Does every buyer or seller need an agent? Does every distressed homeowner need an attorney?

In the comment thread to a recent post, Ardell wrote:

You can’t just tell people they should or should not have an attorney the same way that you can’t tell them they should or should not have a real estate agent LOL! Either can be a waste of money if you have the wrong agent or attorney. If the agent is not going to help you value the property you are buying…if the lawyer is not going to advise you regarding release from the deficiency…either is a waste of time if they are just shuffling papers around. Every buyer and seller should have an agent the same as everyone facing default should have an attorney.

This raises an interesting question: Are agents and attorneys comparable in terms of the services they provide? And more to the point: Are they equally important in protecting a person’s interests?

I think not. Now some may quickly accuse me of being a “typical” ego-driven attorney with an overinflated sense of self worth. But rather than attacking me personally, the more discerning reader will respond to the merits of my argument.

Similarly, I suspect there is a lot of common ground between agents and attorneys — more than a reader might realize. For example, everyone agrees that there are poor agents as well as poor attorneys, and hiring either one will either be a waste of money outright or will get you a poor return on your investment (money spent on service when compared to benefits of receiving service). Moreover, there are always exceptions to every generalization, so specific examples are not very useful in addressing general issues. So, for purposes of this post, let’s focus on a “generic” competent agent — i.e. the abstract, non-specific “everyperson” agent — compared to a similar competent attorney.

So why do I think that an attorney is more important? Or, as Ardell framed the issue, why do I think that people should not have an agent when buying or selling a house, but they should have an attorney when facing foreclosure? The analysis begins with recognizing the different skill sets of each professional. Practically speaking, an attorney must have completed both college and law school, a three year graduate degree. The attorney must also have passed the bar exam, which is recognized as quite demanding. In contrast, an agent must have completed a 60 clock-hour course offered at most community colleges and passed the state license examination. Both professionals must undergo continuing education, so presumably once the career is started they grow professionaly at the same rate. But is there really any question that the attorney is better educated (and thus has the prerequisite intelligence and diligence necessary to complete seven years of advanced schooling)? Furthermore, given these vastly disparate educational requirements, can anyone dispute that the practice of law is more complicated and more intellectually demanding than the brokerage of real estate?

Consideration should also be given to the actual work expected of the two professionals. Again, as Ardell framed the issue, an essential task expected of an agent is valuation of the property at issue. A property’s “true” value is unknown until a willing buyer and a willing seller agree on a price, neither being compelled to do so. Until that time, any estimate of a property’s value is just that, an estimate. This estimate is based on many factors, most of which can be obtained and understood by any competent adult — i.e. sales data and current prices for similar homes in similar areas. Everyone will have a different opinion, even between two agents with the same amount of experience. There is simply no way to confirm that any reasonable valuation — from anyone — is “right” or “wrong” until the property sells.

In contrast, when faced with acute (or chronic) financial distress, there are different strategies that may be employed to address the problem. All of these strategies require an understanding of the debtor’s legal rights and obligations. In comparison to valuing a property, it is much more difficult for a person to do the necessary research (federal statutes, state statutes, cases interpreting both) that will allow the person to reach an informed and correct conclusion. Moreover, an error in valuation is likely to be small as there is a range of “right” answers anyway, and if the buyer/seller formulates their own number and then gets that number, the outcome at least in the short term is good. In contrast, there are many different options that may be available to the debtor. The option chosen by the debtor — after researching the issue himself — may be, in fact, a very poor choice in the near and short term.

Finally, I must also note the costs incurred in using the services of either an agent or an attorney. At least in the realm of residential real estate, I would wager a lot of money that agents are actually more expensive than attorneys. In a “typical” transaction, a consumer will pay his agent (including the broker required for the agent’s license) $12,000 (3% of a $400k house). This is a substantial bill for the services provided, particularly in light of the requirements for becoming an agent. In contrast, even if the consumer files for bankruptcy, he is unlikely to incur such a bill with a lawyer. If the debtor is simply consulting the attorney for options, the bill will be much, much less.

