ARDELL & Obama Front Page Above the Fold

Dustin wanted to see this in the hard copy version.  My thoughts on it.
ARDELL & OBAMA front page news above the fold  - LOL!

ARDELL & OBAMA front page news above the fold - LOL!

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About ARDELL

ARDELL is the Managing Broker of Sound Realty in Seattle/Kirkland. ARDELL was named one of the Most Influential Real Estate Bloggers in the U.S. by Inman News and 25 years experience in Real Estate up and down both Coasts, representing both buyers and sellers of homes in Seattle and on The Eastside. Follow Ardell on Google+

106 thoughts on “ARDELL & Obama Front Page Above the Fold

  1. Judging from what we know so far about how the economic crisis is being handled – I’m going to have to agree with Obama about the deepening crisis.

    I would like to think the housing slump is behind us – but that would take fiscal responsibility on the part of the Congress… which we can all see is lacking.

    My prediction – based upon the failures of other economies (like Japan) using similar tactics – is that it will be years before the housing slump is over.

    I hope I will be proven wrong.

  2. Judging from what we know so far about how the economic crisis is being handled – I’m going to have to agree with Obama about the deepening crisis.

    I would like to think the housing slump is behind us – but that would take fiscal responsibility on the part of the Congress… which we can all see is lacking.

    My prediction – based upon the failures of other economies (like Japan) using similar tactics – is that it will be years before the housing slump is over.

    I hope I will be proven wrong.

  3. Hey, I didn’t write the article OR the headline. I just said we hit bottom, and I could find a house at the bottom for my client. That doesn’t mean they are ALL priced at bottom. They are not even all selling at bottom. But some are. We couldn’t say that a year ago, for sure.

    It’s work smarter not harder time for buyers and sellers. I’m writing some posts to go a little deeper in, but Aubrey was using my posts here from Saturday and Sunday.

    He came up with the “Agent Predicts” title…and he’s getting some flack for it too 🙂 I surely had nothing to do with getting nose to nose with Obama…but I’m enjoying it nonetheless.

  4. Doug,

    I only speak for the areas I work in…you have to figure out your own market. I don’t even do Pierce County or points south of downtown.

    It amazes me when people complain (not you Doug) that I won’t predict for a three County area or even all of King County. No one works that large of an area…not well anyway. Not well enough to have their finger on the pulse.

    If every agent would do what I do…in their respective areas…we’d have the whole picture. Professionals shouldn’t be looking at blogs or news stories to tell them about the market they work in every day. We tell them…they don’t tell us.

  5. Doug,

    I only speak for the areas I work in…you have to figure out your own market. I don’t even do Pierce County or points south of downtown.

    It amazes me when people complain (not you Doug) that I won’t predict for a three County area or even all of King County. No one works that large of an area…not well anyway. Not well enough to have their finger on the pulse.

    If every agent would do what I do…in their respective areas…we’d have the whole picture. Professionals shouldn’t be looking at blogs or news stories to tell them about the market they work in every day. We tell them…they don’t tell us.

  6. LOL – Well that won’t be the first or last time the newspapers write the story and headline that don’t really match the “story”.

    I wish Congress would simply eliminate payroll taxes (all of them including income tax) for the rest of the year. It would cost nearly two trillion dollars… then implement the Fair Tax next year.

    THAT would get us out of the recession – and give us a big shot in the arm for growth. Of course, Congress would lose power… so they won’t do it – which proves they really don’t give a rat’s ass about this country.

    You can thank the Democrats for stripping the housing credit (or reducing it) from the conference bill. The Republicans don’t have a say in it.

  7. I am very, very, very disappointed about the back-peddling on that $15,000 credit. That was not a good thing.

    Well, since we came to mutual acceptance on a house today, I’m personally a bit disappointed as well. But it was a horrendous waste off money for the country, and I’m glad they chose to spend on education, rails and energy infrastructure instead. All it was was a full-employment bill for Realtors, which, while I’m sure is worthy in some folks eyes, would have provided little to no real stimulus compared to projects with decent multipliers.

