Housing sales fall in 40 states; but not in Northwest

[photopress:sputtering_starts.gif,thumb,alignright]Interesting story of the differing views from US (not U.S.) and those outside of the Rain City. One of my development partners (Mike) is from Michigan and is one of those 40 states with falling sales (not to mention increasing unemployment).  As if the bubblers need any more endorsement to foster their cause the Seattle Times reported Housing sales fell in 40 states… but not the NW yesterday.  Before I read the story in the times Mike sent me the view from the vast majority of the country as seen on CNNMoney.com ‘Housing starts plunge‘.

The CNN reported that housing starts fall much more than forecast, to their lower level since ’97.  They go on to add what in turn I call the LARGE BUILDER EFFECT; permits also fall as single-family permits hit 6-year low.  The Large Builder Effect is a trend that occurs and will effect new housing starts about 12 months down the road when the permits are issued (permit times vary in each municipality).

So what does this mean?  The nation’s leading homebuilders have all reported declining sales and prices for new homes(hence the fall in permits).  Another partner of mine Snohomish County builder I know actually expressed the same views in November, but said since the first of the year his sales have bounced back to their expectations and he is continuing to submit for permits.

Do people behind the Rain City Curtin have their blinders on? Time will only tell, but if history is any guide (and I am NOT a historian) I would guess in time, with a smaller supply of products, demand will eventually grown so even though sales may be sluggish, over a 3 year window sales will continue to grow.

NOTE: I am leaving town after today, but I will do my best to reply to comments.

77 thoughts on “Housing sales fall in 40 states; but not in Northwest

  1. ab? What’s a POS?

    This finished product will be cheaper than a full tear down, (if that’s what you mean) and retain the character of Green Lake better. The people I’ve seen do this, do it for themselves and not for resale, by- and-large. Don’t know about this particular house…time will tell.

    My house in Kirkland is like that, though not a “jack up”. When expanded from 900 sf to 3,300 sf, they retained the full curb appeal of the bungalow. Quite interesting effect, but I have alley access, so the garage is in the rear. It provides a middle price range for people, so is a great option. But he did it in 94 for himself, and not for resale value.

    I bought it in 2005 for about $500,000 less than it would have cost had he torn it down. So more of these types of “expansions” are good for Seattle. A mid-price point between 2 bedroom bungalows and new builds. Plus great street character retention.

  2. If someone’s looking for a small bungalow in the 4s in Green Lake, let me know. Should be coming on soon. It’s tiny, but great walk to lake vacation  location.  (oops, have vacation on the brain :)) Won’t be my listing, but I’m 99% sure it will be coming, unless he decides to rent it out instead. Kind of a high tech bachelor pad with a great yard.

  3. ab,

    Jillayne emailed me the answer. Sorry I asked. So they don’t like craftsmen, they don’t like new townhomes, they don’t like condos, they don’t like ramblers, they don’t like split entry homes…what the heck do they like? And do they want a whole City full of only what they want? I don’t get it. What a bunch of whiners.

  4. I worked in Alaska on a house that we jacked up in order to put additional space beneath it. We put up reinforced cinder block walls as the new “foundation” and set the house down. We then graded dirt almost all the way up the wall and had great insulation in the downstairs. It really wasn’t as difficult as it looked.

Comments are closed.