Sound Transit needs your input!

Last fall I was saddened to learn that the greater Puget Sound region voted down the mass transit package that had been put forward for the Pierce, King and Snohomish County areas. While that put a bump in the highway, so to speak, for the transit people it didn’t stop them from moving forward to see what other options could be considered for our area. Transit is a major issue for our continued quality of life in this region and many groups, government, non-profit, and public based are coming together to try and make it more and more of a priority.

It’s an enormous issue when it comes to real estate and it will impact what cities and neighborhoods will thrive over the coming years. Think of it like the railroad towns of the late 1800’s that once the automobile became the major mode of transportation, those towns dwindled to permanent small town status UNLESS they found another way to be relevant. Today, we need a more diverse mix of convenient transit options more similar to places like Washington DC, Portland, New York, Chicago or like our European counterparts in Paris, London, Madrid, or Milan.

The big question here is whether or not the choices that are implemented are ones that the public wants or feels is appropriate. If you want to see what is going on, check out this website at Sound Transit, and start providing your public comments to the conversation.

For my own part, I am proud to be a member of the local REALTOR(R) association and as part of my volunteer time spent with programs they have such as committee meetings, I am also involved in the current opinion panel work that is bringing together our organization with others that are shaping the area – such as city council members, Sound Transit, park departments, non-profit environmental groups, and more. We’re focused on trying to find common ground that we believe will benefit all in the area and transit is a big part of it. I hope you’ll join the discussion too.

Greatest Real Estate Agent in the World

Well, Greatest Real Estate Agent in the World competition is about over, and this is the last post I will write about the contest. My original post has been running at #1 and #2 for most of the competition. At several points during the competition I have had two of the top 10 spots between the post noted and this post.

What we were supposed to learn was that some people are really good at getting attention by writing good content (not that I’m proud of either of my posts on this topic and all the screwing around I’ve done with them). And other people are really good at getting the attention of the Search Engines because they are good at getting the attention of the Search Engines.

In the true spirit of the contest, I’m going to name my chosen winner.

Greatest Real Estate Agent in the World I’m giving to Kevin Tomlinson and his blog efforts as to content, and Brad Caroll of Dakno Marketing who provides the technical support for Kevin’s site and his blog.

Why do I choose them as the winners of Greatest Real Estate Agent in the World? Because I can’t tell which is most responsible for the success of Kevin’s blog.

Is it Kevin’s writing style and good content? Is it Brad’s ability to gain the favor of the SEO God’s through other means? Is it Kevin’s great website that creates what it takes to pull the blog up with it?

Or maybe it’s just because Kevin IS a great agent and so everything he does, he does just as well as he does his real estate activities, including hiring the best people and directing them to their best efforts on his behalf and on behalf of his clients.

And that’s the real success story and the real lesson about SEO placement. It takes a great team. Simply being a great agent is often not enough. Simply being a great blogger is often not enough. Hiring someone to toy around with the Search Engines to bring a mediocre or bad site to the top of the heap, is not going to help you if what readers find at the top of the search is not worth reading, or the agent isn’t worth hiring.

Kevin is the winner because he has it all. No one should have to fight over whether it was Kevin’s talent or Brad’s talent that makes the package work.

It shouldn’t be EITHER content OR SEO knowledge. It should be the best marriage of both worlds.

The Commission-Based Fee Structure: it’s Bad for Buyers

Reduced SOC[This post updated 12/2014 and 3/2016 and 9/2016]

This post is not legal advice. For legal advice, consult an attorney in person, not a blog.

Originally, all real estate agents  represented only the seller. The “listing” agent signed the contract with the seller that entitled the agent to sell the house and earn a commission. This agent worked for and had a duty to the seller, of course. The listing agent informed other agents about the house now available for purchase by posting it on the Multiple Listing Service.

Another agent, the “selling” agent, would see the listing and show it to a potential buyer. Even though the selling agent then assisted the buyer in purchasing the property, she actually — and legally — worked for and owed a duty to the seller only. Upon the sale, the listing agent would split the commission required by the listing contract with the selling agent. After all, they cooperated in making the sale.

The system made sense – least back then – as an efficient way of selling property. Some agents today still look at commissions in this light. As James Melanowski, an agent, said in a recent comment (#20):

There is one commission. I get paid x% to sell your property and with that x% I will do everything in my power to do my job. That may include paying a buyer’s agent, it may not. I may want to pay that agent y%, y-1/2%, or y+1/2% to bring that buyer to the table. The point is, x% is what you pay ME and it is to do with as I please.