    Good for them for cutting a popular but misguided portion of the plan, and doubly good for the country.

  8. Cam! You dropped the anonymous Moniker! What’s up with that?

    I think the credit that comes out will be equal to the $15,000 one for most people, given the taxable amount cap. If it’s $8,000 and can be spread over two years, many will not see a decrease in the credit.

    I just don’t want to speculate any further until it’s signed. It will likely COST the same…and SOUND less exciting…dumb, dumb move.

    Congratulations! Was it a different house, or the same one you found a few weeks back?

  9. Sorry Cam – the $15K was neither a waste of money nor a full-employment bill for Realtors.

    The continued collapse of the housing market is robbing this country of several trillions of dollars in wealth. Buyers don’t want to catch a falling knife, so the tax credit would help shore up housing prices – which in turn can help stabilize the economy.

    It was the collapse of the housing market that started this mess.

    Unless you’re a renter – you should be hoping for a stable housing market, too.

  10. Yeah, clicked some facebook link and fell into some anti-anonymity trap. Since we have a house all but sown up that we’ll hopefully live in until long after all you are dead, I don’t have to worry about pissing of the pros any more, so didn’t bother to correct. 😉

    Same house. I was apparently wrong about my suspicions. It really was just a coincidence that her husband asked for a divorce the night we presented an offer. My faith in human nature is partially restored.

  11. Yeah doug, but how enticing owners to swap one house for another is going to “stabilize the market” is beyond me. All this would have done is produce more churn, not new houses (which we don’t need because we are already at 5 million empty homes), or new homeowners.

    Just churn.

    Good for Realtors, bad for America. No stabilization there at all. A temporary spike, stealing transactions from 2010. How is that good for America?

  12. Yeah doug, but how enticing owners to swap one house for another is going to “stabilize the market” is beyond me. All this would have done is produce more churn, not new houses (which we don’t need because we are already at 5 million empty homes), or new homeowners.

    Just churn.

    Good for Realtors, bad for America. No stabilization there at all. A temporary spike, stealing transactions from 2010. How is that good for America?

  13. It will certainly not cost the same, Ardell. The estimate on the 7.5K loan was 3 billion, the estimate on the 15K credit was 30-40 billion. I haven’t seen a solid estimate on the 8K credit for new homeowners, but my guess is far less than 10 billion.

  14. That math doesn’t compute for me. How can less than half of a cut on benefit be 25% of the cost? Anyway…no sense speculating. I, as if they could the spread over two years provision, it’s all moot. I’ll wait till it’s signed before doing the math for an average homebuyer in these parts.

  15. On a side note…I just got some bad news that my son-in-law (the daughter who just had the baby a month ago) was called back into the service. I’m beside myself…so I’m signing out for now.

  16. “That doesn’t mean they are ALL priced at bottom. They are not even all selling at bottom. But some are.”

    So what exactly are you talking about then? I thought you called THE bottom? Getting cold feet now with all the publicity?

  17. luckily, the media and general public have short memories, otherwise this could turn out to be an embarrassing episode for ones career.

  18. Sorry guys…I’m heading to bed and will be at Zillow all day tomorrow. I’m more than happy to help you understand what bottom is, and what I mean by that. I wrote a post over on my blog on Seattle 98115, but I have to add a second part and some graphs to it.

    fillmore…you want a house at bottom? You can go get one. Yes, bottom. Does that mean every house is priced at bottom? No. If every house were priced at bottom, it wouldn’t be bottom, as people would negotiate lower than those prices or sellers would lower to compete with one another.

    “bottom” can never exist in all homes for sale at the same time as to asking prices. I usually stay up till one or two, but as I noted, my family got some bad news tonight and I have to be at Zillow by 9.

    I just didn’t want you to think I was ignoring you.

    I’ve been honest all along, but some people only like me when I say it’s up and others only like me when I say it’s down…whatever. If someone wants a house at bottom today…they can clearly get it.

    Last year at this time you could not buy a house at bottom. 20% under peak price for that house (not asking price ) is bottom for a home not in distress, not on a busy road with half a roof. A nice house in a nice location IN MY SERVICE AREAS.

