2009 Conforming and Conforming Jumbo Loan Limits for Seattle Metro

Update April 9, 2009:  On February 23, 2009 FHFA announced that according to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, 2009 loan limits will be revised to the 2008 loan limits.  As of this update, we’re anticipating the higher revised limits to take place at any time (1-Unit for this area will return to $567,500).  FHA has all ready implemented the loan limit changes.   This serves as a reminder that any information on the internet regarding mortgages can be out dated in a fairly short amount of time.

This morning, the Federal Housing Finance Agency has announced the 2009 conforming and jumbo conforming loan limits for 2009.  The conforming loan limit will remain at $417,000.  The jumbo conforming was reduced to 115% of median home value from 125%, with the passage of HR 3221.   Based on the new lower estimated home values, the 2009 conforming jumbo limits for King, Snohomish and Pierce Counties are:

  • 1-Unit:  $506,000
  • 2-Unit:  $647,500
  • 3-Unit:  $783,000
  • 4-Unit:  $973,100

Some banks and lenders have all ready began to send notices that they will stop accepting locks for the 2008 conforming jumbo limits ($567,500 for 1-unit) effective later this month.    This is done so that once the loan is sold and closed to Fannie or Freddie, the loan limit is compliant.   (You may not have until the end of the year to take advantage of the $567,500 loan limit).

More to follow…including updated rates this afternoon.

Sunday Night Stats – Seattle Real Estate

Median price per square foot for condos sold is starting to fall below 4th quarter of 2006 numbers, and is down 11.8% from peak pricing. 

King County Condos

2004 – 1Q – 1,694 – $188, 2Q 2,636 – $199, 3Q 2,540 – $196, 4Q 2,176 – $195

2005 – 1Q – 2,066 – $198, 2Q 2,925 – $209, 3Q 2,769 – $226, 4Q 2,266 – $224

2006 – 1Q – 1,956 – $242, 2Q 2.748 – $252, 3Q 2,737 – $269, 4Q 2,217 – $278

2007 – 1Q – 2,042 – $295, 2Q 2,862 – $302, 3Q 2,676 – $311, 4Q 1,618 – $294

2008 – 1Q – 1,258 – $299, 2Q 1,535 – $287, 3Q to date 895 – *$274

 

Active Listings: 3,983 – DOWN 47 – median price $319,950 – MPPSF  asking $307 (Down $3) – DOM 67 (up 2)

In Escrow:  804 –  UP 10- median asking price $289,700  – MPPSF asking $291  – DOM – 53 (up 3)

Sold YTD :  3,710- UP 650 – median list price $289,000 – median sold price  $282,450 – MPPSF – $287 (down $2) DOM 49  

Residential King county

2004 – 1Q 5,650 – $152, 2Q 9,237 – $160, 3Q 8.737 – $163, 4Q 7,467 – $165

2005 – 1Q 6,402 – $173, 2Q 9,093 – $185, 3Q 9,131 – $192, 4Q 7,301 – $195

2006 – 1Q 5,596 – $201, 2Q 8,248 – $214, 3Q 7,771 – $216, 4Q 6,204 – $217

2007 – 1Q 5,304 – $222, 2Q 7,393 – $230, 3Q 7,944 – $229, 4Q 4,301 – $221

2008 – 1Q 3,640 – $219, 2Q 4,676 – $220, 3Q to date 3,106 – *$215

*Residential median price per square foot is down another $2 per square foot since I ran the numbers two weeks ago.  That brings prices back very close to where they were in the 2nd Quarter of 2006.

Some sigificant changes for property in escrow.

In Escrow: 2,429 – DOWN 139- median asking price $409,950 (down $10,000) – DOM 51 (up 3) – MPPSF $197 (down $7)

SOLD YTD: 11.451 –  Actively for sale 12,027 – DOWN 280

Sold Year to Date and currently for sale are getting very close.

