Earlier tonight I calculated some current results comparing the Spring selling Seasons of 2005 through 2009. The results are fairly redundant and not much changed from my bottom call back in February. I did some detailed stats for Woodinville and Greenlake-Fremont 98103, and there are not many changes or surprises. My call of 20% under peak pricing unless it is a short sale or bank-owned property, is continuing to hold, and I expect that to stay the same for at least a couple of years.
In 98103 one surprise was as to volume sold between single family homes and townhomes. With the decline in single family home prices, the volume of those sold did not decline from last year, in fact it increased slightly at the expense of townhome sales. (Caption on the graph should be 98103 Median Sold Price) and that excludes the townhomes. Towhomes are running at $338,000 vs. $429,475 for the same period last year.
I would expect prices to fall at some point doing the 4th quarter, as usual, and then next year’s Spring Bounce period to run at about the current levels.
(required disclosure by NWMLS: Stats are not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service)
Just home from a 2 week trip and ready to hit the blogs………..I’ll start with Ardell………Housing predictions?
The longest flat line this generation has EVER seen in housing with a downward bias over the next 5 years.
The short sales and foreclosures will continue and it will yield unrelenting pressure on the market this next 5 years. The masses will question the value of homeownership compared to renting and Mantra of owning a home will be questioned for a very long while due to property taxes, insurance, upkeep, and little to know appreciation.
Find your GEMS friends and take your time. I assure everyone there is no RUSH to purchase anything.
Just home from a 2 week trip and ready to hit the blogs………..I’ll start with Ardell………Housing predictions?
The longest flat line this generation has EVER seen in housing with a downward bias over the next 5 years.
The short sales and foreclosures will continue and it will yield unrelenting pressure on the market this next 5 years. The masses will question the value of homeownership compared to renting and Mantra of owning a home will be questioned for a very long while due to property taxes, insurance, upkeep, and little to know appreciation.
Find your GEMS friends and take your time. I assure everyone there is no RUSH to purchase anything.
Hi Ray,
Yes, 3-5 years of flatline with seasonal modest downward and upward pressures. Agree.
As to shortsales and foreclosures, that is an area to area issue. Some areas (neighborhoods) have very little if any pressure from short sales and foreclosures, and no expectation for that to change. You likely see fewer of those than I do (from what a gather from our one and only phone conversation).
Newer housing complexes can be the most volatile in that regard, given new homes depreciate from the time they close, even in a flat market. Also with everyone in the whole neighborhood buying in the same peak time frame, as in a new housing complex built and sold in 2007, there is an enormous chance that 25% to 30% of that one neighborhood will be short sales and foreclosures. Where you have a mixed neighborhood with little turnover in the peak periods, except for the evils of refinance, that neighborhood can remain very stable and be unaffected by short sale and foreclosure activity and stay flat at 20% down.
There is never a RUSH to purchase anything someone doesn’t need to have. If someone has a need to have it, there is much less reason not to do it now, than there was in 2008.
Very, very few people “need” to purchase a house. They may want to, but I can think of very few situations where they come place to needing to (the main reason is capital gains). Having said that, there are certainly many people who strongly want to own their home (or have a bank own it while they pay the bank back) and I won’t start a debate on the pros and cons of that at the moment.