    Tacoma? I don’t know. I don’t work there. Ohio? I don’t know, I don’t work there. Will everyone sell their house at bottom? No. But we know where bottom is. That’s the best I can do for you.

  19. Sorry guys…I’m heading to bed and will be at Zillow all day tomorrow. I’m more than happy to help you understand what bottom is, and what I mean by that. I wrote a post over on my blog on Seattle 98115, but I have to add a second part and some graphs to it.

    fillmore…you want a house at bottom? You can go get one. Yes, bottom. Does that mean every house is priced at bottom? No. If every house were priced at bottom, it wouldn’t be bottom, as people would negotiate lower than those prices or sellers would lower to compete with one another.

    “bottom” can never exist in all homes for sale at the same time as to asking prices. I usually stay up till one or two, but as I noted, my family got some bad news tonight and I have to be at Zillow by 9.

    I just didn’t want you to think I was ignoring you.

    I’ve been honest all along, but some people only like me when I say it’s up and others only like me when I say it’s down…whatever. If someone wants a house at bottom today…they can clearly get it.

    Last year at this time you could not buy a house at bottom. 20% under peak price for that house (not asking price ) is bottom for a home not in distress, not on a busy road with half a roof. A nice house in a nice location IN MY SERVICE AREAS.

    Tacoma? I don’t know. I don’t work there. Ohio? I don’t know, I don’t work there. Will everyone sell their house at bottom? No. But we know where bottom is. That’s the best I can do for you.

  20. It will cost the taxpayer significantly less because, unless I misread the bill as it’s been reported as of now, it only covers first-time home buyers. As I’m sure you know, there are far fewer of those than the total pool of buyers buying homes to occupy.

    I’ll go check out your post on 98115.

  21. Since we only have history to show us what HAS worked… and what has NOT worked, perhaps you will look back to the days of Jimmy Carter when the recession gave us a three year supply of homes. A $3000 tax credit over the course of a year dropped the inventory back to a little over a year’s supply.

    $3000 back then would buy you a new Volkswagen Beetle. $15K today will get you pretty close to buying a new Beetle (and maybe all the way there).

    Senator Isakson was a real estate broker back then… and his proposal was based on historical facts. The kind of spending in this stimulus bill (at least what we know of it with this “new transparent administration”) has NEVER been shown to work. Japan tried it… and spent 15 years in a recession.

    But that’s okay – Obama and the Democrats won the election… and they OWN this baby. If it works – they’re good for a generation. If not – they’re toast.

  22. Since we only have history to show us what HAS worked… and what has NOT worked, perhaps you will look back to the days of Jimmy Carter when the recession gave us a three year supply of homes. A $3000 tax credit over the course of a year dropped the inventory back to a little over a year’s supply.

    $3000 back then would buy you a new Volkswagen Beetle. $15K today will get you pretty close to buying a new Beetle (and maybe all the way there).

    Senator Isakson was a real estate broker back then… and his proposal was based on historical facts. The kind of spending in this stimulus bill (at least what we know of it with this “new transparent administration”) has NEVER been shown to work. Japan tried it… and spent 15 years in a recession.

    But that’s okay – Obama and the Democrats won the election… and they OWN this baby. If it works – they’re good for a generation. If not – they’re toast.

  23. Back then we were also looking at a huge over-supply of new homes, but the inventory of existing homes was fairly normal. The tax-credit quite rightly was targeted at new-homes, which would of course be stimulating. Not just churn. Actually getting new homes built and sold, which puts a whole cascade of workers to work. Very stimulating.

    It was also a very different environment for a number of other reasons, including high inflation and interest rates. Not really comparable.

  24. Don’t worry, Cam – if you don’t think that high inflation and high interest rates aren’t coming… you’ve got another thing coming. Carter turned on the printing presses to put money into the markets. Back then, we used to see the M-1 and M-3 money supply numbers on the evening news every day.

    It’s not too late to buy gold.

