Category Archives: Seattle-Employers

Q&A with the Banker Panel at the National Auctioneers Association

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Here are my notes from yesterday’s Mortgage Industry Panel from the National Auctioneers Association’s Convention in Denver.  When known, the name of the panelist answering the question is noted.

Panelists
A. Wesley Schuneman
Founder, Ultimate Funding Group Mortgage Brokerage

Kevin Feakes
Mortgage Banker, First National Bank; Residential Mortgage Lending

Ken West
VP Commercial Lending Mountain Plains Farm Credit Services

Q: Are lending standards currently too tight or not tight enough compared to 1985?
A: (Kevin) Contrary to what you’re hearing in the media, it’s still relatively easy to get a mortgage loan right now.
A: (Wes) Underwriting guidelines will continue to get tighter. We have a few more years of tightening.  The industry will overcorrect before the pendulum will swing back the other way.
A: (Ken) Agriculture loans are underwritten in a much different way than residential. Loans are still widely available for agricultural buyers.   

Q: What is your firm doing to prepare for another significant drop in home values?
A: (Ken) Requiring more downpayment.  The lenders I work with learned from the S&L bailout.
A: (Wes) We’re close to the bottom here in Denver. We have a decent market. I’m not expecting further, drastic price declines.
A: (Kevin) We’re preparing for more LTV changes from lenders.

Q for Wes: What does the future look like for the mortgage broker?
A: from Wes: Higher standards and raising the barrier to entry will be good for the industry. The mortgage brokerage industry needs a cleansing.  I anticipate further erosion in the number of licensed mortgage loan originators.
A: from Kevin: I’m more hopeful than Wes. Competition is good for the industry. Fewer players isn’t necessarily a good thing for the consumer. You may see some former brokers shifting to a bank during these times, and then back to being a broker in the future.

Q: On short sales, Kevin, why are banks taking so long approving short sales and is there any hope for getting answers faster from loan servicing?
A: Loan servicing does not have an efficient system in place to process the overwhelming number of requests for a short sale.  It’s going to take time to work out all the short sales and foreclosures. 
A: It would be better if all the foreclosures right now were HUD REOs because HUD has a good system of disposing of their REOs.

Q: Why haven’t banks embraced auctions as a way to dispose of their REO inventory?
A: The systems in place right now are for the banks/asset management companies to reach for a Realtor first, and to try and sell REOs using systems that are already in place (MLS) to reach potential buyers.

Follow up Q: Why aren’t banks wanting to move their REOs? Why list the home for month after month? Why are banks holding on to their REOS?
Panelists did not know. Jillayne’s answer:  It is possible that the banks are trying like mad to spread out their losses over many months/quarters. It is also possible that if a bank quickly disposed of their REO inventory and had to claim the losses, that a bank’s insolvency would become more transparent to regulators.  It is also possible that there is such a huge backlog of inventory, that it’s a time/resource backlog issue. 

Q: Should FICO scores be completely tossed out, returning us to a world where real humans touch each file?
A: (Wes) The idea of using any kind of scoring system at all isn’t inherently “bad.

Is the housing market performing "as expected"?

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To some people, that question will seem ludicrous.  If you are buying or selling a house every 7 years or so, you may not care about this somewhat complex answer to the question raised.  I am writing this post for real estate professionals, rather than the individual who may be buying or selling a home every 7 years or so.  My hope is that if more real estate professionals understood the housing market, more consumers would be better served by those professionals.

For those that want to hear that the market is doing much worse than expected, I give you Detroit.  I heard on the news yesterday that home prices in Detroit have rolled back 8.5 years.  That is much worse than “expected”.  For those that want to hear that the market is doing much better than expected, I have to say “jury’s still out” on that one, as the down market has not yet completed its “expected” cycle. 

Yes, real estate prices always go up.  But when did real estate professionals en masse start thinking that meant it looked like the chart below?  It DOES NOT!

Housing Prices do not go up in a straight line

 
Housing Prices do not go up in a straight line!.  I can honestly say that 20 years ago the only agents I met who thought this way were the salesmen vs. the professionals…and they were few. The first time I overheard an agent at an Open House talking to a first time home buyer explaining the real estate market in terms of “AWAYS GOING UP!” and drawing a chart like the one above for them, I thought “What an Idiot!” 

