Category Archives: Seattle Real Estate Guide

Seattle has many wonderful communities and on the blog posts below you can out stories that talk about some of these communities. If you’re looking for more information about communities then considering checking out our post on relocating to Seattle.

Home Prices in Redmond Washington

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I was running some stats the other day for Kirkland, Bellevue and Redmond home prices and the graph below came out a bit oddly, as if all prices are trending to 200 to 207 per square foot. I say “oddly” because some went UP to there while others went DOWN to there.

That is not to say that median home price within these various Elementary School boundaries of Rockwell, Mann, Einstein, Alcott and Audubon are all running together. In fact there is quite a variance as shown in the graph below.

As noted in my original post the numbers are graphed from low to high in this manner vs to start from zero…which would show the flatter market consequence, would not permit you to see the actual numbers one on top of the other, so I caused them to spread more dramatically only for the ease of reading the underlying data detail.

Rockwell Elementary…very consistent as would be expected given its “close in” location to Redmond Town Center and the general lack of new construction of single family homes within its borders.

Mann elementary still one of the best “bargain” areas relatively speaking and when lucky enough to find a good house there like the one my clients purchased between 2 and 3 years ago, within the timeframe of the charts, Mann continues to be one of the best places to get a home at a fair price that is not too far out.

Einstein…well the fluctuation there is greater for a few reasons some of which have to do with the school and some of which has to do with the decline from “new” to “used” and the turnover of homes too quickly back 2 or 3 years ago causing the dip. But looks like it is recovering nicely from all that.

Alcott and Audubon tell the story of people being willing to go a bit further out to get a newerish house, as in not built in the 60s or 70s, with a large yard at a reasonable price. Clearly 98053 and Sammamish have both been the surprise change in market conditions in 2012. Even though “close in” is still preferred, the willingness to go out further for good house and great school like this one my client’s purchased this year with more land than being closer in was definitely a game changer in 2012 for Redmond.
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Required Disclosure – Stats in the post and the charts and graphs herein are not compiled, verified or published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

On a cumulative and median basis, prices are trending slightly up in the 3% to 6% range. But that is not to suggest that buyers need to panic, or sellers should be getting overly optimistic, as to potential sold prices.

2012 Real Estate Prices

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The basic Real Estate questions in 2012 have been:

1) Are prices UP or DOWN, going UP or DOWN…at bottom, in recovery, recovered?

2) Is Inventory low…will it get better…where is the shadow inventory?

To answer these questions I am using data from the Lake Washington School District, as it represents a good mix of all possible “home” types. It also gives you a framework of how to develop a similar snapshot in your area of interest.

First let’s look at the snapshot of what people chose to purchase YTD 2012.

Key: 1C Black is One Bedroom Condo, 2C Turquoise-Blue is 2 Bedroom Condo, 3C Purple-Blue is 3 bedroom condo/townhouse, 1S Yellow-Gold is a 1 story home, B/T Pink is a Bi-Tri level and 2S Green is a 2 story home with or without a basement.

Let’s add to that some historical perspective to see if those current choices represent a shift of any kind.

Now we add the impact of price changes on those volume graphs as to what people choose to buy…as prices change.

Back to the original questions…answered by Property Type in the order they are represented as to # of people choosing to buy them.

TWO STORY HOMES

First, let’s be clear as to what a “Two Story Home” is and is not. A two story home is where the children go UP to bed. It is not a 2 level home where the children stay on the same floor as the kitchen when they go to bed or when they go downstairs to bed. I say children as the Master Bedroom can be on the main floor in a two story home. A 2 story home can have a basement or not and in the graphs above these homes are represented in GREEN.

The 2 story home is by far the majority preference, if one can afford anything they want.

Prices have been pretty stable since 2009.

Prices are down roughly 19% from peak pricing.

Volume is pretty much fully recovered given we don’t expect volume to reach “zero down” levels.

Shadow Inventory is in 2 places for the 2 story homes.

First there are the homes ON market that are simply overpriced. Technically you have a 3.65 month supply currently “For Sale”, but only a one month to 1.5 month supply that is actually priced to sell based on current pricing. I’m being generous there allowing for homes to be 10% over where they need to be. A full 60% of 2 story homes for sale are priced at more than 10% of where they need to be…or above 110% of the price at which they will actually sell. These stay “in the shadows” and are basically invisible to those who are buying homes, until they have a price change.

