Inspection = Yay or Nay

thumbs-downAn alternate title for this post might be “The seller doesn’t ‘have to’…anything”.

I am writing two offers today and the one MOST IMPORTANT thing to keep in mind when making an offer on a house is, the seller does not have to do anything during escrow except pack and move out!

In this market, if you have successfully achieved the lowest possible price at time of contract negotiations, there is often NO MORE ROOM for the seller to give at time of inspection negotiation.  This is not always the case, but is clearly more often the case IF you have achieved a hard bargain at time of contract. The better you were at getting lowest possible price in the beginning…the less likely you will get anything at all at time of home inspection “negotiations”.

There is a misconception that the seller has to compensate, or even give a RA, about the negative items in the home inspection report. Not so! You have a Yay or Nay vote, that is true. You can say, “I don’t want this house because of that $50 defect”, in fact you don’t have to give a reason at all. You have the right (in the Seattle area under our standard Home Inspection Contingency, assuming you attached one) to “cancel on inspection”.

BUT there is absolutely nothing in the contract negotiations to compel a seller to fix or compensate the buyer for defects found during the home inspection timeframe. “Timeframe” the key word(s) there. IF you are going to cancel, there is a drop dead date for your having the right to do that. Every contract is different. Most often it is in the first 10 days from when you originally achieved a “signed around” contract. Could be 5 days…could be 7 days…pay attention to the blank as filled in on your Inspection Contingency.

When you make an offer, inspect the home as carefully as you can and make sure your initial offer “compensates you” for clearly obvious negatives. Inspection negotiation is no time for you to start wanting money for something you could easily have seen without the help of a home inspector. To be clear, you CAN do that. But do you want to lose the house because you didn’t take that into consideration at time of offer?

Look at the date on the hot water tank, look at the date on the heater (sometimes harder to find), try to determine the age of the roof. Turn on all the lights, the appliances, flush the toilets. There are many things you can check before you are “in contract”. Often with short sales and bank-owned property, you are pretty much buying “as is”. Even with a regular sale, often the seller simply has no money to give in a 2nd round of negotiations.

Understand that your contractual rights are “yay or nay”, and NOT that the seller “has to”…anything.

Where is the King County Housing Market Going?

The graph below shows us how easy it was to spot that the market was going sideways in 2006 and 2007. How credible was it that almost double the amount of people could afford a house for more than $400,000 in 2006 and 2007, than in 2005 and the years prior?

kc400 

I say we can expect the 3,921 homes sold for over $400,000 to increase to about 6,500. That will be the sign that the market has “recovered”. Recovery will be about volume recovering…not prices. If you remove 2006 and 2007 numbers from the chart below, and replace 3,921 with 6,500, that would be a natural progression.

These stats are from 1/1 to 8/15 for the years 2001 through 2009. Earlier today I was looking at the change in the number of homes sold for less than $400,000. In 2001 that segment represented 82% of homes sold. Affordability reduced by 50% by 2007 when only 40% of homes sold, sold for less than $400,000. We are now back up to 50% with more homes sold for $400,000 or less this year than last year.

So where is the market going? If 11,500 people could afford homes priced at $400,000 or less back in 2001 and 2002, it’s safe to assume at least that many people can afford to buy them now.

So recovery will look like 6,500 selling for more than $400,000 and 13,500 or so selling for under $400,000. Again, these numbers are for the period 1/1 to 8/15 to coincide with the numbers we have for the current year. These numbers also tell us that the housing credit went a long way toward bolstering the lower end of the market. Even though volume of sales is down from 10,458 last year to 8.686 this year, homes sold for less than $400,000 increased from 4,292 to 4,765.

I don’t think prices will go up and I don’t think the recovery will happen in terms of home prices. Recovery will be volume based, with over $400,000 improving by 60% to 65% and the under $400,000 market improving by nearly 3X what it is right now.

Required Disclosure: Stats are not posted, compiled or verified by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

Retweeting RCG just got easier

backtweetsI was at an tweetup last night with some great guys who run social media strategies for some pretty hefty newspapers and one of the tools they recommended I look into was BackTweets WP plugin

I like to think of myself as ahead of the social media curve, but I hadn’t played around with the BackTweets much, but after just a few hours of use, I can tell I’m definitely going to be able to enjoy how easy it makes following twitter conversations around websites… and in the case of RCG, around RCG posts.

To try it out the new tool, you only need to click on the button that says “retweet” that’s at the top-left of every RCG blog post (just under the title!).

The Fed’s new GFE Helping to Insure Consumers Get ‘It’?