  25. Don’t worry, Cam – if you don’t think that high inflation and high interest rates aren’t coming… you’ve got another thing coming. Carter turned on the printing presses to put money into the markets. Back then, we used to see the M-1 and M-3 money supply numbers on the evening news every day.

    It’s not too late to buy gold.

  26. Cam,

    I’m not used to the private/public comment feature over on my blog. Take a look over there to see how I treated the comment and let me know if you want me to change it in any way.

    Back to my premise of bottom at 20% down, or less for distressed property, you came very, very close, and that’s good enough. Looks like 17.7% under peak, from what I can see.

    Congratulations. I’m sure you will be very happy there. Definitely an ugrade for you in all ways.

    I totally agree with you that the opportunity in this market is that you had a chance at something the builders might have grabbed in a hot market. I for one am happy with prices down, and fewer investors and flippers grabbing up these opportunities.

  27. By all accounts, Doug, I think most people agree higher interest rates are coming. When by most accounts is not in the next 12 months though.

    I am very pleased that Obama won…you do not sem to be. So I am not commenting much on your comments here. I neither agree nor disagree on most of them. Thank you for contributing to the conversation.

  28. By all accounts, Doug, I think most people agree higher interest rates are coming. When by most accounts is not in the next 12 months though.

    I am very pleased that Obama won…you do not sem to be. So I am not commenting much on your comments here. I neither agree nor disagree on most of them. Thank you for contributing to the conversation.

  29. Love all the debate here about a bottom, but there’s still a huge of mortgage foreclosures to work its way through the system — we’ve really only seen only subprime. Only until we get through a lot of the alt-A and prime ‘junk,’ and the ensuing supply that will result, can we even talk about a bottom for real estate.

  30. Cam

    Aside from Aubrey’s headline, and the position it took on the front page, neither of which I take responsibility for…in fact I think it was funny and I am enjoying it.

    The purpose of my blogging is to help as many people as possible with tough decisions. Knowing 20% under peak is a good price and likely bottom, and the opportunity exists today to get as much as 37% under peak, if one is willing to face the risks of that deep of a discount, is helpful.

    Now you know where you stand. In the range of 20% to 37%, you placed at 17.7%. Isn’t that of value to you? It would be to me.

    Many of my clients don’t want lowest price, but they do like to know what they are agreeing to…”am I overpaying?” “Underpaying?”

    It’s about information…and the assurances that come with more information to make better choices.

    Those who want to be mad that I am doing what I do…don’t seem to understand what I do, and why I do it.

  31. Cam

    Aside from Aubrey’s headline, and the position it took on the front page, neither of which I take responsibility for…in fact I think it was funny and I am enjoying it.

    The purpose of my blogging is to help as many people as possible with tough decisions. Knowing 20% under peak is a good price and likely bottom, and the opportunity exists today to get as much as 37% under peak, if one is willing to face the risks of that deep of a discount, is helpful.

    Now you know where you stand. In the range of 20% to 37%, you placed at 17.7%. Isn’t that of value to you? It would be to me.

    Many of my clients don’t want lowest price, but they do like to know what they are agreeing to…”am I overpaying?” “Underpaying?”

    It’s about information…and the assurances that come with more information to make better choices.

    Those who want to be mad that I am doing what I do…don’t seem to understand what I do, and why I do it.

  32. fillmore,

    Your reputation precedes you, dear. I have been in the business of representing people in a fiduciary capacity for almost 40 years. I’m turning 55 this year. The least of my concerns is whether or not you want to look back and slap me for any reason whatsoever. I’m quite confident in my abilities, and anyone with half a brain understands that economic and housing forecasting is not an exact science.

    I’m more than happy to be right about real estate…MOST of the time.

  33. fillmore,

    Your reputation precedes you, dear. I have been in the business of representing people in a fiduciary capacity for almost 40 years. I’m turning 55 this year. The least of my concerns is whether or not you want to look back and slap me for any reason whatsoever. I’m quite confident in my abilities, and anyone with half a brain understands that economic and housing forecasting is not an exact science.

    I’m more than happy to be right about real estate…MOST of the time.