Second are the homes that were bought in volume between 2002 and 2007 that are either underwater or just not yet offered for sale by the people who bought them. About half of those homes will come into the market in dribs and drabs over the next 3 to 5 years. Some will be short sales and foreclosures. Others will simply be homes bought from 2002 through 2006 or so that are not underwater. We don’t expect to see a huge surge of those coming on market all at once, so they should not impact the market by a large amount at any one given time.

Part of the reason for the decline in volume is that builders have shifted over to Northshore School District and Issaquah School District, due to the lack of available land. That probably won’t change in the near future.

TWO BEDROOM CONDOS, B/T SINGLE FAMILY HOMES & 1 Story Homes

Interesting that these three segments represent about the same market share as to real estate purchases overall.

The B/T Single Family Home is a Bi or Tri Level Home. It can be a one story with basement, a split entry or a tri level…sometimes a “multi level”. It is represented as bright PINK in the charts above.

Pretty much fully recovered as to volume, given they are not building more of these.

Prices have really leveled out well at 23% under peak pricing.

I don’t expect much MORE Shadow Inventory to come out of this class of housing that is not already ON market, but overpriced. A FULL 75% of these homes are on market…as overpriced…by a LOT.

The One Story Home has not yet settled into to a recovered position!

Still falling in both volume and price.

The Two Bedroom Condo is in the same boat.

Look at the 2nd graph and you will see these three housing segments, PINK, TURQUOISE & GOLD converging pretty much at the same point in 2009.

 

It’s important to note that there will be continual shift here for some time to come. When people can buy a B/T home for the same price as a 1 Story home…the 1 Story home suffers. Mostly due to the extra basement square footage in a B/T home. The 2 story condo taking the same place on stage is surprising…and being caused by the stability in price of the 3 bedroom condo-townhome.

LOTS of Shadow Inventory in the 2 Bedroom Condo and prices have much further to fall.

The 3 bedroom condos…mostly townhomes…are hard to call. They are running too close in price to the Single Family Home and way over the price of a 2 bedroom condo. I would have to say they are going to fall until they are closer to the 2 bedroom condo price than the Single Family Home price. But that’s a rough guess.

No Surprise…the One Bedroom Condo is dropping like a stone. They were pushed up in value and favor back when everything else was priced out of reach. For the most part people are just holding them as rental properties. LOTS of Shadow Inventory here, especially the underwater newer ones.

SUMMARY: The 2 story home and the Bi and Tri level homes have pretty much recovered and should stay relatively stable. Everything else has a long way to go before they have settled at a bottom as to both volume and price.

To determine where all that might be headed you might ask yourself these questions.

Looking at the price of a 2 bedroom condo at $170k and the price of a 3 bedroom condo at $315k…which would you buy? Is ONE additional bedroom worth an extra $145,000??? Probably not. That is what is holding up the pricing on the 2 bedroom condo, and why the 3 bedroom condo or townhome has further to fall.

Same goes for the 1 story home and the 3 bedroom condo-townhome. At some point the 3 bedroom newer townhome is winning over an old 1 story house without a basement…for other people not. These two have yet to come to an appropriate balance.

That’s it for now. The market should slow down a bit now that we are at 30 days to school starting. That is only as to new contracts and not August Closings. A good roundup of where we are…until we have the 4th Quarter results. in.

Everything should drop from here a bit and the big question is…Will the year END higher than it began?, and if so…in which market segments.

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Data in this Post and the Graphs is not Compiled, Verified or Published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service. The dates used per year are from January 1 to August 1 in each respective year.

 

 

2012 Median Home Prices UP…and DOWN

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Single Family Median Home Prices are UP 6% YOY for the First Half of 2012 in Seattle.

First Half 2011 @ $399,000 – First Half 2012 @ $423,000

Bellevue School District is the Big Winner at UP 20% with a Median Home Price of $689,000.

Issaquah School District DOWN 4%, Northshore School District DOWN 2%

Lake Washington School District UP 4%

Median Home Prices for First Half of 2012:

Bellevue School District: $689,000

Issaquah School District: $521,000

Lake Washington School District: $498,000

Northshore School District: $376,000

Seattle School District: $423,000

Northshore School District has become a pretty good buy lately, given many of the schools have shot UP in the rankings and the median Home Price is by the far the lowest in the mix.

