[Editor’s note: I am more than pleased to introduce, in fact I’m quite excited to introduce and welcome, Jerry Gropp, Residential AIA to the Rain City Guide family of writers. Jerry specializes in MCM, Mid Century Modern design, and has a passion for seeing these homes updated. Jerry is a native of Seattle. His own current home on Mercer Island which he updated, is an excellent example of how his talents mixed with his passion for what he does, meld into the best of what the Pacific Northwest has to offer in home style. Jerry is a graduate of the University of Washington’s School of Architecture. His talent combined with his passion, have quickly made me a huge fan of his, and I’m sure you will be a fan of his writings in short order. Welcome Jerry! I SO look forward to some passionate discussions with you about MCM vs….just about everything else the area has to offer.]
While waiting for the birds to sing, my wife Patty and I decided to take a break in Puebla, Mexico– one of the old/new “Colonial Cities” that we hadn’t visited.
In all the years I’ve practiced custom residential architecure I’ve seen the same thing- nothing happening homewise until somewhat sunnier weather happens.
This year will be no different- pent-up demand combined with stimulus measures will probably get things going again- with this difference– no longer will just any old indifferently-designed “Craftsman” or “Bellevue Chateau” be snapped-up. Jumbo “ARM”s will not be available- all to the long-term health of the industry.
Jeremy –
I would like to take this opportunity to a) welcome you to RC, and b) encourage you to write with a bit more clarity, focus and reasoning.
I do have a few issues with your short post…
First off, in all your years of doing whatever you do, have you ever seen a comparable global economic meltdown? Probably not. So comparing your past experiences in architectural design with the current housing crisis/global financial pandemic is probably not a good idea.
Secondly – and I have to say that if I hear the phrase “pent-up demand” one more time I will probably throttle the utterer – where, exactly, is this demand you speak of? Can you refer us to even five folks who are now saying “I can’t wait to purchase a house – now!” And even if they are willing to purchase, how will they finance the house, and how will they service the mortgage? And how will they accumulate equity in a still-declining market?
And the stimulus package – please do elaborate on how you think it will help. I would really like to hear your thoughts on this. Especially the part about the tax credit – and how it’s not a credit, but a loan…
And, apropos of nothing, you posit that today’s more discriminating buyer will surely differentiate between “indifferently-designed” and otherwise-designed housing. Hmmm.
Lastly, by saying it’s a good thing that Jumbo-ARMs will not be available, are you implying that regular ARMs are cool? What about neg-am option ARMs? Or DAPs?
So in closing, I will ask that you please write cogently and concisely in your next post. Educate yourself and, in turn, educate your reader.
Blogs are all about that.
Jeremy –
I would like to take this opportunity to a) welcome you to RC, and b) encourage you to write with a bit more clarity, focus and reasoning.
I do have a few issues with your short post…
First off, in all your years of doing whatever you do, have you ever seen a comparable global economic meltdown? Probably not. So comparing your past experiences in architectural design with the current housing crisis/global financial pandemic is probably not a good idea.
Secondly – and I have to say that if I hear the phrase “pent-up demand” one more time I will probably throttle the utterer – where, exactly, is this demand you speak of? Can you refer us to even five folks who are now saying “I can’t wait to purchase a house – now!” And even if they are willing to purchase, how will they finance the house, and how will they service the mortgage? And how will they accumulate equity in a still-declining market?
And the stimulus package – please do elaborate on how you think it will help. I would really like to hear your thoughts on this. Especially the part about the tax credit – and how it’s not a credit, but a loan…
And, apropos of nothing, you posit that today’s more discriminating buyer will surely differentiate between “indifferently-designed” and otherwise-designed housing. Hmmm.
Lastly, by saying it’s a good thing that Jumbo-ARMs will not be available, are you implying that regular ARMs are cool? What about neg-am option ARMs? Or DAPs?
So in closing, I will ask that you please write cogently and concisely in your next post. Educate yourself and, in turn, educate your reader.
Blogs are all about that.
You may be right. We might indeed have a bit of an uptick in real-estate this year, what with all the stimulus measures and all. Unfortunately, I suspect it will just be a blip before the global depression grips even harder, dragging things considerably lower in the years ahead.
If local firms keep shedding jobs (i.e. as global demand contracts) then it is highly unlikely we will see any sustainable recovery in the real-estate industry. The stimulus efforts are ultimately doomed to fail since they are just drops in the bucket of collapsed global finance. The $14 trillion in US bail-outs and stimulus so far don’t come close to making up for the loss of the $50 trillion private credit markets.
Over the next 4 to 6 years we are likely to see Real-estate real-estate prices come down some 80% from peak (just as the Dow will likely be in the sub 2000 range).
