Sunday Night Stats

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Last week when everyone was talking about median price being down in August, it seemed to me that median prices is generally down in August…or at least flat.  The graph shows the relationship in median price for 2005 through present from June through year end.  It may give you an idea of what to expect to happen to prices for the balance of 2008. I also find the nexus points fascinating and the 2005 vs the three years following to be very interesting.  Hope you do as well.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As usual, I calculated these myself.  We expect the YOY volume paths to cross eventually.  But I doubt that is going to happen this year.  The spread will become narrower beginning at the end of September.  But there will still be a spread, I think.

For these grapsh I combined condos with SFR because over this 4 year period, tracking what buyers are doing is more important than whether they chose a condo or a single family residence. 

During this period we saw many choosing condos vs. SFR because they could not afford SFR.  Now we are seeing the reverse with SFR prices getting lower than townhome prices.  That is putting pressure on townhomes to be cheaper to compete with the single family home market.  During swings from condo to SFR and vice versa, it is best to combine them to see total buyer activity and trends.

Required Disclosre: Data not compiled, posted or verified by NWMLS

52% Appreciation in Kirkland This Year???

This is fun.  Just got my new Tax Assessment, and like Robbie, I am clearly puzzled.  Robbie’s Total Assessment went up 10% and he freaked out.  Well Robbie, my total assessment went up 40.6% this year.  NOW let’s talk about the Attack of the Killer Assessments.

Land – Old Value $376,000  – New Value $510,000 – UP 35%

Bldg. – Old Value $167,000 – New Value $254,000 – UP 52%

Nope, no major remodel.  No permits pulled for improvements that I know of except maybe fixing a shower in the basement.

According to Zillow there’s been a drop of about 3.5% in value in 98033 during the same period. 

Clearly a 40% PLUS increase in value is not about appreciation.  Since I am from the Era of Respecting Authority, I think the County has a really, really good reason for what just happened, and i think they are correct.  I want to know what that reason is, of course.  But my guess is that they know what they are doing, and they will give me a valid explanation.

Now…let’s talk about Seller Disclosure for a minute.

If you are buying a property, be sure to ASK the seller if he has his new assessment for 2009.  No, I’ve never seen seller’s disclosing that.  There is no place on the Seller Disclosure Form or MLS Input Sheet to disclose that.  I don’t think a reasonable annual increase needs to be disclosed necessarily.

But if based on opening my mail this morning, I have learned that the taxes are going to increase by 40.6%, don’t you think I SHOULD disclose that?  Most sellers would feel disadvantaged because “no one else is doing that”.  My home has been on market for about 25 days saying the taxes are $4,805.  While what I received in the mail says nothing about a change in the tax amount to be charged, given what it does say it looks like that $4,805 is going to be $6,755 in 2009.

Clearly there’s more to this story than meets the eye.  If anyone knows a reason why the assessment would go up 52% on my house and 35% on my land this year…I’d love to hear it.

RightTimetoBuy.Org

I just saw a scary commercial.  It went by pretty quickly and I was just walking by the TV, but this is what I think I saw.

A woman holding a microphone saying it’s maybe not a good time to buy. (perhaps a media facsimile)

A perky young woman who said that wasn’t true and she found out it was a good time to buy at “RightTimeToBuy.Org” and had just made her first home purchase.

Then the garden guy popped his head in “sisco?” and told everyone to go to RightTimeToBuy.Org

Who is behind this site?  It’s made to look very generic like a Public Service Announcement of some kind.  But who paid for the commercial on TV? 

“RightTimetoBuy.org is a free resource to educate, encourage and empower people who are thinking about buying a home. We don’t sell any financial or real estate products or services, all information is free and we don’t accept payment from anyone to be mentioned on our site.  We accept information from a variety of credible sources.”  I love that last line.  I see no links to SeattleBubble.com 🙂

Then it lists a bunch of real estate companies, a testimonial about a RE/MAX agent and something to do with a homebuilders association.  If this is backed by people who do “sell…financial or real estate products or services”, or is an advertising site for that purpose, is it OK to make it look like it isn’t a biased site?

If anyone else sees this commercial or knows anything about this site, can you give me your take on it?  I’d appreciate it.

Sunday Night Stats – King County

We’re just past the halfway point on the third quarter, and condo prices are getting much lower.  Unless we see a major change in the next 5 to 6 weeks, the MPPSF is showing down over 11% from peak At $274 vs. $311.  Not a big surprise, as pending stats have been low, so it was only a matter of time before those low numbers in pending status started showing up in the closed sales.  Still I wouldn’t be surprised if they bounce up a little by the end of the 3rd Quarter.

Inventory is getting pretty darned flat.  For condos the number of properties for sale hasn’t changed much since May.  3rd week of August – 4,082, July 3,958, June 4,049, May 3,953.  Pretty much flat for four months in a row.

I’m not even going to talk about pending sales as there is so much junk stuck in there and not closing.  For now I’m not counting anything until it actually closes.

