If anyone has had broken window seals fixed and knows someone in the Redmond/Bellevue/Kirkland area who can fix them, can you please post the info in the comments section of this post, or email me direct?
Thanks!
Broken Window Seals
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Author Archives: ARDELL
Seattle Real Estate Market – King County
To know if the market is getting better or worse, we have to expect something of the market. That is the only way to know if the market is doing better or worse “than expected”. Active markets anticipate. If a company’s earnings are down to the same degree as anticipated and expected, there will be no change in prices. So we have to expect something to happen, and this post is all about what I expect to happen in the King County – Seattle Area Real Estate Market.
To keep saying the market is down from peak for 3-5 years is both boring and of no value, and only fun ad nauseum for whiners. I call that NSS (No Sh_t Sherlock) meaning no kidding the market is down from peak; that news is a year old now. What’s next?
To those who hate it when an agent sticks their neck out and makes predictions, I say…go away then or get used to it or get over it. Agents are paid good money to answer the question “Where is the real estate market going?” If we only got paid to open doors and say “do you like this house”, we’d be paid $15 an hour. That’s the going rate for a good real estate assistant.
Sellers need to know if selling next year is better than selling this year. Sellers need to know when they get an offer today, if that offer is or isn’t likely the best offer they are going to see in their timeframe. Buyers need to know if they can sell in 1-3 years without taking a loss. People need agents to have an opinion about the future, both the near term future and the foreseeable future, They can’t simply rely on personal experience and say “well I’ve never seen that happen” because the future is not about the recent past.
The graphs below show what I expect the market to do as to volume, which will assist us in determining true Absorption Rate and knowing whether the market is getting better or worse (than expected).
I’m calling Absorption Rate as of now, 10 months. Current inventory is 12,403 and I expect it to take 10 months from today for 12,403 Residential properties to sell in King County. That also means it will be a Buyer’s Market until and unless we see inventory drop from 12,403 to 7,500. That can happen by property selling, or sellers deciding to rent or withdraw from the marketplace, at a higher rate than properties are coming on market. I expect that to start happening on September 1 and continue through year end. Whether or not prices will continue to decrease into next year and beyond will depend on how close we can get to 7,500 properties on market by December 31st.
The two graphs below are a double check system. On a month to month basis we would expect to see variance. Sometimes August sales are higher than September, and sometimes September sales are higher than August. So the double check is for the Quarterly sales stats to fall into the prescribed ranges within a reasonable variance.
I took the year notations off the monthly stats, as I don’t expect these numbers to change unless there are changes in the mortgage market that create additional buyers. That could be lower interest rates and.or looser lending standards. Until then, we have to learn to live with what we can most likely expect to happen.
Sunday Night Stats – More signs of stability
King County Home Sales for the last 8 years, the only time July volume was higher than June homes sold was in 2003. That 2008 is lower than 2007 is old news. The good news is that the relationship of sales month to month is following a predictable pattern and a normal relationship.King County Home Prices
King County Home Prices June and July
Same as to prices. Even in the boom years, the relationship of prices from June to July was pretty much the same as it is now. Prices are running slightly above where they were this time of year in 2006.
Both of the above graphs are for King County Residential (not condo). The question isn’t whether or not August will be down, but whether it will be down in a normal relationship to June and July.
The text is centering and I can’t stop it 🙂 Since it’s almost 1 a.m., I will do the regular weekly stats in the morning and post a link here. I was more interested in end of July stats. A few more will trickle in for months, so I’d say July was not a bad month overall.
Stats not compiled or published by NWMLS (required disclosure)
Remember Dustin's Project Blogger Apprentice?
Million Dollar Listing
Back in April of 2007, Dustin chose Madison as his Project Blogger Apprentice. My Apprentice, Kevin Tomlinson of South Beach Luxury Condo Fame (also very hot), clued me in today on Madison’s Cover debut on PlayGirl Magazine.
Madison is also one of the stars of Million Dollar Listing
Madison Hildebrand Million Dollar Listing
Your Mama of The Real Estalker reported a few posts ago about one of the other stars of the show being released on $100,000 bail. If you are into “hard core real estate porn”, I highly recommend The Real Estalker. It’s a fast paced great read, and one of Kevin’s Favorite Blogs.
Someone wanted to do a “Where are the Apprentices?” a year later, but I don’t think anyone would have guessed “On the Cover of Playgirl Magazine” 🙂
The new (2nd) season of Million Dollar Agent airs Tuesday Night, August 5th on Bravo.
