Will First Time Buyers Bring It Home For Seattle……

The final amount of the $8000 tax credit was pretty disappointing after all of the anticipation for $15,0000, but surprisingly it seems to be generating interest among first time home buyers around the Seattle area. There were about thirty people through my Green Lake open house this last weekend, and while this area is known for its great traffic at open houses, the visitor count was still about twice of what was expected.Nine out of ten were first time home buyers and they were all asking about the tax credit for 2009.

In fact, most of the activity around Seattle last week was in the $500,000 and under price range.

A quick look at Seattle sales for the last week in the NWMLS (residential only) shows 50 closed sales in the city of Seattle. All but 13 of these were under $500,000. A look to lower priced suburbs just North of Seattle shows that all 20 of the closed residential sales in the last week for Lynnwood, Mountlake Terrace, and Shoreline combined were under $500,000 with a large majority hovering around the $300,000 mark. A look to the Eastside in Bellevue, Redmond, and Kirkland for the same period shows 27 closed residential sales with 18 of those in the $500,000 and under range.

Clearly, the $500,000 and under market is dominating the sales figures this last week, and if my last few open houses are any indication, first time home buyers are playing a major part or could be soon.

Is this really so different than last year with no $8000 tax credit?

Looking at a year ago for the same period there were three times as many sales in the city of Seattle: 150 closed sales in Seattle with 97 of them being under the $500,000 umbrella (44 of those sales were built in 2007 or after… a.k.a. new construction). In Lynnwood, Mountlake Terrace, and Shoreline combined there were a total of 24 closed sales and only 4 were over that amount. The real change is on the Eastside where out of 45 closed sales only 13 of them were driven by that lower market. The other 32 closings were over $500,000.

Except for the larger quantity of sales in Seattle and the Eastside and the flip flop of ratio of lower priced closed homes to higher priced closed homes for the Eastside, the data is strikingly similar as far as what price range dominates.

So will the $8000 tax credit stimulate first time home buyers in Seattle and drive our economy?

(Full Disclosure: The numbers gathered here were compiled by Courtney Cooper from data on residential sales only – including townhomes but not condos in the NWMLS)

A Little Beauty

Savannah Jane

Savannah Jane

This one was a born thinker 🙂  My Grandaughter.  I had the privelege of holding her minutes after she was born, and I could see the wheels turning. Wouldn’t you love to know what she’s thinking about?

ING Bank suing under RICO statutes to recover losses by alleged local real estate fraud ring.

Here is the article from the Seattle Times.

Excerpt:

In one deal, the bank loaned a borrower $935,000 to buy a Tacoma house for $1.35 million — a house that, according to the real-estate Web site Zillow, is valued higher than 99 percent of homes in its ZIP code. Nationwide Home Lending was paid nearly $30,000 in fees on that loan.

I’ve just dropped an entire commentary I wrote within this post regarding the fantasy idea some people believe that our local area is somewhat insulated from the garbage and degenerates destroying our markets and economy due to greed and fraud.

In essence, my post can be wrapped up in these questions:

  1. Ethically, is this industry too far gone to recover any resemblance of credibility, trust and moral foundation?
  2. How will the real estate brokers weed out the bad actors? We know DFI is going after loan officers and others.

Fortunately, I know and work with quite a few agents and loan officers who genuinely try to do their very best for their customers. Unfortunately, many of them and others who work in real estate are caught in the enormous wake of the problems the fraudsters have created.

DFI Interpretive Letter on Loan Modifications

DFI has released a first draft of an interpretive letter on loan modifications for Washington State.

DATE: March 10, 2009
FROM: Deborah Bortner, Director, Division of Consumer Services
RE: Loan Modification Services – License Required under the MBPA or CLA
QUESTION PRESENTED: Must loan modification service providers be licensed to offer services to Washington residents?
BRIEF ANSWER: Yes, under the Mortgage Broker Practices Act (MBPA), chapter 19.146 RCW, or Consumer Loan Act (CLA), chapter 31.04 RCW.
DISCUSSION: The Division has received many inquiries regarding the applicability of the MBPA or CLA to loan modification services. According to callers, individuals are communicating directly with borrowers and lenders in order to negotiate loan modifications. In most of the calls, the caller inquires as to what restrictions are applicable to loan modification services.
For purposes of this Interpretive Statement, “loan modification

What a difference a day makes

It was a gorgeous, sunny, blue sky day today!  The forecast looks like three days of sunshine and 50 plus degrees on Thursday.

Yesterday…taken at Sixty-01 in Redmond, WA. did someone say only 10 days until Spring?  We almost put the Christmas Tree back up for the day.

Taken March 9, 2009 at Sixty-01 in Redmond, WA

Taken March 9, 2009 at Sixty-01 in Redmond, WA

When will we reach the bottom?

