Quiet tears stream down my face…
My whole life, and all that I have witnessed and experienced, flashes past as if in fast forward in my brain…
I believe in God…I pledge myself to this Country and its people…
Words I once heard very long ago, and have never forgotten, come to the forefront…
“Keep us, O Lord, from all pettiness…and let us forget not…to be kind.”
It is a great day…truly the first day…of the rest of our lives.
The charts and graphs will pretty much speak for themselves tonight.
The Median Price Per Square Foot chart above shows medians for each Quarter from 2004 though 2008. You can see the nose dive in prices during the last quarter of 2008. Popped right through 2006 prices into 2005 year end prices. I expect to see prices come up a bit during the higher volume months of 2009, and then trend back down toward year end.
What are “the higher volume months”? See the volume graphs below comparing 2008 with 2002. 2002 was the most stable year, prior to zero down loans coming into fashion in late 2003. There will likely be more late postings for December closings, but the relationship of each piece of the pie is more important than the individual numbers. “stable market” equals larger slices near the bottom of the circle than at the top and a fairly equivalent ratio. We did not have that in 2007, but we did in 2008 and likely will see the same in 2009. 2009 will either be fairly similar to 2008 as to volume, or moving a little closer to 2002 volume. It depends on what happens at the high end of the market.
Current volume is lower than 2002 for two reasons. One – financing is tighter, as 5% down and 10% down was much easier to get in 2002. Two – financing jumbo loans is very difficult right now, and in 2002 only 412 homes sold for over a million dollars. In 2008 there are 2,338 homes asking more than a million dollars, of which 942 sold, 79 are pending and 1,317 are for sale as of tonight.
If we do see 4.5% interest rates, I expect many who can, will buy. But that won’t help the high end as too many people just don’t have the downpayments the lenders are looking for. The year ended up pretty much where I predicted it at $400,000 as to median price, give or take fifty bucks. Volume was a little lower at 15,700 vs. my prediction of 16,500.
Enjoy the graphs…they speak volumes.
Statistics calculated by ARDELL and not compiled or posted by NWMLS (required disclosure)
One of the most important questions people are asking themselves these days when buying a house is, “Will I lose money if I have to sell it?” Fair question for sure. The most likely answer is yes, if you are going to need to sell it in the not too distant future. Stay in it for a decade, is more the order of the day these days.
Of course some people will still be buying houses, regardless. For those people who are buying a house, I say “Don’t buy a house that YOU like!” I know that seems like an odd statement, but it is very important that you buy a house that MOST people will like.
1) Spend hours in a house before you buy it; not minutes.
Don’t you think it’s odd that some people spend less time in a house before they buy it, than I spend picking out a pair of earrings or stockings at Nordstrom’s Rack?
2) Write down what you like and what you don’t like.
If there is nothing on the list that you don’t like, you probably aren’t looking hard enough. There is no such thing as a house without pros and cons. Bring some people with you, including your buyer’s agent. Have everyone quietly write down the pros and cons. Don’t discuss with each other until everyone is finished. If your buyer’s agent has no cons on their list, fire them. Now compare everyone’s lists while still inside the house. One at a time, each can explain why they do or don’t like various aspects of the house. It is more likely that you won’t miss something if you take the time to do this.
3) Ask your buyer’s agent what things they might ask you to do to this house, if you called them back to sell it.
Make a list, before you make an offer, of all of the cons and note which can be corrected and which can not. Traffic noise is not something you can correct when the windows are open in summer. Seeing cars go by, might be something you can correct with landscaping. Bright gold switchplates changed out is simple, cheap and takes little time. Take the time to go through all of the cons to determine if there are any that cannot be corrected. Then try to like something without things that cannot be corrected.
4) Be careful of homes that are just over a price break point
Everyone knows that an asking price of $599,950 is better than one priced at $609,950. In these times when people view property on the internet they put in a “cap price” such as $600,000. Consequently, you have a better chance of “breaking even” if you have to sell the house, if you buy it at $580,000 than if you pay $610,000. Just is. Don’t argue that point. Just is.
