# Sunday Night Stats – Where's the market heading?

Tonight I want to get an idea of where the market is heading as we go into July, as to prices.  I’m going to bulk together some Zip Codes that I personally follow, to have a large enough area to be meaningful, and yet zero in on local at the same time.

I’m getting the data as I am typing, so I have no idea how the numbers will fall.  We’ll find out together.

First Group: 98033, 98052, 98004, 98005, 98007 and 98008 on a combined basis.

Residential:

In January of 2008: median Asking Price of homes sold was \$652,450 and the median Sold Price of those same homes was \$625,000.  Median days on market of those sold homes was 68 days and 27.66% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = \$267.66

Lets jump to May 2008 and see where the market went by that time from the beginning of the year.  Median Asking Price \$643,500.  Median Sold Price \$630,000.  Median Days on Market 41 and 38.28% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = \$272.72

June 2008: median Asking Price \$710,000.  median sold price \$690,000. Median days on market 61 and 33.58% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = \$277.10

July month to date: Median Asking Price \$650,000.  median sold price \$639,000.  Median days on market 50 and 30.92% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = \$253.57.  Median type of house was a 4 bedroom 2 1/2 bath 2,520 sf home.

Some pretty large homes are in escrow with the median square footage of all homes in escrow at 2,660 and a medain price per square foot of \$262.20.  Of course that \$262.20 is asking price and not sold price, so prices are trending down from July 1 to present.

Let’s compare that to June of 2007: Median Asking Price \$699,000.  Median Sold Price \$685,000.  Median days on market 21 and 61.09% of homes sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = \$292.73.  Median type of house was a 4 bedroom 2 1/2 bath 2,340 sf home.

Interesting July stats so far.  The size of home is larger, the price is lower.  More home for less money as I said last week.  Very Interesting.  But the numbers are so different from May and June. Fewer houses sold quickly.  This data is worth tracking week to week, especially as we head into fall.

Second Group Seattle 98115 and 98103 on a combined basis excluding townhomes (townhomes on Eastside automatically not included for the most part, as on The Eastside townhomes are condos and not residential). Trying to keep this apples to apples.

In January of 2008: median Asking Price of homes sold was \$540,000 and the median Sold Price of those same homes was \$522,500  Median days on market of those sold homes was 51 days and 29.57% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = \$253.64

Lets jump to May 2008 and see where the market went by that time from the beginning of the year.  Median Asking Price \$595,000.  Median Sold Price \$580,000.  Median Days on Market 20 and 61.97% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = \$277.51

June 2008: median Asking Price \$550,000.  median sold price \$546,000. Median days on market 29 and 54,02% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = \$265.04

July month to date: Median Asking Price \$567,450.  median sold price \$553,450.  Median days on market 23 and 56.90% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = \$261.67.  Median type of house was a 3 bedroom 1 3/4 bath 2,115 sf home.

Let’s compare that to June of 2007: Median Asking Price \$567,000.  Median Sold Price \$569,500.  Median days on market 13 and 75.93% of homes sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = \$273.79.  Median type of house was a 3 bedroom 1 3/4 bath 2,080 sf home.

The median asking price of all pending sales is \$535,000 and the median square footage is 2,085.  Looks like better “deals” are in escrow as we speak at \$256.59 MPPSF as to ASKING prices with that number to be pared down further as to sold prices.

Unless someone asks for the regular weekly King County Stats, I’ll post them over on my blog tomorrow.  It’s been a long, back-breaking day for me.  I was more interested in finding out where the market was heading, than posting overall King County since last Sunday.  But I will post them on my blog tomorrow for the benefit of those who have been charting them on Excel Spreadsheets.

Goodnight!

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You can find the regular weekly stats here.

# Sound Transit needs your input!

Last fall I was saddened to learn that the greater Puget Sound region voted down the mass transit package that had been put forward for the Pierce, King and Snohomish County areas. While that put a bump in the highway, so to speak, for the transit people it didn’t stop them from moving forward to see what other options could be considered for our area. Transit is a major issue for our continued quality of life in this region and many groups, government, non-profit, and public based are coming together to try and make it more and more of a priority.

It’s an enormous issue when it comes to real estate and it will impact what cities and neighborhoods will thrive over the coming years. Think of it like the railroad towns of the late 1800’s that once the automobile became the major mode of transportation, those towns dwindled to permanent small town status UNLESS they found another way to be relevant. Today, we need a more diverse mix of convenient transit options more similar to places like Washington DC, Portland, New York, Chicago or like our European counterparts in Paris, London, Madrid, or Milan.

