The ROOF – Things you should know

Whether you are buying or selling real estate, or just trying to decide about your own roof replacement, there are a few things you should know about a roof. As I look out of my window, 95% of the neighbors have a composite shingle roof. So let’s talk about those.

When you are buying or selling a house with a composite shingle, do the math. The house next door to me has a 20 year shingle. The house next door to that one has a 30 year shingle. It is easy to tell a 20 year shingle, because the shingles lay flat, with almost no “definition”. As the shingles get thicker on a 25 year, 30 year, 35 year and up shingle, there is definition and a “layered” look. Even some of the best home inspectors can’t tell a 30 year from a 35 year shingle, so if you are a seller, and know you have a 35 year shingle, it would be good to tell your agent to highlight that feature, and you should also put it on your Seller Disclosure Form.

Sellers: Don’t forget to put GOOD things on the Seller Disclosure form, so it is not merely a highlighting of “bad” things. Add a list of good things, as an attachment if needed, and have the buyers initial the attachment too.

It took me about a week in the real estate business to learn the simple lessons of “roof math”. When I was selling my own home in Cherry Hill NJ, the home inspector went up the ladder to the roof. He came down and told the buyer that the roof was about 18 year’s old and may need to be replaced in 2 years, because it was a 20 year shingle. I said, “The house was built 8 year’s ago. Are you saying they found some 10 year old shingles to put on the roof of a new house?” I really wasn’t trying to be “flip” or nasty, it just popped out of my mouth like that in true “Philly” style.

Everyone should know how to do the simple math of a roof without relying on the inspector. Not because the inspector will be wrong, but because a roof can be just fine and still be “due” for replacement soon. I’m not going to go into second shingles and third shingles, because something tells me these will be obsolete in the future, given most roofs are no longer flat enough to go that way. I will mention roof color briefly. Mr. Cherry Hill Home Inspector was somewhat correct, in that it was a black shingle. Often black shingles will not make it to 20 years, while gray or tan ones can go to 23 or 25. Heat absorption issues. You see very few black roofs in year round sunny climates, like Florida and CA.

Buying a condo? Think you don’t need to look at the roof? Not so. A few weeks ago I attended a home inspection of a condo built in 1986. I walked across the street and climbed up on something to see the roof. The inspector and buyer said “What the heck are you doing over there?” I said I’m checking out the roof. The inspector said “Why? That is the condo association’s problem.” By then both the buyer and inspector joined me under my “perch”. I said look, it’s flat, it’s a 20 year shingle, right?” Inspector said yes. I said “This place was built in 1986. 1986 plus 20 equals 2006. When I get the resale certificate, I need to check to see if they have enough money in reserves to replace the roof, or warn the buyer about a possible special assessment. I need to check the Reserve Study for cost of replacement. I need to check the dollar amount currently in reserve for all replacement items. If there is not enough money there for all things, I need to divide the shortfall by the number of units, or prorate per total square footage of complex by unit size, and give a range of possible special assessment amount.

Buyers note: The condo association is YOU. There is no Fairy Godmother, named HOA, with a magic wand.

I’ll end with this “red flag” for both buyers and sellers. I ask the owner or listing agent, “How old is the roof, especially when I can’t do the math well on a 1917 built home…too many roof changes to do simple math. Owner responds: “I just had the roof checked and it’s fine.” Big red flag! That is not the correct answer to “How old is the roof” 🙂

New-home sales take a tumble

The Seattle Times reports that new home sales are dropping nationally:

New-home sales fell by the biggest amount in almost nine years last month while home prices declined for a fourth straight month, raising concerns that the once high-flying housing market could be in for a rougher-than-expected landing.

The Commerce Department reported Friday that sales of new single-family homes dropped by 10.5 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 1.08 million homes.

It was the second straight monthly decline after a 5.3 percent fall in January, and marked the biggest one-month drop since April 1997.

