Another one bites the dust…

It’s pretty amazing how in the span of just under 3 weeks that…

  • Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac were seized by the government
  • Leman Brothers went into bankruptcy
  • Bank of America buys Merrill Lynch before they go into bankruptcy
  • The Federal Reserve gives AIG an $85 billion loan
  • President Bush seeks a $700 billion Bailout
  • Goldman Sachs & Morgan Stanley turn into regulated commercial banks
  • Warren Buffet buys $5 billion of Goldman Sachs stock
  • Washington Mutual is seized by the government & sold to JP Morgan Chase

I’m just in a state of shock and near disbelief witnessing the carnage unfold on Wall Street so fast.

    

The Bad Reputation of RMBS

I was in Mill Creek earlier this evening having sushi with my daughters and everytime we drive down into Mill Creek I say the same thing: “I remember when this whole place was nothing but trees!” They’ve already heard the stories about how I use to leave the house at dawn with the neighborhood boys and play in the woods all day until dinner time.  But they haven’t heard the stories about the banks.  As I was driving back up the hill, I was stopped at a horribly long stop light which gave me time to ponder the bank to my left, a Wells Fargo, and educate my children: “That bank use to be a First Interstate Bank.  Before that it was an Olympic Bank.” Before that it was something else.

With so much shock and awe over the past few days about the possible imending doom headed our way unless we quickly pass Paulson’s bailout plan, and all the taxpayer backlash on the blogs as well as being reported in the MSM, the new question becomes, well what are some other worthwhile ideas for how to get us out of this mess?  Today, Dr. Krugman suggests that we consider anything coming out of Henry Paulsen’s mouth to be a lie.  This might be a good way to solve the financial crisis extremely fast.

“So, this morning Hank Paulson told a whopper:

“We gave you a simple, three-page legislative outline and I thought it would have been presumptuous for us on that outline to come up with an oversight mechanism. That’s the role of Congress, that’s something we’re going to work on together. So if any of you felt that I didn’t believe that we needed oversight: I believe we need oversight. We need oversight.”

What the the proposal actually did, of course, was explicitly rule out any oversight, plus grant immunity from future review. Read more here.

 
Want to see Henry Paulson in action? Watch this quick video. When he’s testifying, at the part where he says “I want oversight” watch his head go back and forth in a “no” motion.  I tend to believe people’s nonverbal signals over the words they say. 

The Paulson/Bernanke bailout plan details are starting to rise to the surface:

One thing is clear – something we all guessed correctly – is that the intention of the plan is to pay premium prices for troubled assets to recapitalize the banks. It’s still not clear how the price mechanism will work, and unfortunately Paulson and Bernanke are unable to describe how this will work..

This means the TARP plan would buy assets from banks at a higher price than what the banks could get if they tried to sell them at fair market value. Bernanke and Paulson believe the assets are being unfairly underpriced in the free market because of their bad reputation so instead, they’re proposing that the taxpayers subsidize the re-capitalization of the banks.

One analyst says it would take at least 5 trillion for the proposed plant to work.

Why not let the banks come clean and sell their assets at today’s prices, and we can spend taxpayer money building back up the FDIC insurance fund. Weaker banks will fail and stronger banks will buy the assets of the weaker banks from bankor from the FDIC after failure.  Big banks like WaMu could be split up into smaller entities which will be easier for many different banks to absorb. 

Eleua, a frequent commenter on this blog, has been working with a group of other like-minded individuals and he has penned an outline for a solution here:

There is a solution that costs the government nothing, eliminates “moral hazard,

Has the Distressed Conveyances law curtailed foreclosure rescue scams?

In this Sunday’s Seattle Times there was an article on “foreclosure rescue scams.” I found the timing interesting given the recent enactment of the Distressed Conveyances law effective in June of this year. This law was specifically enacted to curtail these practices and even provides a rather large “stick” to use in convincing people that they should not lure owners into such transactions (in the form of punitive damages of up to $100,000).

