Zestimate vs. Sold Price

“Tsuru” over in Seattle Bubble comments, asked me for a comparison of Zillow Zestimates vs. Closed Sale Prices in the current market.  To be sure the Zestimate isn’t picking up the recent sale, I’m using the latest 50 or so sales recorded in the mls for King County in the last few days.  42 are single family homes and 8 are condos. I’m only showing the data for the single family homes, but thought you’d like to know the breakdown of the sales for the last few days.

I think I saw David G. at Zillow and someone from Cyberhomes going at it recently, so let’s throw Cyberhomes in the mix too.  As usual, I am posting this as the results come in…so I have no idea how it is going to turn out.  Let the best “man” win 🙂

Also of particular interest are the number of sales that are Short Sales and Bank Owned or other “stressed” sales, many, and very few of those indicated so in the Public view vs. Agent fields.

Sold Price Zestimate                Cyberhomes

$262,000 SS*                 $275,000                  $292,552

$365,000                         $301,500                   $398,192

$287,000 BO*                $311,900                   no result

$530,000 CO*                $743,000                  $695,991

$140,000 BO*                $186,957                    $196,698

$210,000  SS*                 $269,500                   $274,417

$282,500                           $320.000                  $281,461

$285,000                          $276,000                   $276,134

$347,500                           $334,000                  $347,910

$480,000                          $422,500                   $483,891

$550,000 ES*                  $705,500                 $688,842

$565,000 NC                      none                              none

$652,500                              ” N/A”                       $661,320

$190,000 BO                     “no result”                 $234,017

$269,950 SS*                    $285,400                  $282,102

$279,900                           $413,000                  $272,349

$517,000 BO                     $682,500                “$0-Foreclosure”

$450,000                           $454,500                 $518,982

$176,000 BO                     $312,500                 “0-Foreclosure”

$267,999 NC                           n/a                                     n/a

$740,000 SS*                   $937,000                $794,218

$325,000 CG                     $547,000               $567,171

$420,000                           $410,000                $402,384

$451,050 CR                     $637,000                $559,188

$850,000 NC                         n/a                               n/a

$835,000                           $802,500                $811,305

$915,000                            $831,500                $875,266

$850,000 NC                          n/a                              n/a

$370,000                           $367,000               $428,766

$636,500                            $702,000              $676,200

$650,000 SS *                   $707,500              $662,000

$360,000                            $347,500              $376,152

$475,000 BO*                   $584,157               $585,199

$292,500 NC                            n/a                              n/a

$305,000 NC                           n/a                              n/a

$309,950 NC                            n/a                              n/a

$373,000                            $342,000             $352,252

$386,000 NC                               n/a                         n/a

$389,950 NC                               n/a                          n/a

$400,000                            $391,000             $392,337

$577,000   TR                   $467,500             $405,413

$416,000                            $468,500              $484,506

*disclosed in Agent Remarks or owner field, but NOT in public remarks

SS = Short Sale. CO  = Corporate Owned, CR  = Corporate Relocation, BO  = Bank Owned, ES  = Estate Sale, NC = New Construction, CG  = Completely Gutted, TR = Totally Remodeled

Geographically, most of the short sales, all except one, are South.  The first sales are in Federal Way, Auburn, then Burien, Kent, South Seattle, over Mercer Island, Eastside, Bothell, North Seattle on the Green Lake/Greenwood side, then North Seattle up through Shoreline. That is how the mls code numbers run from 100 through 715.

Deep thoughts & a shameless plug

Happy 2008 everybody

For most of the past 6 months, I’ve been working too hard writing e-commerce software at my day job. So, in case you’re curious why I’ve had a lower profile than usual, it’s because I’ve been spending too much time living in e-commerce land, instead of real estate land. On plus side though, our big project is nearing completion and my software engineering skills are approaching Ninja Warrior levels, so I feel good about the year that just passed. Fortunately, I’ve still been reading RE.net blogs actively, despite the fact I haven’t been writing as much as I’d like. Frankly, my brain is kind of tired from trying to co-develop an Amazon clone for the past year.