Of course, I have outlined the case for deflation in my in-depth podcast on the subject.
http://surkanstance.blogspot.com/2009/01/deflation-101-podcast.html
Jeremy –
JG- First of all- It’s Jerry
I would like to take this opportunity to a) welcome you to RC, and b) encourage you to write with a bit more clarity, focus and reasoning.
JG- Thanks- we should all strive for these things as I’m sure you so intend.
I do have a few issues with your short post…
JG- It was intended to be short.
First off, in all your years of doing whatever you do, have you ever seen a comparable global economic meltdown? Probably not. So comparing your past experiences in architectural design with the current housing crisis/global financial pandemic is probably not a good idea.
JG- Agree- but one can hope. As to “whatever I do”- and have been doing for a long time, I hope you’ll look at my WebSite- http://jgropp2.googlepages.com/alterationsanadditions
Secondly – and I have to say that if I hear the phrase “pent-up demand” one more time I will probably throttle the utterer – where, exactly, is this demand you speak of? Can you refer us to even five folks who are now saying “I can’t wait to purchase a house – now!” And even if they are willing to purchase, how will they finance the house, and how will they service the mortgage? And how will they accumulate equity in a still-declining market?
JG- Both the car market and the housing market are highly cyclical and have seen, will see many swings.
And the stimulus package – please do elaborate on how you think it will help. I would really like to hear your thoughts on this. Especially the part about the tax credit – and how it’s not a credit, but a loan…
JG- In spite of Rush Limbaugh and others hoping this will fail, I cannot do so.
And, apropos of nothing, you posit that today’s more discriminating buyer will surely differentiate between “indifferently-designed” and otherwise-designed housing. Hmmm.
JG- I’ve spent a lot of years trying to create these “more discriminating buyer”(s)- with some success- not a lot- but some. Example- For a number of these years I was chairman of the Seattle Times “Home of the Month” and also the Seattle PI’s similar program.
Lastly, by saying it’s a good thing that Jumbo-ARMs will not be available, are you implying that regular ARMs are cool? What about neg-am option ARMs? Or DAPs?
JG- Heavens no! ARMs are pernicious to the core in my book. However, for some borrowers, they’re what’s available when needed.
So in closing, I will ask that you please write cogently and concisely in your next post. Educate yourself and, in turn, educate your reader.
JG- Good advice for us all.
Blogs are all about that.
JG- So true- in theory at least.
Thanks in advance. and
JG-to you-
Jeremy –
JG- First of all- It’s Jerry
I would like to take this opportunity to a) welcome you to RC, and b) encourage you to write with a bit more clarity, focus and reasoning.
JG- Thanks- we should all strive for these things as I’m sure you so intend.
I do have a few issues with your short post…
JG- It was intended to be short.
First off, in all your years of doing whatever you do, have you ever seen a comparable global economic meltdown? Probably not. So comparing your past experiences in architectural design with the current housing crisis/global financial pandemic is probably not a good idea.
JG- Agree- but one can hope. As to “whatever I do”- and have been doing for a long time, I hope you’ll look at my WebSite- http://jgropp2.googlepages.com/alterationsanadditions
Secondly – and I have to say that if I hear the phrase “pent-up demand” one more time I will probably throttle the utterer – where, exactly, is this demand you speak of? Can you refer us to even five folks who are now saying “I can’t wait to purchase a house – now!” And even if they are willing to purchase, how will they finance the house, and how will they service the mortgage? And how will they accumulate equity in a still-declining market?
JG- Both the car market and the housing market are highly cyclical and have seen, will see many swings.
And the stimulus package – please do elaborate on how you think it will help. I would really like to hear your thoughts on this. Especially the part about the tax credit – and how it’s not a credit, but a loan…
JG- In spite of Rush Limbaugh and others hoping this will fail, I cannot do so.
And, apropos of nothing, you posit that today’s more discriminating buyer will surely differentiate between “indifferently-designed” and otherwise-designed housing. Hmmm.
JG- I’ve spent a lot of years trying to create these “more discriminating buyer”(s)- with some success- not a lot- but some. Example- For a number of these years I was chairman of the Seattle Times “Home of the Month” and also the Seattle PI’s similar program.
Lastly, by saying it’s a good thing that Jumbo-ARMs will not be available, are you implying that regular ARMs are cool? What about neg-am option ARMs? Or DAPs?
JG- Heavens no! ARMs are pernicious to the core in my book. However, for some borrowers, they’re what’s available when needed.
So in closing, I will ask that you please write cogently and concisely in your next post. Educate yourself and, in turn, educate your reader.
JG- Good advice for us all.
Blogs are all about that.