A Funny Thing Happened On The Way To The Forum…

Actually it was a great evening at the MIT Enterprise Forum program last Wednesday (3/15) on the topic of Online Real Estate. I was on the volunteer program development team that put the evening together, and I got tagged to put together this note for you 🙂 And my own personal thanks to all who helped us with insights and contacts to build the program, including Dustin. There’s already been a lot of great timely comments on the program in this blog, so this note is primarily to report some of the stats and survey results, and a couple of my own comments on disruptive technologies and market inertia (or active resistance, as the case may be).

Attendance at the dinner/program meeting was a sold-out 400 people, one of the highest numbers ever for an MITEF program. The program panel was made up of three local online real estate companies – House Values (Niki Parekh), Redfin (David Eraker) and Zillow (Spencer Rascoff), plus a broker, Real Property Associates (Gordon Stephenson), and an Internet savvy agent, who was also our moderator (Jim Reppond, Coldwell Banker). So it was a good crowd, and a good spectrum of players on the panel. The program consisted of introductions of the players and their companies, key questions and panel responses led by the moderator, and open Q&A from the audience.

Wednesday morning (3/22) we reviewed the results of the online survey we sent out to the 298 attendees that we had emails for – we got 96 responses back, which is a pretty good sample. Here’s some highlights of the responses:

  • 63 % were there because the program was relevant to their work or job – usually not that high; lots of Realtors present, as expected. For over 60%, this was their first time at an MIT Forum event. The other large segment was more the regular MIT Forum attendees who follow, and lead, tech-driven companies and their business issues.
  • 87 % said the topic was relevant to them; 78 % said the program met or exceeded their expectations.
  • 69 % said the level of detail was just right, but 31% said it was too general – higher than we would have liked.

Enough of the stats. Here’s some quotes from the comments that show more of the flavor of the event, and some of the mixed reactions it generated:

“Having Zillow, Redfin and House Values in the same room at the same time was the reason I decided to attend. Not necessarily the speakers themselves, but the companies they represented.”

“I was expecting to hear about more revolutionary technology. It seems the real estate industry is still in the technology dark ages.”

“The topic was “The New World of Buying and Selling Real Estate”. The moderator and the audience of R.E. agents didn’t allow for a real discussion on the future because they feel so threatened by these new technologies. Boos from the crowd of R.E. agents and a moderator who encouraged it stifled an open and honest discussion.”

“It is difficult for businesses to share the future directly as competition is present and they cannot release product plans before they are ready to launch.”

“It was good to hear the stories on the companies’ background and how they work. Although, at times it almost seemed as though I was at an infomercial.”

“Great topic; always fun to hear the spirited discussion that an industry in transition generates.”

All of the above once again proving that it is very difficult to satisfy all of the people all of the time, and that divisive subjects generate divisive reactions. It would be fun to do this again a few years from now, when more of these companies are bigger, and public, and have more visible business strategies.

So now I get to put in my nickel comments, based on my own background as a tech exec, seven years working with the MIT Forum on these kinds of programs, and now full-time realtor for several years. I think that this is an industry in the very early stages of being hit by disruptive technologies and the new business models that they enable. The mass and momentum of the industry are huge, and the consumer market is highly diverse. It may take quite a while for the new business models to clarify and engage their target segments of the market and start to get real (no pun intended) traction. The players we see today may not be the players of the future (for example, see Dustin’s earlier post about Google Base vs Zillow). But some will get traction, and as they do we will see a lot of resistance and delaying actions by those whose market is being disrupted. Some resistance will be tightened corporate policies, some will be PR campaigns, and some will be lobbyist-driven regulation. Anything sound new here? We’ve seen it in industries as diverse as airlines and telecoms and travel and books and so on … Delaying change is worth $billions to the incumbents, and they are pros at the game. But it still looks to me like the technology train is on the tracks, and gathering speed. Personally, I will take every advantage I can of the technology-driven changes… and I will continue to welcome ‘old-fashioned’ people-driven referrals 🙂

Zero Commission

[photopress:howie.jpg,thumb,alignright]We’ve been talking down there in the comments about all of the things agents are “not allowed” to do. One benefit of being an independent is that you can be an avant-gardist and try out new and different things from time to time. I had this idea. Everyone knows that when you list a house, you often sell other houses as a result. Buyers call on the sign or from the internet or you meet them at an open house. These buyers may buy the house they called about, or they may buy a different house from you.

