I’ve been reporting the change in volume and MPPSF. But let’s go back a bit so you can see the change from an historical perspective, and also help put things into focus as we move forward from here. By seeing how we have gotten to where we are, you can better determine if what is happening currently and in the future is “normal” for that time of year, or a change from the normal relationships of quantity and price from quarter to quarter.
Format is Year, Quarter, number of units sold and median price per square foot.
King County Condos
2000 – 1Q x,xxx – $xxx, 2Q 1,574 – $154, 3Q 1,725 – $157, 4Q 1,491 – $162
2001 – 1Q 1,444 – $163, 2Q 1,770 – $165, 3Q 1,816 – $174, 4Q 1,380 – $166
2002 – 1Q 1,464 – $168, 2Q 1,885 – $172, 3Q 1,885 – $172, 4Q 1,642 – $173
2003 – 1Q 1,518 – $168, 2Q 2,011 – $179, 3Q 2,338 – $184, 4Q 1,911 – $183
2004 – 1Q 1,694 – $188, 2Q 2,636 – $199, 3Q 2,540 – $196, 4Q 2,176 – $195
2005 – 1Q 2,066 – $198, 2Q 2,925 – $209, 3Q 2,769 – $226, 4Q 2,266 – $224
2006 – 1Q 1,956 – $242, 2Q 2.748 – $252, 3Q 2,737 – $269, 4Q 2,217 – $278
2007 – 1Q 2,042 – $295, 2Q 2,862 – $302, 3Q 2,676 – $311, 4Q 1,618 – $294
2008 – 1Q 1,258 – $299, 2Q 1,126 – $288 (2Q incomplete data – postings as of 6/16/08)
King Couny Condos
Active Listings: 3,964 – DOWN 22 – median price $325,000 – MPPSF asking $320 – DOM 60
In Escrow: 946 – UP 8 – median price $288,250 – MPPSF asking $288 – DOM – 50
Sold YTD : 2,384 – UP 97 – median list price $294,950 – median sold price $289,000 – median PPSF – $294 DOM 48
King County Residential
2000 – 1Q x,xxx – $xxx, 2Q 6,111 – $130, 3Q 5,994 – $127, 4Q 5,248 – $128
2001 – 1Q 4,662 – $131, 2Q 6,336 – $135, 3Q 6,454 – $133, 4Q 4,963 – $131
2002 – 1Q 4,964 – $134, 2Q 6,740 – $140, 3Q 6,320 – $140, 4Q 5,897 – $138
2003 – 1Q 5,479 – $141, 2Q 7,783 – $143, 3Q 8,683 – $148, 4Q 6,859 – $147
2004 – 1Q 5,650 – $152, 2Q 9,237 – $160, 3Q 8.737 – $163, 4Q 7,467 – $165
2005 – 1Q 6,402 – $173, 2Q 9,093 – $185, 3Q 9,131 – $192, 4Q 7,301 – $195
2006 – 1Q 5,596 – $201, 2Q 8,248 – $214, 3Q 7,771 – $216, 4Q 6,204 – $217
2007 – 1Q 5,304 – $222, 2Q 7,393 – $230, 3Q 7,944 – $229, 4Q 4,301 – $221
2008 – 1Q 3,640 – $219, 2Q 3,471- $220 (2Q incomplete data – postings as of 6/16/08)
Residential King county
In Escrow: 2,987 – UP 80 – median asking price $448,900 – DOM 46 – MPPSF $213
SOLD YTD: 7,112 – UP 306 – median sold price $439,900- DOM 49 – MPPSF $220
Actively for sale 11,817- UP 64 – MPPSF <$800,000 is $220- MPPSF >$800,000 is $337
Stats not compiled or published by NWMLS. (Required disclosure)
Using the above as a table of reference, you can calculate the value of your home if you bought it after the first quarter of 2000.
Let’s do mine. I bought it in the 3rd quarter of 2005 for $850,000. The median increase from 3rd Quarter of 05 to date is a 15% increase. $192 to $220 is a 15% increase. $850,000 plus 15% is $977,500. Zillow Price is $973,000.
By calculating the change in median price as a percentage by using the data above, and then applying that percentage to your price paid, you can get a ballpark value for your home (if you bought it since 03/01/2000). Then you can check it against Zillow as a second step. Mine seems to work, putting it in the $975,000 range.
Is it on the market?
Not yet. Soon. I planted the begonia this weekend. My future son-in-law is out painting the white picket fence right now 🙂 Kim fixed the latch on the gate.
