I am watching the video preview of Google Wave, which is the hot topic that was demonstrated yesterday at the keynote of Day 2 of Google I/O.
Interesting stuff, open source, and the preview is a means for people to start thinking about apps they might write to enhance the use of this product, before it becomes publicly available.
The multi-faceted communication possibilities are very exciting.
Relocating to Seattle: Home Prices (King County only) by School District – I’ll start with the graphs:
I spent a considerable amount of time this weekend working on home prices by school district for a woman on the East Coast who is hoping to move to Seattle with her family.
My conversation with her touched on something that is very common, though not talked about much on real estate blogs. The reality that husbands and wives often disagree on priorities. Consequently you end up with a “want” list that can be near impossible to fill as in: wife wants a new kitchen and new baths in the best school for the children. Husband wants a single family home with at least four bedrooms and a yard for $350,000 or less.
It is very difficult, if near impossible, to search by school district on the internet. Narrowing it down to specific schools in a school district is even harder.
I started a series of posts by calculating the price variance of homes in six school districts. At the onset I eliminated homes over a million dollars and homes with lake or mountain views, and came up with these results as shown in the middle graph above. In order to evaluate where prices are currently vs. in previous years, I used March, April and May stats back to 2005, as I can’t search by school district prior to late February of 2005 as is explained in the linked post.
Next, I took the same timeframes but stuck the median of the three months combined (vs. separately) for each of those years as shown in the last graph in this post and explained HERE.
The 2009 data in the second graph above peaked my curiosity regarding the consistent spread between school districts seeming to go haywire in 2009, with half the school district home prices turning up and half turning down. While that may appear to be the market being “flat”, in reality UP vs DOWN does not equal “flat” to most home buyers and sellers, as they don’t get to average the two when buying or selling a specific home. That led me to this post and the graph below, to sort out median price changes from December of 08 to present.
Remember, these are school districts vs. cities, so part of Bellevue is in BE (Bellevue School District) and part of Bellevue is in LKW (Lake Washington School District). ISS is Issaquah School District, not the “mailing address” of Issaquah.
Given the recent inconsistencies, I moved to find a like kind product that fulfilled the “4 bedroom with yard” parameters of a family with a couple of children hoping to buy “a single family home $350,000 or less” in most of the available school districts, and came up with the split-enty or bi-level home (not split level home) described in this post. It has long been one of my favorites for “More Bang For Your Buck” and as the first graph shows, the same house can be had at different prices in various school districts.
The first graph tells you a lot. If you want the house with lots of upgrades for around $350,000, you more likely can get that where the median price for that style is in the $350,000 or less range. If you choose a school district where that home normally sells for much more than $350,000, you can still get that house, but you might have to sacrifice that newer kitchen or newer bathrooms as a trade off for the school you choose.
There is always a lot of controversy when discussing schools and which may be better or best. Consequently you don’t see much of that discussion anymore. The reality is that people who are relocating from thousands of miles away, look at homes on the internet, AND they try to choose schools using the internet.
Hopefully all of the data I put together will help one Mom and Dad sitting in DC with their current decision making process. As is my practice as a real estate blogger, I try to show you how I work for each client or potential client, and give you the benefit of seeing my thought process and the underlying data.
Last but not least…I know it isn’t Sunday :), but I try to tag all of my stat related posts here on Rain City Guide as “Sunday Night Stats” and on my blog as “Tracking the Market” so that people who like to follow those posts as a category, can do that via a one click link on both sites.
Hope everyone had a great Memorial Day Weekend!
(required disclosure) Stats are not compiled, verified or posted by NWMLS
The National Association of Realtors held their Mid-Year conference this week. Often the Mid-Year Conference kicks up more dirt than the Annual event, as the Mid-Year conference focuses more on the business end and the mls issues (legislative sessions). Less partying…more in depth issue discussions.
The big new issue is about Trulia and Zillow and the like. “Scraping” data vs. being spoon fed “appropriate” data. The big old issue is Dual Agency and what are “we” going to do about “it”.
