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Name: Greg Perry
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Member since: 2009-02-16 02:39:17
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My "Talking" Good Faith Estimate

July 4th, 2009 at 11:53 am

Thanks, Rhonda,
As you know I’m an avid eyejot user. I often attach documents of all kinds and explain them with eyejot video email. I’ll explore the jing application.

Zillow Blog:Tim Geithner says Rent vs. Sell

June 3rd, 2009 at 1:07 pm

Different areas of the country will recover in different times.

The timing of whether to buy and or sell is a very individual issue, compounded by many influences.

I agree with David G. Let’s ask him. The only way we’ll know what he was thinking.

Zillow Blog:Tim Geithner says Rent vs. Sell

June 3rd, 2009 at 11:40 am

Or maybe he’s just an unrealistic seller who won’t listen to a good agent.

Or maybe he doesn’t have enough equity at this time to sell for market conditions because of a refi to pay his IRS tax bill.

Top 3 Mistakes Home Buyers Make

April 16th, 2009 at 5:06 pm

Ardell, nobody has comment on your original artwork, so I will! Well done!

JBA Financial Group: Get Licensed or Get Out of Washington State

April 15th, 2009 at 9:54 pm

Kudos Jillayne,
One of the most interesting, entertaining and effective real estate blog posts I’ve read in a long, long time (and this includes the ones I wrote!)

Sunday Night Stats - Bottom's UP

April 13th, 2009 at 12:01 pm

In addition, a large number of the attempted short sales fell apart. Short sales actually seem sticking better now, as well. As Ardell pointed out, pending fallout is difficult to quantify with a hard number.

Sunday Night Stats - Bottom's UP

April 13th, 2009 at 7:32 am

Hi Ardell,
The market is clearly moving. Pending had been slowly rising, and then jumped significantly in the last two weeks.

For the week, the metro areas 380,385,390,700,705,710,715,720 had 30 more pendings (161 vs. 131) than the same week in 2007 (a fast seller’s market — the market shifted dramatically in the 3rd quarter of 2007)

Eastside pendings are also strong and all Eastside areas are absorbing inventory in the lower price ranges. Sales virtually stop at $700,000. High end home sales continue to be somewhat abysmal.

It is clear that there has been a significant jump in buyer confidence and they are out buying homes.

To see a detailed analysis: http://www.workingforyou.typepad.com//realestate/2009/04/king-county-incity-and-eastside-pending-real-estate-sales-rising.html

I believe we’ll continue to have buyer confidence as long as we don’t go through another round of economic crisis talk like we faced in Sept 2008 and again in Jan/Feb.

An interesting thing to watch is inventory price compression. As I mentioned, virtually everything being sold is under $700. As area and regional prices are the mid point between high and low, and we have anemic high end sales, area medians will continue to erode. However, with continued absorption, the low end WILL stabilize and start to rise in price, yet we’re seeing formerly $3mil homes drop to $2-2.5 mil. The eastside has over 1,000 homes priced over $1mil alone. So I believe we’ll see the most affordable homes start to rise in price and the high end to continue to erode.

Also, I think we’ll have to maintain a fairly high rate of pendings before we significantly absorb the pent up SELLER SUPPLY DEMAND (those sellers who really want to sell but feel stuck renting their property or staying put). For this reason, prices in the most affordable houses should experience a period of time in stability before they start to rise significantly, but they will rise once inventory truly absorbs.

The rate of short sales and bank foreclosures will slow down as the government and banks will be aggressive pushing loan mods. We will also experience new construction sell through. The thousands of small builders are gone. The big boys will need time to get the next wave ready for market. At the current rate of sale, we’ll be running out of NC homes in 9-12 months. I believe the rate of NC sales will increase as buyers are out AND the banks and builders are pushing unbelievable loan interest rate buy downs.

Medians are generally considered a good market indicator. Focusing too much on regional and area general median prices could be a big mistake in this market. This is the most polarized market we have seen in recent years. I do not foresee anything changing anemic rate of sale in the high end anytime soon.

The first time buyers will lead the recovery. They are starting to come out with confidence.

Will First Time Buyers Bring It Home For Seattle……

March 25th, 2009 at 9:01 pm

b.
Another thing to think about. Once new construction absorbs, and it is starting to absorb rapidly in areas, the only homes left will be the resales. It will be 2-3 YEARS before the next decent wave of NC homes are available as builders have by and large stopped buying dirt.

Again, it comes down to absorption and sales ratios. Prices in the different areas/neighborhoods and price ranges all respond differently. We’ll see in a couple of months, but I like the trend I’m seeing in post 10, and I watch sales ratios carefully by area/neighborhood/price for all of KC. I am already seeing sellers advantaged markets emerging in the core area, lower price points.

Will First Time Buyers Bring It Home For Seattle……

March 25th, 2009 at 8:26 pm

b
As the rate of sale (supply/demand) falls, prices will soften. As the rate of sale tightens, prices will stabilize. If they further tighten, prices will rise.

You stated that prices WILL fall more than 2% in the next month and called first time buyers in this market stupid.