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Required Disclosure: Stats are not Compiled, Published, Verified or Posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

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ARDELL 206-910-1000   ardelld@gmail.com   ARDELL DellaLoggia, Managing Broker, SOUND REALTY

How to Buy a Home Stress-Free in a Seller’s Market

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There is a lot of evidence out there, both statistical and anecdotal, that it’s a “seller’s market” in the Seattle area. And that is consistent with my own experience as well. The best example? (Or perhaps worst, since this post is from a buyer’s perspective…) I helped make an offer on a home in Mount Baker, the proverbial “tastefully updated bungalow” with lots of nice features. And it got quite a bit of interest. How much interest? Oh, only 13 pre-inspections, 10 offers, and a final sale price 20% over list. POW! Talk about getting punched in the mouth.

In other words, a bidding war. These situations are emotionally trying for any buyer, and are simply too stressful for some. So what to do if you’re a buyer who has no interest in a bidding war?

Tailor your strategy accordingly. First, don’t even look at a listing until it is at least 14 if not 30 days old. At that point, the odds of a bidding war drop dramatically. You are much more likely to have one-on-one negotiating that allows you to keep control over negotiations and gives you the ultimate ability to either buy the house or not.

But that leads to the next, and much tougher, question: How the heck do you find a good house in this market if you only look at old listings? Admittedly, it’s a challenge, but not impossible. First and foremost, don’t just rely on the pictures in the listing to determine if a house is worth a closer look. For whatever reasons, some agents don’t do the best job with the pictures. So don’t think that the pictures necessarily reflect the true condition, layout, and overall “gestalt” of the house. Instead, look for possible homes primarily by neighborhood, space/size, and price. Compile your list, and then go have a look in person regardless of what you might think from the pictures. Yes, you’ll end up touring more homes, but that’s the only way to find that “diamond in the rough” that will work for you but won’t give you a heart attack when making the offer.

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“Motivated Seller” ???

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motivated sellerWhy is it that when you call to set up appointments to see homes that are for sale, the owner that gives you the longest song and dance, is the one that says “Motivated Seller”? It’s as if the agent is saying… I know the owner doesn’t appear to be motivated…but please ignore that.

Generally an agent calls to make an appointment and says something like: “Hello. I am planning to show your home today between 4 p.m. and 5 p.m.” The potential responses from the other end of the phone should be:

1) Thank You
2) NO…sorry, that’s not a good time.

Answers come in all forms:

1) Well I was going to go to the store, but I guess I could stay and clean up and go to the store later…

2) Can you come on Tuesday instead of today? Tuesday is a good day for me.

3) Can you call my agent because I like her to be here when agents show the home so she can tell you about all of the wonderful things about my home?

4) Is it a “serious” buyer? Because I don’t want people coming who aren’t serious buyers.

It’s a yes or no question. If your home is for sale and an agent calls to show the home, remember that is what you are supposed to WANT to happen!

Say Thank You and Yes…whenever possible.

Buying New Construction – Choosing the Lot

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The first step in buying a new construction home, unless it is an already built “spec” home, is to choose the lot. However, not all lots can hold all homes. So to some extent you have to choose both the home to be built and the lot at the same time.

Let’s look at a small subsection of a fairly standard looking new construction development as to variations of lots available.

ncsp-001

Choosing the lot is likely the most critical phase of buying a new construction home that is not a spec home. It used to be a lot easier to pick the best lot…or at least a good one. A standard lot was built into the price of the home and there was a “lot premium” for the other lots. Let’s say the lot premiums ranged from $2,000 to $15,000. That gave you a gauge as to how much better than a standard lot, the lot you were selecting was.

Unfortunately those days are gone and most salespeople will tell you they are all “best” lots.

Looking at lots 1,2,3 and 4, lot 4 would usually have a premium as it sides to an “open space”. You might say the same for the corner Lot 1. But if the street to the left of Lot 1 is a very busy road…now it is a lesser lot without benefit of no neighbor to the left. In essence your “neighbor to the left” is a bunch of dirty, noisy traffic. Some people feel the same way about the drainage basin to the right if it is ugly and attracts mosquitos. Sometimes people think the drainage area is going to look like a “pond” the way it states on the site plan…and sometimes it does. But more often it looks like an unkempt ugly drainage pool.

Trees? Good Drainage Issues? Can you see a green, yellow, red blinking street light from your master bedroom window? All too often someone picks the lot without standing on the lot…bring a ladder. Stand higher. 🙂

Choose the best lot and the worst lot and assign values from there. Don’t do this from a site plan like the one above without walking the entire area to see what is on the outside of those perimeters. Will there be more new homes to the North or are there existing run down homes with a few junkyard dogs.

You have to get very close to picturing the home on this lot the same way you would if you were buying an existing home on that lot. This is VERY difficult for most people.

Generally speaking only people who buy the BEST lots choose the lot and build from scratch. It makes little or no sense to build a home on a substandard lot vs waiting to see what the home looks like on that lot.

