Of course Monday is the last day of the 2nd Quarter and the 1st Half of 2008.  Exciting stuff!  But that will be next week’s news.

Tonight, since 6/29 will be kind of boring weekly stuff, I tracked of few of the top listing machines to see how their volume has changed.  Can’t tell you who they are, but remember, when volume is down some of these big teams have to split with several people.  So expect to see some cutting down on staff given the change in the market.

The worst was down to 9 sales in the 2nd quarter of 08, from a high of 25 quarterly sales.  Another down from 28 to 12.  Another down to 11 from a high of 27.  Average price down from $1.7M to $1.3M.  Another down from $2M to $1.5M.  One is carrying 60 listings…with only a 25% turn rate.  That’s a lot of marketing costs for homes not selling.  Another is carrying 55 listings with a 20% sold rate.  Another dependent primarily on builders for inventory is down to more than 50% fewer listings with volume sold off 50% below that.

Now for this weeks stats.  The chart from last week has been updated as to 2Q08, but all the data is not yet in. Remember, last day of month can be a heavy closing day, and many won’t post those for several days.  The holiday weekend could cause further posting delays next week.

Watch those condo stats…they will play a role in residential stats in coming quarters.  Residential will lag as to how the condo market ultimately impacts the single family home sales.  Look at the difference in volume on the condos 1Q08 vs 2Q08 compared to the spread on those two quarters in previous years.  And of course the price dip is fairly dramatic there. 

What will be interesting is when we get to monthly YOY volume stats come August and September, when we are comparing this year to the part of last year that was already reduced as to volume.

King Couny Condos

2004 – 1Q – 1,694 – $188, 2Q 2,636 – $199, 3Q 2,540 – $196, 4Q 2,176 – $195

2005 – 1Q – 2,066 – $198, 2Q 2,925 – $209, 3Q 2,769 – $226, 4Q 2,266 – $224

2006 – 1Q – 1,956 – $242, 2Q 2.748 – $252, 3Q 2,737 – $269, 4Q 2,217 – $278

2007 – 1Q – 2,042 – $295, 2Q 2,862 – $302, 3Q 2,676 – $311, 4Q 1,618 – $294

2008 – 1Q – 1,258 – $299, 2Q 1,384 – $288 (2Q incomplete data – postings as of 6/29/08)

Changes in condo stats for this week

Active Listings: 4,047 – DOWN 2- median price $320,000 – MPPSF  asking $316 – DOM 61

In Escrow:  913 –  DOWN 16 – median asking price $295,000  – MPPSF asking $294  – DOM – 51

Sold YTD :  2,645 – UP 141 – median list price $294,950 – median sold price  $289,000 – median PPSF – $294 DOM 48

Residential King county

2004 – 1Q 5,650 – $152, 2Q 9,237 – $160, 3Q 8.737 – $163, 4Q 7,467 – $165

2005 – 1Q 6,402 – $173, 2Q 9,093 – $185, 3Q 9,131 – $192, 4Q 7,301 – $195

2006 – 1Q 5,596 – $201, 2Q 8,248 – $214, 3Q 7,771 – $216, 4Q 6,204 – $217

2007 – 1Q 5,304 – $222, 2Q 7,393 – $230, 3Q 7,944 – $229, 4Q 4,301 – $221

2008 – 1Q 3,640 – $219, 2Q 4,266 – $220 (2Q incomplete data – postings as of 6/29/08)

Changes in residential stats for this week

In Escrow: 2,863 – DOWN 68 – median asking price $442,400 – DOM 47 – MPPSF $211

SOLD YTD: 7,908-  UP 419- median asking $449,950 – median sold price $440,000- DOM 49 – MPPSF $219

Actively for sale 12,187 – UP 192- MPPSF <$800,000 is $220- MPPSF >$800,000 is $337

Stats not compiled or published by NWMLS. (Required disclosure) 

Asking prices of property coming on market continue to inch up, even as prices of property going into escrow and closing continues to inch down. 

As to prices, so far condos are down 6.7% from peak pricing;  Residential is down 4.8% from peak and residential “in escrow” down 6.5% from peak pricing.  (I am showing the peak price in bold in the charts below for easy comparison)

So far it looks like this will be the first quarter in a very long time where the median price per square foot is trending downward in the condo market, and flat at best in the residential market.  Considering that the 2nd quarter has exceeded the 1st quarter as to price in recent years, this is significant news.  We have another 8 days in the month, but look at the volume and prices in the charts below.

I’m going to continue to keep a running total of YOY.  Last week I went all the way back to 2000.  In future weeks I will continue to post 2004 to present so we can see where volume peaked, and track pricing to see how the volume changes are slowly impacting prices, and how these prices compare to previous quarters.