How about reducing the commission on the house you have listed, every time you get a buyer client as a result of that seller’s house being for sale?

Let’s say it is a condo priced at $225,000 with a seller’s side commission of $4,500. Someone calls to buy it, but they have a dog and that condo association doesn’t allow dogs. You sell them a different condo that does allow dogs and earn a commission of $5,000. You would never have met that buyer if they didn’t call on the condo listed at $225,000.

So how about taking 10% of the $5,000 you made as a result, and reducing the fee on the listing from $4,500 to $4,000. Get two buyers from calls on the listing, and the fee goes down to $3,500. Of course no one would want their property on the market long enough for the agent to get 10 buyers, lowering their fee to zero. But it would be possible. Maybe it should be 20% each and 5 buyers to get to zero.

What do you think? Too complex? Is figuring that out as hard as trying to figure out what is going on with Howie on Deal or NO Deal? Maybe I shouldn’t have watched that American Inventors show…agents aren’t supposed to be as “out of the box” as you techies 🙂

Raising the Bar

Since Real Estate Sales is a unique beast and over the years has gotten more and more complicated and litigious, I thought it would be interesting to follow up on Robert’s post about the education needed to become a real estate agent. There are so many fields of knowledge that are needed to practice adequately, and requirements to get a license don’t even skim the surface. I’ve never understood why the standards for entering this profession are so low given the magnitude of the effect an agent’s knowledge has on a customer.

Every real estate contract I’ve ever written has had potential to blow up into a legal battle. None have so far, but that’s probably because my errors mostly went unnoticed, were negotiated away or didn’t do any financial damage. Agents can get in trouble when first opening their mouths to talk to a client about buying or selling real estate and I know that the average agent doesn’t even know what he or she doesn’t know. Despite the many years as I’ve been in the business, I learn something scary on nearly every deal.

When I wrote my first contracts in 1978, I didn’t even know what title insurance was and yet I was HANDWRITING a title insurance contingency (I had language that I copied). Things have changed, the contracts are now boilerplate, but most agents still don’t understand that boilerplate well. Experienced agents understand a whole lot more than the newbies since most of us learned it by doing it wrong at one time or another.

For instance, my buyers were under contract on a vacant house last year and I brought in a heating contractor to get a bid for replacing the furnace. Oh oh, the CO level was at 92%, according to the technician and guess what, he had to decommission the furnace (a state law, apparently) in the middle of a very cold January. The seller was livid, my broker was stumped, the other broker was stumped, but we negotiated our way out of it. The seller (an attorney by the way) paid for the furnace and my buyers refunded him at closing since they wanted to install a new furnace anyway. I got lucky.

That’s just one of hundreds of stories. The scope of a real estate transactions is so broad, that experience in construction, architecture, inspections, repairs, real estate contract law, title and escrow issues, Fair Housing, underground storage tanks, septic systems, well water, lead paint, mold, radon, multi-cultures, finance, accounting, a working knowledge of condominium law and association lawsuits, and all the lawsuits relating to OSB siding, Cadet heaters, etc etc almost seems to mandatory..

Before you think I’m being dramatic here, these issues all come up during a normal realtors practice on one level or another. If an agent isn’t scared of saying or doing the wrong thing, then they’re not aware enough of what can go wrong. Since attorneys aren’t in the showing and listing business, it’s not practical to have one tag along with the agent all day to make sure that every written and spoken word is legally correct.

