Category Archives: Seattle Real Estate Stats

Seattle International Film Festival!

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This past Christmas, I bought my nephew Josh a 20-pack gift certificate to the Seattle International Film Festival and we’ve been surfing the SIFF movie sorter finding all kinds of films that are on both of our “must see” lists.  Last night we saw a Midnight Adrenaline showing of “I Sell the Dead.” Yes, more zombie movies are on my list to see with Josh including “Zombies of Mass Destruction” (filmed in Port Gamble, WA) and Dead Snow. 

This afternoon, I took a four-pack of teenagers to see “Spring Breakdown” and star Rachel Dratch (from Saturday Night Live) was there for a meet and greet. It was hilarious!  Josh had a chance to meet Rachel and get her autograph and I must say he practically levitated for the rest of the day.   After Spring Breakdown, we raced to the Uptown on Queen Anne to get in line for “Paper Heart” starring Charlyne Li and Michael Cera.  It’s a documentary/comedy/romance about Charlyne’s real life quest to find out why she doesn’t believe in love. The film was wonderful and everyone with my group gave it a 5 on the 1-5 rating scale for the audience choice award.  Tomorrow both my nephews and I will be heading down to the U District again to see Kevin Spacey in “Shrink.”

I don’t spend all my time with teen-friendly films and neither should you.  For gratuitous sex and violence, I’ll be catching “Dowloading Nancy” with my gratuitous-sex-and-violence-film-festival-buddy Ron.  Our pact is to ONLY see movies with gratuitous sex and violence each year.  I try to see the opening and closing night galas with my friend Kyoko who always entertains me with stories about what it was like when she was a UW student in the early 70s when the film festival was first getting started. 

Another favorite genre is horror.  Josh and I will be catching “Deadgirl” which created a buzz at the Toronto Film Festival and “The Hills Run Red.”  I wish I had time to see more psychological thrillers but alas, business calls.  If only I could take three weeks off work every year.  You can search the SIFF film sorter by website by genre, program, director, country or venue.   The calendar will give you a quick look at what films are playing where and when every day.  SIFF even has an iPhone app for the festival. I recommend buying tickets online and printing your ticket vouchers in advance. That way if the movie you want to see is sold out by the time you arrive, you’re rewarded for planning ahead by exchanging your vouchers for tickets at will call and get in the ticket holder line!  All the SIFF volunteers have been amazing at helping me with various questions.  My only complaint is having to constantly pay for parking at every venue which really adds up. 

Come say “Hi” if you see me at Four Boxes, West of Pluto, Burning Plain, Worlds Greatest Dad (filmed in Seattle), Cold Souls, or The Clone Returns Home and I hope everyone is enjoying our awesome weather this weekend!

Some Short Sale Statistics in West Bellevue

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I had occasion last week to do some digging for short sale listings in West Bellevue – the NWMLS area 520, west of I-405 and north of I-90 including  Beaux Arts, Enatai, Medina, Clyde Hill, plus Hunts Point, and Yarrow Point on the north side of Hwy 520.

I wondered whether the new NWMLS listing fields to indicate short sale or bank-owned/REO would help – they didn’t; it only showed 3 hits.  So just for fun I went back and did it the drudge way.  There were 313 active listings for single family homes.  I scanned through the agent summaries for each looking for “subject to lienholder approval” or some similar phrase.   I found 32 listings that were short sale, about 10% of the total, and 5 that were bank owned, less than 2% of the total.  So 1) as we knew, there are a lot of short sales going on, and 2) there is very little use so far of the new fields.  So add this to the previous good post that Jillayne  did before the new fields were added by the MLS.

Some other interesting observations out of this little study – this is a relatively high-priced area: 68% of the listings are over $1 million.  But 67% of the short sales are under $1 million.

And last of all, since Sunday, 4 of those shorts have gone under contract – sounds like a pretty good absorption rate; I’ll track them for a while and post an update later.