King County Condos

2004 – 1Q – 1,694 – $188, 2Q 2,636 – $199, 3Q 2,540 – $196, 4Q 2,176 – $195

2005 – 1Q – 2,066 – $198, 2Q 2,925 – $209, 3Q 2,769 – $226, 4Q 2,266 – $224

2006 – 1Q – 1,956 – $242, 2Q 2.748 – $252, 3Q 2,737 – $269, 4Q 2,217 – $278

2007 – 1Q – 2,042 – $295, 2Q 2,862 – $302, 3Q 2,676 – $311, 4Q 1,618 – $294

2008 – 1Q – 1,258 – $299, 2Q 1,535 – $287, 3Q to date 685 – $274

Residential properties seem to be holding on to value a little better than condos, but still showing more weakness now than they have since late last year.  MPPSF is only down 5% – 6% from the peak of $230 to current numbers of $217, and we may not see much of a change in those numbers by the end of the 3rd quarter.

Inventory in the single family markets has flattened out a bit, but only in the last 30 days or so.  Some of that is being caused by people renting instead of selling or pulling their properties off market to wait for next Spring.

Residential King county

2004 – 1Q 5,650 – $152, 2Q 9,237 – $160, 3Q 8.737 – $163, 4Q 7,467 – $165

2005 – 1Q 6,402 – $173, 2Q 9,093 – $185, 3Q 9,131 – $192, 4Q 7,301 – $195

2006 – 1Q 5,596 – $201, 2Q 8,248 – $214, 3Q 7,771 – $216, 4Q 6,204 – $217

2007 – 1Q 5,304 – $222, 2Q 7,393 – $230, 3Q 7,944 – $229, 4Q 4,301 – $221

2008 – 1Q 3,640 – $219, 2Q 4,676 – $220, 3Q to date 2,366 – $217

Stats not compiled or published by NWMLS. (Required disclosure)

As is true most years, the prices will start to be better for buyers from now through year end.  In the hot markets of the past few years, that only meant that appreciation would slow down.  But this year and last year, the prices just kept getting better and better…for buyers that is.  If you can wait a year or two, I think prices will be even lower.  But if you plan to buy in the next 6-9 months…the next 3 may be better than waiting just a few months longer.

Watching trends in the daily market watch of the MLS

I’ve been keeping an eye on some of the daily trends in the MLS and have noticed for several weeks now that price reductions have now outnumbered new listings on an almost daily basis.  In past years, when almost all houses were selling fairly quickly, we noticed that a small percentage of houses required drops and there was usually a decent number increasing their prices.

Now, it seems that as days on market have increased for many sellers we are finally getting that reality check in place that was needed.  Granted, it does seem that the majority of these price drops are in the outlying areas of our MLS region, but the inner-city urban spots are not without their own new reality.

What I like right now is that we’re getting a nice balance of buyer and seller activity, which, for my own personal business/team, means that we’re likely going to be growing our business over the next year or more with some very nice results.

Tami Michaels re Mayor Nickels & Multi-Family Design Standards

Home Improvement Radio Expert Seattle 770 KTTHTomorrow morning, Saturday July 26th, at 11:00 a.m., a representative of the Seattle Mayor’s Office will be On Air with Tami Michaels.  The show will be devoted to Mayor Nickels proposed changes to multi-family zoned construction (original announcement from the Mayor’s Office).

And more details about Tami’s show tomorrow here.

Tami called me before I left for Inman Connect to discuss this topic, specifically with regard to regulations that could increase costs for builders and consumers at a time when the housing market is weakening.  The discussion led to the age old question “Can government dictate taste in housing style?”

I have had many discussions over the years with various municipalities regarding this topic, and they all hinge on this quote from City Councilmember, Sally Clark “The mayor and I have both heard a lot lately about how growth is affecting our neighborhoods, not all of it is positive…”

Over the span of my 18 plus years in real estate in various places on both Coasts, I have become involved with this issue from time to time, and EVERY time it boils down to nothing happening except a bunch of controversy with little to no satisfactory result.  I have been to several “town meetings” where everyone who was griping was invited to attend and participate in discussions to improve whatever everyone “wanted” or was griping about.  Each time what became apparent as a result of these meetings is that you can never get everyone to agree, and sometimes you can’t even get people to attend the meetings!!!  It’s one thing to hang around griping about change, it’s quite another to be asked to get involved in a viable solution.

So I ask anyone who thinks they might have something to add to the discussion regarding proposed changes to multi-family zoned building projects in Seattle, to head on over to Tami Michaels’ post and add a comment.  I’m going to listen to tomorrow’s radio show and gather more info before commenting.  Maybe you would like Free Flushes to become mandatory…maybe not.

Anyone involved in Seattle Real Estate, or residents who have something to add about townhomes or the proposal in general, should tune in tomorrow at 11:00. “The changes would affect the 10 percent of the city zoned for multifamily construction, from low-rise development throughout the city to high-rise residential towers on First Hill. The change is heralded by the Mayor’s Office as “… the first major update to multifamily zoning in Seattle in 20 years.”

