I’m busy making James’ Biscotti , but I just got a Tweet from Matt Goyer over at Redfin about a Cover Story in the Seattle PI. I glanced at it and everyone and their mother is putting in their $.02 about the Seattle Real Estate Market in 2009.
You can read it HERE
I didn’t see much of a concensus. The usual suspects saying it’s going to be good vs. the usual contra-suspects saying it’s going to be bad. I’ll look at it more closely when the bis-cotti is twice baked (biscotti means twice-baked; not biscuit). In the meantime, if anyone sees a strong case for believing in one person more than another, let me know.
James, your recipe calls for “a lb. of flour” and I have a half used 5 lb. bag. I guess I’ll have to Google how many cups = 1lb. of flour 🙂
We’re back to work…but’s it’s still Holiday Time too! Plus, we can’t really do any meaningful year end or 4th Quarter stats until a week or so into the New Year.
So far, December is neck and neck with November as to median prices (per square foot), and 12% down for the year.
Hi Ardell – go to this link to see a cool website that calculates how many cups are in a lot of things: http://screencast.com/t/AdFACMIpE
As for the Seattle PI article: No amount of positive thinking is going to re-enliven this real estate market for a long time. If the Credit market doesn’t thaw soon, it will have devastating affects on buyers no matter how low the interest rates go. Also, if home prices remain soft, no buyer is going to purchase a depreciating asset. Not a great scenario. I don’t believe we’re going to see a “regular” real estate market in 2009. I don’t think we’re going to see a vibrant market for many years. (Mr. Positive, I know!).
Let me know how the biscotti come out!
The PI article was largely optimistic, with virtually every pundit quoted predicting things will turn around in 2009. The most dire outcome was percieved as a 20% decline from peak.
While it is POSSIBLE real-estate might turn around in 2009, I think this is highly unlikely. We are entering a period of severe global economic contraction, and the bottom of this won’t be seen for years.
I do agree with the PI comments on how mortgage interest rates will remain low. I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see mortgage rates significantly lower at the end of 2009 than they were at the beginning. Unfortunately, the low rates won’t help since fewer people will qualify for loans in the first place, and growing local unemployment won’t help either.
For a walk on the dark side, you can check out my predictions for 2009 at http://www.surkan.com. Just a warning: it isn’t exactly a dose of sunshine.
Sniglet,
I’m beginning to think that the idea of ‘low rates won’t help anyone’ may not ring so. Nutty to think about, but some of the streamline FHA loans I’m seeing are placing people with virtually little chance of financing in the conventional arena into loans. Were talking borrowers with very very poor FICO’s. FHA is the new subprime. And that has it’s own set of concerns because you, me and every other taxpayer probably own their own slice of the FHA pie.
Sniglet: “The most dire outcome was percieved as a 20% decline from peak.”
That would be less than 3% down from November of 2008. As you can see in the data in the post below, King County Residential was $230 MPPSF at peak. In November we were at $189 and December has been running between $188 and 190 for the last couple of days. 20% under peak would be $184. 3% lower than November would be $183ish.
http://www.raincityguide.com/2008/09/08/sunday-night-stats-seattle-real-estate/
But its like appraisals that are all coming in too high. The real story isn’t in was has sold and what they have sold for. The real story is in what isn’t selling.
I’ll go over to the the dark side now…or will it give me nightmares this close to bed time 🙂
Some of you (e.g. Sniglet) need to go back and read the article again. Of the last 14 paragraphs, starting with: “Rascoff agreed that low rates could spur some buying, but did not predict a recovery next year.” not a single one is positive.
As you know, I think predictions are a waste of time, but the article was hardly all sunshine and roses.
BTW, I only went up 14 paragraphs because I remembered real estate agents were quoted the last 2-3 and that they didn’t say anything positive. It was mainly (entirely?) others saying positive things.
Kary,
People are looking for a clear warning or at least a strong caution.
It seems that you could take a little bit of everyone’s advice. Not necessarily one or the other. There will be some markets that do see a strengthening and others that continue to see a decrease. For us in South Florida, the condo market is likely to continue to fall with some exceptions. But the single family home market in certain price ranges seems to see signs of improvement.