In summary: a consumer need not hire an agent in all circumstances. Look at the services you hope to receive and the value of those services in light of the cost incurred, taking into account the licensing requirements of the professional providing those services. By considering the licensing requirements, a consumer addresses the merits of hiring the professional versus performing the work on the consumer’s own behalf. However, a homeowner should always consult a lawyer when faced with default on a mortgage — or when faced with any other legal issue involving hundreds of thousands of dollars of liability. If cost is an issue, then there are free legal services and low cost services available. Regardless, the money will be well spent. The same is not necessarily true of an agent.

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It Never Rains in Seattle

At least it never rains on the Google StreetView car.


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As you virtually walk the neighborhoods of Seattle with StreetView (It’s New! Yesterday!), you’ll see some cloudy days:


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But no rainy days.

When I was growing up, my dad’s favorite description of Seattle came from a “give us a slogan contest” on the radio: Living in Seattle is like being married to a beautiful woman who is always sick.

Thankfully, Google StreetView is only showing us Seattle on her better days. Here is some virtual sight-seeing for ya:

Troll:


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Lenin:


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A disappointingly unfunny Lusty Lady:


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The always-imposing Rainier Cold Storage:


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Metal beasts on the waterfront:


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And finally, the infernal Duck truck (don’t ride the ducks!):


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Interview with Jillayne Schlicke – Part 1: LO's Are You Ready for 2009?

I recently contacted Jillayne to see if she would be open to an “interview” geared to Loan Originators who plan to sticking around beyond the end of this year…of course, she agreed!  😉   Jillayne offers training and clock hour approved courses to LOs and I thought this would be good timing to touch base with her.  This will be a two part series with the next post addressing the SAFE Act (national licensing). My questions to Jillayne are in italic text.

What should Loan Originators be doing right now to prepare for 2009?

Jillayne:  Well, let’s first define LO’s.  In my mind, we’re talking about LO’s who work for non-depository lenders such as mortgage broker LOs and CLA [correspondent lenders, credit union and consumer loan] LOs.  Loan originators who need to work for an FHA lender have all ready made that move.  Those who have not, will.  LOs who work for a lender or broker that is not FHA approved are all ready finding other sources of money.  Some LOs have already positioned themselves nicely but are experiencing a dramatic drop in income.

Many LOs made six figures income during 2006 and 2007 and subsequently have a six figure lifestyle that they are already trying to pare down to match 2008 income levels.  Income levels will remain volatile in 2009.  Existing client bases will not return the same income level as prior years.  LOs must prepare for the recession and start to research what kinds of industries survive and thrive in a down market and begin to reach out to people in those industries today.

Loan modifications have popped up out of nowhere to become the current “get rich quick” scheme marketed to hungry LOs.  Stories are circulating about LOs wo are closing 60 loan mods a month.  This is a possible untapped revenue source for LOs, however, there are some big liability pitfalls to navigate in the form of state laws, federal laws and contract laws.  Loan mod salesmen have been pitching lots of different programs, charging LOs thousands to buy into a “system”, without knowledge of state and federal laws.   LOs must be cautious and do their homework before jumping in head first.  Massive government intervention in foreclosures may make that “system” investment worthless.  There are ways to do loan modifications without putting your license in danger.

What trends are you seeing in the mortgage industry?

Jillayne:  Mortgage lenders, no matter where they work; banker, broker, consumer lender, credit union, ought to be prepared for more regulations at the state and federal level.  The winds of change are blowing in favor of the consumers.  The industry went through this in the 1970s when we saw a wave of consumer protection legislation such as the Real Estate Settlement and Procedures Act (RESPA), Truth-in-Lending, the Equal Credit Opportunity Act, and the Fair Credit Reporting Act.

We have only seen the beginning of what will likely be more consumer protection.   The consumer must be told in a clear way what fees will be charged and how much the loan originator is making on the deal.  The mortgage broker industry mis-used Yield Spread Premium.  Because of this, the government will now tell mortgage brokers exactly how to explain that fee, and the brokerage industry won’t like it.  Watch for RESPA reform to pass and a new Good Faith Estimate.

I expect that underwriting guidelines will continue to go up as banks and conforming paper sold to Fannie and Freddie will raise minimum credit score requirements to 800 and require 20% down.  Everyone else will be pushed to FHA.