County recording office closures creating frustration

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The past couple of days our escrow office has received several phone calls from frustrated loan officers handling both purchase and refinance transactions. The frustration has come about due to the county recording office closures and furlough dates.   Contact your escrow or title office to confirm closure and furlough dates/times.   In Snohomish County they have recently indicated that the entire excise, recording and Dept. of Licensing floor will be closed during lunch time, in addition to their shortened hours and closure dates.

Much of the frustration has been directed at loan officers and escrow. Both escrow AND title offices have for months been active both calling on offices and online via website and blogs sounding the alarm about the impact of county office closures for agents writing purchase and sale agreements.

Behold, I give you some relief to help assist your buyers and sellers through tomorrow’s (May 22nd, 2009) county closures for recording sales and also being that recording offices are closed on Memorial Day.

From your very own NWMLS Form 21 purchase and sale agreement it appears (I’m not giving advice nor am I an attorney giving advice) that the contract is NATURALLY giving you an extension whether or not you were aware of it.

Computation of Time

Paragraph “I

Foreclosure Rescue Scammer or AG Victim: You be the Judge

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In order to go into the foreclosure rescue business, foreclosure rescuers must make themselves believe that they are helping the homeowner. This is done in a cognitive way, by attending many foreclosure seminars, reading lots of books and memorizing scripts that can be played back inside the foreclosure rescuer’s head over and over again until it becomes real and true to them.

Similar to how we fool ourselves over and over again when we say to ourselves “it’s only one drink,” “it’s only a cookie” and “it’s not really sex.”  Self deception is very powerful and it appears to be working well with foreclosure rescuers.  I hear many phrases over and over again such as, “it’s perfectly legal,” “homeowners want to stay in their homes,” and “if it wasn’t for me, then….”  With the case of Joe Kaiser, we are starting to hear a different song. It’s the whine of the victim.  You know the type of person I’m talking about who constantly complains about being victimized to the point where they transform into victim.

Joe Kaiser (doing business as PreFlop, LLC, G. Hobus Investments, LLC, Bobo Buys Real Estate, and Unclaimed Funds, Inc.) makes money selling foreclosure rescue sales courses and books (examples: ‘The Subterranean Marketplace in 2009″ for $997. “Learn How to Day Trade in Real Estate Online Using Craigslist for $667.) though not everyone has been a satisfied customer.  Joe buys and sells homes in foreclosure but not just any kind of foreclosure: tax foreclosure.  Some of you will remember fine movie, “The House of Sand and Fog” very well acted by Sir Ben Kingsley, Jennifer Connelly, and the beautiful Shohreh Aghdashloo. I assign this movie as extra credit for my college students because of all the possible title insurance issues surrounding the tax foreclosure plot.  This movie should be required viewing for anyone thinking about entering the world of tax foreclosures.

In a very methodical way, described in his books, Joe locates homeowners who are delinquent on their real property taxes, and also have equity in their home.  This is a bit like a needle in the haystack kind of work today but during the bubble run-up, as others swarmed the trustee sales, Joe focused on tax foreclosures. Interestingly, several of his victims have Hispanic surnames but I digress. Le’ts read the public records documents:

The Court found that Mr. Kaiser violated the Consumer Protection Act by soliciting homeowners with false promises to help them keep or save their home when partial interest deals do not actually result in the homeowner keeping or saving their home.  The Court also found that, in the course of creating partial interest deals, Mr. Kaiser violated the Consumer Protection Act by falsifying real property excise tax affidavits and by acting as both trustee and co-beneficiary seeking a profit from the trust.

Kaiser solicits homeowners facing tax foreclosure and induces them to place their home in a trust, with Kaiser, through his business entities, as trustee and co-beneficiary.  Mr. Kaiser does not pay the homeowner for their homes. Once title to the home is in Kaiser’s control, he pays the delinquent property taxes and stops the sale of the home.

The land trust…that Kaiser created give him complete title and control over the homes and leave the former owners with only two tenuous rights: 1) the right to some percentage of the sales proceeds if Mr. Kaiser chooses to sell the property, and 2) the right to occupy the property for one to three years, provided the former owner pays rent. These two rights are tenuous because the documents contain hair-trigger default provisions which void these rights if the former homeowner is even five days late on a rental payment or violates any of the other terms contained in the numerous documents Mr. Kaiser has them sign.