It is only in the last couple of years that I have seen MOST of the professionals, and consequently the general public, setting the unrealistic expectations noted in the chart above.  Many of those professionals have left the business, and more will follow.  For the benefit of those who will continue in the industry, and for the public at large, lets get back to basics and set our expectations properly. First you set realistic expectations based on an Annual Cycle of Real Estate markets.  The one below is primarily for single family residential housing.  Not condos, not multi-family, not commercial – Single Family Residential Housing Market.

Annual Cycle of Home Prices

Annual Cycle of Home Prices

When home prices increase from year to year, most of that appreciation happens from March through July.  Even when home prices decrease from year to year, prices are still expected to be up from March through July vs. January and November.  THAT is the expectation.
Think of it this way, retail sales are expected to be higher in November and December than in February.  They may not go up as much as expected, and that is not good.  But if sales in November are lower than in February, that’s really bad.  So up vs. down is NOT the barometer…it is up when expected to be up, down when expected to be down…and then it is all a matter of degree.

If you heard a store owner who only sells Christmas Ornaments complaining that his April sales were lower than his Nov/Dec sales, what would you think?  That’s how I scratch my head when I hear someone saying “I’m waiting for the lowest possible prices, so I’m going to buy a house in May or June.  Does not compute!  I’m not saying it could never happen, I’m just saying that is not an appropriate expectation.  As long as you are willing to wait until 4th Quarter of 2009 or even 2010…fine.  But if you are determined to buy within 12 months, wanting the lowest price and wanting to buy in June is not a match.  You will likely get a better house if you wait until May…but not a better price.  Again, not impossible…just not likely.  Go back and study the graph above before we move to broader market descriptions.

For this next part, different people will have different market theories.  Mine are primarily based on a “7 steps forward, 3-5 steps back” theory, that I attribute to having entered my head via Alan Greenspan many years ago.  Nationally the market started moving up past it’s previous peak in 1998.  Consequently the expectation would be for it to go down in 2005.  When it did, people freaked out while I said “DUH”. 

The market performed as expected.  But when professionals don’t know what to expect, they react inappropriately, which creates an unexpected market condition.  It’s like playing a sport where half of your team is not performing their role “as expected”…it throws the whole game off.  When your quarterback starts throwing to the guy in the wrong colored Jersey…all hell breaks loose.  As a real estate agent, you are the quarterback, time to learn the plays.  The people in the stands have a harder time betting on the game, when the quarterback is messing up the plays to the degree that we as professionals have been screwing up.  STOP sending GOOD NEWS! C-R-A-P.  This is NOT an industry based on consistent and continual “Good News”!  STOP wishing ONLY for Good News, and blaming market conditions on the purveyors of “bad news”.  Get Real – Real Fast…or suffer the consequence.

Another analogy.  The market went down when the Dow hit 14,000.  If most people said “DUH”, there wouldn’t have been panic selling.  Yes the market still would have gone down, but the market loses all semblance of sanity when expectations are set at unrealistic levels.  Momentum created by panic forces markets out of their natural cycle.  That is true both on the up side and on the down side.  The Dow was supposed to go down when it hit 14,000…in fact it should have gone down when it hit 12,000.

This is my expectation of the housing market.  Yours may differ.  Lacking an informed and valuable opinion from the professionals, the public will start imposing their own opinions like “markets should only increase at the same level as median income.”  That is not correct BUT professionals have no one to blame but themselves for all of the Bubble Blogs.  When professionals started lying both to themselves and to the public, the public had to move in a different direction.  You hate Bubble Blogs, you say?  Well then stop acting like you don’t have a freakin’ crystal ball!  If you don’t like the public not relying on your opinion…well then go get yourself an opinion!  OK, here’s mine.  Beyond the Annual Cycle above for single family homes, there is the YOY expectation in a long term cycle.

Home prices up for 7 years; down for 3-5

Home prices up for 7 years; down for 3-5

Now let’s define what a Housing BUBBLE is.  A housing bubble is when the market outperforms expectations…not when it goes UP.  A housing slump is when the market underperforms expectations…not when it goes DOWN.  Bubbles ALWAYS burst.  That is why you need to know the degree to which the market should go up (like Christmas Ornament sales in November and December) so that you know when you are entering a bubble zone.

I learned this many years ago…so long ago I don’t know where.  A market will ALWAYS reach and surpass a  level it has previously achieved.  It’s not a matter of IF…it’s a matter of WHEN.  If it happens too quickly, the downside of the cycle will hit harder.  If it happens as expected, the people betting on that expectation will do well.  We want to be a Country that always does WELL…not that always goes UP beyond normal market expectations and never, ever goes down.

