About ARDELL

ARDELL is a Managing Broker with Better Properties METRO King County. ARDELL was named one of the Most Influential Real Estate Bloggers in the U.S. by Inman News and has 34+ years experience in Real Estate up and down both Coasts, representing both buyers and sellers of homes in Seattle and on The Eastside. email: ardelld@gmail.com cell: 206-910-1000

How to evaluate "the comps" and price per square foot

tri levelWith more and more home buyers and sellers participating in the home buying & selling process to a greater degree than ever before, we can’t write enough posts that provide the basic infomation and skills that help them evaluate home prices. The other day I talked about the popularity and pricing of homes in differering age segments.

Today I’m going to talk about “the comps” and median price per square foot of homes of differing styles. For this purpose I’m going to use Bellevue, Kirkland and Redmond vs. Seattle or all of King County. We will be looking at the differences in price per square foot for ramblers, split-entry homes and ramblers with basements, tri-levels and two story homes both with and without basements. I’m using all sales from 1/01/07 to date, to insure enough volume of sales in each category, to have a relevant median price per square foot. I eliminated lots in excess of 13,000 sf so the “extra” land doesn’t skew the data.

The photo above is a tri-level. When you’ve been in the business for many years, you can pretty much know the floor plan of a house without ever needing to go inside. When a house looks like one story from one side and two story from the other, viewing it from left to right while standing only in front of it, that is a tri-level. You will enter on the main level which has the living room, dining room and kitchen. After you are inside the main floor (and not when you immediately enter the front door) you will go up 4 or 5 steps to the bedrooms or down 4 or five steps to the family room that exits to the yard, usually via sliding glass doors. The garage entrance is on the other side of the family room and no portion of the tri-level is underground. That is your basic tri-level and you can tell that without having to go inside.

bi levelThe home pictured to the left is a split-entry home. For those reading this from outside of the Seattle Area, you may call a “split-entry” a 2-level, a bi-level, a raised rambler or a raised rancher. All are referencing the same style of home called different things in different areas. Basically it is a rambler with a basement, most often but not always a daylight basement. The underground side of the basement is raised high enough for there to be windows.

The front steps take you up to the front door that looks like it is centered in the middle of the structure. Once you walk in the front door you have to go immediately up or down from the foyer to access any of the rooms. It is a rambler with a basement that is not fully underground at any point. A rambler with a daylight basement is basically the same home, but the street side of the basement is fully underground, so you enter at street level onto the main floor.

Now let’s do some stats on the differing home styles. PPSF = Price Per Square Foot.

Rambler/One Story Home – median price $491,500 – median sf 1,470 – median PPSF $334 DOM 26

Rambler w. basement – median price $699,000 – median sf 2,760 – median PPSF – $253 DOM 30

Some people think that the smaller square footage is creating the higher price per square foot. What is really happening is that the main level is valuing at $334 per square foot (same as the rambler) and the basement level is valuing at $172.50 per square foot. For instance the 2,760 sf divided by two, equals 1,380 on the main level times $334 equals $460,920 for the main floor “rambler portion”. The difference, $699,000 minus $460,920 = $238,080 for the basement divided by 1,380 sf equals $172.50 PPSF for the basement. That averages $253 PPSF for the whole house as to finished square foot and does not include the garage or unfinished/not heated basement area. It’s a bit simplified, but hopefully you get the gist of that. Same is true for the split entry.

Split-entry home – median price $510,000 – median sf 2,150 – median PPSF $237 DOM 30

Again, the main level of 1,075 sf of the split-entry is valuing the same as the rambler at $334 or $359,050. $510,000 minus $359,950 = $150,050 divided by 1,075 basement sf = $139.58 for the basement sf and that averages to $237 PPSF for the whole house. In reality above ground square footage values higher than underground square footage, so if the basement is all underground on either the rambler or split entry, the basement square footage would value for less than a “daylight” basement and the fully above ground portion would value for more than the partially above ground portion. So don’t pay the same for a fully underground basement as you would a daylight basement.

