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King County Residential Sales
Active/For Sale – 9,436 – UP 260 – median price $524,050 – UP $450
In Escrow – 2,628 – UP 44 – median price $449,000 – Down $950 (asking prices)
Closed YTD – 2,280 – UP 338 – median price $435,000 – UP $462
King Conty Condo Sales
Active/For Sale – 3,366 – UP 105 – median price $324,850 – DOWN $4,050
In Escrow – 868 – no change – median price $314,450 – UP $5,950 (asking prices)
Closed YTD – 762 – UP 104 – median price $280,000 – UP $1,050
Updated closings for February 2008
Adding late postings
Condos # of sales 394 for Feb. 2008 vs. 635 in Feb. 2007 – DOWN 38%
Residential # of sales 1,171 for Feb. 2008 vs. 1,640 in Feb. 2007 – DOWN 28.5%
Residential priced under $400,000
2,902 on market vs. 3,183 sold in the last six months
Residential priced under $600,000
5,753 on market vs. 5,798 sold in the last six months
Residential priced under $800,000
7,332 on market vs. 6,812 sold in the last six months
Residential priced under $1,000,000
8,090 on market vs. 7,231 sold in the last six months
Residential priced under $2,000,000
9,059 for sale vs. 7,636 sold in the last six months
Condos priced under $300,000
1,512 for sale vs. 1,658 sold in the last six months
Condos priced under $500,000
2,697 on market vs. 2,677 sold in the last six months
Condos priced under $800,000
3,086 on market vs 2,890 sold in the last six months
Condos priced under $1.5 million
3,277 on market vs. 2,929 sold in the last six months
“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.
Apparently stats are boring at the beginning of the month. 😉
Ardell –
Taking your analysis one step further, I calculated months of sales (SFH only, current inventory/last year’s sales *12)
LT $400k:
115.5$400-6005:
136.5$600-800k:
199.5$800k- 1mm:
2211$1mm – 2mm:
2914.5That seem right to you? Pretty sobering figures versus just looking at monthly absorption rates.
That doesn’t look right, deejayoh if 11 means eleven months of inventory and so on.
Let’s take that first category of Residential less than $400,000.
Currently for sale is 2,902
Sold on a 12 month rolling basis from 3/11/07 through today is 8,183 divided by 12 equals 673 a month. 2,902 divided by 673 equals:
a 4.3 month supply; not an 11 month supply.
If you use “last year” as 2007 calendar year you get 8,783 sales divided by 12, or 731 a month. 2,902 divided by 731 equals:
a 3.96 supply; not an 11 month supply
I used the last six months to accommodate the market change in August/September. Though I would expect the next six months to be a little better than the last six months, primarly due to seasonal differences, I still think it’s the most accurate method.
total number of sales 3,174 divided by six is 529
2,902 divided by 529 equals a 5.48 month supply, which is probably about a 5 months supply given seasonal factors.
Unless that 11 at the end of yours isn’t a # of month’s to absorb current inventory… If it is, I don’t see how you could get a number like that from the data unless you are comparing apples to oranges somehow. Are you sure you aren’t including condos in the inventory number and then excluding them from the sold number? That might account for the difference.
DJO,
That appears to be a huge glut in the upper end of the market. Those price are going to have to come down big time.
Ah – I was reading too quickly. Your post does say last six months. I was thinking it was 12 months – so all my “month” totals are twice as high as they should be. (current inventory/*6 month’s* sales * 6)
thanks for the clarification.
deejayoh,
I can do a strike out and half them if you like.
Matthew,
There are many fewer buyers than sellers as you get up in the numbers. I calculated more than I posted.
19 condos priced for $2M or more sold in 2007. 54 are currently for sale.
198 single family homes sold in 2007 between $2M and $4M. 232 are currently for sale.
My theory is that the single family market is dependent somewhat on the condo market, with a lag time. So the relationship of condos being down YOY by 38% and the single family market down only 28.5% is of much interest to me. If people can’t sell their condos to move up, that fact will at some point translate into fewer and fewer single family home sales somewhere down the line.
That’s what I mean by “I blog while I work”. Though others may not see what I am seeing, I post the data so I can come back later and see how the 10% spread between condos and residential plays out. If I am correct, that 10% difference will impact single family by the end of this season…say September or year end.
Ardell – that would be great. thx.
Done. Now THAT looks right to me, to answer your original question 🙂
I was told many years ago from someone much older and wiser than I, at the time, that if the condos don’t move well in the first two quarters, it will impact the single family market in the last two quarters. So let’s keep our eyes on that sobering condo stat of 38% down as to volume YOY.
Ardell –
When you say “If people can’t sell their condos to move up…” – are you saying moving from a condo to a house?
At the sub $1M mark I agree that young couples tend to move to houses once kids arrive, but in the $1M+ condo market I see many of these owners are moving from houses to condos.
What are you seeing?
Matt,
Of the 2,967 condos sold in the last six months, only 42 of them were over a million dollars. I don’t base much of my market watch on what is happening in that small of a segment of the marketplace.
While there are 193 for sale in that price range at the moment, I pay more attention to the fact that there were only 7 buyers or sellers in King County per month, affected by what happens in that market.