  34. To tell you the truth, Ardell – I wouldn’t have been happy no matter who won the election.

    I am less than thrilled that divided government no longer exists.

    The direction we are headed in will almost certainly result in a drop in our standard of living. For that, I am not happy.

  35. Ardell,

    I’m sorry, but to me it sounds like your definition of bottom is “a house that sells for 20% below peak value, in the area Ardel defines”. If the house sells for below 20% of peak value, then it was distressed (in some way, which could be “the owner got less than 20% off peak”).

    All you are doing is giving the the word “bottom” your own definition.

    This is also essentially “doublespeak” since the definition you use is not what just about anyone else uses.

    Gene

  36. Ardell,

    I’m sorry, but to me it sounds like your definition of bottom is “a house that sells for 20% below peak value, in the area Ardel defines”. If the house sells for below 20% of peak value, then it was distressed (in some way, which could be “the owner got less than 20% off peak”).

    All you are doing is giving the the word “bottom” your own definition.

    This is also essentially “doublespeak” since the definition you use is not what just about anyone else uses.

    Gene

  37. On my previous message, I probably should have said “this comes across as doublespeak” – rather than saying it essentially is.

    I think people are getting confused about your meaning because when most people say “bottom of the real estate market” they mean “prices will not go down further in general”.

    Gene

  38. I left Zillow at the lunch break, but need to get over to my daughter’s, as she is pretty distraught about Peter being “called back” into the service. I’ll answer this best I can and then check back this evening.

    A market is never a constant. I think the short segment on the Dave Ross show, and his questions and my answers, will help fill in the blanks. There’s a link in this post that goes to my blog where the radio show link is.

    But let me try to put this into “written” words. I remember Dave Ross saying somewhat rhetorically: “So what you are saying is the big drop is over”, so apparently he “got it” from what I said in the radio show.

    If the stock market drops to “hanging in the eights” it can peek in and out of the 7s and it can peek in and out of the 9s, and it can keep drawing toward 8,500 or so as if 8,500 is a magnet. Just because the market hit a bottom, doesn’t mean it stays constantly in one place. There is a variance in either direction constantly…that’s what makes it “a market”.

    Likewise, if the stock market is clearly “at bottom”, one stock can still be overpriced and another underpriced, on any given day.

    The housing industry is a market, like any other market. You can find a super bargain one day, and no bargains another day (because they were all bought up). There will be premium priced houses that will still sell close to peak prices.

    The purpose of my “calling” bottom at 20% under peak for most sellers and up to 37% under peak for huge bargains at foreclosure, is so that people have a range.

    I AM A REAL ESTATE AGENT and the economist side of me is NOT political or self serving. I have to give advices to people who are buying and selling homes, and to do that I need to be “a student of the market”.

    You said: “This is also essentially “doublespeak

  39. I left Zillow at the lunch break, but need to get over to my daughter’s, as she is pretty distraught about Peter being “called back” into the service. I’ll answer this best I can and then check back this evening.

    A market is never a constant. I think the short segment on the Dave Ross show, and his questions and my answers, will help fill in the blanks. There’s a link in this post that goes to my blog where the radio show link is.

    But let me try to put this into “written” words. I remember Dave Ross saying somewhat rhetorically: “So what you are saying is the big drop is over”, so apparently he “got it” from what I said in the radio show.

    If the stock market drops to “hanging in the eights” it can peek in and out of the 7s and it can peek in and out of the 9s, and it can keep drawing toward 8,500 or so as if 8,500 is a magnet. Just because the market hit a bottom, doesn’t mean it stays constantly in one place. There is a variance in either direction constantly…that’s what makes it “a market”.

    Likewise, if the stock market is clearly “at bottom”, one stock can still be overpriced and another underpriced, on any given day.

    The housing industry is a market, like any other market. You can find a super bargain one day, and no bargains another day (because they were all bought up). There will be premium priced houses that will still sell close to peak prices.

    The purpose of my “calling” bottom at 20% under peak for most sellers and up to 37% under peak for huge bargains at foreclosure, is so that people have a range.