The big question here is whether or not the choices that are implemented are ones that the public wants or feels is appropriate. If you want to see what is going on, check out this website at Sound Transit, and start providing your public comments to the conversation.

For my own part, I am proud to be a member of the local REALTOR(R) association and as part of my volunteer time spent with programs they have such as committee meetings, I am also involved in the current opinion panel work that is bringing together our organization with others that are shaping the area – such as city council members, Sound Transit, park departments, non-profit environmental groups, and more. We’re focused on trying to find common ground that we believe will benefit all in the area and transit is a big part of it. I hope you’ll join the discussion too.

# Seattle Area Appreciation

Brian Brady asked: “Off topic but I wanted to ask you a question, Ardell. Has Seattle been a rising market from Feb, 2005 through today?”

It would have been a lot easier to answer if you hadn’t said February 2005 🙂 I could have just said yes. But I remember the day. It was June 15, 2005. I could feel it. I could taste it. I could smell it. The ground was swelling. You could put your ear on the ground and hear it coming! LOL I happened to be in a complex called Sixty-01, which has its own idiosyncrases that I won’t go into since you are out of State, Brian. But here’s some stats to prove my blood boiling was on target. Hindsight is easy. Feeling it coming is an artform. I’m using Sixty-01 because I was there that day and also because it has a lot of “same product”/apples to apples for straight appreciation comparisons. They are all practically identical 2 bedroom – 1.5 bath townhomes in the stats below.
07/09/03 – \$100,000

11/24/03 – \$ 95,000

08/12/04 – \$128,950

08/24/04 – \$129,500

02/18/05 – \$128,950

05/03/05 – \$123,000

06/20/05 – \$131,450

07/07/05 – \$127,000

All of those were in contract before June 15. On June 15th one came on market with an asking price of \$137,950. I practically begged a poor woman to get an offer in within an hour of it hitting the market, to grab it at full price. I could feel it in my bones! The prices were going to move right now! She could get it at full price today! But she couldn’t get her brain around it. She wanted to make an offer based on the average of the comps at \$127,000. I was beside myself. I knew getting that townhome at \$137,950 on that first day was going to be the best move she ever made. But I couldn’t convince her. Five days later it bid out and sold at \$148,000. And here’s what happened after that.

07/19/05 – \$148,000

07/22/05 – \$167,950

07/29/05 – \$166,000

11/29/05 – \$178,950

03/30/06 – \$177,000

06/07/06 – \$205,450 (list at \$199,900)

07/11/06 – \$205,000

08/25/06 – \$227,500

09/13/06 – \$235,000

11/01/06 – \$245,000

01/17/07 – \$252,500

New on Market \$269,900

So Brian, rephrase the question and ask me if it has been going up since 6/15/05, and I can answer yes. February 05 through June 05, not as much. I’ll have to do a new townhome comparison in Ballard to confirm Eastside vs. Seattle proper. Hard to find “like kind” in Seattle as there are very few “like kind” comparisons except splits and townhomes. Many of the homes were built in the early 1900s through 1930, and are all unique structures with massive modifications since 1905. But I’m pretty sure the stats will be about the same. Kirkland Condos…same story but harder to find “like kind” these days as newer equals higher ceilings, so “like kind” harder to track.

# If you thought “Zestimates” were off, try RealEstateABC.com’s Value Tools

Announced with lots of fanfare on Inman today about New home-valuation site rivals Zillow. Just went to check it out and it valued my home at \$618,000 compared to Zillow’s Zestimate of \$1.12 Million. Hmm..just a slight margin of difference there. Inman’s blog site covers the ABC Value tool as “Zillow is old news“.

Personaly, while neither is quite accurate (I think Zesitmates have been covered enough already), I’ll take the old news over the new player on the block. They seem to miss some major value factors like..oh about 50ft of waterfront. All-in-all I think these services make interesting discussion points for our clients but it will be some time before they are on the money.

Robert

# New-home sales take a tumble

The Seattle Times reports that new home sales are dropping nationally:

New-home sales fell by the biggest amount in almost nine years last month while home prices declined for a fourth straight month, raising concerns that the once high-flying housing market could be in for a rougher-than-expected landing.

The Commerce Department reported Friday that sales of new single-family homes dropped by 10.5 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 1.08 million homes.

It was the second straight monthly decline after a 5.3 percent fall in January, and marked the biggest one-month drop since April 1997.