There’s some griping around the web about my separating North King County from South King County.
Sold YTD the median home price in North King County is $439,725 vs. $333,325 in South King County.
Sold YTD the median price per square foot in North King County is $217 vs. $169 in South King County.
I think a hundered grand difference, is a big deal. I think a 25% variance is a huge deal. Feel free to disagree.
Let me ask you this. You come to me saying you would like to buy a house for about $350,000 near Microsoft. I might be able to convince you to go to Green Lake or some point just to the other side (Seattle side) of the 520 bridge. Maybe Kenmore or Bothell or Juanita/Finn Hill…possibly Duvall. Maybe buy a townhome vs. a single family home. But would you agree to Federal Way or Auburn? I don’t think so. Pretending that what happens in Redmond influences what happens in Auburn, or vice versa, is of no value to anyone.
Markets are moved by the decision makers, and the decision makers in this market are the buyers of homes. Only home buyers can reset the data. So reporting in the manner that buyers actually make decisions to buy, is important.
If there ever comes a day when the majority of people who want to buy a home give equal consideration to Auburn vs. Redmond, well then they will become one market. Until then, separation is of more value than lumping everything together by County.
You should care about what happens in the market priced over your price range, as a cram down on those home prices will in lagging fashion affect the values in your price range. Knowing how many homes are sold there, and the buildup of unsold inventory there, will give you some predictive data with regard to the impact it will have on YOU. Will 100 houses not selling for over $1.2 million affect your purchase of a home for $350,000? Not likely. Will 2,000 homes not selling for between $600,00 and $800,000 affect the price of your purchase at $550,000? Very likely, yes.
Very, VERY important right now is the affect lower single family home price is having on the townhome and condo markets. Most sellers look at like kind product, and rarely condsider “If someone can buy a single family home for this price, why would they buy my townhome for the same price?” And that is exceptionally important right now for most condo and townhome owners.
I understand that it’s easier to understand data when everything is lumped together, and factoring in the specifics that affect YOUR decision is tedious and a lot of work. But for years people have said that your home purchase decision is one of the most important decisions you make in a lifetime. If you believe that is true, then shouldn’t it be hard vs. easy?
North King County – Additional data (that is not posted, compiled or verified by NWMLS) I hate that required disclosure. Would make more sense to credit them if it WAS regurgitated from their published data. Having to say it isn’t, every time I post data, is annoying but a rule of membership. And it must be in bold lettering. Apologies for the redundancy of having to say that in every data post.
Property sold, including homes, townhomes and condos in North King County for more than $600,000 represents only 19% of all property sold YTD.
Property FOR SALE and NOT sold in that same area as of today shows us that while only 19% of property sold is selling for over $600,000, 40% of what is for sale is priced at over $600,000.
That tells you that under $600,000 is 1,555 divided by 4 or 388 sales a month and 3,604 divided by 388 equals a 9 month supply of inventory in North King county priced at $600,000 or less.
Over $600,000 is 368 divided by 4 month YTD is 92 sales per month. 2,443 for sale divided by 92 sales per month = a 26 month supply of inventory, which is almost 3X worse than the under $600,000 property.
Let’s separate the condos from the single family homes in the under $600,000 market. While the overall absorption rate is a 9 month supply:
for condos under $600,000 the absorption rate is 13 months
for single family the absorption rate is 7 months
For “marketwatchers”, lumping everything together is easier. But if you are looking at real estate blogs for more than party chit chat, if you are trying to get a lot of info before buying or selling real estate, Countywide stats do not tell you the story you need to hear.
If $100,000+ variance in median home price between North King County and South King County means nothing to you, then you are not likely planning to buy or sell real estate.