5) Let the majority rule
Don’t buy a house if you are the only one who likes it. If it is a vacant house, it’s easier to get a lot of people to come over and spend a bit of time in it. If 2 people like it, including you, and 10 people hate it…keep looking. The more you overlook what other people think about the house…the harder it will be to sell it if and when you have to sell it.
Agents often say Price will fix any Problem…but that is NOT true! In a market in which only 3 of every 10 homes readily sell, you don’t want to be one of the 3 that no one wants at any price. 10 houses for sale = 3 sell because everyone likes them…4 sell because they are a good value…3 get passed over repeatedly. You don’t want to own one of those last 3 houses.
Test what you like against what MOST people like. Better to pay a few dollars more for a house that is generally appealing, then to get a great buy on the house with the most negatives.
Instructor of the Year
Jillayne Schlicke wins
INSTRUCTOR OF THE YEAR AWARD!!!
from the King County Association of Realtors as voted by the Realtors and Jillayne’s students.
WOOHOO!!!!
C O N G R A T U L A T I O N S !!! JILLAYNE!
YOU GO GIRL!!!!!
9 lbs, 4 oz – perfect – Mom and Dad happy and well.
Savannah Jane Fleck
What will be the tipping point that creates the paradigm shift that is needed in the Real Estate Industry?
To begin, I would like to quote a small portion of “Productive Workplaces Revisited” noted in the second link above. “He put into…context, the age old struggle between authority and dependency”…In so doing he found an audience hungry to find alternatives to bureaucracy, authoritarianism, alienation…not simple ideology…an expression of life’s purpose – affirming diginity in every person, finding meaning in valued work, achieving community through mutual support and accomplishment.”
The above is from a book titled “PRODUCTIVE WORKPLACES REVISITED” – Dignity, Meaning and Community in the 21st Century” by Marvin Weisbord in 1987. That link provides information regarding Mr. Weisbord’s many books. For the purpose of this blog post, I am simply borrowing the above excerpt which I have modified to fit most any Real Estate Office in the Country, and a movement that is afoot.
The Paradigm Shift is also referred to as “A Mental Revolution” elsewhere in that publication, (use the search feature and put in paradigm shift for more info on that.)
The problem as I see it, in the structure of the Real Estate Industry, may simply be the old “Too many chiefs and not enough Indians”. What the Real Estate Industry, and every Real Estate Company in the Industry, and every Real Estate Office in every Real Estate Company, has not answered correctly is quite simply this:
WHO IS THE CUSTOMER?
In most realities, the customer of the Brokerage is the Agent. That is something that most buyers and sellers of real estate do not get to see. The inside of a real estate office is about the customer…the customer being the Agent. The Agent is paying the Broker. The Broker cannot survive unless it adequately serves its customers…the agents, not the buyers and sellers of homes.
Take a look at the photo below:
Meeting of Professionals
If the people gathered around that table were Doctors, you might hear talk such as: “I have a patient…I have tried this and that…has anyone had a similar… Yes, I have found X to work for many of my patients, here is a study on X I found the other day…” The talk around that table, would be about better treatment for the patient.
If the people gathered around that table were lawyers and paralegals, you might hear talk such as “I have a case where the defendent is…I haven’t found adequate support for this client’s…. Try X vs. X, I’ll go get it for you. Is there any other way we might tackle this in Court to show that our client…” The talk around that table, would be about helping this client win this case.”
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Rarely, if ever, do you find a room full of real estate agents discussing ways to find a better answer for a particular buyer or seller.
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The reality is that most times a Broker will set up meetings that help agents sell more houses. Rarely is the discussion about the buyers and sellers of homes. If an agent has a problem selling a home, then agents will filter ideas that ultimately do help the seller. But when the client/customer is a buyer, the conversation all too often revolves around helping the agent “sell a house TO” that buyer.
There are many discussions with regard to “Real Estate ProfessIonals“. Some of us equate ourselves to doctors and lawyers. Many more view themselves as (merely) salespeople, and then complain when “real estate agent” comes up on a list next to “used car salesman” on consumer confidence and trust lists.
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The Tipping Point that will create the needed Paradigm Shift is A Mental Revolution with this Call to Arms:
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TO BROKERS:
1) TAKE DOWN ALL OF THE “SALES” BOARDS AND STOP HAVING SALES CONTESTS.