The only cure for at least raising the odds of being competent is to require a higher level of education. To sell real estate, I don’t think you need English grammer (would be nice) or calculus or History of the World, but you do need to know how to compute fractions, percentages, and know how to qualify a buyer for a home or at least understand how the lender does it. You need to understand the accounting basics of the normal transaction, some basic understanding of 1031 exchanges and for sure, understand all of the multiple forms, what they mean and how to fill them out legally. We’re supposed to say “I’m not an accountant (attorney, etc) and I can’t give you advice in that matter

Full Service for 1%

I came home today and as usual, looked through the mail.  There was the ordinary bills (yuck!), magazines, no fan mail (rats!) and the assorted direct mail pieces (which I normally drop in the round file).  One piece stood out because it was a picture of a house with the words “How much is your home worth?  Interested, I turned the postcard over and it went on to say “Full Service and Marketing for 1% commission fee”  So what, there are all sorts of discounters out there looking for business.  Not so fast.  The discounter on this direct mail piece was a ReMax agent.  Don’t know about you but this is the first outright solicitation that I have seen from one of the “big brands” brazenly advertising a discount commission.  Anyone else seeing stuff like this? 

Why Google Base Matters

If you are building a real estate search site and you didn’t hear the warning shot fired by Google today, then you don’t really deserve to be in business much longer. While just about anyone building a real estate search tool should be concerned, I’m going to focus this article on my friends over at Zillow

Zillow: be worried… Be very worried.

Here’s some background… Yesterday I was playing around with some google searches when I noticed a new box that shows up when you do a real estate search… as in [Seattle+real+estate]:
[photopress:google_search_box.jpg,full,centered]

This takes you to a simple (and kind of ugly) results page:
[photopress:google_result_page.jpg,full,alignright]

Where you can also go to a simple (and not very user-friendly) map of listings:
[photopress:google_result_with_map.jpg,full,centered]

My impression of Google’s latest features is that the data is VERY incomplete and the interface is ugly.

So, why should the people behind Zillow be worried?

Three reasons:

  1. You are not sticky. I’m a hard-core real estate user and after satisfying my Day 1 voyeurism, I’ve never had a good reason to visit your site again. I’ve talked with your staff about this and I know that you are not geared toward a user like me, but I recommend you find a way to create stickiness if you really are planning to be an ad-based media company. Why? See reason #2…
  2. A super-sticky site only has to be half as good at proving a home valuation to decimate your business. People who start their home search on-line do not start a home search by typing in [www.zillow.com] or even [www.realtor.com]. People start a home search (and especially people moving to a new city) by typing a query into a google search box. From now on, those people are ALL going to see Google’s offerings, and should Google decide to add a valuation tool, the tool will likely be “good enough” so that they never even both going to Zillow. Google only has to be good enough at providing a valuation in order to capture most of your market. Why? See reason #3…
  3. People are lazy. People don’t use your site to get the “exact” price of their home since you don’t even try to provide it. If you asked 10 appraisers to value a typical Seattle home, you would get 10 different answers and at least a 5% standard deviation in their answers. Even if you can improve your answers by 2% more to match the variability inherent in the emotional decisions associated with buying a home, that is still not good enough. Don’t waste much more time trying to improve your appraisal methods. You’re good enough and soon others (like Google?!?) will have a service that is good enough as well. Instead, find something sticky. You have a very talented team, so I doubt you’re suffering from lack of ideas. Nonetheless, it is clearly time to develop something that will bring me back to your site on a regular basis.

To everyone else creating real estate search tools, I’m not convinced that a vertical real estate search will ever beat Google’s offerings UNLESS they have a much better database of homes than Google. Right now, Google is seriously lacking in quality inventory. However, if the consumers go there (and they will), then you can expect brokers (and someday brokerages!) to follow with their listings.

I didn't get the house…WHY?

When there are multiple bids, and the price of the property is bidding up over the asking price, the amount of downpayment is sometimes the reason why your offer is not accepted.

Let’s say a property is put on the market at $275,000 and the highest offer is $315,000. There is an offer of $310,000 with 50% down and an offer of $315,000 with zero down. Usually the seller’s agent will advise the seller not to take the $315,000 offer, because she does not expect the property to appraise. While one can buy a house with zero down, that does not mean that the seller is willing to take the risks associated with a zero down buyer.

