[photopress:august.jpg,full,alignright]I can’t give an official report with stats until September’s sales are closed, but based on my experience out there in the trenches…It was only August! aka “The Dog days of Summer”
Even the Open House I held on Sunday was sold to a fella who walked in and said, “I was looking before, but I took August off!” August has long been known as “Agent Takes Vacation Month”. At one point in August, 4 of the 5 things I was trying to put together had the other agent “leaving for vacation tomorrow”, “calling you from Canada”, “calling all weekend from some road trip”, and other such voice messages. “Leaving for vacation tomorrow” did come together and closed by month end 🙂
This last week, begininning Tuesday after the holiday, has been gangbusters with some very surprising bidding wars going on. Of course the ink isn’t dry on that one, but it’s a great story when it’s over. Some record high prices.
So NO BUBBLES BURSTING. It was only August…again, here in the Seattle area.
Any reason you decided not to mention the 3.8% decline in median price for Seattle? A $15K drop in the median may indicate there’s a bubble.
Will,
Glad you brought that up. I did see the article today in the PI that actually supports my findings and points to the 3.8% you mention.
“August pricess (2006) fell 3.8% from July (2006) AND WERE UP 8 PERCENT from August 2005” (cap emphasis added).
So just August vs July, as my article states and no bubble since up 8% over August a year ago, per the PI article of today that quotes your findings.
Thanks again for bringing that up, it is clearly an important article today in the PI for those who may have missed it.
Will,
Nudge me if I forget, the real stats to follow will be September 1 through October 15 or so. Give me a holler come 10/18 or so if I forget to revisit this topic at that time. Thanks.
Are you hinting that YOY negative indicates a bubble – but since that hasn’t happened there is no bubble?
What was the dip MoM dip in 2005, from July to August? I Comparing MoM from year to year would be more indicative of a trend, it seems. The year over year increase would be less significant as a trend.
Will and Eric,
Every year has a cycle, with August usually being a lower month than July or September. The last quarter figures are usually the lowest of the year. So it is important to know if it is just the “normal” slow month or “normal” slow quarter.
Comparing last year’s slow month to this year’s slow month and last year’s slow quarter to this year’s slow quarter makes sense. Obviously if the PI and I agree…that’s a good indication that maybe there’s some reason to do it that way 🙂 I hadn’t read the PI article before I wrote the above, but I had seen it by the time I saw Will’s comment.
Eric, I don’t do County-wide stats, those came from Will and the PI, as I think “bubbles” are in smaller geographic configurations. But if you run those stats, let us know.
I keep hearing about the bubble bursting – but haven’t seen much evidence of it here in Orlando either.
We have a lot of inventory on the market at the moment but housing sales seem to be on par for another record breaking year.
I think the media is going to cause this sucker to burst if anything else. They are fear mongering and people are starting to clam up on the buyer side. On the other side of the fence, sellers have no idea what to do…they are like deer-in-headlights.
Orlando,
On the one hand you say you haven’t seen much evidence of a bubble bursing. On the other hand you say you have a lot of inventory, reluctant buyers and sellers in a panic.
I think that’s evidence 🙂 Or it could just be fall…no one ever knows this time of year. I sold Orlando area (Lake Mary/Longwood) and the market is very school driven on that side of Orlando. Once school starts, many are already in their homes and the season peters out a bit on the larger homes.
Ardell:
I believe the media is creating a lot of hype about the bubble bursting and this will certainly create a negative impact on the market (that and interest rates). There is too much inventory on the market and that is only a result of investors and wannabe investors riding the coat tails of that charging bull. For a while there inventory levels were low and housing prices reacted in kind.
We are definitely experiencing a boom here in Orlando and prices have shot up by leaps and bounds. However, there are still thousands of people migrating to Orlando each month and the baby boomers certainly appear to be fond of Florida. In 2008 the first of the baby boomers are set to hit retirement age and relocation to a warmer climate is eminant.
With the average housing price of around $250,000 here in Orlando, I don’t believe these numbers will be unsustainable for the average person relocating from the North East.
I believe that prices here will drop for a short period (maybe a year), then many homes on the market will go back to rental properties (especially with apartments converting to condos). Once inventory goes back to a normal level we will continue to see a sustained growth here in Orlando for years to come. But I don’t see a bubble bursting in the sense of the Dutch Tulip bubble of 1637.
There is also a serious lack of dirt available for builders in Central Florida. I read estimates that the population of Central Florida is expected to reach the 8 million mark in the next 10 to 15 years. I think that, coupled with the lack of available property to be developed will be a good indicator of a sustainable marketplace.
But hey – we maybe we are creating a Semantic Bubble that is about to burst?
Cheers,
Mark
PS. I enjoy reading your posts and love your site!