Once you set a realistic expectation, you can predict markets.  When the market moves outside of predictable levels, you know you are in a bubble or a slump.  If you think every batter is supposed to hit a home run…you will spend your life in misery and disappointment.  If you expect the batter to always hit a home run…one day he will hit you instead of the ball.

Real Estate Prices are supposed to stop going down, nationally that is, somewhere between 2009 and 2011.  They were supposed to go up from 1998 to 2005 and down from 2006 through 2009 – 2011.  The degree they went up was “bubbled” by the loose lending practices in the latter part of the up cycle.  First that bubble must pop, as it did, and now we’re looking for the end of the down cycle.  If the government wants to make sure the down cycle is only 3 years and not five, then they have to do something to cause interest rates to stay at or below 5.75%, even if that is an artificial stimulus level.

No one can, nor should anyone try to, force the market to be always up.  That kind of talk is for salesmen, not professionals.  If you don’t want to hear ANY bad news, ever.  If you don’t understand that there should be at least 3 years of “bad news” following a consistent 7 year trend of “good news”, please go do something else for a living.  That’s like a lawyer who tells everyone they can win a case, cause they get paid whether the client wins or loses.  That’s like a doctor ordering MRI’s every week for a hypochondriac, because he makes money whether the patient is sick or not. 
Don’t want to be compared to a Used Car Salesman?  Then stop acting like one.

Sunday Night Stats – Buying at 2005 Prices

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Before posting my thoughts of the week regarding where home prices are going, I have been doing a lot of thinking about “Rethinking the American Dream”.  I found this post that I thought was worth sharing.

Now for proofs that people are buying at 2005 levels, even though sellers are not thinking about selling at those levels, to the same degree.

Let me explain what you are looking at in the graph above.  In 2001, 83% of buyers were paying under $500,000.  Economic models must hold something at a constant, in order to provide meaningful results.  What I have held as a constant are the properties themselves.  As we move through the years, only properties (condo and single family) built as of the end of 2001 are included, so we can see what people are paying for those same homes. Also, you have to look at a sample small enough to evaluate, in this case I used Bellevue which I feel is a large enough sample with somewhat cohesive property types in the sampling.

By 2005, only half of buyers could pay under $500,000 to buy those same properties vs 83% in 2001.  The most dramatic change YOY was in 2006 vs. 2005 when the % dropped from 68% to 51%.  Now look at the last two columns.  We’re back to 2005 with 67% of people being willing and able to buy these same homes for $500,000 or less.  In fact the % may end up being more than that, given pendings are based on asking prices vs. sold prices.

The last column shows that only 44% of people who have not sold their homes, and are still trying to sell them, are pricing at the levels that people are willing to pay.

It’s quite possible that by year end the statistics will show 2004 levels, but I expect that to correct back to 2005 through the 3rd quarter of 2009.  Last quarter of 2009 is anyone’s guess at this point.  Not enough data to predict that far out.  Many of the current pending sales are bank owned and short sale properties.  While some may consider that to be a relevant factor, it is not one I expect to change over the next 12 months.  There will be at least as many, if not more, opportunities to buy at the lowest price levels over the next 12 months.

Sunday Night Stats – 5 Year Hold

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Many people are asking, “What do you think will happen if I buy now and hold for five years?” 

You may be surprised to see that this “bubble” is not nearly as big as the 3 five year periods from 1973 to 1988.  1973 to 1978 is the highest appreciation period. The lowest appreciation period is the five years that followed those dramatic increases for 15 years, and still not showing a loss for any five year period going back from third quarter 2008.

Five Year Price Changes based on U.S. 3rd Quarter average prices of homes sold.