Don’t let a once in 20 years change pass by, without at least craning your neck to take a peek at what it’s all about.

Rain City Radio: A West Seattle Story

I really enjoyed today’s conversation with Tracy Records of the West Seattle Blog.  Tracy shared a ton of great stories with us and I learned a ton…

Click here to listen to the entire interview!

And below are some links to some of the things we discussed:

We covered a lot of great topics in the interview including her perspective on the elements of the media that has fundamentally changed.  As someone with 25 years experience in the traditional media space AND a successful local blogger, her perspective was fascinating!

Click here to listen to the entire interview!

*Note: If you’re wondering why this post looks different then when it was originally published, I didn’t like the outline that I originally provided, so I changed it around a bunch.

A West Seattle Conversation!

Screenshot from the West Seattle Blog

I’m extremely excited about tomorrow’s Rain City conversation!

I invite the entire RCG community to join us at 4pm on Tuesday for a conversation with Tracy Record, the local community expert who runs the West Seattle blog.

My plan is to talk with her about the vibe of West Seattle, what’s she’s learned running the blog and what some of her favorite neighborhood places.  In addition, I’ll open up the phone lines to YOU so please come with your questions for this person behind this wonderful local resource!

If you’d like to join the conversation, then please consider calling in.   All the details on our the Rain City conversation page of Talkshoe!

And to answer the most common question from last week: You can listen into the conversation by calling in using ANY phone… However, if you want to get on-the-air, then it really helps me if you log into TalkShoe so that you can ping me in the chat room when you have a question or comment! Again, all the details (and there aren’t many) are on the Rain City conversation page of Talkshoe!

By the way, I’ll announce our guest for next week’s show tomorrow on the show!   I have a feeling that this series of podcasts are going to turn into something really special so set aside 4pm on Tuesdays so you can always take part!   And if you haven’t tried taking part in a group podcast yet, I highly recommend logging into this show.  You might be surprised just how much you enjoy it!

UPDATE: You can listen to this interview by clicking here or going to the post where I outlined the interview about with Tracy from the West Seattle blog

8 New Seattle Neighborhood Blogs Added to Neighborhood Round-Up

Since my last Neighborhood Round-Up, we have 8 new Neighborhood blogs added to the Rain City Guide Blogroll.  When I go through the existing blogroll reading the neighborhood blogs, I am always looking at their blogrolls to find new ones to add to RCG.  Two weeks ago I emailed Dustin the most recent ones I found, and he added them…did ya notice? 

So I want to introduce our 8 new Neighborhood blogs, please welcome….

Over at My Ballard , the struggle to FREE Ballard from 101 years of oppression is being marked with a free prize at Archie McPhee…just say the Secret Word!   

Moving to Southeast Seattle, The Rainier Valley Post announces all (it’s quite a list!) the fresh goodness now at the Columbia City Farmers Market.  

Central District News reports that a CD P-Patch will soon be growing from a vacant lot. 

 A Tree Grows in Capitol Hill…8 Block Walk is worried about a favorite Pocket Park tree. 

How to bike to work from an island…photo essay from Surrounded By Water: A Mercer Island Blog 

At The South Lake you can make your mark on a poll…”Do you pay to ride the S.L.U.T.?” 

cap to the hill reveals a secret place…joe’s bar…to spend some time.  

inBelltown …well, “it’s currently down while we undergo maintenance.  We’ll be back online soon!”…is missing it’s RCG debut! 

New Seattle Neighborhood Blogs….  Welcome to the Rain City Guide Blogroll!

Seattle Neighborhood Round-Up

The weather is warming and so are the Seattle neighborhoods….

Issaquah Undressed asks: 50 to 80 in a day?   More changes happening on Beach Drive Blog.

Get your “Spring Cleaning” in gear for CHS Capitol Hill Seattle and The Garage Sale, and Miller Park Neighborhood Association announces neighborhood clean up this Saturday.

Capitol Hill Triangle and a favorite breakfast treat in a tiny cafe, and on Capitol Hill, the poster for this years’ Block Party! 

Captain Columbia City launches it’s new neighborhood personalities interviews, for more cinematic news…vote for your favorite “Movies on the Wall” at West Seattle Blog.   

Blogging Georgetown and the annual Georgetown Art and Garden Walk and Mid Beacon Hill is covering Georgetown and uncovering a new mural. 

It’s Farmers Market time again at Kirkland Weblog, and at the Outer limits: The Lake City Blog the Farmers Market is relocating. 

Broadway Seattle  bikes Broadway… The Wedgewood Blog … and the Rock Walk.   

Atop the Top: Queen Anne Highlights points out that a person can always learn something new about their neighborhood. Cosmo Seattle and new info on Denny Park. 

Pondering Fame and Infamy at One A Day -Mostly Seattle and lastly…Breaking News on Ballard Avenue!