Ardell wrote: “People are looking for a clear warning or at least a strong caution.”
Why? If they already know what they want, what’s the point of their reading the article? Are these people like a hypochondriac going to the doctor?
I really don’t think much of these type of articles addressing different peoples’ predictions, but if someone is reading them just to reinforce their own opinion, and only accept opinions that are extreme one direction, that seems really pointless.
If you are looking for a reason to be cautious, it should not be from this type of article. It’s going to be from articles that are more “heavy” news, like Paulson proposing a $700B bailout, Obama proposing a $1000B stimulus package, news of a worldwide recession, increasing unemployment, etc. Knowing what some bank officer, economist, appraiser or agent in Seattle thinks will happen in the future simply shouldn’t be that important in anyone’s decision making process.
Kary,
Here’s my take on predictions:
There are thousands of homes on the market in the greater Puget Sound region. The vast majority are priced precisely due to the fact they are taking advice from their agent. Agents give advice on presenting or staging their homes that they “predict” would make it more attractive, “predict” would make it sell for a higher price, “predict” that would sell it in a quicker time, and so on…
The home owners agent is suggesting a price due to forward (you’d hope) thinking projections about the market, based upon a variety of factors that could be argued as “unknowable.” The ‘unknowable’ probably includes a reasonably known fact that we are in one heck of a correction, many would say, such as me, due to the fact we were in an absurd market run up in prices that made no fundamental sense. Certainly, looking in the rear view mirror, but from my vantage point, I could see it very clearly coming towards us and staring at us square in the eye.
The idea that “if you know what you want’….” inferring to why bother receiving advice, predictions, feedback, ideas, suggestions from others is not reality. People want information. Now more than ever.
You mention: “Knowing what some bank officer, economist, appraiser or agent in Seattle thinks will happen in the future simply shouldn’t be that important in anyone’s decision making process.” Ok, then why would anyone ever need my escrow co. services? Why would anyone need your services because if all you say at the kitchen table is, “my advice and future projections are really rather useless,” then what’s the point of listing with you? What value are you creating for 6%? Taking it further, why bother with all the round table economic, banking, business forecast meetings for the public and private businesses and community leaders that assemble in board rooms, civic centers, convention halls, and hotel meeting rooms all across the country to discuss and forecast “unknowable” things. They all just came for the Danish Pastries & Coffee?
Speaking of predictions, should Spencer Rascoff and the team that hired Dr. Stan Humphries to do analytics for Zillow just bag his employment because he provides data and research that is really not useful?
How about just shutting down the need for any data out of the NWMLS? Nobody, including agents, should use it for doing analysis on market movement, absorption rates, or housing prices, because it’s usefulness is suspect.
So, all that to say that I think there should be more credence given to providing meaningful information to consumers and that if the fear of projecting advice or predictions overwhelm the potential usefulness of the same, then the professions we all are in (economics, escrow, agents, education, health care, Software, military etc…) wouldn’t be terribly fulfilling.
Tim,
One of the reasons agents have trouble envisoning and verbalizing opinion as to future value, is it puts them between a rock and a hard place. On any given day, an agent speaks with both buyers AND sellers of real estate. There seems to be a universal desire to be both positive and honest. If an agent believes strongly in the market moving in one direction or another dramatically, it makes it difficult to be “of service” to buyers and/or sellers, depending on the direction of the belief.
I remember when double digit rates started moving back into single digit rates. I worked at the bank and was an Investment Officer at the time. When I went over to visit my friends in the Student Loan Department where I had worked previously, everyone was happy. Interest rates were more favorable for the parents borrowing money to put their children through college. When I went back to my desk, the widows (Trust Department) were lamenting not socking everything they had into long term bonds at 14%, now that the rates were peeking at 9%. People borrowing money were very happy that rates were down. People living off the interest were not happy that rates were down. At least I didn’t work in both Departments at the same time…which is what agents do every day.
The problem with envisioning A Real Estate Recovery is that The Rocovery looks like lower prices from a buyer’s standpoint, but The Recovery looks like flat to increasing prices from a seller’s standpoint.