 

Stats not compiled or published by NWMLS. (Required disclosure)

Sunday Night Stats – King County

We’re just past the halfway point on the third quarter, and condo prices are getting much lower.  Unless we see a major change in the next 5 to 6 weeks, the MPPSF is showing down over 11% from peak At $274 vs. $311.  Not a big surprise, as pending stats have been low, so it was only a matter of time before those low numbers in pending status started showing up in the closed sales.  Still I wouldn’t be surprised if they bounce up a little by the end of the 3rd Quarter.

Inventory is getting pretty darned flat.  For condos the number of properties for sale hasn’t changed much since May.  3rd week of August – 4,082, July 3,958, June 4,049, May 3,953.  Pretty much flat for four months in a row.

I’m not even going to talk about pending sales as there is so much junk stuck in there and not closing.  For now I’m not counting anything until it actually closes.

King County Condos

2004 – 1Q – 1,694 – $188, 2Q 2,636 – $199, 3Q 2,540 – $196, 4Q 2,176 – $195

2005 – 1Q – 2,066 – $198, 2Q 2,925 – $209, 3Q 2,769 – $226, 4Q 2,266 – $224

2006 – 1Q – 1,956 – $242, 2Q 2.748 – $252, 3Q 2,737 – $269, 4Q 2,217 – $278

2007 – 1Q – 2,042 – $295, 2Q 2,862 – $302, 3Q 2,676 – $311, 4Q 1,618 – $294

2008 – 1Q – 1,258 – $299, 2Q 1,535 – $287, 3Q to date 685 – $274

Residential properties seem to be holding on to value a little better than condos, but still showing more weakness now than they have since late last year.  MPPSF is only down 5% – 6% from the peak of $230 to current numbers of $217, and we may not see much of a change in those numbers by the end of the 3rd quarter.

Inventory in the single family markets has flattened out a bit, but only in the last 30 days or so.  Some of that is being caused by people renting instead of selling or pulling their properties off market to wait for next Spring.

Residential King county

2004 – 1Q 5,650 – $152, 2Q 9,237 – $160, 3Q 8.737 – $163, 4Q 7,467 – $165

2005 – 1Q 6,402 – $173, 2Q 9,093 – $185, 3Q 9,131 – $192, 4Q 7,301 – $195

2006 – 1Q 5,596 – $201, 2Q 8,248 – $214, 3Q 7,771 – $216, 4Q 6,204 – $217

2007 – 1Q 5,304 – $222, 2Q 7,393 – $230, 3Q 7,944 – $229, 4Q 4,301 – $221

2008 – 1Q 3,640 – $219, 2Q 4,676 – $220, 3Q to date 2,366 – $217

Stats not compiled or published by NWMLS. (Required disclosure)

As is true most years, the prices will start to be better for buyers from now through year end.  In the hot markets of the past few years, that only meant that appreciation would slow down.  But this year and last year, the prices just kept getting better and better…for buyers that is.  If you can wait a year or two, I think prices will be even lower.  But if you plan to buy in the next 6-9 months…the next 3 may be better than waiting just a few months longer.

Tracking Homebuyer Activity

Last week an agent said to me, “I have had the same 6 or 7 buyers and sellers for the last 4 months.”  Reminded me of a waitress who couldn’t “turn a table” because the same people stayed all night long.

I decided to track homebuyer activity to see how many buyers who have been looking at homes for the last 30 days or so, have purchased one.  The little blue box on the doors of homes for sale tells us which agents have shown the property.  If you take that agent’s code number and plug it into the MLS, you can tell if that agent is involved in a pending or closed transaction in the same period of time. It’s not an exact science, but let’s see what we can find out.  As usual, I’m doing this in real time by tracking the agents as I write the post.

I pulled the records of 6 of my listings and the 56 showings by 48 agents they have had in the last 30 days or so.  34 of those 48 buyers have bought nothing. 2 bought my listings.  12 bought other properties (see below).  One of my listings in escrow during the same timeframe was purchased by the neighbor, so that pending transaction had no agent showing.  I’m not counting the times I showed the property myself or people who came through during an Open House.

Agent #1 showed the property 3 X in 2 days.  If you take the code # of the agent and plug it into the system, you will see that two days later that agent opened an escrow on a property that cost $250,000 more on a similar house nearby.