I’m waiting for consistently decent weather. Sometime after the 4th of July. My daughter and Peter are here with all their “stuff” until they move into their own place. Needless to say I am taking the bull by the horns and found them a place and had them secure it on Saturday. Though it is nice to have Peter here to help get the place ready. We’ve been busy this month. Busier than anytime since last April.
Ardell, good luck on the house! And I agree. I am busier now than anytime since April 2007. It feels good!
It’s definitely not “picture day” at my house yet 🙂 Poor Mary’s in the kitchen right now trying to clean up the mess I made baking lasagnas for yesterday’s Father’s Day dinner with Kim and his daughter Chloe. We cleaned up most of it, but I can sure make a mess of a stove with pasta sauce splatter 🙂
Busy in a way that will show up in increased nwmls pending sales or busy in a way that will show up in increased nwmls inventory or both?
tj,
You forgot the third category…pending to closed. Oh, and the fourth category, vandalized listing flooded out and coming off market, so I guess that’s a “decrease in inventory busy”. If the offer coming in tonight isn’t good enough, then there’s a no status change at all “busy” 🙂 June is generally a big month for sales closing, even if they went pending a couple of months ago.
3 are leaving pending and going to closed (1 seller and 3 buyers)
2 are adding to inventory, one of which is getting an offer within the hour, or so the call said. (2 sellers)
1 added to pending at the end of last week. (1 buyer)
So 4 sellers and 4 buyers. 8 in all. 4 closing out, 1 into escrow, 1 in negotiation, 2 new on market, can cancelled for damage. That doesn’t count the busy of on market nothing happening regarding stats and “buyers in waiting” nothing happening as to status.
All “busy” doesn’t equal a pending or an inventory. Many “busy” items are simply work with no result. 1 out of several Open Houses, for instance, equalled a listing sold. The rest were just hours racked up.
Not bad, at least you have 3 closings which I guess is when it says “kaching” in the register!
that must be how they calculate values on hgtv…
fillmore,
I don’t watch hgtv. Too much like my everyday life. It’s like watching the Sopranos 🙂 How they made such a huge deal of a guy reaching into the fridge for some capicolla…
Last year HGTV asked me to do a show, host for a month actually, where we valued property after an owner made improvements. Too much of a WAG for me. Has anyone seen that show? Do the guesses at after-improvement value make any sense?
maybe im the only one not completely following your logic here, but it would seem to me that if youre cherrypicking the current zestimate as accurate data reference, at a minimum, you should also consider the ten year historical chart.
the bubble that was created beginning 02-03 was artificial, and we are on the backside slide toward normalizing prices. your home hasnt actually appreciated 15% since the height of the bubble unless youre able to sell it at your predicted appraisal. and if youre able to do that, id do it before we double back over 05 prices and continue the trend down.
Fillmore,
I wouldn’t use Zillow “as accurate data reference”, especially on my house that has been known to bounce up and down by over $150,000 overnight. But after I value a property by other means, I like to check the Zestimate for fun. My Zestimate was $1,070,000 when I first decided to sell it and thought I’d list it for $999,950. Now I’m thinking more like $949,950.
I totally agree about beating the doubling back over 05 prices. I also agree that it hasn’t appreciated 15% from the peak of the market, but the peak of the market was in the 3rd quarter of 2007 if you look at the charts. We’re currently down 4.3% from peak. We were up 19.5% from mid 2005 to peak, and now were down to 15% up.
Ardell, I agree. That show is one of the stupidest things I’ve seen on HGTV. I sort of wonder why they even need improvements. Why not just have a TV show where all the agent does is a CMA! Now that would be high quality entertainment! 😉 😀
Kary,
Have you seen the show? I was wondering if after the agents guess the after value, they test the accuracy by actually selling the house.
Come to think of it, they may have asked me to be on the panel for a month, as I remember thinking NO WAY do I want to be “The Simon” of a Real Estate “Reality” show. We all know I’d be “The Simon” 🙂
I’ve seen it only once or twice, and seemingly the pronouncement of value is the end of the process.
Hey, for the right amount of money and the opportunity to call these shows supid, we can all be a “group Simon” 🙂 Those shows are soooo stupid, I can’t even watch an entire episode.
Leanne,
I think they are hugely popular…or were during the hot market frenzy. Everytime I went to a store to get stuff for staging a property the checkout person and people in line kept saying, “Oh, I see this on HGTV!” They just love the whole concept of the makeover shows. I myself was quite moved by the makeover of the Kirkland house and it’s airing at The Performance Center with the donatee family present.