About ARDELL

ARDELL is a Managing Broker with Better Properties METRO King County. ARDELL was named one of the Most Influential Real Estate Bloggers in the U.S. by Inman News and has 34+ years experience in Real Estate up and down both Coasts, representing both buyers and sellers of homes in Seattle and on The Eastside. email: ardelld@gmail.com cell: 206-910-1000

Sunday Night Stats

Before I get to the regular stats, I like to post a little something of interest that demonstrates why we are looking at the stats so closely.

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Home sales have been running fairly consistently at 32% fewer homes sold over the same month last year, which was down from the number of homes sold the year prior.

This week’s Stats:

King County Residential Sales

Active/For Sale – 9,127 – UP 110 – avg. price $729,463 – median price $519,993

In Escrow – 2,557 – UP 104 – avg. price $569,757 – median price $449,900

Closed YTD – 1,551 – UP 266 – avg. price $553,634 – median price $439,000

King Conty Condo Sales

Active/For Sale – 3,256 – UP 78 – avg. price $455,493 – median price $325,000

In Escrow – 882 – UP 20 – avg. price $$407,528 – median price $315,000

Closed YTD – 533 – 101 – avg. price $356,267 – median price $279,999

Inventory is still coming on at a faster pace than properties are selling, but the single family home market seems to be doing better with that than the condo market.

I noticed during Broker’s Opens this week that many townhomes on the Eastside are encroaching on the price range of some halfway decent single family homes. I think that is bad news for people asking a half a million dollars for older townhomes with deferred maintenance exteriors in less than stellar locations, from what I have seen.

I also see weakness in the condo markets on the Eastside, and that appears to be both due to fewer investors as well as owner-occupied buyers. So financing is not the only issue accounting for the 32% drop in sales.

Per mls rules I must state that these stats are compiled and posted by me, ARDELL, and not the NWMLS.

“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.

WEB 2.0 vs. WEB 1.5 and Blogwars

“Web 2.0 can be defined as “the philosophy of mutually maximizing collective intelligence and added value for each participant by formalized and dynamic information sharing and creation.” Web 1.5 is where the information is conveyed differently by the industry practitioner, but the industry practitioner doesn’t understand that .5 of the “added value” comes from the commenter who disagrees with the post or adds more info than the post itself conveys.

Many of the blogwars going around, and not just the one involving Sellsius and BHB and 4Realz, are actually based on a growing separation involving the meaning of WEB 2.0. Just as every industry and activity since the beginning of time divides into 80% vs. 20% groups, so does the meaning of WEB 2.0. 80% will grab it as a new way to make money off of it. 20% will try to “get it” and apply it properly to the betterment of the industry as a whole. Such is life and no one can change that or stop the fights over it.

It really boils down to interpretation of “added value”. Is that value monetary? Some will erroneously assume so, as they think everything is about how to make more money. No one can change that. But the principle of WEB 2.0 is about the change in the way information is presented and BY WHOM it is presented. WEB 1.0 is a commercial – a one sided mirror. WEB 2.0 is an exchange of ideas where the general public is not the “reader” only, or the one “information is conveyed TO“, but the most important part of the information process and where the “added value” comes from.

If you argue your right to control information, as the information may not be conducive to your monetary objective, then you are at WEB 1.5, not WEB 2.0. It’s as simple as that. If you still want a one way mirror where you control the information in the comments, other than pure flaming deletions and spam deletions, and not transparent glass where more value comes from the anonymous commenter than the post writer, then you don’t “get” WEB 2.0.

Of course that’s my definition and how I understand it. Perhaps a Buyer’s Perspective is likely the best example of WEB 2.0 as far as the real estate industry is concerned, available on the internet today. ALL of the lesson learned is learned by the agents, and not the potential buyer of real estate. The potential buyer of real estate is the one doing the teaching, not the agent.

RCG is one of the best examples of WEB 2.0. Not because I am more transparent than many agents. Not because Rhonda conveys tons of good lending info to consumers. Not because Jillayne presents the underbelly of what is happening out there in her inimitable style of presenting that information. RCG is the best example of WEB 2.0 because of what readers learn from Tony Chase in the COMMENTS section of the Popcorn Ceiling Removal post. It is the best example of WEB 2.0 because of what we all learn from czb, and Biliruben, and Sniglet, and Polly and Adrianna and Jack and yes even Synthetik 🙂 to name just a few. They are WEB 2.0, not us. We cannot create WEB 2.0. We can only create an environment for WEB 2.0 to thrive in, so those commenting can create WEB 2.0 by the value added via their comments.