Market Value, by my definition, is the price at which neither party is exceedingly happy. We’re pretty much there. Sellers are not happy with what they are getting vs. what they could have gotten 18 months ago. Buyers are not happy with the prices they are paying, because they fear prices will go down further. Agents aren’t happy because they can’t sustain their families and financial needs in a market with so few buyers acting. No one is happy in this market.
Ardell wrote: “People are looking for a clear warning or at least a strong caution.
Not to be mean, but remember these words ardell? we all need to go back are review real estate posts from 2007, to really bring reality home.
” While we are seeing a teensy weensy weakness in October vs. August and September prices, the run up from January of 2005 to present has been insane. 72% of families have been squeezed out of the first time buyer market during that time in the $300,000 or under range. So even if we see prices dropping back, we will not soon see the day when the increase will be declared a bubble that is about to burst. In fact a modest correction is well warranted, but I do not see single family homes dropping in price back to where they were in January of 2005 for many, many…if ever…years. So yes, in the single family home market, anything decent in the lowest of price ranges should still be grabbed up. By March of 2007 the opportunity to get any bargains in the entry level single family home markets, will likely be gone for good. “
lynne,
The last sentence makes me want to lock myself in a room with a whip, like the preacher in The Scarlett Letter!
But the rest of it is still fairly valid. Areas that went up 72% since Jan. of 2005, are not anywhere near January of 2005. King County overall is not back to January of 2005 either. I clearly see the possibility of it getting there in SOME places, but not the places that had the most appreciation.
When I use the data “up 72%” I’m usually thinking about those one bedroom condos that were selling for $100,000 across from Microsoft off 148th Ave, and the Sixty-01 townhomes that were selling for $120,000. I just happened to have clients in there at the time and saw the $100,000 condo go up to $172,000 (hence the 72% increase reference) and the Sixty-01 townhomes go up by much more.
Those $120,000 townhomes are now back down to just under $250,000…so no where near where they were in early 2005. The one bedroom condos are selling in the $165,000 range, so still way up relative to early 2005.
It’s a lot harder to track single family houses as accurately, as it is harder to find several homes that are as close in kind. But one would not think the data for those two standout examples is “unique” to the extent it can’t be carried to other types of property nearby.
Back to that last sentence, in March of 2007 the lowest of price ranges in decent housing in high appreciation neighborhoods was $360,000. Again using Eastside near Microsoft here. I don’t generalize about Seattle. That $360,000 is a split entry in 98052 in March of 2007. Today the rock bottom recent sale price for a short sale for a similar property was $400,000. The lowest asking price is $485,000.
So yeah…Getting an entry level house in those 72% appreciation areas is currently not as good as it was then…when I said it. $360,000 vs. $400,000 best case scenario and $450,000 normal scenario.
Premise being the lowest price for a single family home does not move as much in a down cycle as a home in the highest of price ranges. That’s generally true in all markets, and why age old advice is not to buy the most expensive house in a neighborhood. The cheapest house in the neighborhood has less risk when the market turns down.
I still hate the way the sentence is worded, but the advice in it proves out.
“Market Value, by my definition, is the price at which neither party is exceedingly happy.”
Ardell, I don’t know how you have the time to do all the blog posts and comments that you author. You have a great talent for writing.
OT a bit: We are slowly looking for a second home on Kauai, where there is very little sales activity at the “higher end” of the market. I would arbitraily define that as $750K and higher. Would be sellers and not coming down in price from 2005-07 highs; in fact, they still instinctively list for 10-50% more than they paid during the “peak” years. Of course, would be buyers are having none of it, so while there is little “market value” being determined, everyone remains unhappy. (Since you like stats, according to the “Hawaiilife” website, there are 754 properties (vacant land, condos, houses) on the Kauai MLS (entire island) asking $750K or more, of which 8 are “contingent” (i.e., in escrow), an ratio of 94:1!
Sorry – I know this is “Rain City Guide” not “Rainy Island Guide”, but I just want to share my frustration. It is not a buyers or sellers market, at least at the high end (I think this is true in more places than Kauai). It is an impasse.
