I need to take a look at “affordable housing” issues after a meeting I had this week on the subject, and in preparation for a meeting I have next week on the subject. I’m primarily looking at Kirkland and comparing Kirkland to places people would move to from there.
While that is not the purpose of this post, this post will also give you some insight as to why there are “Bubble Blogs”. Many of the young people who want to raise a family without moving to Tennessee, are impacted by the same factors I am raising in this post. There was a time when I could (and did) tell them to buy condos and use the appreciation for downpayment on a home. No longer the case in the near distant future. Where are home prices going? Well strip out exotic financing, including FHA 60% backend, and look at realistic financing, and you will immediately know what the “bubbleheads” already knew. Prices have to come down considerably before a young family needing 3 bedrooms and 1,500 square feet can afford to live here.
Median incomes in the last census back in 2000 were $60,000 per household and $73,000 per family in Kirkland, but only 23% of households had children under 18 living with them. The Powers That Be take this to mean they need more affordable housing for 1 and 2 person households, since that represents over 75% of the residents. I disagree. It is my contention that young people in condos move out of Kirkland once they have a child, because affordable homes for families are more prevalent elsewhere. To me that means we need more housing for young people with children, otherwise you get overweighted in young professionals, wealthy empty nesters and “affordable housing” for lower earning singles. That doesn’t diversify the base, and expand the number of households with children under 18 living in the household, up from 23%.
Rather than up the 2000 census incomes, I’m going to call median income $65,000 for a family, as in we want to attract that which we do not have. Also, that number looks like the King County median and more appropriate for this study. I’m going to use 4X annual income plus 20% down as the barometer for housing price and minimum 3 bedrooms and 1,500 sf.
$65,000 times 4 equals a loan amount of $260,000 which is $325,000 with 20% down. This is why the presidential candidates are incorrect when they say we have to get home values back UP. They need to recognize that home values accelerated to the point were only Exotic Loans would make them attainable. So a wish to shore up property values is like a wish for Exotic Loans to make a comeback.
Let’s do an FHA 31/43 ratio double check on that. 31% of Gross Monthly Income of $65,000 is a monthly payment of $1,680. Lets back off $300 of that for taxes and insurance and call that payment 1,380 for principal and interest. That gives us a loan amount of $230,000 plus 20% down is about $290,000. So affordable housing for a family earning $65,000 would be priced at $290,000 to $325,000.
Now let’s look at property with at least 3 bedrooms and $1,500 square feet. For this purpose I am using the Tax Records vs. the MLS. as I am looking for what exists vs. what is for sale or sold. In the system I am using, the assessments for 2009 taxes are not in place, so I am using 1.17 times the assessment used for 2008 tax purposes. That means we are looking for property in the County records assessed between $245,000 and $280,000 with 3 bedrooms and a minimum of 1,500 sf.
Kirkland 98033 comes up with 39 properties, many of which appear to be apartments at the same address.
Kirkland 98034 has 54 all centered in the same vicinity.
Bothell 98011 has 35
Kenmore has 64
Bellevue has 31
Redmond 98052 has 25
Duvall has 53
Monroe has 113
Bothell in Snohomish County vs. King has 76
Mill Creek has 34
Issaquah has 27
Sammamish has 20
Renton has over 1,000
Auburn has over 1,000
Kent has over 1,000
I don’t know how many over 1,000, because there is a pre-set max on the search function. But you can readily see where a family making $65,000 a year working in Bellevue, Redmond or Kirkland needs to go to get just 3 bedrooms and 1,500 sf of living space. I didn’t put any bath requirments or lot size requirements or even separate condos out. Just 3 bedrooms and 1,500 sf and look what your money doesn’t get you.
Seattle has over 1,000 of which
16 are in 98115
28 are in 98103
9 are in 98117
Shoreline has 170
So when you look at Joe Sixpack and his story, and wonder how he got in over his head, remember that very few homes or even condos exist for a family making $65,000 a year within a reasonable distance to where they are curently renting and working. So before you blame Joe for his demise, take into consideration that he really didn’t have options available in the marketplace that would have made for a more conservative decision by his family. This not based on “what is for sale” but “what exists”.
Areas that have housing that fits the $65,000 income, also have lower median incomes.
If the Powers That Be representing Affordable Housing concerns only target 1 and 2 person households, because that is the constituency, then they are doing nothing to solve the REAL problem of “Affordable Housing”. We need more affordable households for 3 or more persons to impact the issue of “Affordable Housing.
If Kirkland only added 20 to 25 of these, they would be increasing affordable housing from 84 to 104 or 109, which would be a increasing affordable housing by 25%! Adding more one and two bedroom units, or increasing the affordability of small one and two bedroom units, continues to force young families out of the demographic.
I was told “but the whole REGION has primarily 1 and 2 bedroom households” so that is why we are targeting that demographic. I said look for WHY the region is primarily 1 and 2 bedroom households…and fix that why.
I need to look at a few more things in preparation for my meeting, if you don’t mind tagging along with me for a few more minutes. I’m raising the assessed value to $280,000 -$375,000, which is like raising the sale price from $325,000 – $440,000 and I’m adding built since 1990 to see how the cities are progressing toward adding affordable housing. It is my contention that Redmond via newer 3 bedroom townhomes is outpacing Kirkland. I need to test my perception.
Kirkland 98033 – 104 (several of these are owned buy builders and developers. Not sure what to make of that)
Kirkland 98034 – 53
Redmond 98052 – 147 (it is true that a lot of that is Rivertrail, which is where my perception comes from to some extent. I need to research how that much land close to Downtown Redmond was available to build Rivertrail. Wait a sec…no I don’t…it’s in a flood zone.
Belleuve – 194 (94 in 98005 – 67 in 98006 – 17 in 98008 – 15 in 98007 -3 in 98004
Seattle 98115 – 44
Seattle 98103 – 84
Seattle 98117 – 58
Shoreline – 219
Lynnwood – over 1,000
Bothell Snohomish – 588
Bothell King – 186
Issaquah – 669
Duvall – 428
Sammamish – 342
Kenmore – 173
Woodinville – 161
It’s about land values. Thinking out of the box, if everyone on a 22,000 to 33,000 square foot lot was allowed to keep their house and shortplat off a couple of 5,000 sf parcels and put up two 1,700 square foot homes…
Thank you for letting me think out loud. Your thoughts appreciated.
P.S. for Jillayne 🙂
Edmonds – 35 for the first group assessed at $245,000 to $280,000, 322 in the 2nd group built since 1990 and assessed at $280,000 to $375,000. hmmm am I missing something by not looking under $245,000 assessed values with no age range? 23 in Edmonds, Kirkland 62, 98052 – 120, Bellevue 43, Shoreline 68, Kenmore 51, Bothell King – 47, Duvall 27, Bothell Snohomish 37