2) STOP TALKING ABOUT “MORE LEADS” AND INSTEAD ASK YOUR AGENTS IF THEY NEED ANY HELP MEETING THE NEEDS OF THEIR EXISTING CLIENTS.
3) HAVE AT LEAST ONE MEETING A WEEK WHERE THE AGENTS MEET TO DISCUSS THE NEEDS OF THEIR BUYER AND SELLER CLIENTS, AND NEVER TALK ABOUT THEIR NEED TO “CLOSE” A PERSON IN THAT MEETING. CONSUMER-CENTRIC VS. AGENT-CENTRIC MEETING.
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TO AGENTS:
1) TRY NOT USING THE WORD “I” FOR 21 DAYS.
2) WHEN YOU APPROACH SOMEONE FOR ASSISTANCE, MAKE SURE THAT ASSISTANCE IS FOR YOUR CLIENT AND NOT YOURSELF
3) FIGHT FOR ANYTHING YOU “NEED” TO HELP “THEM” AND NOT YOU.
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TO THE GOVERNOR OF THE STATE OF WASHINGTON (& possibly other States, as well)
RECOGNIZE THE DISCONNECT BETWEEN YOUR AGENCY LAW THAT HOLDS REAL ESTATE LICENSEES TO THE STANDARD OF “REPRESENTATION OF PEOPLE”…AND THEN GIVES THEM A “SALESPERSON” LICENSE.
There are many, many real estate agents who aspire to assist their clients well. There are many, many real estate agents who “hung(er for) alternatives to bureaucracy, authoritarianism, alienation…not simple ideology…an expression of life’s purpose – affirming diginity in every person, finding meaning in valued work, achieving community through mutual support and accomplishment.
#10 – You may lose your job. When you don’t pay your rent, they put you on the street in 20 days. When you don’t pay your mortgage payment, they don’t put you on the street for at least 8 months.#8 – Many a marriage has been saved…by buying a house with two staircases.
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#7 – You just read *page 114* of Harlan Coben’s “Promise Me” (see below), and you live in a “garden apartment”.
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#6 – Your girlfriend is demanding equal treatment to your wife.
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#5 – Your boyfriend is demanding equal treatment to your wife.
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#4 – Your mother-in-law just bought a 1 way ticket to your apartment
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#3 – Your bank account is bigger than your home office
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#2 – God said: Your real estate agent, banker and mortgage rep all need you to buy a house, right NOW!. This is a direct message from God. No kidding.
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NUMBER ONE: Your 4 year old is riding the dog, and dragging the baby around like a pull toy, because she needs a yard and swing set.
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*Page 114* “lived alone in the same crappy “garden” apartment for more than a decade…they call them “garden” though the only thing that seemed to grow was the monotonous red brick…sturdy structures with the personality of prison cells, way stations for people on their way up or down and for a few, stuck in a certain personal-life purgatory.”
Frustrated Home Buyer
Remember when JFK said we would go to the moon? Remember the excitement of being part of something new!? Let’s create a big, fat wish today that we, in the Seattle area, want to constantly be the prototype for the Country with regard to an MLS and how it functions.
We are the trendsetters (we being Seattle) as to The Internet and how people use it.
Here’s a “workshop” post. I think “the mls” is “broke” and it needs fixing. You decide for yourself after reading this. We all “accept” that people start their search on the Internet…right?
Let’s all take a good, hard look at HOW they start their search on the internet.
OK…I’m Average Joe and I think I want to move to Kirkland. I go to the internet and I Google “Kirkland” and I find this super-duper site provided by The City of Kirkland. It tells me:
It gives an an “on demand” video stream of all of the Kirkland Council meetings and provides the minutes of the meetings, so I can see if it’s the kind of place I might like to live.
There’s even a link to Kirkland TV on every topic I might be interested in…WOW! I like this place called Kirkland. They certainly care about keeping everyone informed, and they clearly embrace new technologies. My kind of place.