Two Story Home – median price $750,000 – median sf 2,760 – median PPSF $271 – DOM 39

Two Story Home w/basement – median price $1,097,000 – median sf 3,920, median PPSF $280 – DOM 59

The two story home with a basement does not get “diluted” in value by the basement because it is basically the top choice of available homes, there are fewer of them and almost half of them have a lake view. The builders will put the most house, 2 story plus a basement, on the priciest lots with views. So there are a lot of factors that create what looks like full value for the basement on these 2 story homes, when in reality it is an external “plus feature” doing that. Only 4.7% of splits and 1 story ramblers have a lake view, 11.4% of 2 story homes without a basement have a lake view and 42.8% of 2 story homes with a basement have a lake view. 31.8% of the big ramblers with basements have a lake view, so adjust for that as well.

The longer days on market has more to do with higher total price of home, than home style.

The tri-level pictured at the top is only valued at $268 per square foot, even though all of the living square footage is above ground. There are fewer of them, but that does not make them more desirable and a higher PPSF, because when you chop up 2,000 sf into three levels, no level seems large enough. When you put the family room on the main floor next to the kitchen it values higher on the main level, than when you put it down on the basement level. If you can see into the family room on the lower level from the kitchen, it values higher than if you can’t.

It’s really common sense when you think about it that way. With more and more people using price per square foot as an indicator of value, I hope this post gives you a little more info to help you to refine your DIY valuation process.

Have a great day!

Older sells faster and for more

It may surprise you to know that older and even oldest sells faster, and for more money on a price per square foot basis. In the last six months the median days on market for homes sold in King County was 50 days and the median price per square foot was $219. But you may be surprised that older sells faster and for more money per square foot.

Built prior to 1930 sold with median days on market of 33 and a price per square foot of $251

Built from 1931 to 1950 sold with median days on market of 40 days and a price per square foot of $244

Built from 1951 to 1969 sold with median days on market of 49 days and a price per square foot of $228

Built from 1970 to 1989 sold with median days on market of 56 and a price per square foot of $212

Built from 1990 to 2005 sold with median days on market of 63 and a price per square foot of 210

Built from 2006 to present sold with median days on market of 52 days and a price per square foot of $207

Surprised? Don’t be. It’s the old “Location, Location, Location!”

Every time someone built a house, going back to Seattle’s First Hill, by and large they chose the very best location to build on. Chances are if you were to go out right now and find the absolute best place to build a house, there will already be one built there.

Often people will assume newer is better and new is best. Not so. Most often the place where a builder can put up more than one house and as many as 50, the location is inferior…and consequently available.

If you ever doubted the mantra “Location, Location, Location!” then look at the proof. Older sells faster and for more money on a price per square foot basis because people choose location over house…almost always, and rightly so. And most often best location equals oldest house.

Sunday Night Stats – King County

Of course the 1st quarter stats are so very important, and I would very much like to get to the business of reporting these statistics on a County basis as well as for individual areas. But I don’t want to overstate the negative by reporting them in detail before all, or at least most, of the sales have been recorded. 4 business days does not appear to be enough time since as of tonight, # of sales for the quarter are down 40%. Let’s give that another week before comparing the 1st quarter YOY.

Suffice it to say volume continues to be down significantly compared with last year. Median sold price of homes is very close to the asking price of those homes at time of sale and sold prices appear to be down only 2% for Residential and not at all for condos compared with the 1st quarter of 2007. Given the significant decrease in volume, prices holding fairly steady continues to surprise us.

King County Residential Sales

Active/For Sale – 10,180- UP 116 -Median Price approx. $530,000

In Escrow – 2,574 – DOWN 90 – median price $449,950 – UP $2,225

Closed YTD – 3,719- UP 446 – median price $435,000 – no change

The median asking price of Residential Propertes that have sold is $440,000, so they are selling at 99% of asking price.