Are you tracking demand/supply ratios. Different areas and price ranges have radically different sales ratios. The fact is, in city sales ratios for homes under $500,000 are tightening.

When we look at equity rates rise and fall we’re looking at the broad market. The top end may fall 10%. Under $400k may be stable or even rising…..depending on the neighborhood/area.

You are correct in that interest rates do have effect the supply demand ratios. One of the reasons that homes are starting to move and supply is tightening is mortgage interest rates are incredibly attractive. In fact, they are at all time historical lows, which creates increased affordability.

That being said, the general rule is when interest rates go up one point, it affects affordability 10 percent. In other words you can buy a $300,000 for the same payment as a $270,00.

So, now for first time buyers, that $8,000 tax credit should look very enticing.

Prices have already considerably moved off the high water marks of 2 years ago. Currently buyers can shop. Sellers know that buyers have the advantage and have more motivation to negotiate and concede price and terms. Buyers have the opportunity to lock into a 30 year mortgage with 5% or less interest rate.

I wouldn’t exactly call that a stupid.

Will First Time Buyers Bring It Home For Seattle……

March 25th, 2009 at 7:24 pm

b
You say its likely that homes will fall more than 2% in the next month. What area / neighborhood are you talking about? What price range? ……and what happens to affordability if interest rates go up 1 or 2 points from the historical ALL TIME LOW rates being offered?

Thanks for the PENDINGS, Julie. Interesting weekly trend

Will First Time Buyers Bring It Home For Seattle……

March 25th, 2009 at 5:19 pm

Courtney,
Most of the current CLOSED sales went under contract 4-5 weeks ago. I think if you looked at PENDINGS for the same period this year vs. last year you would get a better read on the effect of the stimulus.

Sunday Night Stats - Prices Improving?

March 17th, 2009 at 10:18 am

Ardell, I believe you are correct. Activity is on the upswing.

The most important stats to watch right now are supply /demand ratios. Lower end housing is starting to tighten, especially in the core areas. Top end is still abysmal. As the supply tightens, prices will stabilize.

Make no mistake. Recovery will come with first time buyers. In this region we are looking at anything under $600K. These purchases will free up Sellers to make their relocation move or their move up purchase.

Here is a list of things that have happened in the last 4 weeks:
1. $8,000 Tax Credit
2. Raise of conforming loan limits
3. Jumbo rates falling to <5% in certain banks
4. Local banks flush with money becoming very aggressive with their builders creating buy down programs. Currently buy down programs with some builders are starting as low as 3.75% on arms and under 5 percent on 30 year fixed up to $1,000,000.
5. Fannie Mae forbids lenders to reduce real estate commissions in short sales on their loans.

Here is what we’re seeing ANECDOTALLY:
1. Title companies have been slammed with purchase title orders in the last two weeks.
2. First time buyers are starting to inquire about the tax credit.
3. Offers are being written all over the region.
4. Stories of multiple offers are surfacing regularly.
5. We are hearing strong rumors that Down Payment Assistance Programs (Nehemiah) are coming back. This will particularly assist builders.

In short, interest rates are at all time lows. Jumbo interest rates are falling. Homes are on sale. There is plenty of selection. Seller motivation is currently high. The government is supplying an $8,000 tax credit.

Like it or hate it, the Government is pretty much “all in” with their investments in Fannie, Freddie and the banks. I think they will do what it takes in the short term to get things moving.

Mortgage Interest Tax Deduction Limits, What Would Happen if Rents Cliff Dive, the Black Hole that is AIG, and Bank Nationalization

February 28th, 2009 at 7:52 am

Yet, nobody is talking about the big lie.

Before a national audience before Congress, Obama railed, “If you earn less than $250,000 your taxes will not go up ONE DIME. NOT ONE DIME.”

The new home deduction take away plan starts at $208,000.

Hmmm. this plan came out the day after the big promise.

Now everyone wants to gang up on wage earners who earn over $250,000. First of all keep in mind, the $250K is for a dual income household. Second, $250,000 wage earners are not rich. They are wage earner. Rich is really defined as accumulated wealth a high net worth.

So who are these $250,000 wage earners? The are among America’s most productive, hard-working citizens: our doctors, attorneys, architects, and entrepreneurs, the owners and builders of cleaning companies, delis and security franchises. These wage earners are the group that employ workers in America.

Currently the top 1% pay 40% of the freight now. Here are 2006 figures from the IRS:

Percentiles Ranked by AGI
AGI Threshold on Percentiles
Percentage of Federal Personal Income Tax Paid

Top 1%
$388,806
39.89

Top 5%
$153,542
60.14

Top 10%
$108,904
70.79

Top 25%
$64,702
86.27

Top 50%
$31,987
97.01

Bottom 50%
<$31,987
2.99

Note: AGI is Adjusted Gross Income
Source: Internal Revenue Service

With current spending, it has been estimated that if the over $250,000 gave 100% of their income to the government, the new projected deficits would not be reduced.

Should the rich pay more. The truly wealthy, yes. But the government needs to tread carefully on the WAGE EARNER, who is the person creating small business and much needed jobs. Tax this guy in a recession, and we’ll see jobs creation halt and jobs go away.