They, both the named and the anonymous commenters, are WEB 2.0. Not us.

Until agents and lenders and industry practitioners and vendors of services to agents, understand that “mutually maximizing collective intelligence and added value for each participant by formalized and dynamic information sharing and creation.” is NOT about what THEY SAY in the post itself, but what they learn from those commenting on what they say, in particular from those who add more to the info in the post and often those who disagree with the information in the post, there will be blogwars.

Change never happens without disruption, Rome wasn’t built in a day and rarely do more than 20% ever “get it” at all. Most will stop even trying to “get it” at the point where they find a way to make money off of it. That’s how innovative principles become “buzz” words only, because the buck stops there.

Skinny Bitch and Jenny Craig

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I promised my friends over at Jenny Craig in Bellevue that I would post some of my methods for moving toward my goal weight so quickly. I’m actually at my halfway point.

When I left Inman’s Real Estate Connect in San Francisco last year, I picked up the book Skinny Bitch to read on the airplaine on the way home. Nothing says “lose some weight” like speaking on stage to over 1,000 people in the audience. There’s no way to stop people from snapping photos and posting them on the internet or podcasting presentations and putting them out on Inman TV. So losing weight became a priority before Inman’s 2008 Real Estate Connect in San Francisco for me.

What’s this have to do with Seattle and Real Estate? Lots! Truth be told, the “dirty little secret of moving to Seattle”, especially from year round warmer climate areas, is you gain weight. Just before I moved to Seattle back in 2004, Tom Leykis did a piece on the radio about his visit to Seattle and the women having the biggest butts he’d ever seen. Crude, and my butt didn’t get big, but the weather does lend itself to weight gain if you are the type that likes outdoor exercise vs. going to a gym.

When cooking, I often read five recipes for the same dish, and then make it based on a combination of them all. Same with weight loss. I integrated a bit of the Skinny Bitch principals to the Jenny Craig plan. I had been to Jenny Craig years ago after I had my three children two year’s apart, with good and lasting success until my move to Seattle. So I had no doubt that I would accomplish what I set out to do. When you are in the business of helping others achieve their goals, achieving your own goals is paramount. No room for maybe won’t.

The first week I lost 3.6 lbs and then 2.8 lbs. pretty consistently for each of the 4 other weeks. Never even a fraction of a lb. UP in that time. While I’m not a vegan, like Skinny Bitch espouses, there is very little meat in the Jenny Craig food, so that principle is somewhat covered. What I don’t do that Jenny Craig says to do and Skinny Bitch suggests, is I never eat when I am not hungry. I don’t space out the meals and my Jenny Craig friends laugh when I tell them that I pile my lunch and breakfast on top of my dinner and eat it all at once at night LOL!

My days go by so fast in real estate, that I often don’t stop to eat, though I am drinking the 64 ounces of water prescribed under the plan during the day. No one wants to drink 64 ounces of water all at once, especially before going to bed.

Moral of the story, don’t fight your natural eating patterns and don’t eat when you are not hungry. For the first 3-4 weeks I did not change my exercise activity. Some exercise, but not more than my normal. I adjusted to the 1,200 calorie per day pattern first, and that was enough to lose the initial 10 lbs or so. When the weight loss looked like it might be slowing down from the food change alone, I kicked in the exercise. I play disco music and walk around the block several times, reversing the direction each time I get back to my house. There’s a nice hill going up 1st Street and a slightly less incline coming up 2nd Street, so I go one way and then the other.

I either play The Rolling Stones Disc 2 of the Forty Licks CD set, or a walking disco tape. I’ve been doing my step exercise with Mick Jagger for years, since my Richard Simmons Sweat and Step tape got eaten. I see it is back in print while writing this post. YAY! I’m ordering that right now! I try to add a song each day (thanks Jeremy Keener for that tip) instead of counting the trips around the block. I haven’t made it through Jack, Jack, Jackie yet, which reminds me of my daughter Jackie, but it keeps me close to home in case all the water I am drinking while walking (usually 32 ounces) has an affect 🙂

Drinking the water is often the hardest part, so I did buy two things from Jenny Craig. One is their scale because I swore that the reason my weight didn’t seem to change for three years no matter what I did was the scale’s fault. I ditched the “meany scale” and bought the Body Balance Scale at Jenny Craig that records digitally in ounces, and I get weighed every morning to make sure I’m not kidding myself into thinking I’m on track if I’m not. The other is the Jenny water bottle with built in straw and water filtration system. Drinking two of those vs. throw away water bottles is better for the environment and the purple cap reminds me not to eat or drink anything that doesn’t have the Jenny Craig seal of approval.