    I AM A REAL ESTATE AGENT and the economist side of me is NOT political or self serving. I have to give advices to people who are buying and selling homes, and to do that I need to be “a student of the market”.

    You said: “This is also essentially “doublespeak

  40. Ardell,

    I’m sorry to hear about the position your daughter and Peter are in, that is awful.

    I had written a reply to your last message, but just deleted it. I get what you’re trying to say – I just disagree with your method of communicating it. I think there is a bit of a conflict of interest with a real estate agent calling the bottom of the market. I think we can safely agree to disagree and drop the back and forth on it. We can always revisit the topic in 9-12 months and see where the market is then. 🙂

  41. Thank you, gene.

    I really appreciate your response. I don’t know much about the military, but everyone is surprised that after two tours of duty in Afghanistan and the second one extended, that he was “called back” after he’s been home. Apparently this is rare, but his friends are getting the same Fed-Ex.

    Not only is the baby only one month old, but the wedding (reception, they are already married) of May 15 has to be cancelled, as his orders are for April 5th. Plus, they just put a $750 deposit on the hall in Marymoor Park last week, and they won’t refund it.

    It was a bad night. I spent the afternoon with her, but she is just afraid he won’t be coming back. She’s really beside herself.

    I really, really appreciate your cutting me some slack today.

  42. Thank you, gene.

    I really appreciate your response. I don’t know much about the military, but everyone is surprised that after two tours of duty in Afghanistan and the second one extended, that he was “called back” after he’s been home. Apparently this is rare, but his friends are getting the same Fed-Ex.

    Not only is the baby only one month old, but the wedding (reception, they are already married) of May 15 has to be cancelled, as his orders are for April 5th. Plus, they just put a $750 deposit on the hall in Marymoor Park last week, and they won’t refund it.

    It was a bad night. I spent the afternoon with her, but she is just afraid he won’t be coming back. She’s really beside herself.

    I really, really appreciate your cutting me some slack today.

  43. Ardell,

    I was especially surprised to hear him being called back after a couple tours. Over the last few months the military has been meeting or exceeding their recruitment levels due to the job/economy situation. It sounds like even with the new recruits they want more experienced personnel for the “surge” in Afghanistan – and from what you’re saying, he has the experience there.

    The whole “war” thing is a tough issue – I just wish we (as a country and a world) would start to better address the underlying causes of extremism, rather than trying to “treat” the symptoms. At this point though there is so much hatred and resentment that some people try to sabotage any positive efforts to address those underlying causes.

    Good luck to your family and I hope Peter, and all of the soldiers we have around the world, return safely!

    Gene

  44. Ardell,

    I was especially surprised to hear him being called back after a couple tours. Over the last few months the military has been meeting or exceeding their recruitment levels due to the job/economy situation. It sounds like even with the new recruits they want more experienced personnel for the “surge” in Afghanistan – and from what you’re saying, he has the experience there.

    The whole “war” thing is a tough issue – I just wish we (as a country and a world) would start to better address the underlying causes of extremism, rather than trying to “treat” the symptoms. At this point though there is so much hatred and resentment that some people try to sabotage any positive efforts to address those underlying causes.

    Good luck to your family and I hope Peter, and all of the soldiers we have around the world, return safely!

    Gene

  45. I really don’t know much about the military at all. I thought people signed up for 4 years, so when they extended his 2nd tour and he was in over 4 years, I thought that was the end of it.

    Apparently you “technically” sign up for 8 years, but they usually let you out after 4 years of active duty. Now he has to go back for 424 days? If anyone knows about these military things, your input appreciated. I don’t like grilling them on the details in their distress.

  46. The Seattle Home Show was pleasantly crowded today (even on Valentines) however in talking with the vendors it was the same across the board. Fear of buying anything that would involve credit and/or payments from patrons.
    Today I took another 2 calls on clients who are upside down on their condos. They have decided to NOT make payments to see what is going to be offered to them in 90 days. One is upside down 40% and the other 30%. They heard one of their neighbors stopped payment and the loan was reworked. Now they are going to “try” it. I hear this day after day.