The only news we must all and always be mindful of during these discussions is “we” are not the only ones in the “room”, and never will be. Remember in the Bible when the Powers That Be of the time tried to trick Jesus into boiling everything He said in His whole life down to ONE major and single Rule? Jesus didn’t skip a beat. If you don’t know what His one line answer was, well…go Google that. This is a Real Estate blog .
The one and only single rule of real estate, from which all other rules should follow is this: Buyers want a house at the lowest overall cost; Sellers want a buyer who gives them the highest net return.
Now take every mls rule, every State’s agency law, everything any broker wants and doesn’t want, everything any agent wants or doesn’t want, and hold it up against that one measurement…that one rule above all rules. Does what you want help buyers get their house at the lowest overall cost to them? Does what you want help sellers sell their house at the highest net return possible? If the answer is no…then change what you want.
The Big “New” Issue is about control of the mls data, control of the inventory, data scraping vs. direct feed via what insiders call IDX. IDX is what you see when you search property on any agent site. Simple as that.
The sticky wicket for issue number one is that buyers want to see all the houses, including For Sale by Owner homes, preferably all on one site. That is why a Public MLS (kind of what Trulia and Zillow may turn into) serves the needs of buyers better than a private and Broker controlled site. That will continue to be true until and unless the Brokers fill the need of buyers (and to some extent sellers) by permitting listings that have no listing agent. Don’t hold your breath on that one.
The answer, as I see it, is two sources and not one. One that has all listed property via any Brokerage site (as we all have access to all via IDX) and one that has all UN-listed property…and nothing else. Until then, buyer’s of homes will be confused into thinking that Zillow and Trulia and the like have all of the listed property PLUS…which it doesn’t. That means some portion of the public is always being mislead. Those that use only a brokerage site, and miss a choice For Sale By Owner property, and those that use Trulia or Zillow or Realtor.com, and miss a choice listed property. [One additional site for all rental property would be nice too. There’s a need someone should fill. But there never seems to be enough money generated by rental fees to support it actually happening.]
The Big “Old” Issue is Dual Agency. We already have that answer to some extent, it’s called Designated Agency. We simply need more time and practice and experience in the actual practice of Designated Agency…and that as they say is the SLOG of it. Until California adopts Designated Agency…there is no answer beyond the slog of it. When and IF California adopts Designated Agency, we’ll be able to make quicker progress.
Eradicating Dual Agency is not The NAR’s prerogative (Jim Duncan). Why? Look at The main rule of real estate according to ARDELL, characteristically in BOLD lettering in this post at paragraph four.
Sometimes and often, the buyer’s best way to get the house and/or get lowest overall cost, is by using the listing agent. Not always, but sometimes and often. The State can’t…the NAR can’t…remove that option from the buying public. In reality what a buyer wants is full representation, from the person who knows the most about the house, and at the lowest possible cost which is free (or what they sometimes perceive to be free).
Sometimes and often, the seller’s best way to get a buyer to buy his house and get the highest net return is to cut out one of (or both of) the agents in the process.The State can’t…the NAR can’t…remove that option from the selling public In reality what a seller wants is ready access to all buyers in the marketplace without having to pay two agents, AND they want the buyer agent fee to come back to them vs. it being given to the buyer, if the buyer has no agent. They also don’t want to pay a buyer agent to tell the buyer that the house is overpriced or inadequate. They also want the agent they hire to be free to bring them a buyer direct (dual agency).
All of the answers with regard to Dual Agency are done with from the NAR’s perspective. They discourage agents from practicing it, until and unless it is absolutely necessary (when the buyer and seller want it). Each State has a long way to go on agency issues, like explaining “no agency” in it’s required agency disclosure noting it as an option. Until States stop asking for the real estate industry to approve and help with it’s agency options, “No Agency” will not appear as a fully explained option for their constituency.
#fixreplies “Drove my Chevy to the levy, but the levy was dry…”
Marshall says it best, “Goodbye People I Never Knew” <tear>
The hustle and bustle of Twitter slowed to the level of a party gone flat…no bubbly. At first people just thought everyone decided to take a nap, all at the same time. Then there was a mass uprising…but no one can see it, because you can no longer see the @replies of people you don’t follow.
