Category Archives: Seattle Real Estate Stats

Seattle Real Estate Recovery in 2009?

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I’m busy making James’ Biscotti , but I just got a Tweet from Matt Goyer over at Redfin about a Cover Story in the Seattle PI.  I glanced at it and everyone and their mother is putting in their $.02 about the Seattle Real Estate Market in 2009.

You can read it HERE

I didn’t see much of a concensus.  The usual suspects saying it’s going to be good vs. the usual contra-suspects saying it’s going to be bad.  I’ll look at it more closely when the bis-cotti is twice baked (biscotti means twice-baked; not biscuit).  In the meantime, if anyone sees a strong case for believing in one person more than another, let me know.

James, your recipe calls for “a lb. of flour” and I have a half used 5 lb. bag.  I guess I’ll have to Google how many cups = 1lb. of flour 🙂

We’re back to work…but’s it’s still Holiday Time too!   Plus, we can’t really do any meaningful year end or 4th Quarter stats until a week or so into the New Year.

So far, December is neck and neck with November as to median prices (per square foot), and 12% down for the year.

Real Estate Agents, Seth Godin and Tribes

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Everyone who is going to buy or sell a house in 2009, should answer this question before choosing an agent:

Are you looking for a Leader-Agent, or are you looking for a Follower-Agent?

For those who have never heard of Seth Godin and/or Tribes, the hyperlinked words in this sentence are links to valuable resources, in that regard.  Now…forget Seth.  This is not a post about Seth Godin and Seth Godin is not in my tribe. 

This is a post about how people CHOOSE a real estate agent, and how agents decide whether or not they should work with a given potential client.

If you are looking to hire an agent, but you want to give the agent a list of things to do,.   Or you want the agent to have a list of things that the agent will do, in sequence, regardless of whether or not that step is appropriate at that time. Then you are looking for a Follower-Agent.  That’s OK! 

What’s not OK is for you to pay a LeaderAgent-Price for a Follower-Agent, or expect a Leader-Agent at a Follower-Price.

What’s not OK is for you to hire a Follower-Agent, lead him, and then blame him when the results are less than satisfactory.

The “picture” below is my integration of Godin’s Tribe Concept, with the age old Probe, Evaluate, Close Concept.  The more quickly you can Probe, Evaluate and Close in each moment, the less time you will waste dealing with people who are just Not In Your Tribe. 

“CLOSE” = Determining if someone is right for any of your Tribes, quickly putting them in the “right” Tribe, or putting them on the outside of the Cycle Chart altogether.  The more quickly and accurately you can “close”, the happier you will be in 2009.  That’s true of all business and personal “choices”.

“Outsiders” are not bad people.  Well, a few are.  In the photo below, you will see dots outside of the circle.  Those are people you choose not to deal with, for whatever reason.  The one’s with the X over them are the bad ones 🙂 

Truth is, we all have many Tribes.

Tribe 3 is the Real Estate Transaction for a couple without children who want to hire a few followers to “assist” them. 

Tribe 1 is more reflective of my typical real estate transactions:  4 equally important forces all doing their part well.

Tribe 4 is indicative of the networks used by each of those 4 people in Tribe 1, to accomplish their part of the transaction.  Each Leader-Participant has a Tribe of followers.

For Agents:  If you are a single practitioner, then you likely will have 24 to 36 people in your Tribe in a year’s time.  Stop trying to be all things to all people.  Recognize that 24 – 36 fabulous “Tribal Relationships” is all you need, and learn how to quickly “Probe, Evaluate and Close”, to select the best mutual relationships.

For Buyers: The most important thing for you to understand is that most often, a buyer will not know that they need a Leader vs. a Follower, until it is too late to go get one.  That’s just a weakness of the system.  Knowing that up front may help you…maybe not.  It is what it is.

For Sellers: Be honest with yourself about your ability to be objective.  Don’t hire an agent; and then act like a For Sale By Owner.  You just complicate things to the point where no one is successful.  If you want to run the show…GREAT!  Just make sure you hire a Follower-Agent and pay a Follower-Price.  Don’t hire a Leader-Agent and spend all of your time butting heads with the agent.  That tension will lead to failure somewhere along the line.  Knowing that up front may help you…maybe not.  It is what it is.

Tribes and Choosing

Tribes and Choosing

Priceless "Gifts" for my Readers at Christmas

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How do you give back to “the anonymous many”?  Those who “speak back” to me in comments, are my most prized and loved readers.  Imagine singing to an audience that provides no perceivable reaction?  But I also appreciate the thousands of silent readers who sometimes email privately, and more often stay in the shadows.