Jim the Realtor (North County San Diego) has summarized it nicely on his Bubbleinfo blog – for those of you that may not also read that one:
People want to buy real estate, and those who know the least are willing to pay the most – or at least more than you. An astute buyer is a frustrated buyer; literally the more you know, the tougher it is to snag a good deal because the more-eager keep paying 5% more!
Patent Guy,
In 12th Grade the nuns wanted me to pursue writing as an endeavor. My Mom said, someone’s gotta go to work in this family! LOL. My oldest brother and sister went to college and she wanted someone to get a job! I’m glad I did as my Dad died the next year (7 kids) and the Bank I worked for paid for me to go to Wharton at night…worked out. I could even walk there after work.
Yup! No matter where you go…the story is in what is NOT sold, not the value of “the comps”.
Unfortunately it’s hard for an out of area person to get the best deals. The agents I know there are pretty “sunny” if you know what I mean 🙂 Great deals take a long time to “work” and not being in the neighborhood during that time makes it next to impossible.
You have to put an offer in and just wait it out…renew it every 7 days, if needed. Remember, the seller’s answer is never as relevant as an offer from another buyer. Eventually, if no other buyers come around offering more…your offer will not smell as bad as it did when you first sent it their way.
It also depends on how picky you are, but you have to get an agent who is willing to see this from the dark side. Easier said then done in smiley places with smiley faces. We’re much darker in Seattle 🙂
“Ardell, I don’t know how you have the time to do all the blog posts and comments that you author.”
I don’t proofread or spell check…in my brain out my mouth. The ones with stats is just me recording stuff for my own later use, really. Blogging is what I do while I am working, not a sideline.
Comment 16,
People consistently being willing to pay more makes you wrong. Pure and simple. Sellers not wanting to take it is one thing…buyers paying more IS the market you must deal in.
Tim wrote: “some of the streamline FHA loans I’m seeing are placing people with virtually little chance of financing in the conventional arena into loans. Were talking borrowers with very very poor FICO’s. FHA is the new subprime”
Is it the low mortgage rates that are enabling these “subprime” borrowers to get FHA loans, or is it more due to the fact that FHA standards are so low?
In any event, getting people into homes they can’t really afford (FHA or otherwise) won’t really help the market in the long run. Just look at the high percentage of people who get mortgage modifications wind up going delinquent yet again. If a person can’t really handle the debt then they shouldn’t given credit in the first place.
Hi folks,
I’m in need of some information. There is a house that we’re considering making an offer for, but a big problem with it is the basement is too shallow to be finished as is. At sex feet height, it’s fine for utility and storage but not for converting to livable space. One option would be to excavate down a foot or so.
What are the procedures for pursuing this?
What building code is in effect around here?
Would a variance be required?
Do contractors pull permits here or does the homeowner?
I assume a structural engineer evaluation would be required in addition to architects plans?
Can anybody swag a $/sq ft estimate for a jackhammer and pour job like this (estimate 600-700 sq ft total)?
thanks,
Mark
“People consistently being willing to pay more makes you wrong. Pure and simple. Sellers not wanting to take it is one thing…buyers paying more IS the market you must deal in.”
Yeah, I know. So does Jim. But, his quote is more applicable to north county San Diego than for our search on Kauai. Yes, the agents there tend to be overly sunny, although not as much these days. Many of them have left the island, and many others are in process of leaving (it’s always to spend more time with family in Florida or soemthing like that; neve rbecause they can no longer sell real estate). But, the humpbacks are back, and they are more fun to watch than breaching realtors.
Hi Mark,
With the number of homes on the market for sale, it may be prudent to make your offer subject to a bid from a licensed general contractor and then compare the cost to that of buying a home that suits your needs as is.
Mark,
I really can’t be of much help there. My gut says it’s way more complex then a jack hammer and a pour job, due to foundation issues. The ones I’ve seen done have been jacked up, supported, and dug down. The people I saw having it done were sorry that they bothered.
You can make an offer subject to a feasibility study. That would tie up the property while you get some estimates from contractors. I would think the contractor would be responsible for getting the permits, but make sure you have them in your possession before anyone starts doing any work.