If you read the colums down instead of left to right, it should make a little more sense to you.  We will see a lot of changes in the 2nd quarter starts in the next couple of weeks.  But given the weekly stats are continuing to show weak numbers as to median price per square foot as to properties “in escrow”, I don’t think we are going to see the expansion we are used to between the 1st and 2nd quarters as to volume (no surprise) OR price.  I’ll post and compare the percentages when all of the results are in for the month of June.

King Couny Condos

2004 – 1Q – 1,694 – $188, 2Q 2,636 – $199, 3Q 2,540 – $196, 4Q 2,176 – $195

2005 – 1Q – 2,066 – $198, 2Q 2,925 – $209, 3Q 2,769 – $226, 4Q 2,266 – $224

2006 – 1Q – 1,956 – $242, 2Q 2.748 – $252, 3Q 2,737 – $269, 4Q 2,217 – $278

2007 – 1Q – 2,042 – $295, 2Q 2,862 – $302, 3Q 2,676 – $311, 4Q 1,618 – $294

2008 – 1Q – 1,258 – $299, 2Q 1,244 – $290 (2Q incomplete data – postings as of 6/22/08)

Changes in condo stats for this week

Active Listings: 4,049 – UP 85 – median price $324,950 – MPPSF  asking $321 – DOM 60

In Escrow:  929 –  DOWN 17 – median price $289,000  – MPPSF asking $286  – DOM – 50

Sold YTD :  2,504 – UP 120 – median list price $295,000 – median sold price  $289,950 – median PPSF – $295 DOM 48

Residential King county

2004 – 1Q 5,650 – $152, 2Q 9,237 – $160, 3Q 8.737 – $163, 4Q 7,467 – $165

2005 – 1Q 6,402 – $173, 2Q 9,093 – $185, 3Q 9,131 – $192, 4Q 7,301 – $195

2006 – 1Q 5,596 – $201, 2Q 8,248 – $214, 3Q 7,771 – $216, 4Q 6,204 – $217

2007 – 1Q 5,304 – $222, 2Q 7,393 – $230, 3Q 7,944 – $229, 4Q 4,301 – $221

2008 – 1Q 3,640 – $219, 2Q 3,846 – $219 (2Q incomplete data – postings as of 6/22/08)

Changes in residential stats for this week

In Escrow: 2,931 – DOWN 56 – median asking price $449,000 – DOM 47 – MPPSF $215

SOLD YTD: 7,489 –  UP 377 – median sold price $440,000- DOM 49 – MPPSF $219

Actively for sale 11,995 – UP 178 – MPPSF <$800,000 is $220- MPPSF >$800,000 is $337

Stats not compiled or published by NWMLS. (Required disclosure) 

Remember, the in escrow MPPSF is lower and those are ASKING prices, not sold prices.  Sold prices have been running about $10,000 less than asking prices in both the single family and condo markets.

I’ve been reporting the change in volume and MPPSF.  But let’s go back a bit so you can see the change from an historical perspective, and also help put things into focus as we move forward from here.  By seeing how we have gotten to where we are, you can better determine if what is happening currently and in the future is “normal” for that time of year, or a change from the normal relationships of quantity and price from quarter to quarter.

Format is Year, Quarter, number of units sold and median price per square foot.

King County Condos

2000 – 1Q x,xxx – $xxx, 2Q 1,574  – $154, 3Q 1,725 – $157, 4Q 1,491 – $162

2001 – 1Q 1,444 – $163, 2Q 1,770 – $165, 3Q 1,816 – $174, 4Q 1,380 – $166

2002 – 1Q 1,464 – $168, 2Q 1,885 – $172, 3Q 1,885 – $172, 4Q 1,642 – $173

2003 – 1Q 1,518 – $168, 2Q 2,011 – $179, 3Q 2,338 – $184, 4Q 1,911 – $183

2004 – 1Q 1,694 – $188, 2Q 2,636 – $199, 3Q 2,540 – $196, 4Q 2,176 – $195

2005 – 1Q 2,066 – $198, 2Q 2,925 – $209, 3Q 2,769 – $226, 4Q 2,266 – $224

2006 – 1Q 1,956 – $242, 2Q 2.748 – $252, 3Q 2,737 – $269, 4Q 2,217 – $278

2007 – 1Q 2,042 – $295, 2Q 2,862 – $302, 3Q 2,676 – $311, 4Q 1,618 – $294

2008 – 1Q 1,258 – $299, 2Q 1,126 – $288 (2Q incomplete data – postings as of 6/16/08)

King Couny Condos

Active Listings: 3,964 – DOWN 22 – median price $325,000 – MPPSF  asking $320 – DOM 60

In Escrow:  946 –  UP 8 – median price $288,250  – MPPSF asking $288  – DOM – 50

Sold YTD :  2,384 – UP 97 – median list price $294,950 – median sold price  $289,000 – median PPSF – $294 DOM 48