I did take Sarah Washburn’s brother Ovid out to lunch yesterday over at the Pumphouse. But had no problem eating my Chicken Caesar salad with no dressing and a sprinkling of plain vinegar, while he downed a big burger and fries. I took one fry and put it on my plate to show that I could, but the plate went back with the salad gone and the lone french fry proudly placed in the center of the plate. When I went to the ladies room I told Ovid that if he were my friend he would hide that fry while I was away. We then removed it from its hiding place and put it on the plate as the waitress came to clear the table.

The waitress smiled, and in that smile I could see that seeing someone being steadfast in their goals, gave her a feeling that she too could achieve her goals…whatever they may be. Sometimes we stick to our goals and objectives to show others that they too…can be successful at just about anything they want to achieve. We support one another the way the ground on your property supports the structure next door. We are an interdependent society, and the ripple effect of leading by example, is an awesome and rewarding responsibility.

Sunday Night Stats – King County

Before I calculate the stats for this week, I’d like to take a minute to explain why I am being this tedious. Week to week stats calculate momentum of the market. Will new inventory grow faster than properties are going into escrow? So far only one week showed a slight decline in inventory, with more properties going into escrow than came on market.

While I fully understand that one week does not a market make, here’s the skinny. Take a look at the graphs below. It’s a long way before we can look at the first quarter of 2008, so let’s look at the three month period beginning 11/ 1 and ending 1/31.

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Number of residential sales are down by 44% from the same period in 04-05. Condos are down 31% both from last year to this year and 04-05 compared to this year. Residential is down 32% compared to the same period last year.
It would appear that the condo market was picking up where the residential market was losing, in previous years. That would reflect buyers being squeezed out of the Single Family Home market and opting for condos, due to affordability.

The just over 30% decline this year appears to be more reflective of the number of buyers who are squeezed out by changes in the mortgage industry, or fear of the unknown.

This week’s stats:

King County – Residential

For sale – 9,017- UP 138

In Escrow – 2,453 – UP 152

Closed year to date – 1,285 – UP 214

King County – Condo Market

For sale – 3,178 – UP 96

In escrow – 862 – UP 34

Closed year to date – 432 – UP 70

As you can see, condos are coming on market at a higher rate than they are selling, moreso than single family residences. Since more single family home owners wait until Spring than condo owners, this is not surprising.

I’m sure we will see stories coming out that the market is “picking up”. However February being better than January doesn’t tell the story of this year’s decline of about 30% compared to last year. While it is possible that the mortgage industry changes did not squeeze out a full 30% of buyers, many are being more conservative, even if the lenders don’t require them to be.

“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.

Get Ready to Sell with ARDELL – Part 1

So you are thinking you are going to put your house on market in “The Spring”. Well, me too. So let’s do this together, step by step.

1) Set Your List Price.
You will check that again when it is time to list the home, but you can’t start getting the home ready to sell, until you know the price. Zillow says my home is worth $1,061,000. I bought it in September of 2005 for $850,000. Because I’m at a major price tier of under or over a million dollars, I know that if I price it over a million I will have to do a whole lot more than if I price it up to a million. So I’m setting the list price at $999,950. It’s very important to know what price you are aiming for before making your “to do” list.

One of the biggest mistakes sellers make is setting the price AFTER they get it ready for market. To some extent, that is why many sellers overprice their homes. Don’t think all that work ADDS value. That work is needed to achieve fair market value. But if you price it after you have spent time, money and effort, you will likely want to ADD to the price of the home, while in that state of “look at everything I have done”. Price it first, then do the work.

