To follow up from last week’s Inman Connect, here are the answers from panelists to the question, “When will the housing market recover?”
Noah Rosenblatt, Founder of Urbandigs
Severe and deep recession, housing may bottom at the end of 2009 with recovery in 2011.
Dottie Herman, President, Prudential Douglas Elliman
We’ll hit bottom in the first quarter of 2009, after the election and stay flat for a few years.
Avram Goldman, President and CEO of Pacific Union GMAC Real Estate
We’re in a recession now. Some markets will do fine and go up, some markets will be down a long time.
Yves Smith, NakedCapitalism
I wish I could say 2010. The Alt-A ARM resets bother me because they will peak in 2011. Market will bottom in 2010 and stay flat for a long time.
John Williams, Economist; Shadowstats.com
We’ll have an L shaped decline, hyperinflation, and a great depression.
CR, CalculatedRisk
Foreclosures are moving upstream. Notice of defaults will rise in the mid and higher price ranges. They’ll never reach the foreclosure levels of the subprime loans, but foreclosures in the mid and higher price ranges will rise. Wonders if our government is out of tricks; the new housing bill doesn’t do much, but we have to have confidence in our GSEs. Different areas will bottom out at different times: 2010 to 2012.
Same question, two days later, different panel. Here are their answers:
Alex Perriello, CEO Realogy
We’ll have a sloppy, rocky, bumpy bottom. It’s not pretty where we are today. Inventory is key. We can support 4.6 to 4.8 million sales nationwide. The last time inventory was this high (nationwide it is 11 months) was in 1986. Inventory drives price. Realtors should datamine their clients who bought 2002 and prior: Sell them a new home! Market to renters! Alex says it’s too early to call the bottom.
Joel Singer, EVP, California Assoc of Realtors
Prices are exploding downward in CA. Worried that if anything happens to the GSEs all bets are off. There’s a lot of wild cards in the financial sector. Cali seems to have hit a bottom but this may be a false bottom.
Patrick Stone, Chairman, The Stone Group
What hasn’t been fully communicated is that price stability has been achieved in a third of the country. In the next six months, we’ll see another third achieve it. The last third will achieve price stability in “probably one year” unless we have a cataclysmic event where the impact on our economy could be severe. The stability of our financial system is paramount to finding the bottom.
Jonathan Miller, Co-Founder, Miller Samuel, inc.
It’s very challenging for appraisers to come up with a value when there’s a lower pace of sales. Until progress is made with the credit markets, it is too soon to talk about the bottom. To call a bottom is not professional. We can’t do it.