Tag Archives: equity

The First in a Series of Fannie and Freddie Bailouts

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The rumors floated on Friday regarding Fannie and Freddie turned out to be true.  This first bailout proposal, released a few hours ago, has three parts.  I say “first” because there is no way that this is going to be enough to save what’s headed our way nor will this be the only time the government will need to “bailout” F&F.

The U.S. Treasury plans to seek approval for a temporary increase in the line of credit granted to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They will also seek authority to buy equity in either company, and the Federal Reserve voted to allow the New York Fed to loan F&F money, if needed, giving F&F access to the Federal Reserve’s discount window.

The Wall Street Journal says the U.S. Treasury and The Federal Reserve are doing this mainly to boost confidence in F&F, not necessarily because any of this is needed, which to me seems to be a flat out lie.

The weekend move means that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who has been steadily accumulating authority as the U.S. grapples with the financial crisis, will have even more power. The Treasury envisions the Fed working with the mortgage giants’ regulator to help prevent situations that could be a risk for the entire financial system. The move builds on Treasury’s broader goal of remaking financial regulation to give the Fed broader influence over financial-market stability.

I’m not sure if we’re suppose to be happy or scared at the thought of Ben Bernanke accumulating more power.  Maybe what’s really going on is some preemptive planning due to known or unknown possibilities that tomorrow’s auction of Freddie Mac debt doesn’t go well.

The Sunday move was designed in part to head off fears about Monday’s auction of Freddie Mac notes. While small, the planned sale had assumed an outsized importance as a test of investor confidence. Freddie should be able to find buyers for its three- and six-month notes, market analysts said. But there is a chance that some financial institutions and investors may demand higher-then-usual yields.

Similar Freddie and Fannie notes that are currently outstanding yield around 2.5%. If weak demand for Freddie’s auction leads to sharply higher yields on the new notes, that could trigger a selloff across a wide range of debt issued by the companies, some analysts said. But most said such a scenario is unlikely.

I’ve been glued to the web, the radio, and my phone since Friday evening reading, listening, and talking about this with friends and colleagues. If the federal government choses to provide (the implied) government backing for bondholders, then the United States increases our national debt by 5 trillion dollars which would have a profoundly negative impact on the value of the dollar and potentially bankrupting the U. S. economy. If the federal government chooses to do nothing and F&F are forced to mark their portfolio closer to market value and sell off assets to accumulate capital, then the true value of what’s in the bag becomes known. The secret will be out and now nobody will be interested in buying our Residential Mortgage Backed Securities, the market will know the true value of the loans currently being held by banks all over the U.S., mortgage lending slows way down, interest rates go way up, and the housing market goes cliff diving.

It seems to me that with this first bailout proposal (I am preparing for more bailouts as should you) everything is just going to be delayed as long as possible, taking us down further into a deeper recession step-by-step.

This bailout proposal is not enough. We have only just begun to see foreclosures rise. We still have the rest of 2008 to get through, when another round of pay option ARMS originated in 2006 begins to adjust, and through 2009 when the ARMs originated in 2007 adjust. Defaults and foreclosures are far from over.

There was a guy who predicted the demise of Fannie and Freddie back in 2006.  His proposal is that we nationalize Fannie and Freddie, quit pretending that they’re a private company, and restructure the debt, thereby forcing the bondholders to take a haircut.

Sniglet asks an interesting question (comment 123): “So what happens to the shareholders? Do any of these plans ensure that there is no dilution of equity if any form of bail-out were to occur? If the GSE shareholders aren’t protected then we could see a complete abandonment of the financial system by investors. Who will want to buy shares in financial firms if the government isn’t going to ensure their investments remain safe?”

From everything I’ve read over the weekend, the government likely will not protect shareholder equity.  Whether or not they should is up for debate.

Update on 'Fix and Flip'

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Last Thursday night at the monthly REIA meeting, Than Merrill from A&E’s Flip this House presented an informative glance into his working business model. Than does more than 120 flips a year at an average of $27,000 each.  Although he just started 3 years ago, Than is making millions using a system that he partially nabbed from other fix and flip coaches and partially created himself.  Than acknowledged up front that he would have something to sell, otherwise he says there would be no point in his flying out here from Conneticut to talk to a real estate investment club.  And sell he did.  What my husband and I heard prompted us to attend an all day (9 to later than 6!) on Sunday.  The cost was relatively inexpensive and anything for more education, right?

In case you’re wondering who attends a real estate investing club, I noticed a lot of people with jobs looking for a way to become self employed, and I also found many who had already made that transition using real estate investment as monthly income.  Others are there to build a retirement using real estate investing as a vehicle. Some using sefl-directed vehicles and others doing 1031’s to defer taxes. 

Finding the right investment opportunity is key to good real estate investing. The investments we have been buying are properties that can be subdivided or converted to condos or in some other way create equity through development.  I hate fix and flips because there have been such a small margin in them because we didn’t knowi how to find below market inventory consistently.  We only do the fix and flips if we can increase the value of an adjacent lot or new construction home we sell by increasing the value of the original home. 

However, working with distressed sellers to find below market inventory is a business that is very specialized and can by itself be a full time occupation.  And there are a lot of investment buyers looking to buy discounted properties.  Finding these discounted properties has always eluded me. We have tried the foreclosure route and bought on the court house steps, but too many investors were chasing these properties and they still got bid up, squeezing that profit margin.  Then there are title issues and the fact that you can’t really inspect the properties among other things, like needing cash!

Than has been successful finding these sellers and I wanted to know how. He has multiple sources and mutliple campaigns aimed at finding anyone willing to sell at a discount. His program is a highly developed marketing and operation.  We were impressed, So, we decided to invest in the systems thinking that if he can make them work, so can we (I know, pretty egotistical). The cost of the program is pretty reasonable, the bigger cost being the time to attend a one week boot camp and implement the multiple marketing systems. But we’re looking forward to it and hope soon to have a source of ‘cents on the dollar’ real estate to offer our buyers.  Keep tuned.

BTW, still nothing definitive on the Contractor’s issue, i.e., an owner needing a contractor’s license to perform work on real estate prior to a sale if within one year. We’re all waiting for clarification.