About ARDELL

ARDELL is a Managing Broker with Better Properties METRO King County. ARDELL was named one of the Most Influential Real Estate Bloggers in the U.S. by Inman News and has 33+ years experience in Real Estate up and down both Coasts, representing both buyers and sellers of homes in Seattle and on The Eastside. email: ardelld@gmail.com cell: 206-910-1000

Are you “making an offer” or buying a house?

soldBuyer Beware of Real Estate “lingo”. The soft language of “making an offer” is really leading you to sign a binding contract. For some this comes as no surprise. But for others who may think they are simply making an offer, and later deciding whether or not they really want to buy the house, this is very important. If the seller signs your offer without any changes, you are in a binding contract to purchase that house.

An agent can pretty much tell what is happening when the buyer is signing the contract. That is why I think all contracts should be signed in person, in front of the agent, and not via fax or e-signing. If they are only paying attention to the offer price, signing quickly, and not asking questions about or reading the 10 or more attached pages to “the offer”, it becomes fairly evident that they are thinking they are flushing out the “true” price vs. the asking price from the seller. Not so. Another clue is if the “offeror” is asking how they get their Earnest Money back, before signing the offer. In real estate you quickly move from making an offer to actually buying THAT house, in many cases. Once the seller signs that “offer” you are quickly pushed into the queue toward closing via the escrow process that ensues.

The key is not simply to leave yourself a bunch of legal outs, but to make sure that you really ARE going to buy that house, unless new information suggests otherwise. You should not be cancelling “on inspection” because you decided not to buy the house because of the street it is on, unless you learned something new about that street (from the inspector) AFTER you made the offer. You can, but you shouldn’t. You should consider that the seller is thinking that you really do intend to buy his house, based on what you could readily see prior to making the offer. Making an offer is not really a “maybe I will buy it”. Making an offer is indicating that you ARE buying it, unless new information that was unavailable at time of offer comes forth prior to closing, and during the due diligence period of the contract.

Technically you can lose your Earnest Money if you say “I changed my mind about buying a house” when you ask to cancel “on the home inspection”. Well, let’s change that to you SHOULD lose your Earnest Money if you are cancelling merely because you changed your mind, or because you didn’t realize when you made the “offer” that you were actually agreeing to buy the house. Remember, you are causing the seller to REMOVE the home from market. You are pulling the property OFF of the public portals. You should not be doing that simply to have more time to think about whether or not your really want to buy it.

Making an offer means you want to buy that house. An offer to purchase is not intended to be used simply to prevent other offers from coming in, while you think about whether or not you want to buy that house.

Buy Now or be Priced Out Forever!

I once heard that an Ocean Front property could have been purchased for $70,000 back in the 70’s. That property is over $4 Million dollars today. If I could turn back time…I would buy that. Not to make money on it. To own it. To enjoy it. For generations of my children’s children to enjoy.

This afternoon I will be at a home inspection of a house my clients are buying for slightly less than $300,000. The wife cried when the seller accepted their offer. It’s the kind of house some people would turn their nose up at and say “I’d rather rent”. But I can’t help but think of how my children in L.A. would celebrate being able to buy a house like this, just as my clients are. Having a yard for the kids to play in. Buying most any house for $300,000 or less is just not an attainable objective for many people who want and need to live close to where they work.

Many homes this year could be had for $100,000 to $150,000 less than in 2007-2008. This has been a great year for some of my clients who could not buy a home last year.

“Buy now or be priced out forever” is a phrase that is often joked about…but…sometimes it’s true.

How much is your credit score damaged by ?

FICODid you know that if you have a credit score of 780 or higher, you might damage your score more from a single 30 day late payment, than a 680 score person might get dinged for a Foreclosure? Sad but true. Read it and weep.

Hat Tip to Jay Thompson’s “The Phoenix Real Estate Guy”.I’m sure this chart will anger a lot of people with high FICO scores. Best I can attempt to explain this is Richard Gere will likely get a lot more flack if he spit on the pavement, than a homeless person might :). Or better yet, Tiger Woods will clearly get a lot more flack for his misbehavior than your next door neighbor.

Personally I think the Country would be better served if someone CHANGED the system vs. simply requiring lenders to EXPLAIN how it works. I screamed aloud the day risk based pricing via credit scoring passed. But people looked at me like I had two heads. I wish more people were screaming with me that day…

How much home can you afford?

There are few things more important to me than a home buyer being able to qualify themselves, vs. taking anyone else’s word for the answer to “How Much Home Can You Afford?” Since I am a real estate agent and not a mortgage professional, I like to post a laymen’s view at least a couple of times a year on this topic. This simplistic approach should be any potential homebuyer’s first step in “the process”. I also think that any Buyer’s Agent should go through this detail with their clients before assisting them in making an offer on a house, so consider this an agent tutorial post as well.