King Conty Condo Sales

Active/For Sale – 3,590 – UP 72 – median price $324,950 – no change

In Escrow – 846 – DOWN 17 – median price $299,995 – UP 95 (asking prices)

Closed YTD – 1,234 – UP 137 – median price $289,950 – UP $4,950

The median asking price of the condos that have sold is $293,675 so they are selling at 98.7% of asking price.

Stats not compiled or published by NWMLS. (Required disclosure) 

In Tribute to Charlton Heston

Ben HurI remember the night my whole family went to see Charlton Heston in Ben Hur at the drive-in theater. I have often wondered why this memory has clung to me given I was barely 4 years old at the time. I often can’t remember a movie I saw last week. Why does Charlton Heston and Ben Hur remain as one of my earliest childhood memories?

Today as we remember the life and times of an actor most of us have known our entire lives, I would like to take a moment to bow my head in tribute to Charlton Heston. It just dawned on me why this memory is so important to me. We loaded up the car with our own home made snacks, Mom and Dad, five children at the time. There would later be 7 children, but no more trips to the drive-in theater.

Shortly after our family saw Ben Hur, my sister was stricken with spinal menengitis. She was paralyzed for awhile, and my mother’s life became one of constantly caring for Mindy, which she does to this day. Our family would never be the same as that night. Perhaps that is why I remember the scene shown. Charlton Heston in the galley working up a sweat vs. some of his more magnificent achievements in the movie.

I think it is time for me to rent Ben Hur and go back to that time and remember Charlton Heston, Ben Hur and my family. Bow my head and say “thanks for the memories” to a man whom I have known most of my life, though he knew me not. Had he not starred in one of the greatest movies of all time back in 1959, my family might not have loaded up that beat up chevy station wagon, and had our first and last trip as a family out for some fun.

Charlton Heston: October 4, 1924 to April 5, 2008

Don't Sign That Listing Contract!

The contract that an owner signs to put their home on the market is much simpler than the scads of paperwork that come around later when there is an offer on your home.

Here in the Seattle Area, you want to pay close attention to one tiny little portion of the contract before you sign it. It’s very simple to clarify for you, your agent, the buyer and the buyer’s agent, exactly what the commission arrangement is.

Here’s how VERY easy it is. On the main agreement, one page, there is a line of about one inch in length. Let’s say you are agreeing to pay your listing agent 2% and offer 3% in the mls to the Buyer’s Agent. Instead of writing in 5% on that line, just write in what it actually is “2% + 3% to the buyer’s agent”. Pretty simple. Takes about 20 seconds.

That extra 20 seconds will make it clear to you, your agent, the buyer and the buyer’s agent, that the listing agent is NOT to get that +3% in the event there is no buyer’s agent. If the listing agent is agreeing to charge 2% to represent the seller, then there’s no reason why that amount should increase to 5% if at the end of the day they only represent the seller.

There’s plenty of time when the buyer is actually “at the door “to decide who will get that +3% if the buyer has no agent. Maybe the agent should get some of it…maybe the buyer should get all of it…maybe the seller and the buyer will split it 50/50, maybe the buyer and the seller and the agent will split it into three pieces. Lots of options depending on the circumstances at hand at time of offer and acceptance.

But DO NOT write the commission % in as a TOTAL of both your agent’s fee and the unknown, absent buyer agent’s fee. Just write in 2% to XYX listing company and 3% to the company who is REPRESENTING the buyer. This way, if no one is representing the buyer, the extra 3% doesn’t become a windfall profit, without your say so.

Date My House – Saturday on TLC

date my house 1Yesterday I had the opportunity to interview Bob Guiney and Nadia Geller about the upcoming premier of “Date My House” airing this Saturday, April 5th at 8:30 p.m. on TLC.

Bachelor BobSome of you may remember Bob as “Bachelor Bob” who after not getting a rose from Trista on The Bachelorette, went on to star in the 4th episode of the 1st season of The Bachelor. I expect “Date My House” to be a fun watch.