Bur where in Kirkland might be the best place for me? OK…lets Google “Kirkland Neighborhoods”. I find this great link to everything I ever wanted to know about Kirkland Neighborhoods. I find the cool Explore Kirkland site and even Walking Maps sorted by the various Neighborhoods. Wow! Every Neighborhood in Kirkland has it’s own Association! What a wonderful sense of community, and they certainly take their Neighborhoods seriously!
Isn’t this Super-Cool!!! I can figure out everything I need to know in my jammies, without leaving the house…at 1 a.m! That’s the kind of place I want to live in! They have embraced Technology! Woohoo!
My world’s a better place because the City of Kirkland cared enough to make everything they do, and everything I need to know, accessible on the Internet! I’m going to buy a house in Kirkland! YAY!!!
SO JOE TAKES THE KIRKLAND NEIGHBORHOOD MAP (that he found on the Internet) TO A REAL ESTATE OFFICE, because he doesn’t know which Neighborhoods of these he can afford to live in.
BEFORE looking at houses on the Internet…he has a few questions.
Agent: Can I help you?
Joe: Can you please hit a button on your computer over there, and tell me the median price of a home in each of these neighborhoods?
Agent: What’s your price range? I’ll be happy to show you some homes right now!
Joe: Well..no…I really just want to know which of these neighborhoods on this map here from the City I can afford to live in. I’m not ready to look at homes yet.
Agent: Do you have a pre-approval letter? I’ll be happy to get our lender over here and tell you how much you can afford.
Joe: (starting to get angry) Lady, I just want to know the median price of these neighborhoods! Can you help me or not!? OK…let me make this easier for you (you idiot). Just tell me the median price of this neighborhood. This one. Here on the map of Kirkland Neighborhoods. “Lakeview” Just go over to the computer and hit a couple of buttons and tell me what the median price of Lakeview is, PLEASE!
Agent: Well, you don’t need to get angry, sir. I am more than happy to help you, but you OBVIOUSLY don’t know what you are doing, because the mls doesn’t HAVE a neighborhood called “Lakeview”, (Mr. Smartypants).
Joe: Hmmm? How about this one over here…”Norkirk”?
Agent: “We” call that East of Market. kindof. When you get down here some agents call that “Downtown”. Some agents just put in Kirkland for all of it. Would you like me to do a search by Zip Code?
Joe: NO! I don’t want you to do a search by Zip Code! According to this great map the City “gave me” there are a dozen neighborhoods! I don’t want TWO zip code answers! I want TWELVE median price answers you freakin’ moron! One for each of these REAL Neighborhoods!!!
(Joe leaves in a huff. Agent says to agent next to them in the office, “one of those Microsoftees. Boy are they a pain in the ass” They think they know everything.)
Joe goes into a different real estate office:
Joe: Can you please hit a button on your computer over there, and tell me the median price of a home in each of these neighborhoods? Joe hands the agent the same great map the City of Kirkland “gave him” on their cool site.
Agent: Here’s “our” map. This is the one “WE” use. It’s broken down by all of these code numbers that only agents know.
Joe: Can you give me a few minutes to study this thing, because all of my research so far geared me to searching by the neighborhoods. The real neighborhoods. The one’s the City and the people who live here use. (Joe realizes he’s not going to get anywhere until he figures out this stupid “code map”, so he gives it a quick study.)
Agent: Do you have a pre-approval letter? Do you want to go see some houses today, because it’s really a Great Time to Buy! Can I make some appointments while you study “our” map? How many bedrooms do you want? Do you have children? Pets? Where do you work? Here’s some testimonials from some of my clients who love me. Here’s a link to my website with lots of useful information. Here’s a Buyer’s Guide to help you understand all the things I’m going to be doing for you.
Joe: (I wish this agent would shut the fck up, so I can look at this map.) You know what. I think I’m going to go get something to eat. Can I borrow this code map to read while I’m eating?
Agent: What’s your price range? I’ll line up a few houses to see while you’re eating lunch!
Joe: $750,000
(Joe leaves with the secret code map and never returns. Agent says to agent next to him, “Well…what the heck is wrong with that guy? Where IS he? I’ve made five appointments to see these houses. What am I going to do?” Other agent, “You know what they say, “Buyers are Liars”.)