Jillayne was answering at the same time. Yes, that is a “feasibility study” addendum. Watch your timeframes though and make sure you give yourself enough time to get more than one estimate. If you would buy the house even if you couldn’t do the basement, you could wrap it all into a Home Inspection timeframe.
Hi Sniglet,
FHA underwriting guidelines are currently too loose. The government tends to move slowly to enact changes. Watch for FHA guidelines (and all underwriting guidelines) to contract….slowly in 2009.
We can also look at this problem from a different angle. Perhaps FHA is being used right now to take on high risk loans in order to attempt to save the banks. Once the loan is held by the government, better loan modifications can be sought on behalf of future defalting homeowners in 2009 and beyond.
Consider the billions in loans that Fannie and Freddie have been directed to purchase from the banks.
Patent Guy,
Reality is the market isn’t where people want it to be…only the few that are actually selling…about half of those…are selling at the prices people want to pay. The majority of sellers are digging in their heels…and may win the war after the first of the year. Hitch will be Jumbo loans and lack thereof. There’s a lot influencing the market that is being kept rather quiet in hopes that a remedy will present itself.
Until a majority of sellers, even 51%, are on board with different pricing…that pricing doesn’t exist.
Jillayne and Sniglet,
Still…expect FHA to be looser than conventional…always. That’s what FHA IS and WAS for many years. If the Standards are consistent with where they were in 2002…that should be sufficient.
No standard will be a full shiled against default in the event of job loss. Defualts will happen. But FHA has been around a very long time with looser standards. Slightly looser as to credit issues and rations, and low downpayment. Don’t expect that to change and don’t assume there is something wrong with that…there isn’t.
Hi Ardell,
On the contrary, there’s nothing wrong with tightening underwriting guidelines to save the FHA home mortgage insurance program.
FHA was and should be tighter than it is now.
Going back further than 2002, FHA underwriting guidelines were much, much tougher than they are now.
In 2002, subprime was beginning it’s glory days and lenders were turning their backs on FHA.
If you look at FHA delinquencies for Washington State, they almost rival subprime for 2007.
Jillayne wrote: “Going back further than 2002, FHA underwriting guidelines were much, much tougher than they are now.”
What has changed in FHA guidelines over the last 10 years? It would be fascinating to get some specifics. The only thing I have heard rumour of was the “Nehemiah” program, which allowed sellers to provide the “down-payment”. If I understand things correctly, it was only in relatively recent times that FHA allowed this kind of of financing. Also, I heard there were plans to phase this out, but that industry lobbyists were fighting hard to keep it alive.
Has anything else happened to loosen FHA requirements in the last 10 or 15 years?
Sniglet asks, “Has anything else happened to loosen FHA requirements in the last 10 or 15 years?”
FHA sets the minimum guidelines for the FHA Home Mortgage Insurance Program. Recall that FHA is not the lender, it’s an insurance program.
Banks/Lenders are the ones who lend the money. If the loan is originated by an FHA-approved lender, according to FHA guidelines, after the loan closes the case binder is transferred to the nearest HUD office for review. If everything is in order, the bank/lender receives an FHA Mortgage Insurance Certificate and the loan can now be sold into a GNMA pool.
FHA sets the minimum standard at which a loan is eligible for an FHA MI certificate. Banks/Lenders can decide to make their underwriting guidelines tougher than FHA’s minimum standards.
If a bank/lender wants to make a loan that is less strict than what FHA allows, it better have the signature of upper management and have substantial good, logical reasons because if FHA rejects the loan, now the Bank/Lender has an un-saleable loan.
Overall FHA guidelines are still relatively the same today as they were 10 years ago.
It’s the banks/lenders that would make them tighter.
FHA would make the decision to tighten its own guidelines if it feels that the decision would protect its insurance program. For example, the Nehamiah loans (seller-funded downpayment assistance loans) had a very high default rate and were a substantial risk to the insurance program and now they’re gone.
Another change that we may see is that currently, FHA has an ARM program and homebuyers are STILL qualified at the teaser rate. This is insane and will likely change.
Government changes happen slowly. Changes at the bank level will happen faster.
Over the last 10 years, just about everyone was pushed into subprime. FHA was irrelevant.
“What has changed in FHA guidelines over the last 10 years? It would be fascinating to get some specifics.”