I’m a little disappointed that the thrust of the show seems to come from the standpoint of helping poor, Desperate Sellers get someone to buy their house. Seems this was a great opportunity for the focus to turn more on buyers of homes being able to check out their future home more thoroughly. During the hot real estate market, too many people bought homes so quickly that they really didn’t have a chance to get to know the home they were buying. As consequence, we are starting to see some lawsuits popping up about the REALTOR Owner/Seller’s lack of disclosure about the Obscenity Screaming; Potato Throwing Neighbors, and buyer remorse suits blaming their agents for having paid too much for their home.

Instead the show appears to be built around a homeowner being so desperate to sell, that they are inviting people in for a longer “first date” to get to know the house better and “fall in love” with it. Did the buyers get to spend the night? Bob and I had a chuckle over the chances of the 12 buyers getting to sleep over by end of season filming being about the same as the odds of a guy getting to sleep over on a first date. A few did…but most didn’t.

As a buyer, would you appreciate an owner inviting you to hang out at their home for a long period of time? Would you appreciate the opportunity to have a party there for your friends to get their opinion? Have a sleepover? Spend a week maybe? Or would you view that as an act of desperation and say, I don’t want to buy a house where the owner is that desperate. Does a car salesman offer you a test drive in the hope you won’t want to get out from behind the wheel and back into your beat up Chevy? Would you be afraid to spend the night at a home for sale for fear that going back home afterward would be such a let down, that you would be tempted to buy the house?

Maybe you want to see the show first. But let us know. Do you see dating a house as a viable option for buyers and sellers in the future?

There's No Fool Like An April Fool

If your home has been on market for more than 100 days, it may be a good day to take a hard look at why that may be. Being wrong from April 1st until June 30 is a whole lot worse than being wrong from January 1st through the end of March.

1) Write down the 5 best things about your house and the 5 worst things about your house. If you can think of 20 things that are good about your house and can’t come up with 5 things that are bad about your house, you likely are in the wrong mental space to sell your home. In my experience, owners who can’t get themselves to say one bad thing about their house, out loud, take a much longer time to sell their home.

2) If you are priced at anything 09 or 59 change that to 00 or 50 right now. $259,000? Make it $250,000. $309,000? Make it $300,000. $459,000? Make it $450,000. Someone who didn’t pick your house to go and see in the $450,000 to $500,000 category, may have picked it if it were in the $400,000 to $450,000 category. Don’t miss the boat by being in the wrong price tier.

3) Remove all words from your public remarks section that are negative. Don’t be unique or unusual. Don’t be cute or cozy. Don’t tell them the chandelier does not stay.

4) If you have had no showings in the last 20 days, stop waiting for “just the right person”. No showings equals wrong price.

5) If you have had 30 people come to see your house and no offers, your price and mls presentation are probably right and what is wrong is at your house after they get there. Smell? Smell is a big one, especially if you have pets. Dark? Turn the lights on…Yes, ALL of them. Did they say “you have a lovely home” as they were leaving? That usually means your home is too personalized and they visited you. They couldn’t picture anyone there but you. Remove the personal photos and your “treasures”. Give them a blanker canvass to picture themselves in.

If you have been on market for 100 days, don’t just say “Oh goodie! It’s April 1. NOW someone will buy my house because it’s Springtime. Change something…today.

Buyer Agency – Don't pay someone to "open a door"!!!

Don  t pay for door openersYesteday I received an emailed flyer with this subject line:

“PRICE REDUCED 450K MUST SELL”

While that was a 26% price reduction, looks like someone had bought it for the higher price but that sale was cancelled and the property is back on market at 26% less. What can you say besides thank God that sale didn’t go through?

The day before yesterday, on Saturday, I was showing 6 properties. Virtually all of the properties I chose to show were overpriced by $100,000 to $150,000. 4 of 6 were also $100,000 or more higher than my buyer client’s price range. But I showed them because I am pretty sure most if not all of them will sell for less than my buyer client’s cap price.

Just 7 or so houses from the first property we looked at there is a house priced at twice as much that has been reduced by $350,000 since the first of the year, and another nearby just reduced by $150,000.

