I’m actually on the edge of my seat awaiting the results of the end of month King County stats for February. I love posting in real-time as I see the data for the first time as I am posting it here.
Remember, not all agents post their closings in a timely manner, so there will be some updating in the next few days. In fact I will be showing January YOY as well to pick up any late entries there also.
I’ll do January first for 2006, 2007 and 2008 in graph form. I’m off to get the numbers and post them in the graph data field.
The median home price for January of 2008 for single family residences is up 9% comparing 2008 with 2006 and up 1% from January of 2007.
Total Number of Sales is down 35.6% compared to January of 2006 and down 31.8% compared to January of 2007.
Days on market increased from 33 days in 2006 to 53 days in 2007 to 61 days in 2008. So those reduced number of homes sold are taking longer to sell for slightly better prices.
Now let’s look at the condo sales for January YOY.
Prices up around 21% compared to 2006 and holding steady compared to 2007. Remember, these are the numbers for the month of January compared Year over Year (YOY)
34% fewer condos sold in January of 2008 compared to January of 2006. 37% fewer condos sold in January of 2008 compared to January of 2007. This repeats what I have been saying, that last year some people who didn’t buy single family homes, bought condos instead. But this year sales are down even further for condos than for single family homes, greatly due to financing issues introduced in the latter part of 2007.
Days on market for condos increased from 27 days in 2006 to 38 days in 2007 to 61 days in 2008. That’s a pretty dramatic increase in days on market and coincidentally identical in 2008 to the days on market for single family homes.
OK…let’s all hold our breath for the February reports. It’s only March 2nd, so there WILL be some late additions which I will post next Sunday night. But we also had an extra day, it being a leap year.
February Prices were up 11.5% from 2006 to 2007 and are holding to a hair under for 2008 compared to 2007.
Days on market have increased from 24 to 43 to
57 56. Again taking much longer to sell at these prices.
I’m going to guess that with late arrivals posting in the next week that the volume continues to be down at least the 32% or so that we saw last month, and not the 38% or so showing in that graph. But still, not seeing an improvement for sure. We’ll catch up on late postings next week, but the trend appears to be continuing as to volume.
**UPDATE** Late postings as of March 6 coming in better than expected for residential sales at 29% drop compared to February of 2007. Graph has been modified to reflect most recent stats.
I did the number of sales first on the condos, so I’m going to post it that way. All I can say is I sure hope there are a LOT of late postings out there, because volume appears to be down as much as
47% as of right now. Let’s guess that to be not more than 40% just so we can all sleep tonight, and hope for the best. I’ll repost this next week in a corrected version after picking up late postings.
**UPDATE** as of March 6 with late postings, # of condo sales down 39% compared with Feb 2007. Graph has been edited to reflect late postings. Median days on market 43, no change in median sale price.
I had to go back and double check that one.
The slight downward affect on prices would suggest that the volume, while likely off for late postings is going to end up significantly down, and that is beginning to have a negative impact on prices.
On to the weekly Sunday Night Stats.
King County Residential Sales
Active/For Sale – 9,176 – UP 49 – median price $524,500 – UP $4,507
In Escrow – 2,584 – UP 27 – median price $449,950 – UP $50 (these are asking prices)
Closed YTD – 1,942 – UP 391 – median price $434,538 – DOWN $4,462
King Conty Condo Sales
Active/For Sale – 3,261 – UP 5 – median price $328,900 – UP $3,900
In Escrow – 868 – DOWN 14 – median price $308,500 – DOWN $6,500 (asking prices)
Closed YTD – 658 – UP 125 – median price $278,950 – DOWN $1,049
I feel like the 11 o’clock news tonight. Prices starting to trend downward and volume off significantly.
These stats are compiled and posted by ARDELL and NOT the NWMLS. This is a required disclaimer under current rules of membership.
During the week people should be posting more closings as of February month end and I will adjust the stats via strikeouts and corrections throughout the week.
“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.