Sunday Night Stats – Prices Down

Asking prices of property coming on market continue to inch up, even as prices of property going into escrow and closing continues to inch down. 

As to prices, so far condos are down 6.7% from peak pricing;  Residential is down 4.8% from peak and residential “in escrow” down 6.5% from peak pricing.  (I am showing the peak price in bold in the charts below for easy comparison)

So far it looks like this will be the first quarter in a very long time where the median price per square foot is trending downward in the condo market, and flat at best in the residential market.  Considering that the 2nd quarter has exceeded the 1st quarter as to price in recent years, this is significant news.  We have another 8 days in the month, but look at the volume and prices in the charts below.

I’m going to continue to keep a running total of YOY.  Last week I went all the way back to 2000.  In future weeks I will continue to post 2004 to present so we can see where volume peaked, and track pricing to see how the volume changes are slowly impacting prices, and how these prices compare to previous quarters.

If you read the colums down instead of left to right, it should make a little more sense to you.  We will see a lot of changes in the 2nd quarter starts in the next couple of weeks.  But given the weekly stats are continuing to show weak numbers as to median price per square foot as to properties “in escrow”, I don’t think we are going to see the expansion we are used to between the 1st and 2nd quarters as to volume (no surprise) OR price.  I’ll post and compare the percentages when all of the results are in for the month of June.

King Couny Condos

2004 – 1Q – 1,694 – $188, 2Q 2,636 – $199, 3Q 2,540 – $196, 4Q 2,176 – $195

2005 – 1Q – 2,066 – $198, 2Q 2,925 – $209, 3Q 2,769 – $226, 4Q 2,266 – $224

2006 – 1Q – 1,956 – $242, 2Q 2.748 – $252, 3Q 2,737 – $269, 4Q 2,217 – $278

2007 – 1Q – 2,042 – $295, 2Q 2,862 – $302, 3Q 2,676 – $311, 4Q 1,618 – $294

2008 – 1Q – 1,258 – $299, 2Q 1,244 – $290 (2Q incomplete data – postings as of 6/22/08)

Changes in condo stats for this week

Active Listings: 4,049 – UP 85 – median price $324,950 – MPPSF  asking $321 – DOM 60

In Escrow:  929 –  DOWN 17 – median price $289,000  – MPPSF asking $286  – DOM – 50

Sold YTD :  2,504 – UP 120 – median list price $295,000 – median sold price  $289,950 – median PPSF – $295 DOM 48

Residential King county

2004 – 1Q 5,650 – $152, 2Q 9,237 – $160, 3Q 8.737 – $163, 4Q 7,467 – $165

2005 – 1Q 6,402 – $173, 2Q 9,093 – $185, 3Q 9,131 – $192, 4Q 7,301 – $195

2006 – 1Q 5,596 – $201, 2Q 8,248 – $214, 3Q 7,771 – $216, 4Q 6,204 – $217

2007 – 1Q 5,304 – $222, 2Q 7,393 – $230, 3Q 7,944 – $229, 4Q 4,301 – $221

2008 – 1Q 3,640 – $219, 2Q 3,846 – $219 (2Q incomplete data – postings as of 6/22/08)

Changes in residential stats for this week

In Escrow: 2,931 – DOWN 56 – median asking price $449,000 – DOM 47 – MPPSF $215

SOLD YTD: 7,489 –  UP 377 – median sold price $440,000- DOM 49 – MPPSF $219

Actively for sale 11,995 – UP 178 – MPPSF <$800,000 is $220- MPPSF >$800,000 is $337

Stats not compiled or published by NWMLS. (Required disclosure) 

Remember, the in escrow MPPSF is lower and those are ASKING prices, not sold prices.  Sold prices have been running about $10,000 less than asking prices in both the single family and condo markets.

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ARDELL is a Managing Broker with Better Properties METRO King County. ARDELL was named one of the Most Influential Real Estate Bloggers in the U.S. by Inman News and has 33+ years experience in Real Estate up and down both Coasts, representing both buyers and sellers of homes in Seattle and on The Eastside. email: cell: 206-910-1000

18 thoughts on “Sunday Night Stats – Prices Down

  1. Ardell,
    Great information. We look at the NWLS stats all the time and we run these numbers and the two most frustrating things about them is to get them to all line up properly on Blogs and that these numbers can be so skewed based on different areas in the city and the market conditions in various price ranges. For example if you simply look at Area 701 and 700 (Belltown and Queen Anne Condos) from 1/01/08 to 3/31/08 the average List Price per Sq Ft was $517 with the Sold Price of $503 and there were 198 Sold properties for the first quarter. Now, for “almost” the end of the second quarter from 4/01/08 to 6/23/08 there were 195 Sold properties with the average Sq. Ft. List Price of $508 and Sold Price of $496. So sales actually and surprisingly stayed level for the fist 6 month of this year in that area of town.

    Several times a year we get a new buyer from out of town and they have been doing all their research on Seattle Real Estate on line and they see all these sales stats on King County that say the average price per Sq Ft for a condo in Seattle is $219. Then they research the various city neighborhoods and deiced that they want to live on Queen Anne or in Belltown but then when they get here and start looking for a place they find that the average price per SQ Ft is is $496 not $219.

    I love looking at these numbers and seeing the trends but what they aren’t telling us is that different areas of the city have very different real estate markets. And trying to post all the various neighborhoods would be a monumental task and chances are none of it would ever line up properly for me 😉

  2. I’m writing a follow up post with a couple of visuals. While neighborhoods are clearly different, I doubt that any neighborhood is still up at peak level pricing on an overall basis. The only thing that would cause that is if most sales in a small area in a small timeframe represent new vs. used.

  3. To bad you can’t sell condos short and cover when the prices drop. If some ex-Microsoftie or Amazonian is looking for a business idea, there you have it.

  4. Dear WA MLS,

    Using MLS in the manner that you are is a fineable offense here on our side of WA. Not sure if I would be subject to a fine for permitting it in the comments. I’ll give it some thought before acting.

  5. Ardell, I’m not sure what your talking about. WA MLS is using the term “short” in the more common manner–that used by stock traders. “Short sale” as used in real estate is the unusual use of the term.

    There are apparently ways to short the real estate market by investing in certain funds or indexes. But as far as I know, there’s no way to do that with respect to condos.

  6. Kary,

    WOW! You took that out into left field. I’m talking about the term “MLS” (and clearly stated so) and the use of it on the linked to site. I’m assuming he or she is not in NWMLS territory. Mostly I don’t like someone using a company name as a hyperlink. Feels too much like an advertisement, and as such it is an advertisement that is against our local MLS rules.

  7. I added an extra “the” to the sentence you wrote when I read it, right after the first word, such that it read: “Using the MLS in the manner that you are is a fineable offense here on our side of WA.” That’s why I misunderstood what you were saying.

  8. Interesting figures! As a realtor in the West Toronto area I can say that unfortunately the condo prices continue to rise here. What is really annoying regarding the market that is not balanced, the detached houses are staying mainly in the background. However we can predict from the fact that the popularity of the condos came so suudenly that it won`t last long.

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