Unfortunately, in the old, historical system – echoes of which are still heard today – buyers usually mistakenly believed that “their” agent represented them in the transaction. In reality, “their” agent, the selling agent, worked only for the seller, and the buyers had no representation at all.

With the evolution of consumer protections, many states revised this system. In 1996, Washington passed RCW Chapter 18.86, which by law altered this arrangement. Since then, in Washington a “buyer’s” agent owes a duty only to the buyer, regardless of the source of compensation, while a “seller’s” agent represents only the seller. Notwithstanding this new legal arrangement, the term “selling” agent is still used today by the MLS to describe a buyer’s agent(much to the chagrin of enlightened agents — right, Ardell?).

But if the buyer’s agent now represents the buyer, why is the buyer’s agent still paid by the seller? This alone is enough to create a conflict of interest that could potentially impact the quality of the buyer’s representation (see RPC 1.08(f)).

There are other implications. A buyer selects her agent and works closely with the agent to find and buy a house, an intimate and expensive proposition. The agent works for and owes a duty to the buyer. So shouldn’t the buyer have the ability to decide how much to pay the agent? Under the current system, based on an outdated and no-longer-applicable model of representation, it is the seller — not the buyer — who ultimately determines the buyer’s agent’s compensation. This leaves the buyer with no ability to match the fee paid with the services provided. Yet most buyers now do their own initial home search themselves on the internet.

In addition, agents can and do represent both buyers and sellers. Thus, they have a vested interest in a system that promises a significant commission for both sides of the transaction. With flat fee listing and FSBO, the listing agent commission has come under increasing price pressure, and indeed it is not uncommon for listing agents to reduce their commission from the previously “standard” 3% (often times as long as the seller will also use the same agent for the following purchase, thus allowing the agent a subsequent and “full” 3% commission).

The “selling” agent commission (SOC), however, is immune from such price pressure given the current business model. Indeed, as Kary Krismer, another agent, said in a comment (#31) to a recent post in reference to a buyer’s agent’s commission of 2.5%, rather than the standard 3%:

Well, it’s not that it’s a waste, but it’s not a wise decision at all. We’ll show buyers 2.5% properties, and have actually had a number of transactions in them. But there are some agents that won’t, or that subconsciously might down-talk the property.

Agents may argue that they are “entitled” — or, more accurately, earn — a full 3% given the time and efforts they invest in a sale. But that alone cannot justify this failure to show properties with a slightly lesser commission. After all, even 2.5% is a reasonable — to say the least — paycheck given the average house price (2.5% of $400k is $10,000). Thus, whether consciously or subconsciously, a significant number of agents fail to best serve their clients’ interests (by showing them ALL suitable properties and giving honest and accurate advice about each) simply because they won’t make as much money.

While that is not absolutely wrong, at a minimum the buyer should be aware of this “limited” representation. How many buyer’s agents — who discriminate against SOCs of less than the “full” 3% — have that conversation with their clients? So consciously or not, brokers provide inferior services to buyers where sellers offer less than a 3% SOC.

That said, there is some early downward price pressure on the SOC, thanks to the Seattle startup scene. Surefield, a licensed broker and member of the NWMLS, now offers a $2000 SOC. It is able to do so thanks to its patented 3D virtual tour technology that powers its listings. This “virtual” tour makes it easier to sell the house, so Surefield offers a much lower buyer’s agent’s commission.

There is the “granddaddy” of Seattle startup real estate firms, Redfin. It’s been around for more than 10 years, plugging away at the issue and in the process making it clear that sellers don’t necessarily need to offer the “full” 3% SOC. Although the amount has dropped significantly over the years, Redfin still rebates a portion of the SOC to its client at closing.

And there used to be a Seattle real estate firm, Houses,Direct (formerly Added Equity Real Estate, formerly Quill Realty), which was at the forefront of change. Quill withdrew from its local Multiple Listing Service in June of 2015. Since then it was the only real estate firm in Western WA to sell houses without offering a buyer’s agent commission. Although that iteration didn’t work too well, it is clear that Seattle startups are leading the charge on lowering the SOC!