[Editor’s Note: I’m excited to publish this guest post from Adam Stein on changing role of good faith estimates. He’s a long-time local mortgage professional with Cascade Pacific Mortgage. ]

ftc screengrabThe FTC study reported on the proposed new Good Faith Estimates early on in 2005. Armed with a very thorough and unbiased study the FTC went on record, early and often, and clearly stated the FTC’s position on (then) HUD’s proposed revised Good Faith Estimate:’ DON’T DO IT!’ It seems the FTC’s findings clearly showed that consumers failed to be able to choose what loan was in their best interest when comparing rates and fees. [here’s the FTC’s Facts for Consumers: Looking for the Best Mortgage: Shop, Compare, Negotiate] So much was the confusion caused by the new Good Faith Estimate that over sixty percent of the consumers could not identify the best loan for them when comparing Good Faith Estimates generated by mortgage brokers and mortgage bankers. HUD, not to be outdone, quickly came to their own rescue with their own ‘not-so-unbiased’ study. HUD, supporting their own, quickly produced a study stating that the consumer really does understand the new disclosure (Really?).

And so the battle over RESPA reform has been waged for the better part of the last ten years. At one point the Secretary of HUD attempted to ‘slip RESPA reform under the mat’ by submitting the proposed rule just hours before Congress went on recess. Those who would have been impacted by the rule change clearly and accurately viewed this effort as ‘under handed’ as much of the required ‘commentary period’ passed by without any representative government in session to discuss the proposed RESPA reform. That effort failed in the end. The banking special interests, however, have finally figured out how to get a Good Faith Estimate through the rule making process under the guise of ‘what you can’t buy in an administration you’ll just have to do yourself’. Enter the Federal Reserve Board.

While the FRB sounds like a branch of the Federal Government it really isn’t. The Federal Reserve is a codified, private sector, coalition of the nation’s largest banks and finance companies who collaborate and advise government on key financial issues. The Federal Reserve Board also is empowered to regulate the Truth-in-Lending Act (TILA) and promulgate rules as required. Is it any wonder that the new Good Faith Estimate, vilified by the FTC for creating consumer confusion, creates a bias towards Good Faith Estimates that are generated by banks over those prepared by mortgage brokers?

My concerns are twofold: if the consumer can’t properly identify the best loan they will pay more; if mortgage brokers appear less competitive due to the disclosure of indirect compensation the mortgage broker channel will be reduced if not eliminated.

Mortgage brokers were initially the scapegoats of the ‘mortgage meltdown’. More recently, however, the broader aspects of derivatives and the role played by Wall Street and the nation’s largest investment banks have come to light. I find it ironic that now, after the creators of toxic assets have been exposed, that the FRB will promulgate rules that make their disclosures deceivingly more appealing to consumers. In the end the rule will hasten the consolidation that is already occurring in this battered real estate economy. There will be fewer choices for the consumer to choose from, moreover; when the consumers do choose their mortgage over sixty percent will choose higher rates and fees thanks to the new disclosures. Way to go FRB – You have successfully reduced, if not eliminated, competition in the mortgage marketplace and virtually guaranteed the mortgage shopping consumer will get it ‘in the end’.

Geek’s Guide to Seattle and More…

seattle geek guideI’ve been having a lot of fun playing on RCG’s Facebook page lately… Some of the stories I’ve been linking out to include:

If you have an event or a seattle-related post you’d like to see featured, let me know!

Sunday Night Stats – Seattle Area Home Prices

Earlier tonight I calculated some current results comparing the Spring selling Seasons of 2005 through 2009.  The results are fairly redundant and not much changed from my bottom call back in February. I did some detailed stats for Woodinville and Greenlake-Fremont 98103, and there are not many changes or surprises. My call of 20% under peak pricing unless it is a short sale or bank-owned property, is continuing to hold, and I expect that to stay the same for at least a couple of years.

In 98103 one surprise was as to volume sold between single family homes and townhomes. With the decline in single family home prices, the volume of those sold did not decline from last year, in fact it increased slightly at the expense of townhome sales. (Caption on the graph should be 98103 Median Sold Price) and that excludes the townhomes. Towhomes are running at $338,000 vs. $429,475 for the same period last year.

I would expect prices to fall at some point doing the 4th quarter, as usual, and then next year’s Spring Bounce period to run at about the current levels.

98103

(required disclosure by NWMLS: Stats are not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service)

My daughter’s shoot for Smashbox Makeup

I’ll be heading down to see my three girls and two grandaughters in L.A. on Tuesday. I thought you might like to see Andrea’s recent pics from her photoshoot.  Maybe this time I will actually get over to see her doing tattoo art over in Venice Beach. She moved over to the Boardwalk store, so it should be a fun place to hang out in.

Hey Dustin! Weren’t we supposed to get matching tattoos?

andrea pinup

andrea makeup

andrea ink

Hard to tag this post…I chose the category “diversions” 🙂

An Introduction to M Realty and HomeQuest

Hey Folks,

Just want to write this post and introduce ourselves to you – the Rain City Guide community. M Realty is an up and coming brokerage with strong roots in Portland Oregon. The brokerage was created by Garron Selliken on the back of our real estate software: HomeQuest. HomeQuest has been around for over 5 years, serving 6 MLS’s including Seattle -NWMLS.  The property search on this site is a new version of the HomeQuest search which will evolve over the coming weeks.  HomeQuest is spearheaded by Chris Lynch, a name familiar to most HomeQuest users in Seattle. We have been active members of our technology community here in Portland for several years, attending and sponsoring local events as well as hosting our own.