Joe tries to decipher the secret code map.
Joes’ Wife: Honey, did you figure out which neighborhoods we can afford in Kirkand?
Joe: Well, I’ve spent all day in two different real estate offices, and I can’t get a straight answer out of anyone! This stupid realtor code map doesn’t help at all!!! They are calling ALL of Kirland, Area 560!
Joe’s Wife: Honey…I know you’ve wasted a whole day with this stupid real estate agent stuff. We don’t need an agent! Let’s just go Google “mls Kirkland”and look at some houses and calm down, OK?
Joe: OK. Sorry. I didn’t mean to take it out on you. I’m just SO FRUSTRATED!
Joe Googles “mls Kirkland”. He finds Kirkland Home Search – The MLS Online He clicks “home search”. He changes the drop down to “King County”. He clicks on “Kirkland”. He puts in his real price, not the lie he told the agent to get the heck out of that office. He puts in minimum of 3 bedrooms. It says “10 Actives Found”.
Joe: This site says there are only 10 houses in Kirkland priced between $500,000 and $525,000. I thought there was a record number of houses for sale? This can’t be right!
Joe’s Wife: Try $450,000 to $550,000.
Joe: OK. That’s better. It says 58. Still, not as many as I was expecting based on what I’ve been reading in the paper. A whole City only has 58 houses in our price range? Let’s see if I can figure out which of these Neighborhoods they are in. (He clicks “View Actives List”.) Honey? What do you think “active” means? Can’t they just say For Sale!?
Joe’s Wife: Now down’t get started. Just get to the houses, OK? What do you see?
(Joe says FCK…it’s starting at the most expensive house at $550,000. I don’t want her to see this. Good, here’s a re-sort button from lo to hi.)
Joe: One second, honey. OK…here’s a really nice one for $450,000.
Joe’s Wife: That looks nice. What’s a “split-entry”?
Joe: I don’t know. Can’t these G’damn agents speak English!!!
Joe’s Wife: Calm down. What neighborhood is it in?
Joe: I’m looking at the pictures. It has wood floors. Those look like new windows. Looks pretty nice.
Joe’s Wife: What neighborhood is it in?
Joe: It doesn’t say. It says “Kirkland”. Here’s a map of where it is…I can see a train track. FCK…THIS ISN’T WORKING!!!
Joe Wife: Honey, I think we really DO need to get an agent.
Joe: NO! Fck that! That’s why they are doing this! They are making it impossible for me to do anything! All I wanted was the median price of the neighborhoods in Kirkland. Is that too much to ask!?!? No. No agent. They are not going to win! NO!
Joe’s Wife: (Crying)
Joe: (turns on the football game.)
I think it’s broke and needs fixing. What do you think?
I recently heard the term “balloon frame” from someone on Twitter discussing the fire hazards and potential dangers to firemen. It was a local person, and so it caught my attention. I have never heard a home inspector advise a home owner that they were buying a home with a “balloon frame”. Nor have I ever heard a home inspector note the potential hazards.
Here are a couple of links regarding balloon homes and firemen that the Twitterer was kind enough to send me.
I would appreciate comments from anyone having knowledge on this topic.
Thank you.
We have a few hours to go before we ring in the New Year of 2009. But I wanted to take a few moments to thank all of our readers, my fellow writers, and the many people who comment here, for making Rain City Guide the special place that it is.
Tomorrow will mark my third anniversary of blogging. Honestly, I can hardly imagine my world without it. It’s been a rewarding experience and, I value my “blogfriends” and my “blogclients” more than…well, more than lots of things.
Tonight at midnight, I’ll take a cup of kindess, probably hot chocolate, and think of all the special people in my life. Not the least of which being, Dustin and Anna Luther, Jillayne Schlicke, Rhonda Porter, Tim and Lynlee Kane, Robbie, Steph and Harrison Paplin, Galen Ward, Deborah Burns…these wonderful people are part of my extended family.
And as the Coke/Walmart young man said: “When you stock up on Joy, there’s enough to go round”.
Thank you everyone, for being part of the Joy of my Life. Many Happy Returns…