Mr. Kaiser testified that every partial interest deal he has created is actually in default…therefore, none of the former homeowners maintains their right to possession of the property or a percentage of the proceeds if Kaiser chooses to sell it.  By virtue of the lease provisions and other contractual provisions for reimbursement of all of Mr. Kaisers expenses, his terms entitle him to receive either the entire home vacant or his share of the home’s equity without having ultimately paid any money….Homeowners who enter the transactions believing they are saving their homes are actually stripped of any ownership interest and are not even given a right of first refusal to buy back their home.  No fully informed person, not acting under compulsion would enter a transaction with such onerous terms.

There is much more in the Findings of Fact and Conclusions of Law and if you want to learn how to “Negotiate Foreclosures Like a SWAT Team Leader” then by all means, meet Joe here.

There are some investors who feel sorry for Joe.  Joe feels like he has been attacked by the AG’s office and is blogging about his new role as a victim. Let’s see if this logically works.

In the F&G M. transaction, Mr. Kaiser claimed he saved F&G’s home…What Kaiser actually did was purchase the home at the foreclosure sale and then had Mr. M. sign over his rights to the overage money from the foreclosure sale. As a result, Kaiser obtained both the house and the $45,428.47 in overage money he had paid at the auction. Kaiser never sold the house back to Mr. M. even when Mr. M. obtained a Realtor and made an offer. Kaiser then sent Mr. M. an eviction notice demanding Mr. M. immediately pay $2700 in rent or vacate the property.

I’m trying to work up some tears but they’re just not coming.  Now it’s your turn: is Joe Kaiser a posterboy foreclosure rescue scammer, a victim, a sociopath, a combination thereof, or am I too  justice oriented to become a real estate investor guru?  I just can’t look at someone, flat-out lie to them, and steal their house and money.  If that’s what it takes to be a real estate investor guru, count me out.

HVCC…I’m not making this stuff up

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I’m closing my first conventional purchase that falls under the rules of HVCC (a majority of my transactions have been FHA) which became effective at the beginning of this month.   Today I was asked by the Real Estate Agent, in disbelief:

“If I understand you correctly:

  1. We don’t know who the appraiser is
  2. We cannot contact the appraiser even if we knew.   [Note:  the real estate agent CAN contact the appraiser if they somehow know who it is…the loan production staff cannot].
  3. We have no idea when the appraisal will be done”

Yep.  In a nutshell, people who are considered a part of “loan production” including mortgage originators and loan processors have no idea who the appraiser is until we receive it from said appraiser with conventional financing.

HVCC does not prohibit the real estate agent from communication with an appraiser.  However, unless the appraiser contacts the agent to schedule an appointment there will be no way for a real estate agent to know who the appraiser is.

Note to Real Estate Agents:  please keep this in mind when you are writing up offers with conventional financing.  The mortgage originator has no contact with the appraiser and therefore, the Letter of Loan Commitment that is typically required within 20-30 days may still be subject to appraisal or the underwriter’s review of the appraisal.   We can request the appraisals are provided to us by a certain date; but I cannot contact the appraiser to say “what’s the e.t.a. on the Jones appraisal; we really need it by Friday”.

Currently FHA is not following HVCC however, FHA has been adopting some of Fannie Mae’s other appraisal guidelines and addendums.

Are we having fun yet?

Look No Further Than Seattle Neighborhoods For Penny Pinching Summer Fun This Year!

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Some people don’t know this, but….

Gorgeous globe light at Hiram M. Chittenden locks in Ballard

Gorgeous globe light at Hiram M. Chittenden locks in Ballard

I was a single mother for years until I met and fell in love with my next door neighbor in the Sunset Hill neighborhood of Ballard. Single parents develop a real knack for making every dollar stretch, and I am thankful that things have been easier (most of the time) with a husband! As we all look for ways to save money and make sure that our families are provided for, I find myself revisiting some of those older ideas.

Seattle is really a phenomenal place to live for great free entertainment, but out of town visitors will love these, too! Make sure and check out the Seattle Parks Foundation website if you have a minute, too. They have wonderful resources for all the latest and greatest in parks! This is only the first ten of these because I really don’t want to hog the whole page. Happy Seattle summer 2009!