On the broker side, we’ll likely see more of the smaller, non-FHA approved brokers joining larger, branch office brokers with FHA-approval already in place.  Brokers who do not want to join the FHA party could take a look at the hard/private money side of the industry, which will likely grow as more people who always will be subprime return to their broker.  Brokers always have been a source of non-traditional money.  Now more than ever, subprime borrowers need that broker.  FHA is not the world’s subprime lender.  It was never intended for that purpose.

If we continue to push subprime towards FHA, then we will soon be looking at an FHA bailout.  Let’s not act surprised when it happens.

We are likely to see government intervention in the foreclosure crisis on a massive scale. FHA Secure and Hope 4 Homeowners will be deemed colossal failures because the underlying lenders simply cannot write down the principal balance on those non-performing loans without sending their own banks teetering into receivership.  I believe we are inching closer each day toward eventual nationalization of banks.

What are your most popular classes that you’re teaching right now?

Jillayne:  The short sale class, which I’ve taught for over ten years now, is very hot.  Other best sellers:  Foreclosure; Losing the American Dream, Current Issues in Lending, FHA Loans, Fiduciary Duties for Mortgage Brokers, and for Real Estate Agents: How to Survive in a Down Market and How to Become an REO Agent.  I’m starting to teach the fundamentals of a loan modification inside the Short Sales/Short Refis class and my class last week loved it so watch for one on loan mods.

On that note, I really recommend that Washington State LO’s make sure they’re signed up for their 2008 clock hour classes, if they have not all ready met their education requirements for licensing this year.  Be sure to check out Jillayne’s new Professional Education page here at RCG and watch for Part 2 of my interview with Jillayne where we discuss national licensing: The SAFE Act.

It's not how I voted, but….

I’m very hopeful that Obama will live up to the expectations.  This was actually my first time voting for a Republican candidate.  This was also the first election that I was proud and felt strongly about voting for a President.  

What President Obama had done is amazing and historic.  I’m not going to go into details about what I think was done right or wrong with the campaigns…it doesn’t matter anymore.

This could be what’s needed to pull America together and I do hope it all happens.

The Crackberrys are coming to Real Estate by a Storm!

Supra Blackberry phonesI’ve been a fan of the Blackberry for years. I LOVE their “push” email technology, and it’s one-hand scroll-wheel functionality. But I had to drop-kick my crackberry for a Palm Treo when Supra came out with the eKey technology in order to access homes for sale with lockboxes. I actually kept both for a while but after I got an iPhone three phones was just too much, even for a geek like me.

Supra only supports a handful of smartphones and most of them are Palm Treos, either Palm OS or Windows Mobile. The reason for this is not because they are lazy or unresponsive to customer requests, even if they are. The real reason is that most devices do not support IRDA technology. That’s the infrared port that communicates with the Supra iBox to unlock or program it. So Blackberrys, iPhones, and a bunch of other popular and cool smartphones were effectively blocked from being used as an eKey. Until now….

Blackberry eKEY-infrared convertorSupra has decided to sell an “infrared-to-bluetooth converter” and offer their Supra eKey services from several Blackberry devices by the end of the year. It’s like a car key fob that you carry on your keychain. According to their press release, Supra will support the Pearl, the Curve, and the 8800 series devices. There will be a couple of different plans offered. The new eData Mobile application will give the listing agent instant notification of showings, even while they are in progress. I’m not sure how this will play out. I’m not excited about getting calls from agents for feedback while I’m still in the house and showing my client. We may end up needing some NWMLS guidelines to keep Realtors from being too aggressive with other agents. (not that there are any pushy agents out there).

So the real question is … (drum roll please) Will Supra support the new Blackberry Storm? This is the closest thing I’ve seen to a true iPhone competitor coming to the market. All the other vendors have been scrambling to come up with a product that can compete with Apple’s evolutionary and wildly popular device. So far, none of them have really even come close, IMO. They may have some of the look and feel down, but the vastly superior software options still puts the iPhone WAY ahead of anyone else. But the one thing almost all iPhone owners agree on is that typing sucks on the iPhone. I can thumb a text message 10 times faster on a Blackberry.