Sold in 2008 at $283,400; bought in 2003 for $248,100 – UP 14.2%

Sold in 2003 at $248,199; bought in 1998 for $184,300 – UP  34.6%

Sold in 1998 at $184,300; bought in 1993 for $148,000 – UP  24.5%

Sold in 1993 at $148,000; bought in 1988 for $141,500 – UP  4.6%

Sold in 1988 at $141,500; bought in 1983 for $ 92,500 – UP  52.9%

Sold in 1983 at $ 92,500; bought in 1978 for $ 63,500 – UP  45.6%

Sold in 1978 at $ 63,500; bought in 1973 for $ 35,900 – UP  76.8%

Sold in 1973 at $ 35,900; bought in 1968 for $ 26,600 – UP  34.9%

Sold in 1968 at $ 26,600; bought in 1963 for $ 19,200 – UP  38.5%

Note: U.S. Peak Price to date 1st Quarter of 2007

Sold 1Q 2007 at $322,100; bought 1Q 2002 for $227,600 – UP 41.5%

Data Source

Sunday Night Stats – Days on Market DO Matter

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I have to admit that it is hard to think about anything but tomorrow’s election.  It’s an historic occassion, to say the least.  Especially for those of us who grew up in the turbulent 60’s, and have been around from when President Kennedy was killed to present.  I can’t help but feel that tomorrow “is the first day of the rest of our lives” in a profound and meaningful way.

Next Sunday will be the first opportunity to capture a snapshot of October 2008 as to closed transactions.  Last week I reported that October pending sales that will close in November are obviously down in price, and fairly substantially down, from 3rd quarter sales.

This week I’ve been trying to answer the question “Where are prices?”.  Are they back to early 2006 levels?  Are they back to mid-2005 levels?  The answer is both, and days on market is what separates the two.  When comparing apples to apples and studying data within small segments of each market, virtually no sales are selling at peak levels, peak being summer of 2007.  Those that sell in 20 days or less are selling at mid 2006 to early 2006 levels.  Those that remain on market for 40 or more days are selling at mid 2005 levels.  Those that try to sell at 2007 levels, end up at 2005 levels.  If they had started at 2006 price level, they would have sold more quickly and at a higher price.

There’s really no message to anyone in this post.  Just reporting the facts.  Buyers who buy something as soon as it hits the market, will still do that, and rightly so.  Sellers who ask more than the last property sold for will still do that, because they need the market to beat them down.  Most people can’t sell for less than the neighbor by voluntarily electing to do that.  They have to be on market for 100 days or more before they “give in”, which costs them about 5% on price.  Still, that’s human nature for most people.

New construction is more attractive than it has been for a long time, short sales are still the best values, and best homes in the best locations still sell quickly at the highest prices.  No big news there.  Once we get to early 2005 pricings, the wait will be over.  Why?  Because the prices in 2004 and 2003 and 2002 are not substantially different from one another.  Once prices roll back to January 2005 levels, we will be “at bottom” here in the Seattle Area, unless you think prices will get to 1998 levels.

So for all of the people waiting for “bottom”…your wait is about over.  Now you just have to figure out how to finance those “at bottom” prices, and interest rates will be the obstacle vs. fear of overpaying.

Now let’s all focus on the election tomorrow.  It’s an historic event.  Don’t miss it.  Vote and vote early.

Sunday Night Stats – Prices Dropping

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Recent King County pending sales continue to dip in price.  There seem to be more bargains in the single family home market than the condo market overall.  But that is starting to change.

In the condo market, of the 628 condo sales pending, only 283 have gone pending since the 1st of October, and the asking prices on those were 3.7% lower than the pending sales from before October 1st.  Considering that condo prices for the 3rd Quarter were only down 7.2% YOY, a 3.7% dip in prices is significant and should bring condo prices down to more than 10% lower YOY by year end.  We’ll have to wait and see where they close out.  Those that have closed so far in October have actually closed at higher prices than the 3rd Quarter, so we may not see the full impact of lower prices until the end of the 4th Quarter in condos. 

In the Residential market, 957 of the 1,893 pending sales went pending since October 1, so less of a backlog on a % basis than in the condo market.  The prices of the recent pendings is only down by a hair, compared to pendings from before October 1.  But pending prices overall and closed prices in October to date are down almost 10% compared to the 3rd Quarter and almost 20% YOY. 

If you are hanging in for the perfect house, you may have to wait until Spring of 2009.  But if you’re looking for an opportunity to buy based on bargain prices, the last quarter has a lot to offer.  Remember, for every bargain priced property SOLD there are 5 or more overpriced properties. So far in October it looks like buyers are choosing wisely and getting some real deals.  But you have to know what you are doing out there.

Kind of like going to a huge shoe sale and picking out the Prada’s from the Payless overstock.

As always, stats are not compiled, verified or posted by NWMLS. (required disclosure – it’s also required that I say that in bold letters, for those who’ve been wondering.)