Last week, Twitter added a great new feature called Trending Topics. Little did they know that the #1 Trending Topic would be turned AGAINST them and their recent decision to quiet down the party.
#1 Trending Topic is #fixreplies and here are what some of the people are saying, as they are charging up to the castle to put the stake in Dr. Twitterstein’s heart.
“Oh gee that’s right @ev & @biz don’t follow most people, so they won’t see THAT WE’RE FREAKIN’ PISSED…#fixreplies”
Checking @ev the CEO of Twitter, it would appear that they didn’t notice until #fixreplies hit #1 on the Trending Topics list, as all @ev had so say during all this was “Lunching w/@BertDecker at Yank Sing. It’s been a deem sum week.”
Talk about clueless. Did they think people woudn’t notice that someone turned off the light switch?
Seattle’s own @Shih_Wei says: “Dear @ev, the only alternative is to put the options back in users’ hands. Newcomers will figure it out, too. #fixreplies”
Some hearfelt pleas: “Twitter is now hiding messages from people you follow, if it’s a reply to someone you don’t follow. How am I supposed to discover people now? #fixreplies “
Lots and lots of complaints, like this one: “Looks like Twitter will kill itself w/ stupid un-social changes like #fixreplies “
Given the comment above, maybe the post should have said The Day Twitter Committed Suicide.
Some of the Coders who write Twitter Apps, like Seattle’s @dacort see it as an opportunity: “dacort Twitter taketh away, and small angry developers will provideth. http://ff.im/2Qd4Z“
I’m going to go to sleep and hope I will wake up to find it was all just a bad dream.
While many of you may already know that May 15th is Starbuck’s Bike to Work Day, you may not know that there is an After-Party!
“On Friday, May 15 from 4 p.m. to 7 p.m. 22nd Avenue is being opened up and connecting to Bergen Place Park creating one large park. Cascade Bicycle Club has partnered with the city to make this a great event.”
More info included in the links in the first paragraph. If you are driving on May 15th, be aware that there will likely be a lot more bike traffic than usual, and be careful out there.
This Saturday, May 16th is Curb Day. Apparently this is a new concept that is picking up some steam across the Country.
Saturday, May 16, 2009, people all over will participate in “Curb Day
Spencer Rascoff, COO of Zillow, does a pretty good job with the questions thrown at him by three on CNBC.
Zillow’s color coded U.S. Map of % down per City begs the question, “Are you black and blue from the housing crisis?”
There’s some griping around the web about my separating North King County from South King County.
Sold YTD the median home price in North King County is $439,725 vs. $333,325 in South King County.
Sold YTD the median price per square foot in North King County is $217 vs. $169 in South King County.
I think a hundered grand difference, is a big deal. I think a 25% variance is a huge deal. Feel free to disagree.
Let me ask you this. You come to me saying you would like to buy a house for about $350,000 near Microsoft. I might be able to convince you to go to Green Lake or some point just to the other side (Seattle side) of the 520 bridge. Maybe Kenmore or Bothell or Juanita/Finn Hill…possibly Duvall. Maybe buy a townhome vs. a single family home. But would you agree to Federal Way or Auburn? I don’t think so. Pretending that what happens in Redmond influences what happens in Auburn, or vice versa, is of no value to anyone.
Markets are moved by the decision makers, and the decision makers in this market are the buyers of homes. Only home buyers can reset the data. So reporting in the manner that buyers actually make decisions to buy, is important.
If there ever comes a day when the majority of people who want to buy a home give equal consideration to Auburn vs. Redmond, well then they will become one market. Until then, separation is of more value than lumping everything together by County.
You should care about what happens in the market priced over your price range, as a cram down on those home prices will in lagging fashion affect the values in your price range. Knowing how many homes are sold there, and the buildup of unsold inventory there, will give you some predictive data with regard to the impact it will have on YOU. Will 100 houses not selling for over $1.2 million affect your purchase of a home for $350,000? Not likely. Will 2,000 homes not selling for between $600,00 and $800,000 affect the price of your purchase at $550,000? Very likely, yes.