1. Go visit the Hiram M. Chittenden locks (aka Ballard Locks) in the Ballard neighborhood of Seattle. OK, I will be honest. I am starting with my one of my very favorite places.dsc_0299 This was built in 1911 and serves as a passageway between the Puget Sound and the Ship Canal so that boats can travel to and from Lake Washington and Lake Union despite the huge difference in water levels. Visitors can watch as the water is raised and lowered to let boats come in and out on either side. But that is not all! The grounds are beautiful and feature extensive mature gardens and plantings. There is also a cool fish ladder on site as well as a museum/learning center. Even after any trips here, we always have fun going again!  Need more free here? In 2009 from June 6th to September 7th (Labor Day) there will over 30 FREE and open to the public concerts at the Ballard Locks!

Just one section of this amazing place! 

2. Museum of Flight This is one of the Seattle museums that offers first Thursdays free (after 5PM only) and is a great place to see some of the world’s amazing historic planes including one of the Air Force One planes that Kennedy flew in! This is another of my favorite places in Seattle. This museum is located in one of the early Boeing facilities and the history is just rich. There is something for everyone here and it is kid friendly. I would suggest visiting item #6 (Hat n Boots) after wards because of the close proximity. There is a good restaurant on site at the museum, but a picnic at the park is much more fun!

Beautiful entry at the Conservatory in Volunteer Park3. Conservatory at Volunteer Park on Capitol Hill is so much fun! The park itself is also amazing and has great paths and spaces, but I am in awe of the Conservatory building itself – 6200 square feet of plantings and displays by people that obviously know what they are doing. There are 3426 glass panes on the building. It was assembled in 1912 and has two plants in it that are over 75 years old – one of which is a giant Jade Tree. This is not your ordinary Jade plant! The Conservatory is completely FREE, though I do encourage you to throw a few dollars in their donation bin.

4.Carkeek ParkOver six miles of trails and an Education Center, large open spaces for playing, picnic facilities, a stage, wonderful dsc_0450playgrounds including a fish slide where children can slide through a salmon, plus the beach!!!! Carkeek Park overlooks the Puget Sound and is one of my favorite parks in Seattle! Carkeek Park is just North of the Blue Ridge neighborhood in Seattle and well worth the trip from anywhere in the Puget Sound.

5.Pike Place Market – You do not need a dime to go have fun here, but support these locals if you can. I love it here and could spend all day watching the hustle and bustle!

6. Hat 'N' Boots in GerogetownThe Hat N Boots in Georgetown – I love these!  How cool is it to visit some old giant boots that used to be his and hers restrooms at a gas station. According to one source when the hat and boots gas station was up and running in its previous location even Elvis stopped in once ( I am sure there are lots of Elvis sighting stories – true and untrue, but I love the idea that Elvis may have peed in that boy boot!).  The good people of Seattle’s Georgetown neighborhood played a huge part in getting the Hat n Boots moved to their current location at Oxbow Park (6400 S Corson Ave.). The boots are newly refurbished, but the hat is looking sad while waiting for funds. There is a great neighborhood p-patch there with some of the most amazing plantings I have had the privilege of seeing and the playground keeps my kids entertained for quite some time, but don’t expect to be able to use the boots as a restroom today – they are for display only.

7. Green Lake – Go explore Green Lake Park – This park has it all – a 3+ mile path around the lake itselfdsc_0036 which is perfect for biking, hiking, running, skating, and more, play space, ball fields, pool, tennis courts, and my favorite: the wading pool on the North side of the lake which is filled when it is warm. There are docks for kayak launching or you can fish off the side of the banks of the lake. There is golf here and basketball, plus bathrooms. Swimming is allowed and there is a life guarded swimming beach. Green Lake is a great neighborhood to live in anyway, but really gets busy when the nice weather hits. Green Lake is a great place to take the dog for a walk, too.

