It’s been 4 years – let’s reminisce for a moment, shall we?
I remember. I also remember incurring the wrath of the bubble blogger set with a slightly too subtle dig at the no bubble stance. For the record I said that saying there is no bubble was a “crazy statement.”
But my predictions (which I’m having trouble finding) were imperfect. I predicted a 10-25% decline in home values at the worst and thought the likely bursting of the bubble (which I fully acknowledged!) would actually be a persistent leak – that we would have flat prices for 10-15 years while inflation ate away values.
I thought the government would be so averse to home prices dropping that they would do everything to keep them stable – even at the expense of the economy. Apparently I underestimated the size of the problem. Or I overestimated the powers of the government. By a lot.
And we aren’t out of it yet. This crazy prediction is already true for parts of California (from this post):
>How much do you expect the $400,000 to $500,000 market to drop?
If we have a “soft landing