There are many easy to use Mortgage Calculators like this one on Zillow. But just as you should know that 6 times 3 is 18 without needing to use a calculator, you should know WHY the online mortgage calculator is spitting out a number. If you know that 6 times 3 is 18, you will know if the calculator sums that out at 37, that you or it did something wrong. Same with Mortgage Calculators and Pre-Approval letters. You should know enough to know when the answer is outside of most people’s “comfort zone”.

Back to the online mortgage calculator. The first data field you need to fill out is “current combined annual income“. You need to know a few things to answer that question correctly.

1) When they say “income” they mean GROSS income, not your take-home pay.

2) If you are salaried, and make the exact same amount every paycheck, then your current salary is what goes in that data field. If any portion of your income is based on an hourly rate or a bonus for production, then your most recent income information is not usable. Unless it is a promise to pay (salary), then your “annual income” is determined by averaging your last two years worth of income AND is subject to subjective changes by the lender’s underwriter. Sometimes that happens a week before closing! So best to qualify yourself using projected, realistic potential outcomes.

If you just got a raise from $75,000 a year to $85,000 a year, and none of that $85,000 is subject to change based on hours worked or bonus income, then the full $85,000 a year goes in that box.

If you made $85,000 a year of which $60,000 is salary and $25,000 is overtime and/or bonus income, then $85,000 is NOT what you put in that box. If you had overtime and bonuses of $15,000 last year and $25,000 this year, then you add the two together and divide by 2, making your annual gross income $60,000 salary plus $20,000 of overtime and bonus pay. HOWEVER, if it is the reverse and you had $25,000 last year and $15,000 this year…not likely the lender is going to look at a figure higher than $15,000. They may impose a continued downward trend on that recent $15,000 earning vs. $25,000 the year before. In fact they could exclude it altogether as an unreliable source of income, unless your employer produces a letter guaranteeing that the overtime and bonus income will not drop below $15,000 for the next year or two.

3) “monthly child support payments” is the next line in that particular “mortgage calculator” and is the only additional income category. That doesn’t seem right at all to me. Best to contact a lender regarding all of your “other income” sources to determine which, if any, they will use. What if your child support payments are ending in 8 months? What about interest income, alimony payments, etc.? Unless you need to use these other income sources to qualify, and expect them to continue for the life of the loan, or at least for 10 years, I would suggest not including this “other” income. It will give you a “cushion” of extra monies if needed. Buy a home you can afford without these extra income considerations, if at all possible. More on this when we get to “back end ratio”.

Back to the handy but not so accurate online mortgage calculator it makes no sense to me why they would ask for HOA dues in the “income-debt” portion and then again when getting to estimated monthly payment for the new loan. In fact the whole “income and monthly debt obligations” section is poorly worded for accuracy. Once you get past income, you want to calculate your monthly “debt” payments. The most common of these are”

Car payments, Student loan payments, credit card payments, alimony or child support payments (though technically not “debt”). What you do not include are regular living expenses like utilities, gas, car insurance…all of these are not “debt’ payments.

Now skip all the way to the bottom and see the terms “front end” and “back end”. The calculator has a pre-set for 28% front end and a 36% back end. it allows you to change these pre-sets, but do not do that until you understand the numbers using the pre-sets. Assume that the pre-sets are the Average Comfort Zone for most people.

“Front-end” is your housing payment. “Back-End” is your total debt PLUS your housing payment. Old school rules work like this:

You make $10,000 a month gross at 28% = $2,800 a month for housing payment “front-end”
You make $10,000 a month gross at 36% = $3,600 a month for housing plus debt payment “back-end”.
IF your debt payments are $1,000 vs the $800 allowed, then your front end should be $2,600 vs. $2,800. $3,600 back end minus $1,000 = $2,600, so your “back end being out” reduces the amount available for housing payment by $200.
BUT that does not work in reverse. If you have NO DEBT, your housing payment stays at $2,800 and DOES NOT increase to $3,600. This based on how likely is it that you will have no debt for 30 years?

That last paragraph is the most important paragraph in this post, so take the time to understand it well.

28% front end and 36% back end has been the long term conservative approach since forever. It is also very rare that a lender will use these ratios when qualifying you for a mortgage, so YOU must do it yourself. Then when you know your payment should be $2,600 and the lender qualifies you for a payment of $3,500, you know just how much your lender is stretching you outside of conservative standards. That tells you how difficult it may be for you to actually make that payment for the next 3-5 years. A family with 4 children might only be able to spend 20% to 25% of their gross income on housing payment. A single person with a high income may be able to stretch to 33% of their gross income on housing payment. If you are a VA buyer…this is very important, as VA uses one ratio and not two (last I looked) allowing you to spend your full back end allowance on housing payment if you have no current debt.