8. Fremont Troll. This is a giant troll made of concrete holding an actual VW in its hand! It is located in Fremont under the Aurora Bridge and WORTH THE STOP! The Fremont Troll is also a great photo opportunity! While you are in Fremont, take a stroll along the ship canal waterfront and visit all the great little vintage shops. There is almost always something fun going on in Fremont.

9. Alki Beach Park While I was a single mother, the tradition was to go every Sunday morning and find beach glass at Alki Beach in West Seattle and then drive up into the hills and look at the dreamy houses. Alki has some of the best views of the Downtown area of Seattle anyway and the beach glass is abundant! There is also a rough boat launch for hand carried kayaks, etc. and restrooms. Alki Beach is a 2.5 mile strip of beach and one of the closest to a California Beach atmosphere I can think of right here in Seattle complete with rollerblading and jogging patrons.

10. Take a bike ride on the Burke Gilman TrailGo basically from Ballard all the way up to Kenmore2008-1661 along some of the prettiest trails and areas in Seattle. The Burke Gilman is virtually uninterrupted for the most part from Fremont to Kenmore and skirts the Western side of Lake Washington plus there are restrooms along the way.

Okay, well that is it for now with my penny pinching ideas for fun around Seattle! Even if you aren’t in the market for saving money, go and explore your city! Seattle is a great place to live and play.

Lies, Damn Lies, Statistics…. and Headlines

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Sometimes our favorite statistics mislead us.  I was most recently reminded of that when I was reading one of Ardell’s North King County Stats post – Ardell does a great job on these stats, and sales volume and median price tell a lot of the story.  But there is another dimension we need to keep an eye on, and that is the change in mix over time – particularly the change in the ratio of number of higher price homes sold to number of lower-price homes sold.  That change in mix can make the same set of statistics generate a variety of very exciting, or depressing, headlines.

Here’s an example: if over a year or so the number of sales of high-priced homes drops a lot, and the number of sales of low-priced homes doesn’t drop as much, then both the median and the average prices are affected dramatically.  If we are concerned that our home prices are dropping, we watch that median number like a hawk – we’ve been trained that ‘median’ is better than ‘average’ for telling what’s really going on.

Suppose we build an example set of data where the mix of home sales has changed dramatically over the course of a year or so, and the total number of homes sold has dropped in half, but the value of individual homes has dropped only 10%.  As it turns out, there are lots of ways to cut the data, and some of them yield more exciting statistics than others.  We all know the old saying “Bad news sells newspapers

More North King County Stats

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There’s some griping around the web about my separating North King County from South King County.

Sold YTD the median home price  in North King County is $439,725 vs. $333,325 in South King County.

Sold YTD the median price per square foot in North King County is $217 vs. $169 in South King County.

I think a hundered grand difference, is a big deal.  I think a 25% variance is a huge deal.  Feel free to disagree.

Let me ask you this.  You come to me saying you would like to buy a house for about $350,000 near Microsoft.  I might be able to convince you to go to Green Lake or some point just to the other side (Seattle side) of the 520 bridge. Maybe Kenmore or Bothell or Juanita/Finn Hill…possibly Duvall. Maybe buy a townhome vs. a single family home. But would you agree to Federal Way or Auburn?  I don’t think so.  Pretending that what happens in Redmond influences what happens in Auburn, or vice versa,  is of no value to anyone.

Markets are moved by the decision makers, and the decision makers in this market are the buyers of homes.  Only home buyers can reset the data.  So reporting in the manner that buyers actually make decisions to buy, is important.

If there ever comes a day when the majority of people who want to buy a home give equal consideration to Auburn vs. Redmond, well then they will become one market.  Until then, separation is of more value than lumping everything together by County.

You should care about what happens in the market priced over your price range, as a cram down on those home prices will in lagging fashion affect the values in your price range. Knowing how many homes are sold there, and the buildup of unsold inventory there, will give you some predictive data with regard to the impact it will have on YOU. Will 100 houses not selling for over $1.2 million affect your purchase of a home for $350,000?  Not likely.  Will 2,000 homes not selling for between $600,00 and $800,000 affect the price of your purchase at $550,000? Very likely, yes.

