us when those events have entered the mainstream market as to single family homes. That is why my interest lies in areas like 98007, 98008, 98115, 98103 and parts of Kirkland and Redmond.

When you get further south the prices are falling. My guess is there were more zero down stacked cost sales in the lower price ranges, so the elimination of easy financing has hit the lower priced areas harder. Same for condos in those same price ranges overall.

Kirkland:

2006 – asking $499,000 sold at $500,000 DOM 30
2007 – asking $575,000 sold at $569,950 DOM 63
2008 – asking $644,500 sold at $633,750 DOM 50

98115 and 98103 (Seattle)

2006 – asking $449,950 sold at $457,000 DOM 24
2007 – asking $499,475 sold at $499,475 DOM 37
2008 – asking $522,000 sold at $515,000 DOM 49

98007 and 98008 (Bellevue)

2006 – asking $462,999 sold at $462,999 DOM 21
2007 – asking $501,950 sold at $498,000 DOM 39
2008 – asking $549,950 sold at $525,000 DOM 51

Bellevue:

2006 – asking $550,000 sold at $557,000 DOM 23
2008 – asking $649,900 sold at $626,000 DOM 51

Seattle (all)

2006 – asking $399,950 sold at $405,500 DOM 25
2007 – asking $429,000 sold at $425,000 DOM 35
2008 – asking $449,950 sold at $440,000 DOM 50

Auburn:

2006 – asking $299,864 sold at $299,950 DOM 06
2007 – asking $349,900 sold at $349,900 DOM 67
2008 – asking $314,950 sold at $312,000 DOM 76

Kent:

2006 – asking $311,175 sold at $318,500 DOM 24
2007 – asking $354,973 sold at $360,000 DOM 49
2008 – asking $349,654 sold at $346,000 DOM 48