To look at the historic changes in FHA guidelines, you have to track the Conventional Loan changes to some degree. To some extent, I believe the dissemination of information is largely to blame for the outcome, vs. changes in lending practices.
Historically, Conventional Loans = 20% downpayment and 28/36 ratios. To this day you will find many sources on the internet talking about 28/36 ratios, but very few people and lenders buying into those ratios. This was not the case for many years. Back in the days of 5% passbook savings accounts, 20% down, 28% of gross for housing payment and 36% for total recurring debt payments including Housing Payment was KING!
I’m going to stop here and turn this comment into it’s own post.
Patent Guy: “…there are 754 properties (vacant land, condos, houses) on the Kauai MLS (entire island) asking $750K or more, of which 8 are “contingent
Tim wrote: “[Kary] mentions: “Knowing what some bank officer, economist, appraiser or agent in Seattle thinks will happen in the future simply shouldn’t be that important in anyone’s decision making process.
Ardell, I’m not sure I understand your math. 600 devided by ten is sixty, not six. Is a five year supply “barely a buyer’s market”?
I did lump them together for brevity, since this is a Seattle blog, not a Kauai blog, but here is the breakdown, island wide, for SFRs, condos and bare land with asking prices over $750K:
SFR: 388 on MLS; 4 contingent = 97:1
Condos: 178 on MLS; 3 contingent = 59:1
Land: 184 on MLS; 1 contingent = 184:1
I have seen at least one of their realtor’s blog post regarding whether they have a “selling season”, and it was not clear that it varies a lot for a number of reasons (depends on whether market for locals versus for wealthy haoles), but even so, these numbers are pathetic for all categories. And, still, it’s not a buyer’s market because sellers are holding out for that magic bullet that will create lots of willing and qualified high-end buyers in 2009. Maybe it’s the Obama “hope” thingee. Good luck with that.
Patent Guy…not enough coffee yet and I’m writing a post on the history of the world 🙂 Mea Culpa. Didn’t give that adequate attention. I’ll check with my agent friends in Hawaii and get back to you on this one. Another reason I don’t usually do stats even for Monroe. When out of area, my sense of right and wrong on the answer, is in neutral mode. The one that says “no, that can’t be right”.
In our lingo, your last comment wouldn’t make much sense. If you looked at contingent vs. active, you’d get the same ratios or worse. I don’t want to assume Hawaii calls all pending sales contingent. I’ll get more facts and be back…after I finish writing the Rise and Fall in response to comment #30.
Anything that “fascinates” Sniglet is worthy of a post of its own.
Kary says “In law firms there are at least two types of rainmakers. Some generate clients by being very good at what they do. Others generate clients by making overly optimistic predictions as to the outcome of cases, and grossly understating the cost of the legal fees.”
As a former partner of a couple of large lawfirms, I can confirm that is 100% accurate. Sad part is that the latter group is typically more successful than the former at bringing in clients, leaving it to the former group to do the excellent work and be blamed for the high costs that they never promised would be lower.
Successful salespersons in all fields operate similarly.
Ardell, no worries. You may be right on “contingent” not including all escrows. But, the only two choices the agent can list that get screened are “active” and “contingent”, and I am told “active” means nothing pending …
Should be easy enough to find an agent in Hawaii to talk to (assuming they have not already moved back to the mainland). Not much else going on …
No trouble PG…I know at least two agents there off the top of my head. I’ll give them both a call when I’m done my post.
Jillayne wrote: “We can also look at this problem from a different angle. Perhaps FHA is being used right now to take on high risk loans in order to attempt to save the banks. Once the loan is held by the government, better loan modifications can be sought on behalf of future defalting homeowners in 2009 and beyond.”
And this is being done without the interference from Congress, which totally messed up the original bailout plan.
Hi Ardell,
One of the economists I am going to watch this year is Nouriel Roubini. He spoke at Inman’s Real Estate Connect last January. His name has shown up on a lot of lists for accurately predicting our economic mess. Here’s an article from the New York Times about him:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/17/magazine/17pessimist-t.html?_r=2&ref=magazine&oref=slogin
Here’s another link to a list of articles written recently about him:
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini
More importantly, did you solve your flour dilemma and how was the biscotti?