Very, VERY important right now is the affect lower single family home price is having on the townhome and condo markets.  Most sellers look at like kind product, and rarely condsider “If someone can buy a single family home for this price, why would they buy my townhome for the same price?”  And that is exceptionally important right now for most condo and townhome owners.

I understand that it’s easier to understand data when everything is lumped together, and factoring in the specifics that affect YOUR decision is tedious and a lot of work.  But for years people have said that your home purchase decision is one of the most important decisions you make in a lifetime. If you believe that is true, then shouldn’t it be hard vs. easy?

North King County – Additional data (that is not posted, compiled or verified by NWMLS) I hate that required disclosure. Would make more sense to credit them if it WAS regurgitated from their published data. Having to say it isn’t, every time I post data, is annoying but a rule of membership. And it must be in bold lettering. Apologies for the redundancy of having to say that in every data post.

Property sold, including homes, townhomes and condos in North King County for more than $600,000 represents only 19% of all property sold YTD.

property-sold

Property FOR SALE and NOT sold in that same area as of today shows us that while only 19% of property sold is selling for over $600,000, 40% of what is for sale is priced at over $600,000.

for-sale-north-king

That tells you that under $600,000 is 1,555 divided by 4 or 388 sales a month and 3,604 divided by 388 equals a 9 month supply of inventory in North King county priced at $600,000 or less.

Over $600,000 is 368 divided by 4 month YTD is 92 sales per month. 2,443 for sale divided by 92 sales per month = a 26 month supply of inventory, which is almost 3X worse than the under $600,000 property.

Let’s separate the condos from the single family homes in the under $600,000 market.  While the overall absorption rate is a 9 month supply:

for condos under $600,000 the absorption rate is 13 months

for single family the absorption rate is 7 months

For “marketwatchers”, lumping everything together is easier.  But if you are looking at real estate blogs for more than party chit chat, if you are trying to get a lot of info before buying or selling real estate, Countywide stats do not tell you the story you need to hear.

If $100,000+ variance in median home price between North King County and South King County means nothing to you, then you are not likely planning to buy or sell real estate.

Sunday Night Stats – Volume UP YOY?

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It’s been a very long time since we’ve seen anything but volume down. Often we look for the low end to move early in the year, as a sign that there will be some increased activity in the higher price tiers in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Though I wouldn’t bet on that this year, as many who are selling will not be buying a replacement home.

The best story is in the $400,000 and under price range (single family). If I move that mark up to $500,000 and under, there is no increase.nkc-yoy1 

 

Something good has to start somewhere, and that somewhere seems to be in the $400,000 or less price range. “North King County” was derived by drawing a line straight across downtown Seattle, and the stats are for anything in King County above that line. The increase is slight, but compared to the dramatic, continued decrease in the other price tiers, a little bit UP is big news.  In the condo market there is also a slight increase in volume YOY in the under $200,000 market.

The worst news is for anyone trying to sell in the $1.2 million and above price range, where there seems to be a 5 to 6 YEAR supply of inventory. Even so, surprisingly many of those that did sell in 2009, sold in less than two weeks and at prices close to the 2009 assessed values. But the odds of selling at all are so slim to none for most sellers.

nkg-sold-ytd-2009

While you might not think there are many homes that sell for under $400,000 in North King County, the chart above shows that this price range accounts for a large % of all homes sold.

Not really a strong buyers market in the $400,000 or less range.   To see the chart for the break down of properties for sale, vs. sold, I have all three graphs posted HERE. To get the absorption rate for current inventory, divide the amount sold by 4 and then divide total for sale by that amount.

I believe this is the first time we are seeing volume up YOY for pretty much anything, since the market turned in July of 2007.

An added sign that things are moving toward where more people can buy them.  If I look at single family and condo sales combined, under $400,000 accounts for 52% of all solds vs. last year when that same price range accounted for only 40% of all solds.

Next week I’ll break that $400,000 to $800,000 down a bit, and see if the higher end of the tier is affecting overall performance.  But at this point I do not see an increase YOY, even in the lowest price segment of that tier.

(required disclosure) Statistics are not compiled, posted or verified by NWMLS.