JG- So true- in theory at least.
Thanks in advance. and
JG-to you-
Jerry wrote: “pent-up demand combined with stimulus measures will probably get things going again”
Actually, demand seems to be shrinking permanently. There is a considerable amount of data coming out that shows a huge number of people are fundamentally re-adjusting their housing requirements to require LESS space. Families are having kids double-up in rooms, and there is huge increase in people looking for roommates (even seniors).
And don’t forget all the people who are now moving to the fast growing tent cities. This reduces over-all demand for conventional residential dwellings.
There may indeed be some people who are just delaying a purchase until the economy settles down, but there are clearly many others who are fundamentally down-sizing their housing requirements.
There is a discussion over at SeattleBubble that mentions specific data about the growth in roommates.
http://seattlebubble.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2150
As to the preceding- “Actually, demand seems to be shrinking permanently. There is a considerable amount of data coming out that shows a huge number of people are fundamentally re-adjusting their housing requirements to require LESS space”. JG- I think that’s healthy. Our home is 2400 SF. we drive a Prius and a Corolla.
Jerry Gropp wrote: “I think that’s healthy.”
Yes, I agree that it is healthy for people to re-adjust their percieved housing needs downward (except for the tent-cities, maybe). That said, these re-adjustments kind of cancel out “pent up demand”, making it unlikely that there will be any significant increase in real-estate sales in the near term.
Jerry Gropp wrote: “I think that’s healthy.
Here’s a link to something we don’t want to go back to- http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/16/magazine/16brothers.html?_r=2&scp=15&sq=Magazine-%20Toll%20Brothers&st=cse
Welcome Jerry!
I’m actually excited to have an architect start posting!
I’ve always wondered (in very general terms), what it takes to get a custom home made (in time & cost). If you wouldn’t mind at some point, I’d love to see a post on it.
I’ve always heard that “it’s cheaper” to build your own then to buy something.. do you think that’s true?
Welcome Jerry!
I’m actually excited to have an architect start posting!
I’ve always wondered (in very general terms), what it takes to get a custom home made (in time & cost). If you wouldn’t mind at some point, I’d love to see a post on it.
I’ve always heard that “it’s cheaper” to build your own then to buy something.. do you think that’s true?
I’m really pleased to be contributing to Rain City Guide. Already in the works a JG Post addressing Everett_Tom’s questions above. Watch this space. JG
Thanks Jerry, I look forward to it.
jerry, as youve probably noticed, its a tad more hostile here than chatting about mcm over at lottaliving. but welcome, and strap it down for a bumpy ride.
fillmore- Well yes- I have noticed. We’re all in for “a bumpy ride” and we’d better learn to get along- or it’ll be even bumpier. As for me- a salesman’s son, I’ve always believed in a good product, truly well-conceived, tailored to an educated (not brainwashed) market and sold by professionals. JG
Once again it just gets worse at the rain city guide.
For quite a while now the “birds have been singing” and there’s no sign of a recovery yet. I think this is mainly due to the overlarge inventory of foreclosed homes suddenly dumped on the market. When people recognize this as an opportunity to get a renewable home at a discount (as I did years ago), these homes will be sold and remade into a viable part of our good family homes in the community. JG
https://knol.google.com/k/jerry-gropp-architect-aia/jerry-gropp-architect-aia-ps/246qxuxd260sm/135#
For quite a while now the “birds have been singing” and there’s no sign of a recovery yet. I think this is mainly due to the overlarge inventory of foreclosed homes suddenly dumped on the market. When people recognize this as an opportunity to get a renewable home at a discount (as I did years ago), these homes will be sold and remade into a viable part of our good family homes in the community. JG
https://knol.google.com/k/jerry-gropp-architect-aia/jerry-gropp-architect-aia-ps/246qxuxd260sm/135#
As I said last July- For quite a while now the “birds have been singing
As I said last July- For quite a while now the “birds have been singing
I was right- I can do this just as well in Guanajuato, Mexico- a wonderful place with lots of sunshine. JG
I’m back from Mexico, the birds are singing when I go out to get the paper in the morning. Let’s see what happens now. Jerry
The “Birds have been singing” for quite a while now and the architect part of the Real Estate “industry” is coming to life too. Those who took advantage of the down market to buy good Mid-Century Modern homes are using their lowered price savings to update their purchase. Here’s a 1965 home that I’m updating starting with a new Entry. After that, we’ll be redoing the ’60s Kitchen into a large Family Kitchen with the enlarged family eating space we’re creating at the same time as the new Entry. (Stay tuned for more). J-
Click here: Updating your “MCM” bargain- – a knol by Jerry Gropp Architect AIA
Here’s a better “Updating your “MCM