From that we can assume that the buyer of Agent #1 was weighing the choice of buying a fixer or spending $250,000 more for a similar home assessed for only $25,000 more.  It’s not unusual for someone to want a home that needs no work.  But spending $250,000 more to get one, is not all that common.  Especially one that doesn’t have more bedrooms or more bathrooms or much more square footage and is not in a better location.

Agent #3 showed the property twice and then the buyer purchased a newer townhome on the Eastside instead of a fixer single family home in Seattle.  This buyer spent $100,000 less.

Agent #5’s buyer bought my listing in Rivertrail in Redmond.

Agent #16’s buyer bought the house behind my listing in Seattle on a 2,800 sf lot vs. a 5,000 sf lot, listed for $6,000 less.  The price differential could have been $20,000 at the time.  I have to check the date of the showing vs. the date of the price change and the date the home behind it went into escrow.

Agent #19’s buyer bought a single family home in Downtown Kirkland vs. a townhome in Redmond for almost double the price.  (This one is more likely a different buyer with the same agent. Most of the agents listed as their buyer buying “Nothing” are agents who sold nothing at all, so it’s easier to be almost positive.  Though those 34 buyers could have bought something with a different agent, that’s not likely given the short timeframe tracked.

Agent #21s buyer went further south and bought a single family home instead of a condo for about $20,000 more.

Agent #22s buyer bought an “income qualified affordable ARCH” condo.  $20,000 more for twice the size and 1 additional bedroom.

Agent #24s. buyer bought a new townhome instead of an older craftsman that needed updating.

Agent #25s buyer spent $100,000 more and bought a house that needed less work.

Agent @26s buyer bought a condo in Capitol Hill vs. a fixer home in Green Lake.

Agent #28s buyer bought a newer home further away from Microsoft for $25,000 more (Newcastle)

Agent #36s buyer bought a new townhome (instead of an older SFH) further north in Seattle for $100,000 less.

Agent #37s buyer went to Shoreline vs. Green Lake and spent $100,000 less for a house that needed less or no work.

Agent #40s buyer bought my listing in Bellevue.

While I don’t intend to replace OBEO as “the expert in buyer behavior”, being able to track what buyers are actually doing, is a useful tool. This ability is only recent, as NWMLS just added the “selling agent” code ID to the data entered when registering a pending or closed sale.  It was the first (and only) thing I complained about back in 2004, and the change took place in June or July of 2008.  Many could not see the need to post the Buyer Agent info when recording a sale.

This feature offers an enormous advantage to our seller clients, who can now track via their listing agent, what the buyer did or didn’t do after seeing their home.

For listing agents, just write down the LAG# (agent code) of agents who show your listings.  Then you can track to see if they are putting anything at all into escrow…or not.  By seeing what the buyer chooses, you can determine if you need a price change, or if you need to make some condition improvements to your current listings.  There’s not much you can do if people don’t want a fixer and choose a new townhome instead. So before reducing the price based simply on time on market, assess the actual situation as carefully as possible.

Interesting side issues:

1)  Three of the agents are no longer agents at all, so I can no longer track them.  Showed my listing and then quit the business altogether 🙂

One of the agents’ buyers bought a Downtown Condo that had been on market for 4 1/2 months with no price reductions. Knowing WHY buyers are not choosing the property, by tracking their movements, can help owners decide whether you need to wait it out at the same price, or reduce the price.

Don’t buy into an automatic reverse auction of reducing the price every X days. Track what those buyers are doing, and plan and change your strategy accordingly.  A lower price isn’t going to turn a fixer craftsman into a new townhome.  Sometimes waiting longer for the right buyer IS the answer.  But if people are buying similar homes nearby for less…then a price reduction is in order.

Sunday Night Stats – More signs of stability

King County Home Sales

King County Home Sales for the last 8 years, the only time July volume was higher than June homes sold was in 2003. That 2008 is lower than 2007 is old news. The good news is that the relationship of sales month to month is following a predictable pattern and a normal relationship.King County Home Prices

King County Home Prices June and July

King County Home Prices June and July

Same as to prices.  Even in the boom years, the relationship of prices from June to July was pretty much the same as it is now.  Prices are running slightly above where they were this time of year in 2006.

