Let’s take out the Crystal Ball and a mountain of stats and make some predictions for 2008.

Here are my predictions for residential (not condo) sales in 2008:

16,500 will sell by year end.

3,583 sold in the first quarter (fact not prediction)

4,455 will sell in the second quarter

4,950 will sell in the third quarter

3,927 will sell in the last quarter

Sales of residential property peaked as to volume in the 1st quarter of 2006. We have been in a “volume down – prices up” cycle from the 1st quarter of 2006 through most of the 3rd quarter of 2007.

A little history regarding volume:

2001 – 22,425, 2002 – 23,921, 2003 – 28,804, 2004 – 31,091, 2005 – 32,821, 2006 – 27,816, 2007 – 23,375, 2008 prediction 16,500.

Volume started dropping in the 1st quarter of 2006, but the condo market picked up that drop to some extent until the 3rd quarter of 2007. So prices continued up as volume declined.

A little history regarding prices:

2001 – $252,000 to $269,000, 2002 – $269,000 to $277,000, 2003 – $277,000 to $300,000, 2004 – $300,000 to $328,000, 2005 – 328,000 to $389,000, 2006 – $389,000 to $439,000

last quarter of 2006 – $439,000
first quarter of 2007 – $445,000
second quarter of 2007 – $470,000
third quarter of 2007 – $469,000
fourth quarter of 2007 – $439,000
first quarter of 2008 – $435,000 (same as 3rd quarter of 2006)

Prices continued up through the 2nd quarter of 2007, continued up in the first part of the 3rd quarter and headed down in the tail end of the 3rd quarter ending at pretty flat.

My price predictions are:

$429,000 for the 2nd quarter of 2008
$400,000 for the 4th quarter of 2008

You guess the 3rd quarter.

So volume peaked in the first quarter of 2006 and prices peaked during the third quarter of 2007.

Will be interesting to see where actual compares to my predictions as we head into the 2nd quarter of 2008. If the darned sun doesn’t come out and stay out, 2nd quarter may fall short.

I think if we hit around 16,500 by year end, we will have bottomed out as to volume, but not price. I think prices will be down 15% from July of 2007 to end of December 2008. Volume will level out and prices will continue to fall.

I predict that agents will think I’ve been too tough on these market predictions and the general public will think I’ve been too soft and 5% will say I caused it all to happen 🙂

“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.