Sunday Night Stats on Monday Morning

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The Dow’s holding its own so far today. “Hanging in the eights”; as I like to say. I don’t see the day coming yet when my week doesn’t start without checking the Dow when I wake up on Monday morning.

Last night I looked at the homes that sold in Redmond in August for the means of financing.  Where once I saw two loans as in 80/20 and 100% financing, I now see two loans as in conforming and jumbo.  One loan at exactly $417,000 and another for the difference.  I saw a couple of FHA loans in the mix and a couple of cash sales, but by and large the purchases had significant downpayments.  $20,000,000 worth of purchases had $13,000,000 worth of debt.  So 35% down overall.

Looking at who got a good buy and who didn’t, the new bogey appears to be 1.09 times assessed value, by and large.  The fabulous buys went for under assessed value, mostly in the high end near a million dollars.  The assessed values I am using are still the ones that 2008 taxes are based on, so be careful there.  The new ones for 2009 taxes should not produce this multiple.  Up to 1.17 times assessed value is pretty safe, depending on condition of the property, with 1.09 times assessed value being fairly doable and the better sold scenario.

Some of the best buys were those that listed low and sold quickly.  Some of the worst buys were listed high, and while the buyer got the property substantially less than asking price, the net result was still too high.  Remember to double check the multiple of assessed value against the main floor footprint calculation keep apples to apples as to style of home.

I’m not seeing any short sale closings in the mix.  Most are still stuck in pending.  The “decent” buys were popular homes dropping from 1.22 and 1.17 times assessed value to about 1.13 times assessed value.  Those were newer two story homes built in the mid 90s.

The waiting game is playing out where new construction is competing with resale by the same builder in the same community.  It will be very interesting to see what the builders are going to do about that as we head into Winter.  Look for some screaming “offers” from builders…BUT check that against the prices of same model resale before being lured by builder offerings.

Still hard to find a good house at a good price in this market, the best values still going quickly.  For those who see something that “looks good” out the gate, but need a method to quickly evaluate if it is a good buy, asking price divided by assessed value is still a good rule of thumb.  The closer it is to assessed value, the less time you will have to think about it.

Losers in this market are those who take too long to “think about it” and don’t have a good valuation tool.  Some of the worst buys were people who bought houses at substantially less than asking price, but still over market value.  Don’t fool yourself into thinking you “saved $50,000” just because you paid under asking price.

Mostly these are some tips for people who are buying in today’s market.  But sellers can take note as well.  After you come up with your list price, divide it by the assessed value used for 2008 NOT 2009 assessments, and see where that leaves you.  If you have a view  property, the multiples will be higher.  Buy if you don’t, and the calculation comes up at 1.5 times assessed value…think again.

Some stats on sold in September homes without basements:

Redmond – median price per square foot $233 in 08 vs. $284 in 07 prices down 18% volume up 25% from 43 to 54.  Median price down from just under $700,000 to just under $600,000 plus more home for the money as to total square footage.

Bellevue – MPPSF $332 in 08 vs. $318 in 07 prices up 5% volume unchanged at 37/38. Median price up from $685,000 to $739,750. (lots of very pricey homes in that mix vs. Redmond and Kirkland)

Kirkland – MPPSF $268 in 08 vs. $286 in 07 prices down 6% volume down 25% from 32 to 24.  Median price up from $526,500 to $570,000.

King County – MPPSF $193 in 08 vs. $223 in 07 prices down 13% volume down 10% from 788 to 704.  Median price down from $449,975 to $382,884

Asking Prices of unsold homes on market today:

Redmond $260 asking vs. $233 sold; 6.5 months of supply.

Bellevue $311 asking vs. $332 sold; 8 months of supply.

Kirkland $284 asking vs. $268 sold; over 12 months of supply.

King County $210 asking vs. $193 sold; just over 8 month supply.

When you consider prices and volume, you see that the deep dip in price sold in Redmond (down 18%) is giving them an increased volume of sales, up by 25%, and a shorter timeframe on existing inventory at 6.5 months in Redmond vs. 12 months plus in Kirkland.

Volume up 25% in Redmond proves that when buyer’s perceive real value, they buy. Buyers with money for downpayments do exist, but they are very, very value conscious. Bellevue stats are a bit screwy, but Kirkland and King County as a whole show that when prices are down slightly the volume is down a lot.  When prices are down moderately, the volume is up somewhat.

