Well Galen, when I got pinged to start sussing up some numbers, here’s what I came up with.
True, closings Dec. 05 are down most everywhere. But a second wind has kicked in.
Kirkland Dec .05 closings at 127 were down from 154 in Dec 04 – BUT currently in escrow a whopping 206!
Bellevue more even keeled. Dec 05 at 175 down from 195 in Dec 04. Currently in escrow 200.
The high end is holding its own so far with 27 escrows in Kirkland over a mil and 20 in Bellevue, so no bubbles bursting there yet.
The low end is a scramble. New listings are being gobbled up with multiple offers as fast as they hit the market. A few of them didn’t deserve to be jumped on and I had my buyers pass them by, but someone grabbed them anyway.
One of the reasons Kirkland is way up in current escrows is because we have yet another group of displaced persons being kicked out of their apartments for a condo conversion in downtown Kirkland. Those people are scrambling for new digs and those who don’t want to chance being displaced again are buying instead of renting again.
So no bubbles bursting yet. Question will come when new inventory starts popping in at higher levels when the sun ever decides to come back and stay awhile. If the high end inventory doubles, as I expect it will, the low end will do just fine, but I’m still not sure about the $1.3 million plus crowd.
Oh, forgot. I popped into my old stomping grounds over by Green Lake. Same trend there. 76 closed Dec. 05 vs. 119 Dec. 04 with 136 currently in escrow.
Kirkland stilll leading the pack with 206 now in escrow vs. 127 closings in Dec. Go Kirkland…I mean Seahawks. Actually I’m a Sonics fan. Did anyone catch Ray Allen’s 30 foot shot in double overtime to win the game on Sunday?!?! It was a beaut!! And tonight’s win gives us the first back to back win in awhile. Go Sonics!
Here is some additional statistical data to support her comments. PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. conducts quarterly analysis of the top MSA’s in the U.S. to predict the likelihood of home prices delining. When you compare the fall ’05 report to the summer ’05 report, Seattle’s market has some overvaluation. But relative to other markets, it’s fairly neglible. On their index, Seattle rates an 84, 16th lowest when compared to Pittsburgh, PA at a 54. Conversely, the highest rating is Boston-Quincy, MA at 551. “For example, a score of 100 indicates a 10% chance of a decline in home prices over the next two years. A higher score indicates a higher likelihood of future home price declines.” It’s kind of complicated to distill all this information down to a paragraph so check out the full article by searching for: pmi press release October 18, 2005. Click on the link “What’s New at PMI” and then scroll down to the October 18th release. Also, if you can’t find it, I can send you a link.
Matt,
I definitely found that report interesting when it came out as well… Here was my take on it:
How Risky is the Seattle Market?
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