Finally, because the commission is a transaction cost, it stands to reason that a decrease in that cost will benefit either buyers or sellers or both (either prices remain the same with less costs and more money to the seller, or prices are reduced to reflect the reduction in costs, or both). With the current system, there is virtually no incentive to reduce this cost — or, for that matter even an ability to do so, unless the buyer is willing to forego an agent and either use an attorney or self-represent. Given what is at stake, an attorney is the prudent choice. Some lawyers are marketing themselves to buyers who want to buy without an agent in order to save the 3% SOC.

So, the current commission-based fee structure, based on an outdated and now inapplicable model, leads to increased transaction costs (than what would be available in a truly competitive market) and a decreased quality of buyer’s representation. I’d say that’s bad for buyers. But changes are on the horizon.

Image above © Iqoncept | Dreamstime.comCommission Percent Sign Ball Earning Bonus Pay Rate Photo

Spring Projects: sprucing up that old cracked walkway or patio?

Note: there other things more interesting to me than escrow/real estate issues, so hope this topic does not tread on other contributors expertise.

It is Spring (believe it or not) and the Everett Home Show just wrapped up over the weekend. This is the time of year where home improvement projects start to come to the forefront. One of the larger projects last Spring was to remove our 30+ year old drab, cracked walkway and driveway apron in front of the garage. We obtained bids to install either a stone/paver walkway (Hardscape) or new poured concrete. For our budget, time constraints, and do-it-yourself experience, we ended up going with a stamped concrete walkway.

I rented a jackhammer and broke up the entire walkway and driveway apron. It was tough work. We liked the stamped concrete patterns that we observed visiting new home developments, home shows and doing research online. After sifting through all the information, we took quite a while to make a decision on the color and blend we envisioned. It is nerve-racking because if we were unhappy with the patterns and color after the concrete pour, we were going to have to live with it.

A significant amount of prep work had to take place because there is a lot of water run-off from the road adjacent to our home and the topography slopes towards the house. You can also see remnants of the perimeter drainage system I installed and connected to an existing drain system.

Project cost: about $6,000.00 including my expense in removing the old walkway & driveway apron myself. Drain system and retaining walls (Stacked Wall supplied by Pacific Stone Company in Everett) were a separate expense, but we did do it ourselves.

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Hope this project provides inspiration and ideas for people thinking about their outside projects!

This year’s Spring (I hope) project entails a new asphalt driveway from the street to the apron & walkway. I’ve also been informed that I need to remodel the guest bathroom. One project at a time.

Sunday Night Stats – King County

I think I said enough earlier this week, so tonight it’s just this week’s stats.
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King County Residential Sales

Active/For Sale – 10,629- UP 203 – MPPSF Under $1.6M – $227 (Over $1.6M MPPSF $500)

In Escrow – 2,640 – DOWN 68 – DOM 44 – MPPSF $213.50

Closed YTD – 4,330- UP 326 – DOM 52 – MPPSF $222

King Conty Condo Sales

Active/For Sale – 3,706 – UP 22 – DOM 56 – MPPSF $324

In Escrow – 871 – down – DOM 40 – MPPSF $306

Closed YTD – 1,397 – UP 92 – DOM 50 – MPPSF $295

“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.

Predictions: helpful or counterproductive?

The dialogue between commenters has been interesting to read on Ardell’s most recent post about predictions.

Is this a helpful or counterproductive prediction?

“So, don’t be swayed by media reports of a ‘disastrous housing economy.’ Take the long-term view and be confident that your home will continue to appreciate in value. And know that if you buy a home today, in seven years it will be worth a lot more.”

– Geoff Wood, CEO Windermere Real Estate
(Quote taken from the Spring Quarter 2008 of ‘Inhabit,’ The best of the Pacific Northwest magazine) Published by the Seattle Times.

I don’t necessarily disagree with Geoff’s sentiment and I understand his overall point within the larger context of the quote**—I just took the last paragraph quote from his ad titled “Gaining Perspective on the Real Estate Market”. Seven years is a long time. But this is one heck of a prediction, no bones about it.

**his use of a “Casino” and “gambling” analogy was terribly ironic, intended or not.

I have no idea if this was solely a local ad or if they ran it or a similar one in other markets Windermere has offices as well.