    The Country is in far more trouble then even I have ever imagined. Don’t get me started on the unsecured markets of credit with the likes of AXP and C. Listen to what the CEO’s are telling us and you will realize we barely entered the second inning of a very long depressing game of epic proportions.

  47. The Seattle Home Show was pleasantly crowded today (even on Valentines) however in talking with the vendors it was the same across the board. Fear of buying anything that would involve credit and/or payments from patrons.
    Today I took another 2 calls on clients who are upside down on their condos. They have decided to NOT make payments to see what is going to be offered to them in 90 days. One is upside down 40% and the other 30%. They heard one of their neighbors stopped payment and the loan was reworked. Now they are going to “try” it. I hear this day after day.

    The Country is in far more trouble then even I have ever imagined. Don’t get me started on the unsecured markets of credit with the likes of AXP and C. Listen to what the CEO’s are telling us and you will realize we barely entered the second inning of a very long depressing game of epic proportions.

  48. Ray,

    I’m hearing good things from buyers and bad things from sellers. Just saw an amazing deal (not a short sale) sell in 4 days. But the seller priced it pretty close to the formula I suggest in my post and in the article.

    Anytime I see a seller pricing “at bottom”, I’m seeing a property go into escrow. Tell me about a property on the Eastside or North of Downtown Seattle priced 20% under peak, that isn’t a short sale or bank owned property, that isn’t in escrow.

    You can email it to me, since we can’t show other agents listings, and I’ll check it out. Not many sellers are willing to price “at bottom”, but at least they know where they need to be if a property isn’t selling.

  49. Colleen said (over on my blog) :

    I read this morning’s PI article and have to say I am very surprised that we are suppose to price our homes at 20% below what they were at peak–that would put our home below the recently assessed value.

    We purchased for $185K 14 years ago and have put a minimum of $80K into it. There was a reasonable standard that you could expect to double your money in 10 years–we are at 14 years. In 2006 the market appraisal was $486K–so you are telling me its now only going to sell for $388K? That is ludicrous. And buyers are going to get incentives on top of these ludicrous prices?

    Our home was just assessed at $411K–so we are suppose to sell for less than that?? OK–if that is the pill I need to swallow I will have to figure out a way to move and NOT sell..because we would not EVEN consider it unless we could walk away with $415 K (before closing fees, etc).

  50. I’m answering Colleen’s comment here, as the comment function on my blog sucks.

    1) “…that would put our home below the recently assessed value.”

    Many if not most homes, are worth less than 2009 assessed values. Those calculations were done well before the market hit bottom. Sellers should be looking at 2008 assessed values for the most part, and not the upgraded 2009 values.

    2) “We purchased for $185K 14 years ago and have put a minimum of $80K into it. There was a reasonable standard that you could expect to double your money in 10 years–we are at 14 years.”

    If you are thinking 2X what you paid, that would be $370,000. You don’t get to double the $80,000 you put into it after you bought it. There are thousands of examples of “return on improvements” and almost none give you back double on most any improvement. If you put in a new kitchen 10 years ago, the return might be 50%. If you put in new carpet 10 years ago, the return would be zero. If you put on a new roof 14 years ago, it only has 4-6 years left on it, so again, ou couldn’t possibly get 2X what you paid for it.

    3) “In 2006 the market appraisal was $486K–so you are telling me its now only going to sell for $388K?”

    2006 was not the market peak. 7/07 was the peak for most houses.

    4) “Our home was just assessed at $411K–so we are suppose to sell for less than that??”

    I don’t know your house, so I don’t know what value peak was for your house. I also don’t know what you spent $80,000 on and whether that overimproved for your neighborhood or not. Try looking at 1.1 times 2008 assessed value and if you email me your address and photos of the improvements, I’ll comment further without revealing your name or address.

  51. I think the term bottom is what I contend we are nowhere near. I do believe the Buyers who are closing in Seattle and Eastside may have perceived they found a bottom. Trust me when I say this……..I hope you are right but I find no logic based on facts and what the Capital Markets are telling us.