Ardell called “We’re at the bottom…” in her post February 7th, 2009. We each have our idea of what the bottom is and in her area maybe we are at the bottom.  From a macro stand point, I feel we are far from the bottom. As I said in my comment to Ardell, I believe the bottom will be reached when an investor could come in and buy a home and receive about a 7% return on investment from  rents.

I am not claiming THIS will be a great time to become an investor, I am saying when someone can come in, buy a house at a price and then rent out that same house and receive a 7%(ish) return the bottom will be in sight.  As Ardell said, maybe that is in 2016, mayb not ever.

An EXTREME example of the bottom is being reached in Detroit as seen with investors coming in and buying up 1000s of houses at once. No matter what the economy is doing, everyone needs a place to stay.

Twitter: Is it for Twits or Twitteratti?

A week ago, I decided to finally sign up for a Twitter account and probably became the last person in Seattle to join. I’m still trying to figure out if it’s a revolutionary new communication medium or merely the CB radio of the early 21st century (to be honest, I haven’t yet decided what Twitter is yet). I think one MSNBC writer summed it up nicely quite nicely, when she stated Twitter is the Snuggie of social networking. I’m not sure if Twitter is truly useful, but there is no denying it’s the hot thing at the moment.

After all, if the Washington State Department of Transportation has multiple twitter account to broadcast updates on mountain passes and Seattle area traffic events. Many of the local TV news networks & anchors have twitter accounts (Jenni Hogan, Bill Wixey, Jesse Jones, & KOMO news are all there). If that wasn’t enough chatter, even the U.S. President is on Twitter (although he doesn’t tweet now that he’s a President instead of a candidate). Heck, even Senator John McCain is on Twitter. I think Twitter hype hit all time this week, when Google’s CEO declared Twitter A ‘Poor Man’s Email System‘ and the geeky gurus in Silicon Alley are ready to anoint Twitter the new Google killer. Ironically, Twitter has proven itself as a great tool for breaking news about gmail outages and down time.

It’s all very interesting, but is it useful? Well, since I’ve been on Twitter, I’ve discovered lots of interesting blog posts & new articles on topics of interest. I’ve learned that tinyurl.com is bloated compared to tr.im. I’ve even played with the Twitter APIs and tweeted myself. But, I’m still perplexed on what the best way of using this new social networking tool in my arsenal?

For example, would potential home buyers / sellers prefer to get updates on market changes via Tweets instead of e-mail messages, text messages, or RSS feeds? If so, should you be sending direct messages to your clients? (which seems like a poor man’s e-mail system to me). I suppose one could update their status, but if one updates their status every 10 minutes every time a new listing hits the market, one’s followers would probably get follower fatigue.

Suppose you have multiple clients, and that they all want the same information, should you create an account that they all follow instead of direct messages to each? What if you multiple clients that want different information, should you create multiple Twitter accounts, each of which publishes a certain information type (say homes in Redmond, Medina mansions, or condos in Renton)?

Of course, if that becomes popular then Twitter account names may become as valuable and as scarce as internet domain names are today? (BTW – SeattleHomes is already taken, although it doesn’t have any followers yet). Perhaps, everybody will use url shortening services like is.gd instead of domain names, SEO & names/brands of the actual twitter account won’t matter?

I’m not sure I’ll shake my fist at Twitter, like Jon Stewart did but I can’t help but wonder if micro-blogging, will beget a generation of people who can only communicate in phrases of 140 characters or less. I’m already growing nostalgic for thoughtful articles written by people in the news industry. Maybe I just need to read more NikNik & Tyr until I get it?

Perhaps, Twitter is best used to convey the daily minutiae our digital lives to interested parties and shouldn’t be taken seriously? In any event, I’m enjoying my time tweeting (or is it twittering?) like everybody else apparently is.

Homebuyer Credit – Simplified

Pretty simple stuff. For most people it’s just A,B,C + 1,2,3
A. Address of New Home
B. Date you bought it
C. IF claiming 2009 purchase on this 2008 form, check here
+
1. Enter $7,500 or $8,000 unless married filing separately
2. Enter modified adjusted gross income
3. If 2 is not more than $75,000 ($150,000 if filing jointly), skip to line 6 and put amount on line 1 on line 6.  Ta-dah!
You can get Form 5405 and Instructions here:
and it looks like this:

Form 5405 First-Time Homebuyer Credit

Dow dips below 7,000

It’s an historic event that takes us back to 1997.  Below is a chart showing the history of the DJIA from 1929 to present, courtesy of msn money central. the first thing I look at every morning when I wake up.

When I started working in 1972, the Dow was at about 950.  When I switched to real estate in 1990, the Dow was just under 3,000.  It’s interesting to read some of the rationalizations of the 2002 low point. 

Dow Jones Industrial Average History

Dow Jones Industrial Average History

Dow Jones Industrial Average 10 year

Dow Jones Industrial Average 10 year

 

“The ‘game changer’ will be the housing market, and whether (or not) it can stablilize”