As 2007 has come to a close, I’ve had to a chance to reflect upon what the past year has given us and where the future may take us. Despite the bearish real estate industry outlook nationwide, I’m an optimistic that 2008 will be a very interesting year. Here are my thoughts on the year ahead

Inman missed somebody

Although, Inman’s list of 10 people to watch is insightful, I personally would add Michael Wurzer of FlexMLS to that list. His recent passionate and tireless efforts to be an advocate for RETS, and his current efforts to bring many of the players of the industry together is very encouraging. I’d almost be willing to say 2008 will be the year of RETS, like 2005 was the year of the blog, 2006 was the year of AJAX maps & 2007 was the year of the feed. I’m starting to feel like RETS will be like NBA basketball in Seattle (just because it’s not here, don’t mean it’s not the real deal elsewhere), which is a marked improvement to how I felt a year ago. Perhaps, I need to write an Open Letter to NWMLS brokers, agents and vendors, similar to what Michael & David Harris have done to toward the industry?

Will data visualization be the next big thing?

I also think that Real Estate data visualization or analytics is bound to become a real big deal in the near future. The efforts of Altos Reasearch and Zillow are making it easy to convert market information into pretty pie & bar charts, and the heat maps from Cyberhomes and HotPads are very insightful. Granted, Wall Street has been doing some of this for quite some time, but I think the real estate industry is ready to take the next step. In order to create cool charts, you need the raw data, and RETS will make that possible (or at least much easier). Once Joe Broker can get at the raw data, the cool charts can come courtesy of Microsoft Office, Google’s new charting API, or something a bit more powerful. I get giddy just thinking about the possibilities.

I think it’s going to take more time, but I think heat maps are going to get much bigger / better too. With Microsoft finally adding first class geospatial support to SQL Server this year (finally joining the party that Postgress, IBM DB2, and Oracle were already at), and Microsoft’s & Google’s ongoing battle for control of digital earth becoming a fertile playground for other map/data vendors, I think the MLSes / big brokers will probably start embracing data visualization on their web sites, since the technology is becoming more affordable, easier to use, and because most brokers / agents want pretty charts & maps with their name & brand on it, instead somebody else’s.

The glass is still half full

Having lived through the great tech wreck (or dot.com bubble if you prefer) I think it’s helpful to remember that someday the mortgage meltdown and real estate slump will come to end. If you believe in the future of real estate in your community (and most of you wouldn’t be reading this blog if you didn’t), now is a great time to invest in your business or yourself while your competitors exit the business in bad times. If that means adding great people to your staff, encouraging the less effective agents to get out or get better or finding better opportunities elsewhere, learning more about technology, or just plain blogging more often, just do something, to make yourself better. When the market turns around, you’ll hopefully be more successful than ever with fewer competitors.

Also, despite the fact I often complain about the state of MLS data in the industry, the real estate industry aren’t the tech laggards they portray themselves to be. After the tech industry, real estate is probably a very close second in terms of blogging and consumer transparency. You’re probably among the leaders in using mobile technologies, you’re your helping push the limits mapping technology and helping vendors define the direction. For example, a typical e-commerce store finder is way inferior to the AJAX maps so many real estate web sites now have.

Warning: Shameless plug ahead

My star client (Gordon Stephenson of Real Property Associates) finally set up his Real Estate from the Trenches blog at http://blog.seattlehouses.com/. I especially enjoyed his predictions for the new year post. I also had next nothing to do with it (I only helped w/ domain black magic and added links to their blog from their main web site), he did all the heavy lifting himself (see anybody can set up a blog). I also want to thank him for his business this past year, and introducing me to Rod Mar’s (Seattle Times Sports Photographer) – Best Seat in the House blog. I have a new appreciation for photography & the Seahawks thanks to his entertaining blog. Anyway, add them both to your favorite feed reader.