Hopefully we can become involved and get to meet all of you at upcoming seattle events like REbarCamp, Wordcamp and beyond. Our team is made up of the following people:

Garron Selliken, Founder – @garrons
Chris Lynch, Co Founder, Ops manager – @chrisinptown
Haley Baroody, Project Manager – @baroody
Simon, Site Manager / SEO – @simonHQ
Tyler, HQ Support – @whitesidet
Toby, Development Team Leader.
And a host of other contributors.

Feel free to add us on twitter or facebook, We’d love to get to know you more!

Some of the things you may have noticed on the new look RCG:  Obviously the biggest change was the addition of an IDX Property search. Although most of you wont ever use this aspect of the site, both Dustin and Garron believed it to be an important feature to have as over 60% of the visitors to the site are actually consumers, we also thought it best to separate “Industry talk” from the information consumers are searching for. We achieved this with the new top level category system, allowing easier navigation for all types of visitors without any dramatic changes to sites overall feel.

We also tried to add some new functionality to make it easier to see where the hot conversations are happening, with the introduction of a comment count per post, displayed under the post titles.

We are a long, long way from finished with the new rain city guide. What makes this site an incredible resource is the immense feedback and interaction among all the contributors  and we hope that never changes! Give us the good, the bad or the just plain ugly, we want to know exactly how we can improve this site for everyone who uses it.  We really appreciate the comments and feedback so far and hope you are as excited as we are to be working on making Rain City Guide the ultimate Seattle web resource for everything related to real estate and the local community.

@simonHQ

PS

Here are a few of the other sites we are currently working on:

portlandoctopus.com – a site about the things we do in our local neighborhoods in portland
mportlandhomes.com – corporate site for M Realty
homequestgroup.com (and realestate-idx.com)  – sites about the software we make

Distressed property rental income: Who’s money is it when a home goes into default?

This is both a legal question and an ethical issue.

I’ve bumped into this, not in the workplace, but out looking at property :   A home that is in process of either a short sale or heading to foreclosure has tenants.  It is not that a homeowner does not have a right to rent a home or even part of their home, but when a homeowner is involved in a short sale, is in arrears (default), most lenders require substantial paperwork from the owner justifying their hardship. My guess is that the rental income could be kept under the radar.   Many homes in default are the result of job loss or other hardship due to medical reasons or other life issues.   In some cases though, defaults are a result of excessive equity withdrawal from serial refinancing.

Homeowners in a short sale are typically not allowed any proceeds from the sale as a condition of approval.  But, if the homeowner is receiving rental income from the property, should that money be forfeited to the lender to help cure the debt?

I have not been able to find the languange in a standard Washington State Deed of Trust form, but I thought I read somewhere that rents are collectible by the lender to help cure the debt when a default has occurred.   I could be very mistaken.

Starter homes you can STAY in

First Time Buyer Big Red Flag = “I plan to sell in 2 to 3 years”.

Many people are out buying homes right now because of the $8,000 1st time homebuyer credit. Unless the credit is extended, these people have until mid to late October to find a a house and get into escrow, so they can close by the deadline of November 30, 2009 (“before December 1”). My best guess is there will be a 2010 homebuyer credit, but it will be a new one with different parameters, and not merely an extension of the current one. But all we know for sure at the moment, is the homebuyer credit we have at present will expire, if you don’t close by the end of November.

The credit is not the ONLY reason people are out buying homes. The fact that you can more readily buy a “starter home” for $350,000 or less in many areas, is likely a larger part of the reason people are buying. The linked post will show you that in the current market you are almost EIGHT times more likely to find a starter home for $350,000 or less in Kirkland, Bellevue or Redmond, than you were in 2007. In Bothell and Kenmore, homes selling for $350,000 or less represent more than a full third of all homes being sold.

This market is a blessing in disguise…lots of sadness for sellers, but an opportunity for some young families to get into a starter home for less.

My caution is this:  I don’t want to hear “I will probably sell it in….”. In the data sample I used in the link above I did not include any homes with less than three bedrooms or less than 1.5 bathrooms. I’m not saying you can’t or shouldn’t move in less than 5 years, I am saying don’t buy a house that you can’t stay in for more than 5 years. When choosing a home, you should have the option to stay in the home, as many people who are suffering today and must sell their homes, are doing so because they have grown out of them.

The moment I hear someone say “this will hold us for a couple of years”, that is a big red flag! The home below was purchased by one of my clients who already had a small baby. It was purchased in a great school district in Kirkland for about $310,000 and it is not likely they will “grow out of it”…well, maybe ever.

Moral of the story: If you can’t see yourself living in the house five years from now…don’t buy it.

starter home