Does anyone have any insight into whether these scams continue unabated? Unfortunately, I have no direct personal insight into the issue. [CAUTION: Plug Ahead.] Although I offer a very affordable consultation that is well-suited for anyone who has been approached by a “rescuer,” I have yet to generate much business. So, I really have no idea whether the new law is having the desired effect. Unless the Seattle Times is behind the curve, it would seem that the new law has yet to achieve the desired impact (i.e., make this practice less common).

Sunday Night Stats

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Last week when everyone was talking about median price being down in August, it seemed to me that median prices is generally down in August…or at least flat.  The graph shows the relationship in median price for 2005 through present from June through year end.  It may give you an idea of what to expect to happen to prices for the balance of 2008. I also find the nexus points fascinating and the 2005 vs the three years following to be very interesting.  Hope you do as well.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As usual, I calculated these myself.  We expect the YOY volume paths to cross eventually.  But I doubt that is going to happen this year.  The spread will become narrower beginning at the end of September.  But there will still be a spread, I think.

For these grapsh I combined condos with SFR because over this 4 year period, tracking what buyers are doing is more important than whether they chose a condo or a single family residence. 

During this period we saw many choosing condos vs. SFR because they could not afford SFR.  Now we are seeing the reverse with SFR prices getting lower than townhome prices.  That is putting pressure on townhomes to be cheaper to compete with the single family home market.  During swings from condo to SFR and vice versa, it is best to combine them to see total buyer activity and trends.

Required Disclosre: Data not compiled, posted or verified by NWMLS

Blog Roundup on the Bailout Proposal

Calculated Risk
Paulson Plan: Will it Work?

The primary goal of the Paulson Plan is to get the banks to lend again – or “unclog the system” as Secretary Paulson put it. Secondary goals are to “protect the taxpayer” and hopefully minimize moral hazard.

Will the plan achieve the primary goal? I think the answer is yes. By removing these troubled assets from the balance sheets of the financial institutions, the banks will able to lend again without lingering doubts about their solvency and viability. At first glance, the size of the plan seems sufficient.

It is almost guaranteed that there will be unintended and unanticipated consequences, but the plan will probably achieve the primary goal. And making sure the banks continue to lend will minimize the impact of the credit crisis on the general economy.

Unfortunately the Plan fails to address the secondary goals….

Yves at Naked Capitalism:
Why You Should Hate the Treasury Bailout Propsal

the shockingly short, sweeping text of the proposed legislation has lead to reactions of consternation among the knowledgeable, but whether this translates into enough popular ire fast enough to restrain this freight train remains to be seen.

First, let’s focus on the aspect that should get the proposal dinged (or renegotiated) regardless of any possible merit, namely, that it gives the Treasury imperial power with respect to a simply huge amount of funds. $700 billion is comparable to the hard cost of the Iraq war, bigger than the annual Pentagon budget. And mind you, $700 billion is not the maximum that the Treasury may spend, it’s the ceiling on the outstandings at any one time. It’s a balance sheet number, not an expenditure limit.

But here is the truly offensive section of an overreaching piece of legislation: Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.

Dr./Prof. Paul Krugman
Thinking the Bailout Through

…the plan does nothing to address the lack of capital unless the Treasury overpays for assets. And if that’s the real plan, Congress has every right to balk.
So what should be done? Well, let’s think about how, until Paulson hit the panic button, the private sector was supposed to work this out: financial firms were supposed to recapitalize, bringing in outside investors to bulk up their capital base. That is, the private sector was supposed to cut off the problem at stage 2.

It now appears that isn’t happening, and public intervention is needed. But in that case, shouldn’t the public intervention also be at stage 2 — that is, shouldn’t it take the form of public injections of capital, in return for a stake in the upside?

Let’s not be railroaded into accepting an enormously expensive plan that doesn’t seem to address the real problem..

Housing Wire
U.S. Taxpayers to Bail Out Foreign Debtholders too?

“Participating financial institutions must have significant operations in the U.S., unless the Secretary makes a determination, in consultation with the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, that broader eligibility is necessary to effectively stabilize financial markets,

Are you ready for FEMA Mortgage?