2) What is the Number One Feature of Your Home?
The #1 Feature of your home is that which produces the most return on investment. For my home it is actually not the home itself, but the location and the view. Sitting high up in the “View Corridor” of Kirkland, between 1st and 2nd Street, gives the home that always light and bright feel. Dramatic views of Lake Washington and the Seattle Skyline across the Lake including the Space Needle. We love to sit up on our bed and watch 9-12 sets of fireworks on the Fourth of July. The Kirkland Fireworks are framed right in the window and the bedroom has two walls of windows with the views centered right in the center of the window. Sometimes I wonder if that is coincidence or if the builder who did the addition to this 1921 bungalow in 1994, made sure Mt. Rainier was dead center in the “picture window” in the master bedroom sitting room. Sunsets, sweeping lake views from all of the remaining windows not facing Mt. Rainer. Then when you step out front to go to your car, you are awed by the view of the snow capped Olympic Mountains.

So Step 2 for me is to hire a professional photographer to take view shots. For the cost of $400 to $500, Harley will come over on the day HE feels best, to take those view shots. Don’t leave photos of the view to chance. Get the photographer set from the beginning, and also snap photos on your own, at every opportunity. I already know that while I may be the Greatest Real Estate Agent in the World…or not :), that Harley is much better equipped to take those view shots. Mother Nature may not cooperate when you get to the day you need those photos. So get the photographer in gear now, even though he likely will have to come back again when you are ready to list the home, for the inside shots. Give him a key to the house and say “Come by whenever you think it’s a good day for those view shots.” I have a West facing view, and I also want night shots. So the cost might be double at $800 to $1,000, but money well spent to highlight your #1 Home Feature.

3) Hire a Licensed Contractor
Make a list of all the things you were going to do, but didn’t. Then get a bid for ALL of those things from a Licensed Contractor before you decide which you will do and which you won’t. Choose by cost vs. “let’s not bother”. YOU do the shopping for what is needed, where possible. I already have light fixtures waiting to be hung in the Master Bathroom. I never liked those and they weren’t even put in the right place. So I’ve bought the replacement fixtures and marked where they will go. I’ll do before and after photos in a later segment. I have a huge list from a major change to a travertine floor and hall, to minor things like changing one of the lights from a timer to a switch. I’ll choose which to do based on price and return on investment, but I can’t do that until I know the price. Have the Contractor price out each job separately, then bulk the ones you decide to do for extra savings. Doing one thing costs more per job, than doing ten. After you have “The Big List”, get a new price list of the jobs chosen. It should be even less.

4) Curb Appeal Items
Since exterior items are “weather dependent”, get that list done now! I know I will have to paint the white picket fence, for example. I also know it will look better in a creamy white vs. the bright white that it is. It will need to be clean and dry, so start the cleaning now. You can clean it on a gray and cold day. Make sure you clean it thoroughly now so on a warm dry day, you can get right to painting it without more wet and dry time.

I’m buying a power washer. There are many things that need to be power washed, and in my business I might as well buy a power washer to help my sellers get their homes ready for market. Having a power washer at the ready, instead of hiring someone or renting one, let’s you do each job one at a time on different days as you have an extra hour or two, or are just bored with Step 5. Step 5 is boring, so a little break to go power wash another segment of the big fence job during your “break”, accomplishes two things at once.

5) De-Cluttering

While I have only lived in my house for a little over two years, it seems this job is still overwhelming. We didn’t sort well when we moved from Bellevue to Kirkland back in 2005, so we still have a garage full of stuff that we never unpacked and apparently don’t need. Kim seems to have every T-shirt and pair of jeans he has bought since he got home from Vietnam, up in our bedroom. Lots of “stuff” to sort.

The sorting process involves

1. Give Away – White Kitchen Trash Bags
2. Throw Away – Big Green or Black Trash Bags
3. Need Before we Move – Stored Out of Sight
4. Need for staging – Leave Out in Plain View
5. Need After We Move (i.e. Christmas Sweaters) – Box and Store OFF SITE

Trust me on this one. Put the give away and throw away items in two different colored trash bags and boxes for stuff you are keeping. Otherwise some helpful person will throw away your give away bag, or give away the stuff you meant to keep.
A quick visual of white = give away, black = throw away and box = to storage
will save you from lots of headaches down the line.

As soon as you have a car load of give away, get it OUT of the house and over to the Goodwill, even if it takes several trips. You will feel like you are getting somewhere and it will keep you going, if you get the stuff OUT every time you have ten bags or ten boxes. Trash may end up going to the dump vs. “trash day” deposits, so accumulate 10 bags and then get rid of them.

As soon as you think you are done…do it AGAIN! Looking at things a second time with no bags in the house will likely create a whole new set of bags and boxes. At second glance when the home is more cleared out, you realize that you really don’t need that before you move out.