Agents are resources in so many aspects for their clients. Consumers turn to them for valuable feedback, for information, data, suggestions AND ADVICE, which includes feedback on where the real estate market is trending. In so many ways, they are advocates whom consumers want to trust, but for a variety of reasons find it difficult. Building and gaining trust does not begin with “I don’t know where the market is heading, beats me.”

You have to give Geoff Wood credit. At least you know where he stands.

Rivertrail Townhomes in Redmond

This is a special request for anyone having any floorplans for the townhomes in Rivertrail in Redmond. I’m doing a thorough analysis of the entire community. Different phases. Different models.

Seems most agents think “The Springfield Model” is the most “desirable” floorplan. But it seems to me that various models suit different households and location within the community is first and foremost the priority.

Price per square foot for one car garage townhomes vs. two car garage townhomes is becoming a wider spread.

I have both a buyer client and a soon to be listed seller client in Rivertrail. I’d appreciate anyone who is willing to share floorplans shooting me an email. I’d be happy to drop by and make a copy and return your originals.

Your help appreciated!

RCG Intermission to bring you ……

…..2″ of snow and rising in Snohomish County. Ummm, isn’t it April 18th, 2008, not mid February? Stevens Pass ski area closed a wee bit too early! If you can make it to our place, the hot chocolate is brewing, the fireplace is on and the kids are heading out to play and we have NO last minute escrow signings tonight! Yeah!

april snow2

Chrome and Teak are thinking….”you have got to be kidding us!”

Avoid Seattle's nasty traffic jams

Google is now predicting traffic in the future to help you avoid nasty Seattle traffic on freeways, but that is nothing compared to…

Microsoft’s Clear Flow doesn’t just tell you that traffic usually sucks on Thursdays at 5:30 (because if you’ve driven on I5 twice at rush hour, you already know that). It tells you the best route to take and it includes side street speeds in it’s analysis. It doesn’t leave it to your wits to find the fastest route – it tells you the fastest route. It is one of the smartest real products the company has created in years. Now if it didn’t ask me to finesse the address when I type in a street address and a zip code, it would hands-down amazing.

Seattle Real Estate – 2008

Ardell  s Crystal BallLet’s take out the Crystal Ball and a mountain of stats and make some predictions for 2008.

Here are my predictions for residential (not condo) sales in 2008:

16,500 will sell by year end.

3,583 sold in the first quarter (fact not prediction)

4,455 will sell in the second quarter

4,950 will sell in the third quarter

3,927 will sell in the last quarter

Sales of residential property peaked as to volume in the 1st quarter of 2006. We have been in a “volume down – prices up” cycle from the 1st quarter of 2006 through most of the 3rd quarter of 2007.

A little history regarding volume:

2001 – 22,425, 2002 – 23,921, 2003 – 28,804, 2004 – 31,091, 2005 – 32,821, 2006 – 27,816, 2007 – 23,375, 2008 prediction 16,500.

Volume started dropping in the 1st quarter of 2006, but the condo market picked up that drop to some extent until the 3rd quarter of 2007. So prices continued up as volume declined.

A little history regarding prices:

2001 – $252,000 to $269,000, 2002 – $269,000 to $277,000, 2003 – $277,000 to $300,000, 2004 – $300,000 to $328,000, 2005 – 328,000 to $389,000, 2006 – $389,000 to $439,000

last quarter of 2006 – $439,000
first quarter of 2007 – $445,000
second quarter of 2007 – $470,000
third quarter of 2007 – $469,000
fourth quarter of 2007 – $439,000
first quarter of 2008 – $435,000 (same as 3rd quarter of 2006)

Prices continued up through the 2nd quarter of 2007, continued up in the first part of the 3rd quarter and headed down in the tail end of the 3rd quarter ending at pretty flat.

My price predictions are:

$429,000 for the 2nd quarter of 2008
$400,000 for the 4th quarter of 2008

You guess the 3rd quarter.

So volume peaked in the first quarter of 2006 and prices peaked during the third quarter of 2007.

Will be interesting to see where actual compares to my predictions as we head into the 2nd quarter of 2008. If the darned sun doesn’t come out and stay out, 2nd quarter may fall short.

I think if we hit around 16,500 by year end, we will have bottomed out as to volume, but not price. I think prices will be down 15% from July of 2007 to end of December 2008. Volume will level out and prices will continue to fall.

I predict that agents will think I’ve been too tough on these market predictions and the general public will think I’ve been too soft and 5% will say I caused it all to happen 🙂

“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.