Very, VERY important right now is the affect lower single family home price is having on the townhome and condo markets. Most sellers look at like kind product, and rarely condsider “If someone can buy a single family home for this price, why would they buy my townhome for the same price?” And that is exceptionally important right now for most condo and townhome owners.
I understand that it’s easier to understand data when everything is lumped together, and factoring in the specifics that affect YOUR decision is tedious and a lot of work. But for years people have said that your home purchase decision is one of the most important decisions you make in a lifetime. If you believe that is true, then shouldn’t it be hard vs. easy?
North King County – Additional data (that is not posted, compiled or verified by NWMLS) I hate that required disclosure. Would make more sense to credit them if it WAS regurgitated from their published data. Having to say it isn’t, every time I post data, is annoying but a rule of membership. And it must be in bold lettering. Apologies for the redundancy of having to say that in every data post.
Property sold, including homes, townhomes and condos in North King County for more than $600,000 represents only 19% of all property sold YTD.
Property FOR SALE and NOT sold in that same area as of today shows us that while only 19% of property sold is selling for over $600,000, 40% of what is for sale is priced at over $600,000.
That tells you that under $600,000 is 1,555 divided by 4 or 388 sales a month and 3,604 divided by 388 equals a 9 month supply of inventory in North King county priced at $600,000 or less.
Over $600,000 is 368 divided by 4 month YTD is 92 sales per month. 2,443 for sale divided by 92 sales per month = a 26 month supply of inventory, which is almost 3X worse than the under $600,000 property.
Let’s separate the condos from the single family homes in the under $600,000 market. While the overall absorption rate is a 9 month supply:
for condos under $600,000 the absorption rate is 13 months
for single family the absorption rate is 7 months
For “marketwatchers”, lumping everything together is easier. But if you are looking at real estate blogs for more than party chit chat, if you are trying to get a lot of info before buying or selling real estate, Countywide stats do not tell you the story you need to hear.
If $100,000+ variance in median home price between North King County and South King County means nothing to you, then you are not likely planning to buy or sell real estate.
It’s been a very long time since we’ve seen anything but volume down. Often we look for the low end to move early in the year, as a sign that there will be some increased activity in the higher price tiers in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Though I wouldn’t bet on that this year, as many who are selling will not be buying a replacement home.
The best story is in the $400,000 and under price range (single family). If I move that mark up to $500,000 and under, there is no increase.
Something good has to start somewhere, and that somewhere seems to be in the $400,000 or less price range. “North King County” was derived by drawing a line straight across downtown Seattle, and the stats are for anything in King County above that line. The increase is slight, but compared to the dramatic, continued decrease in the other price tiers, a little bit UP is big news. In the condo market there is also a slight increase in volume YOY in the under $200,000 market.
The worst news is for anyone trying to sell in the $1.2 million and above price range, where there seems to be a 5 to 6 YEAR supply of inventory. Even so, surprisingly many of those that did sell in 2009, sold in less than two weeks and at prices close to the 2009 assessed values. But the odds of selling at all are so slim to none for most sellers.
While you might not think there are many homes that sell for under $400,000 in North King County, the chart above shows that this price range accounts for a large % of all homes sold.
Not really a strong buyers market in the $400,000 or less range. To see the chart for the break down of properties for sale, vs. sold, I have all three graphs posted HERE. To get the absorption rate for current inventory, divide the amount sold by 4 and then divide total for sale by that amount.
I believe this is the first time we are seeing volume up YOY for pretty much anything, since the market turned in July of 2007.
An added sign that things are moving toward where more people can buy them. If I look at single family and condo sales combined, under $400,000 accounts for 52% of all solds vs. last year when that same price range accounted for only 40% of all solds.
Next week I’ll break that $400,000 to $800,000 down a bit, and see if the higher end of the tier is affecting overall performance. But at this point I do not see an increase YOY, even in the lowest price segment of that tier.
(required disclosure) Statistics are not compiled, posted or verified by NWMLS.
Spencer Rascoff, COO of Zillow and his daughter Sophia showing us how easy it is to use the new Zillow iPhone App. I love her happy dance…especially the second one.
Even a four year old knows it is disappointing when there is “only one picture”. What a bright little cutie!