Well, Blackberry may have found a way to solve this dilemma. The new Storm offers an on-screen touch-and-feel keyboard that you have to actually PUSH in a way that gives you a true “keyboard feel”. People tell me you quickly and intuitively learn how this works and your back to speed-thumb-typing in no time.The Engadget Mobile website has a page-by-page copy of the Verizon Sales brochure of the Storm if you want to look it over. I spoke with someone at GE Supra and they would not commit to saying the Supra eKey product would be compatible with the Storm. It uses Verizon’s GSM and Ev-DO networks and not Wi-Fi, which could be a deal killer for some people too.

Blackberry Storm keyboard

At least agents will have a viable alternative to the old and limited Treo. Finally, Change you can believe in! Sounds like the Blackberry’s running for office!

Sunday Night Stats – Days on Market DO Matter

I have to admit that it is hard to think about anything but tomorrow’s election.  It’s an historic occassion, to say the least.  Especially for those of us who grew up in the turbulent 60’s, and have been around from when President Kennedy was killed to present.  I can’t help but feel that tomorrow “is the first day of the rest of our lives” in a profound and meaningful way.

Next Sunday will be the first opportunity to capture a snapshot of October 2008 as to closed transactions.  Last week I reported that October pending sales that will close in November are obviously down in price, and fairly substantially down, from 3rd quarter sales.

This week I’ve been trying to answer the question “Where are prices?”.  Are they back to early 2006 levels?  Are they back to mid-2005 levels?  The answer is both, and days on market is what separates the two.  When comparing apples to apples and studying data within small segments of each market, virtually no sales are selling at peak levels, peak being summer of 2007.  Those that sell in 20 days or less are selling at mid 2006 to early 2006 levels.  Those that remain on market for 40 or more days are selling at mid 2005 levels.  Those that try to sell at 2007 levels, end up at 2005 levels.  If they had started at 2006 price level, they would have sold more quickly and at a higher price.

There’s really no message to anyone in this post.  Just reporting the facts.  Buyers who buy something as soon as it hits the market, will still do that, and rightly so.  Sellers who ask more than the last property sold for will still do that, because they need the market to beat them down.  Most people can’t sell for less than the neighbor by voluntarily electing to do that.  They have to be on market for 100 days or more before they “give in”, which costs them about 5% on price.  Still, that’s human nature for most people.

New construction is more attractive than it has been for a long time, short sales are still the best values, and best homes in the best locations still sell quickly at the highest prices.  No big news there.  Once we get to early 2005 pricings, the wait will be over.  Why?  Because the prices in 2004 and 2003 and 2002 are not substantially different from one another.  Once prices roll back to January 2005 levels, we will be “at bottom” here in the Seattle Area, unless you think prices will get to 1998 levels.

So for all of the people waiting for “bottom”…your wait is about over.  Now you just have to figure out how to finance those “at bottom” prices, and interest rates will be the obstacle vs. fear of overpaying.

Now let’s all focus on the election tomorrow.  It’s an historic event.  Don’t miss it.  Vote and vote early.

Another Bailout Coming for the Banks Disguised as a Bailout for Homeowners

From the WaPo:

Officials with the Treasury and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. are crafting a plan under which the government would guarantee the mortgages of as many as 3 million homeowners now struggling to avoid foreclosure, according to three sources familiar with the discussions.

Under the program being discussed, the lender would agree to reduce borrowers’ monthly payments, for example by lowering the interest rate or principal of a mortgage loan, based on the homeowner’s ability to pay. These reconfigured loans could help homeowners avert foreclosure.

To attract financial institutions to the program, the government would then guarantee to repay the lender for a portion of its loss if the borrower defaulted on the reconfigured loan.

The mortgage guarantee program would vastly expand the role of the Treasury Department in helping homeowners, while at the same time ensuring some return for lenders.

It would cost between $40 billion and $50 billion, sources said.

The program is being discussed as members of Congress are voicing frustrations that the $700 billion rescue program thusfar has been aimed at helping banks, but not homeowners.

While Treasury and FDIC officials have reached an agreement on the principles of the program, the White House is resisting, according to the sources, who declined to be identified because the negotiations are ongoing..