Both of the above graphs are for King County Residential (not condo).  The question isn’t whether or not August will be down, but whether it will be down in a normal relationship to June and July.
The text is centering and I can’t stop it 🙂  Since it’s almost 1 a.m., I will do the regular weekly stats in the morning and post a link here.  I was more interested in end of July stats.  A few more will trickle in for months, so I’d say July was not a bad month overall.
Stats not compiled or published by NWMLS (required disclosure)

Sunday Night Stats – Where's the market heading?

Tonight I want to get an idea of where the market is heading as we go into July, as to prices.  I’m going to bulk together some Zip Codes that I personally follow, to have a large enough area to be meaningful, and yet zero in on local at the same time.

I’m getting the data as I am typing, so I have no idea how the numbers will fall.  We’ll find out together.

First Group: 98033, 98052, 98004, 98005, 98007 and 98008 on a combined basis.

Residential:

In January of 2008: median Asking Price of homes sold was $652,450 and the median Sold Price of those same homes was $625,000.  Median days on market of those sold homes was 68 days and 27.66% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $267.66

Lets jump to May 2008 and see where the market went by that time from the beginning of the year.  Median Asking Price $643,500.  Median Sold Price $630,000.  Median Days on Market 41 and 38.28% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $272.72

June 2008: median Asking Price $710,000.  median sold price $690,000. Median days on market 61 and 33.58% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $277.10

July month to date: Median Asking Price $650,000.  median sold price $639,000.  Median days on market 50 and 30.92% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $253.57.  Median type of house was a 4 bedroom 2 1/2 bath 2,520 sf home.

Some pretty large homes are in escrow with the median square footage of all homes in escrow at 2,660 and a medain price per square foot of $262.20.  Of course that $262.20 is asking price and not sold price, so prices are trending down from July 1 to present.

Let’s compare that to June of 2007: Median Asking Price $699,000.  Median Sold Price $685,000.  Median days on market 21 and 61.09% of homes sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $292.73.  Median type of house was a 4 bedroom 2 1/2 bath 2,340 sf home.

Interesting July stats so far.  The size of home is larger, the price is lower.  More home for less money as I said last week.  Very Interesting.  But the numbers are so different from May and June. Fewer houses sold quickly.  This data is worth tracking week to week, especially as we head into fall.

Second Group Seattle 98115 and 98103 on a combined basis excluding townhomes (townhomes on Eastside automatically not included for the most part, as on The Eastside townhomes are condos and not residential). Trying to keep this apples to apples.

In January of 2008: median Asking Price of homes sold was $540,000 and the median Sold Price of those same homes was $522,500  Median days on market of those sold homes was 51 days and 29.57% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $253.64

Lets jump to May 2008 and see where the market went by that time from the beginning of the year.  Median Asking Price $595,000.  Median Sold Price $580,000.  Median Days on Market 20 and 61.97% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $277.51

June 2008: median Asking Price $550,000.  median sold price $546,000. Median days on market 29 and 54,02% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $265.04

July month to date: Median Asking Price $567,450.  median sold price $553,450.  Median days on market 23 and 56.90% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $261.67.  Median type of house was a 3 bedroom 1 3/4 bath 2,115 sf home.

Let’s compare that to June of 2007: Median Asking Price $567,000.  Median Sold Price $569,500.  Median days on market 13 and 75.93% of homes sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $273.79.  Median type of house was a 3 bedroom 1 3/4 bath 2,080 sf home.

The median asking price of all pending sales is $535,000 and the median square footage is 2,085.  Looks like better “deals” are in escrow as we speak at $256.59 MPPSF as to ASKING prices with that number to be pared down further as to sold prices.

Stats not compiled or published by NWMLS. (Required disclosure)


Unless someone asks for the regular weekly King County Stats, I’ll post them over on my blog tomorrow.  It’s been a long, back-breaking day for me.  I was more interested in finding out where the market was heading, than posting overall King County since last Sunday.  But I will post them on my blog tomorrow for the benefit of those who have been charting them on Excel Spreadsheets.