What do you give to “an internet audience” whom you appreciate SO MUCH, and yet cannot “see”? Priceless Gifts you can enjoy today…and for many years to come…as long as the links don’t break.

What a wonderful gift we have in the internet.  Unbelievable that we can experience this Pulitzer Prize Winning composition, The Little Match Girl Passion by David Lang performed at Carnegie Hall.  We even get to see David Lang’s own account of what he hoped to convey with this piece.   Gift #1

Award Winning Photography from the 2007 Winner of the Photobloggie Awards.  Imagine making a 2009 Calendar for your own personal use, using 12 of these magnificent photos of your choosing. Gift #2

We love our dusty old cookbooks, and the new ones as well.  But what a gift to be able to SEE and almost SMELL a recipe via the wonderful world of video on the internet.  I chose this half moon ravioli recipe, made with Azumaya,  because of its simplicity.  A ten minute from start to finish gourmet fantasy that you can “stuff” with pretty much anything you want.  I would use ricotta cheese vs. mascarpone.  Gift #3

We are the internet, you…me…RCG.  A powerful, growing force to be reckoned with.  I give you a tale of how the power can be unleashed in real, and meaningful ways without bounds:  Gift #4

2009 will not be a year of great change.  It will be a year of Great Hope for Change, one small step at a time, via you and me acting the best we can in each moment.

I would very much appreciate any return gifts you may have, via links, sent to me, ArdellD at Twitter.  I will continue to share my passion for real estate with you…and hope you will in like-kind, share your passions with me.  Be change; influence a mind.

Buon Natale!

Tips from King County for the winter weather

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We were contacted from local county officials requesting us to post information to help our readers regarding the potential winter weather:

Are you prepared?  Steps to stay safe in this weekend’s storm

With high winds forecast for this weekend and possible power outages, it’s time to take steps to stay save and avoid carbon monoxide poisoning.

How to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning

Carbon monoxide can kill you or cause serious injury.  Carbon monoxide gas comes from burning fuels such as gasoline, propane, oil, kerosene, natural gas, coal or wood.  Here are some steps to prevent carbon monoxide poisoning.

  • Never use a gas or charcoal grill, hibachi, or portable propane heater to cook indoors or heat your home.
  • During a power outage or at any other time, do not operate fuel-powered machinery such as a generator indoors, including in the garage.
  • Avoid combustion “space heaters” unless there is an exhaust vent.

Carbon monoxide poisoning can strike suddenly and without warning.  In some cases, physical symptoms of carbon monoxide poisoning may include splitting headache, nausea and vomiting, and lethargy and fatigue.  If you believe you could be experiencing carbon monoxide poisoning, get fresh air immediately.  Call for medical help from a neighbors home.  The fire department will tell you when it’s safe to reenter the home.

For a full list of carbon monoxide prevention tips and other safety and disaster information in English and other languages, visit www.kingcounty.gov/health/disaster

Other important safety tips

  • Make sure you are wearing enough warm clothing before going outdoors.  Wind speed can create dangerously cold conditions even when the temperature is not that low.
  • If you think power will be out for several days, check with your city for location of warming shelters.
  • Watch for signs of frostbite and hypothermia-slurred speech, confusion, uncontrollable shivering, stumbling, drowsiness and body temperature of 95 degrees Fahrenheit or less.  Get medical help immediately if you think someone has frostbite or hypothermia.
  • Check on elderly friends, family, and neighbors to make sure they are safe.
  • If power goes out where you live, keep food safe by keeping the doors closed on your refrigerators and freezers as much as possible.  A full freezer can stay at freezing temperatures about two days” a half-full freezer about 1 day.  Potentially hazardous foods, like meet and fish, should be discarded if thawed and warmer than 41 degrees.

Update: News Release from the City of Seattle

Historic Snohomish Homes glow in winter wonder.

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Some of the many  Historic Snohomish Homes are oriented on wide tree-lined streets and remind me of growing up in the Capitol Hill neighborhoods very near St. Joe’s school, Stevens Elementary School and Holy Names Academy.   Some of the larger historic homes of Snohomish share similar architecture, classic lines and warmth that is accentuated when under the soft blanket of our local snowy weather.

I brought the camera to work this morning to hopefully capture some scenery (or crazy drivers) while coming to work and on my way home.  These are very amateur photos, but I tried.  Enjoy.