Wait, what? I thought the FHA Secure program was such a grand success, according to HUD.  Yet reports show that the true number of homeowners helped under that program was unfortunately low which I predicted in Aug of 2007. The July bailout bill gave us Hope for Homeowners, which requires voluntary principal balance reductions on the existing loans and gave the homeowner a new FHA-insured loan. Housing Wire reports that so far, H4H has few takers. But not for lack of interested homeowners. Instead, it’s the investors:

The problem, however, may not be lenders, who say they’re more than willing to begin processing the loans. Instead, the problem sits with third-party investors that have thus far proven unwilling to take the minimum 10 percent haircut required to put borrowers into the program, plus an upfront premium payment–losses are actually far greater for investors who participate, given that the 10 percent figure is based on a current appraisal, and not original LTV.

John Sorgenfrei, president of Florida-based Assurance Home Loan, Inc., said he receives calls from eight to 10 borrowers daily about participation in the program. For the time being, he has been forced to make them wait, as no investors so far have bought into the program..

We’re burning through the 700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) money pretty fast.  The 40 to 50 billion tossed out for this new plan seems sadly low.  Who is feeding the politicians the dollar amounts?  This is not nearly enough money. It may keep the banks alive for a few more months but to what end?

Do you think this latest proposal seems more like another bank bailout? It’s hard to say until we see the guidelines. With FHA and H4H, income must be fully documented and homeowners must qualify. Once again, this may shave off a fair number of homeowners who won’t be able to document income needed to qualify.

It might be wiser to just start talking about nationalizing the entire banking system at this point.  I mean, how many bailouts will it take before taxpayers own the banks?

Rising star or…

Another sample of business ethics out the window

According to this Bloomberg story,  Eve Mazzarella, a high school drop-out and former maid from Seattle moved to Las Vegas and started a real estate career in the year 2000.   Evidently, she and her husband are now allegedly charged with fraud.  The story goes on to say that she was highlighted in the National Association of Realtors “30 under 30” list, which names the best young real estate agents in the country.

The NAR “30 under 30” article reminds me of the story of Puget Sound Business Journal and Washington CEO Magazine’s “40 under 40” story on a local young CEO.

From the Bloomberg article:

“The day before, the U.S. Attorney for Nevada had indicted the couple on 6 counts of bank fraud, later revised to 13. Prosecutors say the pair recruited fake — or “straw” — buyers to apply for loans to purchase 227 properties worth $107 million. They told the straw buyers they would pay the mortgages. Then they skimmed thousands of dollars from each of more than 432 transactions, the indictment says, stashing the cash in 80 bank accounts.”

Will the real estate community, Lending Brokers, Real Estate Brokerages or regulating bodies of each State do a better job of getting rid of the people who had a direct role in bringing down the housing market and impacting those who had nothing to do with it?

The Philadelphia Phillies Win the World Series!!!

The curse of William Penn is officially lifted!  If anyone wasn’t sure about that, Joe Blanton’s home run was absolute proof, that Comcast’s putting William Penn up in the sky in June of 2007 was indeed the curse breaker!  No building for him yet, he’s up there on a beam until the building is complete in 2012…but Billy must be happy enough.

For most of Philadelphia’s history, no one was allowed to construct a building taller than the William Penn Statue on top of City Hall.  Mr. Penn looks out toward the Delaware River from the top of City Hall, as I recall, and was visible outside of the window of my office across the street for many years.  In 1987, they built One Liberty Place to be TALLER than Billy Penn.  They tried the excuse that they weren’t “blocking his view”, but apparently Billy was not pleased, as NO sports team in Philly has won since that happened.

So thank you Comcast for not waiting for the building to be finished in 2012 before hoisting Billy Penn up where he belongs…higher than any building in Philly.  Tonight he has thanked you…and so do we.

The Curse of William Penn is LIFTED!

The Curse of William Penn is LIFTED!

The FED drops the Funds Rate to 1.00%

The FOMC, during a scheduled meeting, elected to reduce the Fed Funds rate by 0.5% from 1.5% to 1.00%. Unless you have a HELOC that is floating (attached to the Prime Rate) this does not directly impact your mortgage interest rates. However, it will influence mortgage rates based on how traders react (50 basis points is what was expected). If you’re a long time reader of Rain City Guide, you’ve all ready heard this song and dance.

FOMC Press Release