Goodnight!

*****************

You can find the regular weekly stats here.

Tami Michaels re Mayor Nickels & Multi-Family Design Standards

Home Improvement Radio Expert Seattle 770 KTTHTomorrow morning, Saturday July 26th, at 11:00 a.m., a representative of the Seattle Mayor’s Office will be On Air with Tami Michaels.  The show will be devoted to Mayor Nickels proposed changes to multi-family zoned construction (original announcement from the Mayor’s Office).

And more details about Tami’s show tomorrow here.

Tami called me before I left for Inman Connect to discuss this topic, specifically with regard to regulations that could increase costs for builders and consumers at a time when the housing market is weakening.  The discussion led to the age old question “Can government dictate taste in housing style?”

I have had many discussions over the years with various municipalities regarding this topic, and they all hinge on this quote from City Councilmember, Sally Clark “The mayor and I have both heard a lot lately about how growth is affecting our neighborhoods, not all of it is positive…”

Over the span of my 18 plus years in real estate in various places on both Coasts, I have become involved with this issue from time to time, and EVERY time it boils down to nothing happening except a bunch of controversy with little to no satisfactory result.  I have been to several “town meetings” where everyone who was griping was invited to attend and participate in discussions to improve whatever everyone “wanted” or was griping about.  Each time what became apparent as a result of these meetings is that you can never get everyone to agree, and sometimes you can’t even get people to attend the meetings!!!  It’s one thing to hang around griping about change, it’s quite another to be asked to get involved in a viable solution.

So I ask anyone who thinks they might have something to add to the discussion regarding proposed changes to multi-family zoned building projects in Seattle, to head on over to Tami Michaels’ post and add a comment.  I’m going to listen to tomorrow’s radio show and gather more info before commenting.  Maybe you would like Free Flushes to become mandatory…maybe not.

Anyone involved in Seattle Real Estate, or residents who have something to add about townhomes or the proposal in general, should tune in tomorrow at 11:00. “The changes would affect the 10 percent of the city zoned for multifamily construction, from low-rise development throughout the city to high-rise residential towers on First Hill. The change is heralded by the Mayor’s Office as “… the first major update to multifamily zoning in Seattle in 20 years.”

Don’t let a once in 20 years change pass by, without at least craning your neck to take a peek at what it’s all about.

Mr Monk Buys a House

Mr Monk

Mr. Monk returns to TV with a premiere episode this Friday, July 18th. This one will be near a dear to our hearts. He’s going to buy a house! That’s right. Here is your most OCD client in a life-imitates-art drama.

When his new neighbor plays his music too loud, Monk decides it’s time to move. He makes the big leap and buys a house that turns into a money pit, reminiscent of the 1986 movie that we agents like to give to first-time buyers who think they are ready for a fixer-upper. Things continue to challenge Adrian when he hires the handyman from hell who is determined to rip up the entire house. Brad Garrett form Everybody Loves Raymond guest stars.

Mr Monk Buys a House - trailer
Episode Trailer

Most of us agents have had clients like this to some degree and I’m sure there will be a number of been-there-experienced-that moments. I just wanted to make sure those who didn’t know have a chance to TiVo or whatever to see it.

Open Houses in Bryant Sunday 7/13

Hi everyone,

I can’t give you the whole list here in a blog post, as it is against one of the many mls rules 🙂 But tomorrow there will be at least 15 Open Houses in Bryant.  Many agents from different offices have gotten together to have their properties open tomorrow.  Most from 1-4, but some for other times within that range.

Generally they are between 25th Ave and 40th Ave NE.  Mine is at 6806 27th Ave NE from 1-4 and I will have a list and map of the other Open Houses at that location.  A good opportunity to see a lot of properties within a short distance.  They range in price from $479,000 to $850,000 with most of them $600,000 or less.

Agents are still sending me info, so I don’t have a complete list yet.  But for those who like to view property, it’s a good opportunity to maximize the number of homes you can see in a short period of time, complete with a guide map.