This photo above does not show it well, but there is a large wooden placard hanging under the front porch gable that reads, “Merry Christmas.”  It must be about 8 ft wide.  If you click the photos you might see it better.

Classic.  Gorgeous wrap-around radius deck and historical colors, probably from the Benjamin Moore palette paint line.   A wonderful treat to see a full Christmas Tree in the upper 2nd floor porch/deck.  Tremendous detail on this historic home, much of the 2nd floor shows wonderful wood work, pillars and dentil molding.  (Boy, I wish Snohomish had a lumber store similar to Seattle’s old Blackstock Lumber.   I’d probably be broke buying up all that clear VG Fir moldings)  Much is blocked from the trees, but who’s complaining?  Not me.

These homes are a lot to take care of and maintain, but there is nothing like them.

Snohomish river looking from park in downtown Snohomish towards the east.  Just weeks ago, this river was raging and near flood stage.   In years past, the flooding of this river would rise to levels above the bank, which is several feet high and cover those bolted down picnic benches.

Snow in Seattle

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Yesterday many schools were closed with anticipation of snow…in Seattle, it missed us.  This morning, we made up for it!  There’s no doubt this is a “snow day”-much to the excitment of my teen.   I took this photo about an hour ago while I was taking my old Pug for his morning walk in Alki – West Seattle.  This snow, by the way, is perfect for building a snowman–nice and crunchy. 

I can’t help but wonder if our weather will impact year end closings with more snow in the forecast.  Hopefully everyone plans accordingly–especially with Christmas and New Year holidays coming up.

And on a business note, rates for 30 year fixed are currently 4.75% for 740+ credit (apr 4.875) based on $400,000 loan amount with a $500,000 sales price.  Priced with 1 point and 45 day lock.  Rates are higher than what I quoted yesterday morning by about 1 point in fee!  I’ll be posting updated mortgage rates here tomorrow morning!

Stay warm!

Volunteers needed in Bellevue!

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I just received an email from my CERT group coordinator (Certified Emergency Response Training) that due to weather conditions, a shelter is opening in Bellevue to handle the Special Needs population.  They are sorely in need of some volunteers, no training needed, to help staff the shelter.  It is located in the Crossroads area of Bellevue, and contact info to volunteer is at the end of this email.

As many of you know, my sister is in surgery over at Evergreen today, and I will be helping her after surgery as a guest in my home for at least a couple of days.  Since I can’t respond to the request by being a volunteer at this time for that reason, I am hoping that this message will reach enough of you to meet this immediate need. I may be able to jump in at the end of the schedule depending on how my sister is doing after surgery today.

VOLUNTEERS ARE NEEDED: Wed. 12/17, Thurs. 12/18, Sunday 11/21 and Monday the 22nd from 9 p.m. to 7 a.m.  Staying awake during the entire shift is the request.  From the email: “Social Service agencies are handling all notifications to target populations.  Those who come to use the shelter may arrive and register between 9:30 p.m. and 1:30 a.m. and must leave by 6:30 a.m.  30-50 max people are expected.  A Kirkland mother and her children ages 7, 4, 2 and 1” are expected to arrive tonight, as example of the growing need for services and volunteers to staff the shelter.

Contact Info to Sign Up:

Cathryn Laird

Assistant Human Resources Director

City of Bellevue

425-452-6817

CLaird@bellevuewa.gov [mailto:CLaird@bellevuewa.gov]

King County Recorders office scheduled furlough dates you should know about

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Some of you in the real estate business are probably aware of this, but for others this information may be also be useful. E-mails have been circulating regarding King County Recorders office closures due to staffing furloughs. I called the recorders office to confirm and they sent me the letter dated December 11, 2008 to all the “recording customers.” In addition to normal recognized Holidays, the King County Recorders office will be closed the following 2009 dates:

Friday, January 2, 2009; Friday February 13, 2009; Friday, April 10th, 2009; Friday, May 22, 2009; Friday, June 19, 2009; Monday, July 6, 2009; Friday, September 4th 2009; Monday October 12, 2009; Wenesday, November 25, 2009; and Thursday, December 24, 2009.

From the Dec. 11th 2008 letter from the King County Records and Licensing Services Division:

“King County is facing an unprecedented $93.4 Million 2009 budget deficit. The 2009 budget deficit will be addressed through permanent reductions, efficiencies, salary and overhead savings and limited use of reserves. One of the strategies to offset costs is with reductions in employee hours worked. All King County employees, with the exception of essential safety and transit staff, will take ten unpaid furlough days in 2009.

The schedule of furlough days in 2009 is as follows: (see dates above)