King County Residential 

2000 – 1Q x,xxx – $xxx, 2Q 6,111 – $130, 3Q 5,994 – $127, 4Q 5,248 – $128 

2001 – 1Q 4,662 – $131, 2Q 6,336 – $135, 3Q 6,454 – $133, 4Q 4,963 – $131

2002 – 1Q 4,964 – $134, 2Q 6,740 – $140, 3Q 6,320 – $140, 4Q 5,897 – $138

2003 – 1Q 5,479 – $141, 2Q 7,783 – $143, 3Q 8,683 – $148, 4Q 6,859 – $147

2004 – 1Q 5,650 – $152, 2Q 9,237 – $160, 3Q 8.737 – $163, 4Q 7,467 – $165

2005 – 1Q 6,402 – $173, 2Q 9,093 – $185, 3Q 9,131 – $192, 4Q 7,301 – $195

2006 – 1Q 5,596 – $201, 2Q 8,248 – $214, 3Q 7,771 – $216, 4Q 6,204 – $217

2007 – 1Q 5,304 – $222, 2Q 7,393 – $230, 3Q 7,944 – $229, 4Q 4,301 – $221

2008 – 1Q 3,640 – $219, 2Q 3,471- $220 (2Q incomplete data – postings as of 6/16/08)

Residential King county

In Escrow: 2,987 – UP 80 – median asking price $448,900 – DOM 46 – MPPSF $213

SOLD YTD: 7,112 –  UP 306 – median sold price $439,900- DOM 49 – MPPSF $220

Actively for sale 11,817- UP 64 – MPPSF <$800,000 is $220- MPPSF >$800,000 is $337

Stats not compiled or published by NWMLS. (Required disclosure) 

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In the post below this one I varied from the normal format.  Posting this one for readers who are keeping the weekly data on an excel spreadsheet.

King Couny Condos

Active Listings: 3,942 – UP 31 – median price $323,000 – MPPSF $318 – DOM 61

In Escrow: 938 – DOWN 6 – median price $299,900 – MPPSF $299 – DOM 52

Sold YTD : 2,287 – UP 146- median list price $289,950 – median sold price $285,000 – median PPSF $291 – DOM 48

King County Residential

In Escrow: 2,907 – UP 28 – median asking price $445,000 – DOM 46 – MPPSF $211

SOLD YTD: 6,806 –  UP 259 – median sold price $440,000 – DOM 49 – MPPSF $220

Actively for sale 11,753- UP 141 – MPPSF <$800,000 is $219.50 – MPPSF >$800,000 is $337.50

Stats not compiled or published by NWMLS. (Required disclosure)

Not a huge movement, but fewer condos for sale, meaning they are selling a bit faster than they are coming on market, for a change.  Fewer in escrow than last week, but that’s normal for the last week in the month as more escrows close out in that week.  Won’t be doing true month end stats until next week, as there will be end of month closings posting during this week.

King County Condos

Active Listings: 3,911 DOWN 42 – median price $324,999 – MPPSF $320 – DOM 59

In Escrow: 944 – DOWN 28 – median price $299,925 – MPPSF $300 – DOM 51

Sold YTD : 2141 – UP 127- median list price $289,950 – median sold price $285,000 – median PPSF $290 – DOM 47

I did a quick check on May closings.  While all are not posted, May sales prices were up both as to median price and MPPSF at $290,000 and $293.  Likely won’t take the YTD numbers up much, but one would expect “high season” sales to be a bit more as to price than 1st quarter sales…and they are.  I’m putting one on at $273 per square foot in Issaquah this week, hoping for shorter days on market than the King County median of 47.

King County Residential

Single family homes are not selling at a higher rate than they are coming on market as the condos are.  I would expect to see that change in June and July.  The number in escrow is down, but again that is because more move from in escrow to closed in the last week of a month, than in other weeks.

In Escrow: 2,879 – DOWN 54 – median asking price $448,950 – DOM 45 – MPPSF $212

SOLD YTD: 6,547 –  UP 380 – median sold price $440,000 – DOM 50 – MPPSF $221

May sale prices are up at $447,000, but no change for MPPSF

I do the Actives last for Residential, as I can’t run stats when volume is over 10,000 units

Actively for sale 11,612- UP 33 – MPPSF <$800,000 is $220 – MPPSF >$800,000 is $339

If distressed properties start selling more and more outside of the mls and less and less via the mls, we will have to check these numbers against the tax record data.  In fact it will be a good idea at the end of June to compare the first two quarters mls figures with County Stats.

I’m still seeing multiple offers on the best properties.  People expecting the best properties in the best areas to sell at bargain prices are disappointed.  It’s not that kind of buyer’s market.  It’s not really a buyer’s market at all…it’s just not a seller’s market. Distressed properties ARE a bargain, but not the best homes in the best areas.  The date for that to change is usually around October 15th.

Stats not compiled or published by NWMLS. (Required disclosure)