Comments on: Sunday Night Stats – King County, Seattle and Eastside http://raincityguide.com/2009/08/31/sunday-night-stats-king-county-seattle-and-eastside/ Seattle's Leading Resource for Real Estate Information Mon, 15 Mar 2010 05:32:06 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: ARDELL http://raincityguide.com/2009/08/31/sunday-night-stats-king-county-seattle-and-eastside/#comment-342842 ARDELL Tue, 01 Sep 2009 03:52:41 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/?p=7558#comment-342842 Jerry, One of the problems in a weak market is sellers look at their neighbors to determine price, but buyers look at what their money can buy in a much larger area. Rarely does a buyer look at the same geographic area when determining what to buy, as the seller does when determining an asking price. It's hard to impress on a seller (in some price ranges) that of the 300 people trying to sell in that price range, 100 will sell and 200 will not sell at all. It's a matter of whether or not it is going to be sold period...more than "at what price". In the $1M plus price range, there are clearly a lot more sellers than buyers. The competition is fierce. Jerry,

One of the problems in a weak market is sellers look at their neighbors to determine price, but buyers look at what their money can buy in a much larger area. Rarely does a buyer look at the same geographic area when determining what to buy, as the seller does when determining an asking price.

It’s hard to impress on a seller (in some price ranges) that of the 300 people trying to sell in that price range, 100 will sell and 200 will not sell at all. It’s a matter of whether or not it is going to be sold period…more than “at what price”. In the $1M plus price range, there are clearly a lot more sellers than buyers. The competition is fierce.

]]> By: Jerry Gropp Architect AIA http://raincityguide.com/2009/08/31/sunday-night-stats-king-county-seattle-and-eastside/#comment-342841 Jerry Gropp Architect AIA Tue, 01 Sep 2009 02:01:57 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/?p=7558#comment-342841 <strong>Here's what I think is the crux of the matter- as Ardell defines it above:</strong> "The remainder of the problem is likely that homes are just <strong>overpriced</strong>, and buyers are getting much better at finding <strong>true value</strong>, vs negoatiating off of list price. This is sending the 98033 buyers into 98034 for better values and larger and nicer homes for the money". Here’s what I think is the crux of the matter- as Ardell defines it above: “The remainder of the problem is likely that homes are just overpriced, and buyers are getting much better at finding true value, vs negoatiating off of list price. This is sending the 98033 buyers into 98034 for better values and larger and nicer homes for the money”.

]]> By: ARDELL http://raincityguide.com/2009/08/31/sunday-night-stats-king-county-seattle-and-eastside/#comment-342837 ARDELL Mon, 31 Aug 2009 15:55:36 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/?p=7558#comment-342837 "I believe the real story regarding the health of our real estate market has less to do with the number of sales and more to do with the overall “value” of our neighborhoods..." Not so James...recovery is all about volume...the number of buyers vs. sellers at any given time... Shadow inventory will be the wild card... Agents are losing the battle at being "the keepers of value". Any agent who is working from historical perspective will be left in the dust. “I believe the real story regarding the health of our real estate market has less to do with the number of sales and more to do with the overall “value” of our neighborhoods…”

Not so James…recovery is all about volume…the number of buyers vs. sellers at any given time…

Shadow inventory will be the wild card… Agents are losing the battle at being “the keepers of value”. Any agent who is working from historical perspective will be left in the dust.

]]> By: ARDELL http://raincityguide.com/2009/08/31/sunday-night-stats-king-county-seattle-and-eastside/#comment-342836 ARDELL Mon, 31 Aug 2009 15:54:00 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/?p=7558#comment-342836 James, Those lower tax assessments are not the exception, they are the norm. It's a County decision to cut back on the labor intensive appeal process. It will not result in lower taxes nor is it reflective of true value changes. Tax values are too close to market value in 2009, closer than they are supposed to be. We should be running at sale price 1.3 times assesseed value...not 1.03 or .90 times assessed value. The cost of appeals is not worth riding that line too closely for the County. The factor will move back to 2004 levels in 2010. My best guess is 1.2 to 1.3...won't know for sure until we get there...but I'm pretty good at educated guesses. James,

Those lower tax assessments are not the exception, they are the norm. It’s a County decision to cut back on the labor intensive appeal process. It will not result in lower taxes nor is it reflective of true value changes.

Tax values are too close to market value in 2009, closer than they are supposed to be. We should be running at sale price 1.3 times assesseed value…not 1.03 or .90 times assessed value. The cost of appeals is not worth riding that line too closely for the County.

The factor will move back to 2004 levels in 2010. My best guess is 1.2 to 1.3…won’t know for sure until we get there…but I’m pretty good at educated guesses.

]]> By: James Lupori http://raincityguide.com/2009/08/31/sunday-night-stats-king-county-seattle-and-eastside/#comment-342835 James Lupori Mon, 31 Aug 2009 15:44:31 +0000 http://raincityguide.com/?p=7558#comment-342835 Hi Ardell - Interesting post. Thanks. I believe the real story regarding the health of our real estate market has less to do with the number of sales and more to do with the overall "value" of our neighborhoods. Here in Kenmore, my neighbors are complaining that several short-sales have eroded years of home equity and, if one looks at his/her tax assessment for 2010 in King Co. (I'm sure there are exceptions), the property values have dropped (a lot......). If one is an optimistic broker or busy short-sale real estate agent these days, things are looking up. If one is a bubble-head, it's the dawning of the age of terminal renting. It will be interesting to see what the market looks like by the end of this year. Hi Ardell – Interesting post. Thanks. I believe the real story regarding the health of our real estate market has less to do with the number of sales and more to do with the overall “value” of our neighborhoods. Here in Kenmore, my neighbors are complaining that several short-sales have eroded years of home equity and, if one looks at his/her tax assessment for 2010 in King Co. (I’m sure there are exceptions), the property values have dropped (a lot……). If one is an optimistic broker or busy short-sale real estate agent these days, things are looking up. If one is a bubble-head, it’s the dawning of the age of terminal renting. It will be interesting to see what the market looks like by the end of this year.

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