Congress and Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson are working this weekend to hash out details of the proposed $700,000,000,000 bailout during this amazing time in American history.  My brother-in-law is an adjuster for FEMA, spending months away from his home evaluating damaged property across the country.   FEMA Mortgage could be created to essentially do the same thing.

Now that Uncle Sam will be buying bad mortgages, they could utilize FEMA mortgage adjusters to evaluate the borrowers current situation:

  • Can they afford their mortgage payment? 
  • Is this a situation worth modifying their existing loan?
  • Was income over-stated or not verified with the mortgage?
  • Was the property purchased as owner occupied and it’s now an investment property? 
  • Are there signs of mortgage fraud?

Home owners in trouble who have financial ability to stay in their home, would have the opportunity to re-qualify at either a lower rate and/or reduced loan amount with a silent second that would be called due if the home owner sold the property within a certain period of time (similar to State bond programs).   This would be available to home owners who were having difficulty due to an ARM adjusting or perhaps a financial set back that is now resolved (such as temporary loss of employment).    Loan modifications with Uncle Sam owned mortgages would be streamlined, very low cost  and legit.

Home owners who could not re-qualify based on their actual income, may have the opportunity to rent a property at a payment they can afford.  Having property occupied as a rental is better than abandoned–for that home and for the neighborhood.   Perhaps Uncle Sam will start FEMA Property Management…they can even re-use some of the trailers they bought for Huricane Katrina.  

If fraud was used on a mortgage now owned by Uncle Sam, the FEMA Loan Adjuster would determine if it was caused by the borrower or loan originator and proper actions would be taken.

A plan such as this, could provide jobs for out of work Loan Originators (of course they would have to pass the National Licensing requirements) and employ Real Estate Agents, builders and contractors, too.   FEMA Adjusters could also determine which foreclosed properties, owned by Uncle Sam, need repair before it can be resold at a higher value or if they should just be sold “as is”.

Your thoughts?

Thanks for the great time, Zillow!

As one of the presenters put it, last night Zillow took a page from real estate agent’s marketing tools and conducted an “open house.”  A certain number of agents were invited to attend, some mortgage professionals, and there were even invites out to buyers and sellers that frequently are on the site. Part of the open house involved sessions where the attendees could learn more about how Zillow functions – one session for marketing and another for the more technical side of the site.  So, my business partner and I split up to cover as much ground as possible.

For me, the marketing session didn’t produce anything new.  But, I guess I hadn’t realized until being there what a “power user” me and my team are with their site. Somehow I thought that the invites had said that they would be introducing new features, but as far as I could tell it’s stuff that we have found and started using as each new feature was introduced.  Plus, we also had already figured out that syndication sites (like Point2, vFlyer) weren’t the best way to get an individual agent’s info maximized for SEO. Although we do still use syndication sites because the go out to a lot of other sites that we just don’t want to spend the cycles having to re-enter each listing over and over and over.  It is very time consuming.  Gotta love widgets, that’s for sure!

Speaking of technical stuff… I was interested to see the data that they gave about the various sites and the stats for user activity.  Part of what was shown here also filtered over into the conversation at the after-function with regard to Zindexes ( and how that is measured and it’s rate of accuracy.

Afterward there was a soiree down at the Waterfront Grill in their private function locale in the former Rippa’s space.  (I’m curious to know where those photos they had taken will end up…. no, nothing tawdry, just lots of PR stuff) Good times had by all and some great debate between agents and Zillow employees alike.  Thanks to David Gibbons, Drew, Mike, and Scott Huber for all of your discussions with us and for being wonderful hosts along with your other employees.  It was really great to meet all of you and we look forward to seeing what else is “up your sleeve.”

Sitting Shivah for the Financial Sector

For those who have emailed me out of concern, because I have not written a post in over a week, I have taken a minute away from the services to let you all know that I am OK. I little depressed as is to be expected under these conditions, but OK.

