Bubble-bursting round-up

I doubt it’s here so soon (but I don’t claim to know a thing about market-timing). Here are the stories:

New York Times
Investors Insight – goodness that’s dense! (and a couple of weeks old)

I expect Ardell to further suss out where the bubble is popping and where it is not popping as she expertly did for Kirkland. I will go out on a limb and say everywhere, over the next 10 years (daring!). To those who say “they aren’t making more land,” which admirably hasn’t yet been stated on Rain City Guide, I would like to point you to Tokyo’s experience in the late 80s and throughout the 90s.

I like how Marketplace makes realtors sound like wild animals – “the realtor population has grown immensely over the last 5 years.”

There are a couple significant differences between this “bubble” and the internet one:

1. The magnitude. Internet stocks went significantly more than 50% to high. However, most people weren’t leveraged on internet stocks.
2. The naysayers. There are a lot more naysayers this time around (or am I just reading more negative publications?). Perhaps that means the market will continue to rise until the pessimists are suckered into second homes too.

I was told today that cranes are still on backorder in the Seattle area. If sales go soft as prices go soft, we might have a ton of extra units ready to open in 2007 and maybe even in 2008. If they’re half done now, they’re half price to finish.


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