One of the things that prompted me to write this post today was this comment I saw from a lender on Zillow:

The rules are still tightening-to a fault. Fannie Mae will soon be announcing that they are going to a 45% back end ratio and any borrower with a 620 fico score has to put down at least 20 percent. I can live with the 20 percent for a 620 fico,but the 45% back end ratio is going to make it even more difficult…

As you can see, lenders are not used to people qualifying at a conservative standard of a 36% “back end ratio” and are complaining that the rules are too tight when requiring a 45% back end ratio. OUTRAGEOUS! Remember we are using GROSS income and not net income. So 45% of your gross income on housing payment and debt is clearly NOT too “tight” of a rule.

Knowing how to qualify yourself using 28% front end and 36% back end, will help you know for yourself what monthly payment you truly can afford. Here’s my suggestion: If conservative ratios say you can afford $2,800 for a housing payment, and your lender says that number should be $3,500, test it first. If your current rent payment is $1,700, try putting $3,500 minus $1,700 in the bank every month (not on average). If you can’t put an additional $1,700 a month in the bank easily, each and every month for at least 6-9 months, don’t consider buying a house at the max your lender “says” you can afford.

In fact regardless of the ratios, it’s a very good idea for you to pretend you have that new housing payment well in advance of making an offer to purchase. Test for yourself, by banking the difference, before taking on that 30 year obligation to pay.

Seattle Schools – Admit by Address

The Seattle Times reports that Seattle is returning to a neighborhood-based system. Given it has been about 30 years since Seattle abandoned that system, this is big news for everyone who lives in Seattle, particularly people who are buying homes in Seattle.

According to the article, this decision passed by unanimous vote last night at 11 p.m.

If we’re going to use our limited resources efficiently, this is a big opportunity to reduce transportation costs, balance out enrollment so that hopefully the vast majority of our schools have enough students in them to be successful,” said board president Michael DeBell.

When people are looking for homes to buy, having a geographically based school system is very important. Not knowing which school your child is likely to attend adds a layer of uncertainty to an already uncertain process. I’m sure this decision will be controversial, but I have to agree that when an entire community is vested in the success of the “neighborhood” school…the system will improve via more outside support. Also, it will be easier to target the schools and communities that need more support than the local community can itself provide.

I went to the school around the corner from my house. I could even see inside the school from my yard. My children always attended the school nearest my home, and I used “which school?” as the basis for my home buying decision. Parents and children from the neighborhood around the school volunteered to help with seasonal maintenance projects and had a vested interest in the school being a safe and attractive neighborhood component.

On all counts, I think this is a good decision. Still I expect it will have as many unhappy constituents as it has happy supporters, until the system is in place long enough for people to forget the three decade old “used to be”.

Two Homebuyer Credits in One Bill

2for1Well it’s all approved and just needs the President’s Signature, so I think we can pretty much call this Homebuyer Credit Bill a done deal.

I am not going to call it an extension of the $8,000 credit, for fear that too many will miss the added $6,500 credit for *move up buyers. Two credits in one bill.

We won’t have the IRS links until after the Bill is passed, of course, but I updated my post of last week to reflect all of the things I expect this bill to have. Very little change from what was expected.

On the $6,500 credit looks like close date is not an issue and contract needs to be on or after Nov. 7.

So there it is…a two for one special. $8,000 First Time Buyer per the definition in the current bill PLUS a $6,500 credit for move up buyers for home purchase up to $800,000*who have owned their current home and lived in it consecutively for 5 of the last 8 years.

Investors, Tax Credit & 90 Day Seasoning.

crystal ballI rarely write on investor topics, because most of my topics come from recent issues discussed with one or more of my clients. But this week I was speaking with one of the few investor clients I choose to work with, though I use the term “work with” loosely, as most of the time I tell him “no, I don’t think that’s going to work out well for you.”

The client is looking at relatively lower priced homes. Without getting into too much detail due to confidentiality reasons, suffice it to say that the property purchased would end up back on market in a short time. While I am helping him purchase, and may or may not be helping him sell it later, I cannot move a step forward (for him) if I see a chink in the plan going ALL the way forward. Some will say that’s not my job, just write it up and let him buy the thing…but my brain just isn’t wired that way. But that’s the subject of another post.

It is very difficult to have a wide enough profit margin on a flip project to make it worthwhile. For that reason and many others, this is not a time when I accept investor clients without a lot of thought and penciling out of the numbers. That rules out most if not many investors except those “able” to do a lot of the work vs. hire it out. EXCEPT there is that problem of local laws that suggest, and buyers who want, ONLY a licensed contractor making those repairs and improvements.