It is the seller’s agent’s job to know not only what they can get in the open market for a property, but also what obstacles might get in the way of the sale closing. These days, when an agent lists a property at $275,000, it is likely a price higher than the last few sales in the area and a price that will appraise, with some effort. When it bids up over that amount, the seller’s agent must be ready for what will happen if and when it does not appraise. Often that means that zero down buyers will not get the house, if there are other offers with larger downpayments, even if the other offers are for less money. A common result will be that the seller will counter the 20% down buyer with the highest price offered, regardless of escalator clause considerations.

This points back to my post noting that the appraisal is done for the lender. If the property appraises at $300,000 and the sale price is $315,000, the lender does not participate in the shortage. If it is a zero down loan and the buyer has no cash, the buyer will need the seller to reduce the price down to $300,000 for the transaction to close. The lender will only give the buyer 100% of the appraised value, without regard to the agreed upon sale price. If the buyer is a cash buyer, often there is no appraisal at all, since the appraisal is ordered by the lender.

This issue has come up in the last two offers I have presented. In fact, I lost a client who did not get the property because another offer at 20% down trumped her zero down offer. When she asked me to be more aggressive in getting her offer accepted, I explained that the seller’s agent made it clear that the 20% down buyer was going to get the property because they had 20% down and the agent knew the property would not appraise. There was just no way to get the seller to accept a zero down offer, with the costs included in the price, no matter what I did.

Buying your first property with zero down and the seller paying the closings costs is clearly possible, and is done every day. But often the zero down buyer, with no cash to pay their own closing costs, is excluded from purchasing the most popular house in the most popular neighborhood that has multiple offers.

Offering the highest price is of no consequence to the seller, if you can’t close.

Appraisal Question

While the buyer is paying for the appraisal, they are paying for it as part of their loan costs. The appraiser is hired by the lender and works for the lender and his/her purpose is to inform the lender. I just saw an appraisal of a property I know would sell at about $950,000, come in at $750,000. The appraisal was for divorce purposes and it was a unique, difficult to value property. Appraising is an artform, not a science. There is no one absolute number pointing to what a home is “worth”.

The reason there is an appraisal is in case you do not make your payments and the bank has to foreclose. If you are buying a house for $500,000 and you are putting $200,000 down, frankly, the appraiser doesn’t have to agonize over the process. The bank is clearly going to be able to sell it for the $300,000 they lent you to buy it. Now if you are putting zero down, the appraiser is on the line in the event you foreclose and the bank can only sell it for $450,000.

You need to determine what the home is worth. It’s great when it appraises and everyone loves those few times when it appraises for more than the sale price (except the seller). But if it appraises “right on”, don’t take that as some great feat. Different appraisers will get different answers. Appraising for different purposes, like to value for an estate or divorce when the house is not being SOLD, will often produce different results than when the appraisal is for a home purchase.

Clooneygate and Real Estate Blogs

I just read a fascinating story in the the NY Times (subscription required) about a “post” by George Clooney on a liberal Blog, The Huffington Post.  Seems that the Blogger, Ms. Huffington, cobbled together some responses that Clooney had made in news interviews and created the post.  She then ran the content by Mr. Clooney’s PR folks for approval and was given the right to publish the post (as written by her) but attributed to George.  When it was discovered that George did not really pen the message, all hell broke loose in the Blogosphere.   According to the story, even confirmed loyalists to The Huffington Post were upset.   Seems that the medium carries a significant representation of authenticity to it and despite the content of the message, the authenticity that the thoughts were the writer’s thoughts carries more weight. 

So, you ask, what do we learn from Clooneygate as it relates to real estate bloggers?  Be real.  People reading your Blog are interested in the context of your thoughts as they relate to information.  It is not the information so much as what you think about the information.  Your spin.  Your opinion.  

All too much, real estate brokers and agents all want to look and act the same.  Differentiation has, many times, been frowned upon.  Just look at most agent web sites.  Take the name and picture off and most of them look the same.   Blogging is different because of the medium.  Resist the urge to do things like everyone else, especially if it means copying information written by others.  That is not interesting.  You are! 

Russ    Â