I hope you and Kim have a great 2009.
Ardell wrote: “Until a majority of sellers, even 51%, are on board with different pricing…that pricing doesn’t exist.”
Not really. About 1/3 of listings sell within 30 days, even in this market. The other 2/3rds just sit there. Some of them never sell. Pricing is controlled by the listings that sell. The ones that don’t sell are practically irrelevant (except as perhaps a warning to other agents/sellers not to price that high).
Ardell wrote: “One of the reasons agents have trouble envisoning and verbalizing opinion as to future value, is it puts them between a rock and a hard place. On any given day, an agent speaks with both buyers AND sellers of real estate. There seems to be a universal desire to be both positive and honest. If an agent believes strongly in the market moving in one direction or another dramatically, it makes it difficult to be “of service
Kary,
The attorney’s off the top of their head response, determines if the expense of further research is warranted.
If a buyer walks into your office and says they make $28,000 a year, have $10,000 cash, and want to buy a three million dollar house…you should have an off the top of your head response. You shouldn’t need a lender to get in the mix.
If a seller calls you to their home and your gut reacition before having seen the house was it was likely worth about $650,000, the owner opens by saying they want to sell their house for $2.6 millions, and you didn’t see a pot of gold in the foyer…you should have an off the top of your head response.
Your passion is different than mine. All agents can answer something off the top of their head. Each agent has a different group of things they can answer off the top of their head.
I can answer that the 1/3 of sellers in the top price range in Kirkland are going to be climbing a very steep uphill battle for some time to come, because I make it my business to know that “off the top of my head” by doing scads of research continually. You can answer something else off the top of your head…maybe about how a buyer should have known the roof needed replacement without anyone having advised them of same in advance.
If a builder comes to you to find some vacant land to build 100 homes…you better have some idea as to whether those 100 homes can sell at what that builder expects them to sell for…and how long that will take.
Knowing our business is not puffery. It is a prediction based on facts, not a wild ass guess. Getting those factso is an everyday event (not when the situation arises) the same as reading the Wall Street Journey every day is necessary if you want to be a stock broker.
You do someting better than me…I do something better than you…what you do better than me is not nonsense just because I do not choose to focus in that direction.
Kary,
Is it a good time to sell a house or a good time to buy a house, generally speaking? You should have an answer to that…of the top of your head.
Re 45, the answer to that has to do with volume, not where prices are headed–It’s a bad time to sell. In many ways it’s a good time to buy if you’re interested in selection, bargaining power and interest rates. If you’re mainly worried about buying at the bottom, then maybe not.
Ardell wrote: “The attorney’s off the top of their head response, determines if the expense of further research is warranted.”
That’s not the situation I’m describing. I’m talking about attorneys that give yes/no answers to questions they don’t know the answer to because they don’t want to admit to their client that they don’t know.
I remember something one of my professors said. He said people think attorneys know the law. That they can call up with a question, and answering it would be as easy as answering what the speed limit is on Roosevelt between NE 45th and 50th. Many real life situations that confront attorneys simply don’t have that clear of an answer.
Debra wrote: “One of the economists I am going to watch this year is Nouriel Roubini.”
Roubini has certainly been a lot more open minded as to what was happening in the economy than most other economists. Unfortunately, I think his political leanings are steering him off course recently. He has fully bought into the belief that “good” government intervention can save us, and that Obama has a chance of turning things around.
Unfortunately, I don’t think there is ANYTHING policy makers can do to prevent a veritable depression at this point. Additional stimulus/bail-outs will do nothing but prolong the downturn and put the nation is a worse fiscal situation.
We have been trying to buy a place to live in Seattle for a while now and though there seems to be a lot available every time we find a place we are interested in it is either canceled or magically develops another bidder.
Vic, that is kind of surprising because I know there is a lot of inventory out there. It’s still a good idea to make an offer quickly if you are interested though, because a lot of owners are canceling their listings and renting out instead.
Sandra,
What area do you work? I’m seeing multiple offers on just listed property and lots of activity in the last 30 to 45 days.
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