But that is not the biggest current chink in the plan. The problem as I see it is balancing the timing of the soon to be buyer credits with The FHA 90 day seasoning rule.  Lower priced home sales over the next slightly less than 6 month period will most likely be supported by a new credit for buyers who are in contract on or before April 30 of 2010, this based on information available at present. What will happen at the end of that period is anyone’s guess, but my guess is that it will not be extended beyond that date in a meaningful way and that the market will react negatively come May 1, 2010. Even if the powers that be move to a phasing out stop-gap credit, I think that will be a total waste of money on all fronts, and that May 1, 2010 is D-Day anyway you slice it. It’s the day the carrot on the stick is no longer fit for consumption and a new carrot will not be forthcoming.

OK…moving on…why is this a problem? You write up the purchase, you close in 30 to 45 days…say mid December. Now, in order to get the property in escrow with a buyer before April 30, 2010 you rush a team of workers in there and get the whole thing done and back on market in 4 weeks by Jan 15, 2010. That gives you 105 days to get it into contract with a new buyer, right? Not so fast…maybe not.

Let’s assume that many if not most people in that area have been buying via FHA vs. 20% down or more Conventional. Each area is different and in this case FHA is the primary means of purchase in this price range for owner occupant buyers. In the instant case, the house specifics suggest the buyer will NOT be someone with lots of downpayment. Now let’s assume that if you can’t sell the house via FHA, you probably won’t sell it at all. Now let’s add one of the “newer” FHA restrictions (of many) The 90 day Seasoning Rule. This rule requires that the owner (my client) own the property for at least 90 days (seasoned ownership) before selling it. There are some exceptions to that rule, including banks who have foreclosed on the home:

On September 1, 2009, the rule was somewhat relaxed.  FHA now allows for a waiver when the property  is owned by a bank or some other foreclosing entity.  It also allows for a relaxation of the rule when a home is sold by a state or federal agency.

Now let’s go back to our timeline. He closes on the purchase on Dec. 15, 2009. He has to own it 90 days before the buyer can get FHA financing, that takes us to March 15th. Now his 105 days starts looking more like March 15 to April 30 or 45 days. There is no easy answer here and you can list it on January 15th and say “cannot close before March 15 IF the buyer is using an FHA loan”. But if you can’t get loan approval until March 15, you can’t close ON March 15 as a result….you see where I’m going here.

This weak market is not all about supply and demand. This weak market is not all about tighter lending standards as to income and downpayment needed to purchase. This weak market is not purely based on the rise and fall of the Homebuyer Credit.

Rather…this weak market going all the way back to August of 2007 (for the Seattle Area) is about the rules of the game constantly changing so much and so fast that sometimes waiting on the sidelines for the dust to settle becomes the best option. For flippers…well, it ‘s a very, very tough time to be one and it is not for anyone who wants to put on rose colored glasses. Get out your crystal ball and look at all the chinks in the armor.

What’s Happening with the $8,000 homebuyer credit?

Post Updated based on Info available as of 11/5/09 – No significant changes, but a few minor ones, so if you first read this back when I wrote it on 10/29/2009, take another look at the updates.

$8,000There are a lot of rumors flying around suggesting that the $8,000 credit has been extended. While that is not the case, as nothing has been signed yet, there seems to be strong support for:

1) Extending the $8,000 credit for 1st time buyers, including people who have not owned a home for 3 years

2) An added $6,500 credit for move up buyers who have owned their current home for at least 5 consecutive years of the last 8 years. (this provision is still under heated discussion and most subject to compromise before the bill is passed.) Updated 11/5/08

3) Expansion of the income requirement to $125,000 for an individual and $250,000  $225,000 for a married couple.

4) Extension to contracts entered into by April 30, 2010 that are also closed by June 30, 2010 (before July 1, 2010)

The most credible “rumor”/story going around [IMO] is CNN Money’s “$8,000 Credit Still in Play“.

In my opinion #1 and #4 make the most sense in that it seems senseless to drop the credit at the end of “Spring Bump” vs. just before 2010 “Spring Bump”.  Closing the door on the credit on Nov. 30th never made any sense, as seasonal factors will make it appear that the credit going away is having more of an adverse affect than it really is, given November through February sales are almost always lower as to price and volume.

Cutting the cord on the credit at the end of April (end of March even better) makes perfect sense, and gives the market the opportunity to compensate during its most robust season.  If the market can transition from 1st quarter 2010 with a credit, to 2nd and 3rd quarters without a credit on a flat market basis, it will be easier to get rid of it altogether. And yes…eventually…it really must go away. I certainly hope the industry isn’t going to keep lobbying indefinitely for its continuation. That would NOT be a good thing.

While it seems that “Senator’s Have Agreed” this credit is still not signed sealed and delivered, (Update 11/5/09 at last step, needs to be signed by the President) so stay tuned for the final version as I think the wheel may still be spinning with regard to the $6,500 move up buyer credit, as well as the expansion of the  income requirements.