So if all of the best lots are gone…you are often better off buying a spec home or a newer resale home, than building on a substandard lot with no recourse to not “like” it once the home is put on it.

New Construction is not for everyone. If you can get the biggest and best lot in the neighborhood…go for it! The end result can be very rewarding.

“NOT Grandma’s House” Open Sunday – Noon to 3

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8532 16th AVE NW Seattle – Ballard or Crown Hill?

In City and not “Grandma’s House”.

Recently there have been a lot of complaints in various forums and on blogs that the homes they are viewing in the prime neighborhoods of Seattle are all “Grandma Houses”. I’ve seen this phrase used both in The Redfin Forum and on Seattle Bubble. People are asking what is meant by “Grandma’s House”.

Sunday from Noon to 3 p.m I will be at this home, which is clearly NOT “Grandma’s House”. It may be a “McMansion”…but it is NOT “Grandma’s House”. 🙂

P1060404

Hope to see you Sunday.

If you ARE looking for “Grandma’s House”…I will be listing one of those in Maple Leaf near the end of April for about $120,000 less than this one.

Low Inventory? Be Pro-Active

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Low Inventory continues to be an issue for many. This weekend there were so many people at one of the houses I was showing, buyers with their agents, that it looked like an Open House. A few days before agents and buyers were standing in line out front (different house) waiting to “show”.

This is often the case with new listings this time of year, and just because there is a crowd in the first few days does not mean the house will sell in short order. The first one I mentioned did have 5 offers by late afternoon, but the 2nd is still Active with no offers.

One of the ways to be pro-active about inventory is to identify what you want in advance. If you have seen many houses over the last 6 months to a year and know which neighborhoods you want to live in, you can contact owners to find the one or two who are planning to list their homes in the next several weeks. It could give you a leg up.

I have a client who wants to spend about $400,000 for a house in X area. The best homes at that price are in X neighborhood. Only about 50% of the homes in that neighborhood fall at that price. You should not contact ALL of the owners in that neighborhod. Rather sort by square footage and assessed value.

1) If you know the minimum size of home you want is 2,200 sf, then first eliminate all of the small homes from the list using the tax records.

2) If you know you want to spend no more than $400,000 to $450,000, and all of the recent sales in the neighborhood have been at roughly 1.13 X Assessed Value (which is about the “going rate” right now for good areas and homes) you can next sort by Assessed Value. The lower valued homes you likely already ruled out based on square footage. So in the 2nd sort you are knocking off those that will sell for more than you want to spend. If 30% of the homes are assessed at more than $450,000, you can knock those off the “pro-active” list. Doesn’t mean one might not hit the market as a short sale or REO listing. Just means they are not the “target” for pro-active contact.

Now you have a nice list of 50% of the homes in the neighborhood that should be large enough for you, and should sell at the price you want to spend. Odds are maybe at least one or two of those are thinking about selling this Spring, and will be happy to not have to worry about whether or not it will sell. They may receive your letter and be very happy to have a ready, willing and able buyer without having to list their home.

I am not saying that is the best way for a seller to approach selling their home…but for a buyer who is fed up with the waiting game, only to find 5 offers when a suitable house comes on market, this is not a bad way to jump to the front of the line.

Being Pro-Active vs Reactive also feels like you are doing something to reach your objectives, and can be a very rewarding strategy.

An Improving Seattle Real Estate Market in Three Charts

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We dug into the numbers on the Estately blog to see if we could make sense of the Seattle real estate crunch we’ve been hearing so much about. The summary: the market looks healthier this year than in the previous two and, in the first week of March, a whopping 1 in 3 homes sold for above the original listing price. We are looking at homes (not condos or townhomes) in Seattle and King County (excluding Seattle).

The numbers paint the picture of a recovering market:

1. Increasing numbers of homes sold, year-over-year…

Homes Sold

2. … And less homes for sale…

Active Listings

3. … means dramatically lower inventory:

Months of Inventory

More on the Estately blog

These stats not compiled, verified or published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service

Is it too late to see that house?

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A couple of weeks ago I received a call at 8:45 p.m. from a client to see a home. We were making an offer on the home and she wanted to show it to a friend.

Raises the question…even if the home is vacant, how late is too late to see a home that is on market? At that time the answer was 9 p.m. After this Sunday…Daylight Savings Time…the answer changes to 10 p.m.!

Before 8 am. is too early and after 10 p.m. is too late…even for vacant homes.

You can stay later than that…but you must enter by that time.