Next week’s Catholic Funeral for the Financial Sector will require that all women wear black mantillas. My choice is the one noted below which you can buy for only $24.99 from HeadCoverings by Devorah

WaMu Endgame

Surprise: WaMu is looking for a buyer.  From the New York Times:

Goldman Sachs, which Washington Mutual has hired, started the process several days ago, these people said. Among the potential bidders that Goldman has talked to are Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase and HSBC. But no buyers may materialize. That could force the government to place Washington Mutual into conservatorship, like IndyMac, or find a bridge-bank solution, which was extended to thrifts in the new housing regulations.

Citigroup is also considering an offer, but would likely be able to buy Washington Mutual only if it emerged from a receivership, according to a person close to the situation. JPMorgan is maintaining its posture that it will not bid unless it receives government support, according to another person briefed on the matter.

I’m not so sure that any bank is in shape to purchase WaMu in its current form. Perhaps it could be broken up into smaller pieces. Its deposit base is probably worth more than anything else on its books right now.

I’m sad. I can remember walking into Washington Mutual Savings in Downtown Everett on the corner of Colby and Pacific with my dad to open up a passbook savings account.  I’ve had an account there just about my whole life.  My daughter’s school savings accounts are there.  I know many people who work at WaMu.  I worked at WaMu as a bank teller many years ago under a very smart, savvy woman named Margaret Bradley who was a very fine role model for a young woman like me in the early 1980s.  Washington Mutual was “The Friend of the Family.”  I bought that old commercial line and repeated it for years.

I know. It’s just a bank.  I’ll get over it. 

There are many WaMu employees that live and work here in the Seattle area who had much of their retirement investments within WaMu’s stock options.  Whatever the outcome, this can’t bode well for our employment numbers here in the greater Seattle area.  I’m under the FDIC limit and will keep my accounts open, and will not be moving them to a new bank. I’ll be seeing this through with them. 

This makes me wonder if it will be easier for homeowners to get their short sales and loan modifications approved. 

Wall St Journal: TPG Move Opens Doors for WaMu

Bloomberg: WaMu’s Biggest Shareholder Waives Compensation Pact

Calculated Risk: WaMu For Sale

Seattle Times: With Stock Sinking, WaMu Appears Headed for Sale

Seattle PI: WaMu Puts Itself up For Sale

Get with the times

 

sad_face

I had an newer agent call me the other day, a bit consternated about how to evaluate a property for which his client had requested a CMA.  Sometimes — often — it is hard to evaluate certain properties in this changed/changing market; it can help to get other opinions. 

The conversation went something like this:

Agent: “I have a client who is selling the townhouse I sold him last year.”
Me: “Okay.  Did you find any any good comparable sales?”
Agent:  “Oh yes, there’s an identical unit that just sold in the same complex for the same price my client paid and another one that is on the market for a few thousand dollars more.”
Me:  “Well that helps.  What does that tell you about what your subject property is worth?”
Agent:  “It seems like it’s worth what he paid for the place, maybe a little less.  So should I just add the other closing costs to what he paid and list it for that price?  I’d hate for him to take a loss!”

I know, this seems silly when you read it from the sidelines.  Of course, we have to be honest and direct with our sellers, especially in this market.  Sometimes it’s brutal honesty that clients appreciate the most, and it hurts a lot less than trying do something that can’t be done — like sell this townhome for 10% more what it sold for last year.  So the answer is, price the unit at what the market will bear — which is what the direct comp unit just sold for, or more advisedly, for maybe a few points less.

For years we’ve been the bearers of great news:  “Guess what?  I sold you this little Wallingford bungalow in ’93 for $161,000, and now it’s worth $650,000!”  Sure it was worth maybe $735,000 last May, but still, it sounds pretty good telling your client they have this nearly $500k windfall.  And since ’91, our conversations with sellers have been something similar to that.  But now, times have changed.  This isn’t news to any of RCG’s readers, but it’s really important for agents, for professionals, to deliver the goods:  Clear, honest, and yes, sometimes brutal, information to our clients.