    The mantra of homeownership has changed rapidly and the ownership of a home has become a LEAD WEIGHT around the neck of home buyers. The option of renting has become a blessing for so many for they do NOT want to pay property taxes, insurance, and upkeep on a depreciating asset.

    So much is riding on the Obama administration for the entire world and I have learned long ago that placing so much trust in the FED inevitably will end up very poorly. Home owners will continue to walk in EPIC amounts unless incentives to stay in the home (ie principle reduction) occur. However, principle reduction will indeed cause anarchy among homeowners who have paid on-time. Round and round it will go into a spiral of debt.

    I will say this again because it is so very important. People will NOT stay in their homes when they are upside down. The country is in a horrible situation and I have come to believe that the truth of what lies ahead is inevitable.

    As a real estate Broker I want people to buy and be happy. When I’m asked my opinion I base it on facts from what the major CEO’s are telling us. When someone takes the time to listen to the GE, BAC,C, AXP, F, GM, EP, ABK,MBI, LEN, THC, AIG conference calls and listen to what the Ceo’s are telling us the picture is very DIRE. There is no sugar coating it. Nationalization of the banks is becoming more and more inevitable and the wiping out of the common shareholder ,who have already suffered massive losses in their 401k’s, is even more discouraging. Its a vicious circle.

    Ardell I encourage you to watch House of Cards on CNBC. It just aired on Thursday and has already won many awards. When we understand how exactly we entered this mess with the Greenspan Put to the failure of the Bernanke Straddle you will realize that the road we are on has truly never been travelled.

    As an active trader for over 2 decades I have learned to always listen to what the markets are telling us. We are writing the history books as we speak and I wait for Timothy Geitners plan going forward more then anyone in history .

  52. I think the term bottom is what I contend we are nowhere near. I do believe the Buyers who are closing in Seattle and Eastside may have perceived they found a bottom. Trust me when I say this……..I hope you are right but I find no logic based on facts and what the Capital Markets are telling us.

    The mantra of homeownership has changed rapidly and the ownership of a home has become a LEAD WEIGHT around the neck of home buyers. The option of renting has become a blessing for so many for they do NOT want to pay property taxes, insurance, and upkeep on a depreciating asset.

    So much is riding on the Obama administration for the entire world and I have learned long ago that placing so much trust in the FED inevitably will end up very poorly. Home owners will continue to walk in EPIC amounts unless incentives to stay in the home (ie principle reduction) occur. However, principle reduction will indeed cause anarchy among homeowners who have paid on-time. Round and round it will go into a spiral of debt.

    I will say this again because it is so very important. People will NOT stay in their homes when they are upside down. The country is in a horrible situation and I have come to believe that the truth of what lies ahead is inevitable.

    As a real estate Broker I want people to buy and be happy. When I’m asked my opinion I base it on facts from what the major CEO’s are telling us. When someone takes the time to listen to the GE, BAC,C, AXP, F, GM, EP, ABK,MBI, LEN, THC, AIG conference calls and listen to what the Ceo’s are telling us the picture is very DIRE. There is no sugar coating it. Nationalization of the banks is becoming more and more inevitable and the wiping out of the common shareholder ,who have already suffered massive losses in their 401k’s, is even more discouraging. Its a vicious circle.

    Ardell I encourage you to watch House of Cards on CNBC. It just aired on Thursday and has already won many awards. When we understand how exactly we entered this mess with the Greenspan Put to the failure of the Bernanke Straddle you will realize that the road we are on has truly never been travelled.

    As an active trader for over 2 decades I have learned to always listen to what the markets are telling us. We are writing the history books as we speak and I wait for Timothy Geitners plan going forward more then anyone in history .

  53. Pingback: Sunday Night Stats - Snapshot of “bottom” | Rain City Guide

  54. Thanks Matt!

    As an update on these comments.

    1) Peter did NOT have to do a 3rd tour. YAY!

    2) We are still running above that “bottom” call. But 4th Quarter 2010 is likely going to dip lower.

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