The FOMC wrapped up their two day meeting leaving the Funds Rate unchanged. The target rate is remaining at 0-0.25%. Now that this decision has been formally announced, everyone will be reviewing the Fed’s statement for clues on when they will begin to raise the Fed Funds Rate.
From today’s FOMC Statement:
…the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.
As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve will buy up to $300 billion of Treasury securities by autumn.
In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.
What’s your take by August ?
5% or 6% par conforming rates?
Brian, you’d really have to toss a coin to guess mortgage rates. The old factors that once were useful with predicting rates are no longer reliable.
Today’s statement from the Fed restate’s their commitment to purchasing MBS and agency debt… however, it could be a drop in the bucket against a strong current of rising mortgage rates. I half expected rates to improve a little today since the Fed said they believe “inflation will remain subdued for some time”…perhaps Wall St doesn’t buy it?
When you say “par”, do you mean no orignation fee, no discount points? If that’s what you mean, then I think in August we may see high 5’s for the criteria I quote at RCG.
What’s your prediction?
My definition of par is, as you quote, a 1% origination fee with no discount points. I think we’ll actually get down to 5.0%, in July before we pop back up to the high 5s. After July, I think “par” will be between 5,25%-5.75% through Christmas…
…I guess. Who the hell really knows anymore?