6) Set your timeframes
I’ve decided I only need Spring and Summer stuff. Those hiking boots I’ve worn 3 times since I bought them can go into a box. All of my shorts and tank tops need to stay. Anything I won’t need before I go to Inman Connect in August is leaving the house! The house will go on market when “the pink trees are in bloom”. I don’t have any “pink trees”, but they are the first sign of Spring to me, along with the daffodils that I do have.

Pink Trees and Daffodils in Bloom is the day I list the house…so much to do before then.

I’ll keep you posted every step of the way, so you can Sell With Ardell, and we can keep each other motivated and on track. We’ve already brought one car load over to Goodwill…but we have a long way to go. Good Luck to all of us!

Greatest Real Estate Agent in The WORLD

…is some kind of SEO contest.

The prize looks kind of bogus to me.

“First place winner receives ummmm lets see – Ok a free REW template website ($740 value) Free hosting for a year on the new V 2.0 REW platform ($480) and throw in our $2500 CORE IDX and the $360 yearly fee on top of it – that works out to ummmm – let’s see about $4080 for first place – how’s THAT for a prize :)”

How do you read that prize?

I’m seeing the winner gets to pay at least $480 to them for hosting the “prize” for every year after the “free” year. The winner also gets to pay them another $360 a year ad infinitum for Core IDX services.

Who exactly is the winner in the long run?

******UPDATE****

It is my understanding that as a result of this post, the prize has been changed to include free hosting indefinitely.

***UPDATE***

I have a special request to update this post. I generally don’t do that, but at someone’s urgence that I expand the initial topic, I will.

Search Engines are trying very hard to serve a purpose on the internet. That purpose is to seek out and display good and valuable content. That is good for everyone, if allowed to perform its function.

However, some will try to trick the Search Engines into thinking that they have good and valuable content. They think this is a smart thing to do. Some even think it is great to charge people money to help them trick the Search Engines. This is a sin against not the Search Engines, but the general public, who rely on the internet to perform well. When someone searches a topic they are happy to find good and valuable content as the Search Engines intended. They are not happy to find a trickster who fooled the Search Engine into thinking they had good and valuable content.

Gaming the system is not good.

Frankly My Dear…You're Not

Frankly  My Dear

Just read a blog post written by a real estate agent, suggesting everyone should start all of their emails with “Dear”. I don’t think I have ever received an email starting off “Dear Ardell”. Maybe it’s because I am not “a Dear”.

Text messaging and emailing with my clients (mostly email) is our primary form of communication. Have I really been doing it incorrectly all this time? Is an email supposed to look like a formal letter, and am I really supposed to call everyone “Dear”?

If I do have to use a salutation, it might be more like “Yo Joe!” or “Hey Hilde!” Are salutations really appropriate for email communications?

Aren’t emails more like “interoffice memos” where you jump in and get right to the point? Is that rude? Or is it rude to call someone Dear…who isn’t MY Dear? or even Dear at all…

There Oughta Be a Law…

I was just reading an agent’s blog (not in our area) and saw a flyer with this photo on it.

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Was he asking how to get the room in better condition for the photos? No.

He was asking whether or not he should use Postlets or VFlyer to spread the word 🙂 LOL

Technology does not REPLACE being good at real estate.

Marketing is not all about where, how and when to spread the word. Getting “the word” right before you start spreading it around is more important than being a “tech savvy” agent.

Sunday Night Stats – King County

I’ve modified the format slightly to include month end stats and will continue that each week. For those just tuning in to Sunday Night Stats for King County, I post these every Sunday night and the UP or DOWN is as compared to last Sunday night’s data.

The data changes based on late postings. A sale closed in January can sometimes show up in February as January. So I’m updating the January closings each week as well, both here and in last Sunday night’s post. I’ve had some emails from people who are pulling these and putting them into spreadsheets. When we get past the 1st quarter, I’ll post a graph YOY by month and quarter.

King County – Residential

For sale – 8,879 – UP 241

In Escrow – 2301 – UP 147

Closed year to date – 1071 – UP 183

Sold/Closed in January – 902

King County – Condo Market

For sale – 3,082 – UP 99

In escrow – 828- UP 33

Closed year to date – 362 – UP 69

Sold/Closed in January -311

I’ll head over to last week’s post and update the January Sold data and percentage change YOY.

“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.