So buyers appear to be “happy” at 18% down in price, OK with 13% down in price and not so happy about only 6% down in price.  Remember, I removed basement square footage to evaluate pure living square footage, and never buy without looking at 2008 assessed value.

Stats not compiled, verified or posted by NWMLS (Required disclosure)

Sunday Night Stats on Monday Morning

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I’m repeating this graph because it’s all about the last quarter now.  If you are watching the stock market today, (and who isn’t) you know that yesterday doesn’t matter anymore.  Right now we’re waiting to see if a “Black Friday” or a “Black Monday” or both as we experienced many years ago, can turn into a Black Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

The reason I started Sunday Night Stats back in early January of 2008 was to help people pinpoint a trend.  Well if you haven’t gotten the picture as to the trend by now, Sunday Night Stats isn’t going to help you.

To buyers and sellers of real estate, and agents advising buyers and sellers of real estate, all you need to know today is that September performed as expected.  If you take the brown line as to median price above  and draw it equidistant from the 2006 or 2007 line, you will be exactly at where we are, $377,000.  Who cares.  What we care about is which way that line is going from here. 

Look up at that chart and what happened to median prices from October through year end in all the previous years shown.  Now look at the stock market.  If the stock market is an indicator of consumer confidence, and I believe it is, then we will not see a repeat performance in the last quarter of 2008 as to median home values.  Instead we will see the brown line trending down toward 2005 prices.  In fact, if you have a house on market that you bought in 2005, and you can break even today, consider yourself to be very lucky indeed and DO IT! 

Going back to my Prediction post “My price predictions are: $429,000 for the 2nd quarter of 2008 $400,000 for the 4th quarter of 2008”, I am right on target with the September median at $413,000 and the 3rd quarter at $425,000.  The graph above is the median on a combined basis for Single Family and Condos, hence the variance between $377,000 this month as to the graph and $413,000 in the sentence before this one.  At this point, and hitting my refresh button on the Dow as I write this post, I think we’ll be damned lucky to see the median fall to only $400,000 by year end, per my April prediction.

Usually I talk to buyers and sellers of real estate and to real estate agents.  But the handwriting on the wall today is to the people who are planning to spend 2009 real estate taxes.  DON’T EVEN THINK ABOUT IT!  The market crisis is all about who didn’t see the handwriting on the wall, and who needed to see it.  Today that message goes out to anyone who thinks the new assessment values are a means of increased revenue.  The appeals are going to hit you so fast your heads are going to spin.  In fact, save yourselves the expense of receiving and evaluating those appeals and revise your numbers before you solidify the 2009 real estate tax increases.  If you come up with a budget for spending 2009 real estate taxes based on the valuations everyone received in the mail, you will have no one to blame but yourselves for doing that when the scream and shout hits the fan.

It’s too early to talk about YOY volume, we’ll do that next week.  Today it’s all about expectations as to value, and I expect the 4th quarter to slide down toward that green line of 2005 vs. the trend of the last three years.  I don’t think it will hit the green line by year end…but it’s going to get pretty darned close.

(Required disclosure: Stats in this post are not compiled, verified or posted by NWMLS…never are; never will be.  I do my own stats and no one is responsible for them but me personally.  Sorry to have to repeat this disclosure every freakin’ week…but unfortunately it’s required.)

Sunday Night Stats

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Last week when everyone was talking about median price being down in August, it seemed to me that median prices is generally down in August…or at least flat.  The graph shows the relationship in median price for 2005 through present from June through year end.  It may give you an idea of what to expect to happen to prices for the balance of 2008. I also find the nexus points fascinating and the 2005 vs the three years following to be very interesting.  Hope you do as well.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As usual, I calculated these myself.  We expect the YOY volume paths to cross eventually.  But I doubt that is going to happen this year.  The spread will become narrower beginning at the end of September.  But there will still be a spread, I think.

For these grapsh I combined condos with SFR because over this 4 year period, tracking what buyers are doing is more important than whether they chose a condo or a single family residence. 

During this period we saw many choosing condos vs. SFR because they could not afford SFR.  Now we are seeing the reverse with SFR prices getting lower than townhome prices.  That is putting pressure on townhomes to be cheaper to compete with the single family home market.  During swings from condo to SFR and vice versa, it is best to combine them to see total buyer activity and trends.

Required Disclosre: Data not compiled, posted or verified by NWMLS