Technically speaking there are 75 properties on market in my client’s price range in the area where he wants to live. Only 6 properties were worth showing, and 4 of those were priced over the price range, but believed by me to be in his price range as to what it will sell for and what it is consequently “worth” vs. what the sellers are asking. Two were for sure…too were iffy.

Client’s often ask if what a Buyer’s Agent does is “negotiate”. NO! It does you no good to get $100,000 off of a property that is going to sell at $400,000 less. In that same price range from my Saturday and Sunday experiences, all homes sold in the last six months sold at 98.9% of ASKING price. Relying on a buyer’s agent is NOT about getting a house at 98.9% of asking price, or even at 90% of asking price. It’s about knowing that 73 of the 75 properties on market are overpriced and by how much.

Do NOT pay anyone 3% of the sales price to open the door. If all you need is someone to open the door, hire an agent with a license and a keybox and duct tape on their mouth and pay them by the hour, and do not listen to their advices as to “how to negotiate a great deal”.

If an agent can’t tell you what the house is worth, but instead promises to be “a great negotiator”…run away as fast as you can.

Seattle Real Estate – Sunday Night Stats

real estate market is flatlining

Before I get to tonight’s stats, let’s talk a little bit about some myths out there. Many are saying that the volume of sales is down by 30% this year because the low end can’t finance, as if only the lowest of price ranges is reacting to the mortgage markets. Not so. In fact the results are pretty startling across the board in that they are virtually identical in every price range!

Number of sales is down 30% equally in every price segment.

In Jan & Feb of 2007 when there were 4,226 properties sold, 46% of them were priced between $200,000 and $400,000

In Jan & Feb of 2008 the number of sales dropped from 4,226 to 2,919, but still 46% of them were priced between $200,000 and $400,000.

Virtually the same for all price segments. $400,000 to $600,000 represents 28.5% of sales in both years. To see all price segments and compare the percentages to 2005 and 2006 and to see all of the underlying data too boring to post on RCG 🙂 go here.

Up to this point more people were buying at higher prices each year. This “flatlining” of percentage of purchases in each price category is another way of saying that prices are flat.

When will we know that prices are down? When more people can and do buy more houses at lower prices and those percentages start increasing on the low side and decreasing on the high side, you will know that prices have been affected by more than just a little. Conversely if these percentages stay the same or start moving up again, then volume is down and prices are not affected. Personally I don’t see how volume can continue to reduce by 30% YOY without that affecting prices more than it has to date.

I will be waiting a week or so before reporting for the full first quarter in a like comparison. It takes a good week or even two weeks for agents to post their March month end sales. But as soon as we’re pretty sure all of the sales are posted, the all telling 1st Quarter 2008 numbers will be very interesting. Generally the 1st quarter accounts for 20% to 22% of the year’s sales. So we should be able to make some assumptions about how we expect the year to play out once we have all of the 1st quarter data.

OK…on to Sunday Night Stats and our regular programming.

King County Residential Sales

Active/For Sale -10,064 – UP 285 – median price $528,000- up $3,000

In Escrow – 2,664 – DOWN 48 – median price $447,725 – UP $3,725

Closed YTD – 3,273- UP 390 – median price $435,000 – DOWN $2,500

King Conty Condo Sales

Active/For Sale – 3,518 – UP 83 – median price $324,950 – no change

In Escrow – 863 – DOWN 39 – median price $299,900 – DOWN $50 (asking prices)

Closed YTD – 1,097 – UP 139 – median price $285,000 – no change

“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.

New Heater and Air Conditioner in Seattle Area

images 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11One of our regular readers, Q-Diddy, is looking for some advice on getting a new heating and air system. Sounds like he’s looking for 2 furnaces and 2 air units for 2-zone heating and air conditioning of a large space.

My questions to him are what is the total square footage to need two full systems, and what kind of system is in there now?

If anyone has had a new heater or air conditioner installed recently, we’d appreciate your input.