Sunday Night Stats
It’s too early in the month to post the end of July stats. We’ll do that next week as many agents will post their month end closings during this week. Seems to me that August closings may keep pace with July and July will be down from June as to price, and maybe volume too. Two of my listings are pending inspection for August closings, and one has been on market for quite sometime. Another is at least a bridesmaid…waiting to hear if it made it to bide. If there’s no offer, it was at least a close second So it seems to me that some people who have been looking and looking, are starting to move in and make offers.
King County Condos
2004 – 1Q – 1,694 – $188, 2Q 2,636 – $199, 3Q 2,540 – $196, 4Q 2,176 – $195
2005 – 1Q – 2,066 – $198, 2Q 2,925 – $209, 3Q 2,769 – $226, 4Q 2,266 – $224
2006 – 1Q – 1,956 – $242, 2Q 2.748 – $252, 3Q 2,737 – $269, 4Q 2,217 – $278
2007 – 1Q – 2,042 – $295, 2Q 2,862 – $302, 3Q 2,676 – $311, 4Q 1,618 – $294
2008 – 1Q – 1,258 – $299, 2Q 1,508 – $287
Changes in condo stats for this week
Active Listings: 4,030 – DOWN 70 – median price $319,950 – MPPSF asking $310 – DOM 65
In Escrow: 793 – DOWN 39 – median asking price $289,950 – MPPSF asking $291 – DOM – 50
Sold YTD : 3,060 – UP 134 – median list price $289,950 – median sold price $285,000 – MPPSF – $289 DOM 49
Residential King county
2004 – 1Q 5,650 – $152, 2Q 9,237 – $160, 3Q 8.737 – $163, 4Q 7,467 – $165
2005 – 1Q 6,402 – $173, 2Q 9,093 – $185, 3Q 9,131 – $192, 4Q 7,301 – $195
2006 – 1Q 5,596 – $201, 2Q 8,248 – $214, 3Q 7,771 – $216, 4Q 6,204 – $217
2007 – 1Q 5,304 – $222, 2Q 7,393 – $230, 3Q 7,944 – $229, 4Q 4,301 – $221
2008 – 1Q 3,640 – $219, 2Q 4,641 – $220
Changes in residential stats for this week
In Escrow: 2,559 – DOWN 125- median asking price $419,950 – DOM 48 – MPPSF $204.8
SOLD YTD: 9737 – UP 420 – median asking $449,950 – median sold price $440,000- DOM 49 – MPPSF $217
Actively for sale 12,307 – DOWN 210 – MPPSF <$800,000 is $220 – MPPSF >$800,000 is $332
Stats not compiled or published by NWMLS. (Required disclosure)
Rain City Guide at Inman Connect San Francisco 2008
This Photo is floating around from Inman Connect dubbed as “Dustin’s Angels” 🙂
That’s Dustin, Rhonda, Jillayne and me at The Trulia Party.
Who Should Get Out Of The Real Estate Business?
Dustin, Jillayne, Rhonda, Galen and I were all in San Francisco for a few days for The Inman Connect Conference. One of the most profound and spot on statements I heard at the Conference was “If you do not have a listing, right now, in THIS market (top-heavy with inventory)…turn in your license!”. Sorry I can’t remember who said it. In fact I think it was a woman in the audience and not on one of the panels. But how TRUE is THAT! With inventory at all time highs, can you say you are a real estate agent if you have NO listings?! I thought that was a punch in the glass jaw to some of the agents milling around the conference.
The highlight of my trip was when Pete Flint of Trulia came over to me at the Better Homes and Gardens Soiree and handed me his card. He recognized me from Trulia Voices 🙂 I gained a huge respect for him given our conversation. We were talking about Trulia Voices vs. Zillow Q & A, and I was impressed with his sincere level of interest in opinions on the subject. Trulia had the best party, BTW. A funny in the Trulia Voices link up there. One of the agents immediately gave my response a “thumbs down”, while at the same time the person who asked the question voted it as Best Answer. Oh well, you can’t please everyone.
I still feel guilty about keeping Marc Davison of 1000 Watt Blog up so late that he missed his Panel Moderation the next morning. Brian Boero filled in for him. Officially the reason for his missing the panel was related to his recuperation of severed finger. But I can’t help but feel that had I let him get a little more sleep the night before, he might have made it. Yet, I can’t say I’m sorry for detaining him for so long…I just didn’t want to let him go. He’s an amazing person.
I’m hoping Inman or Sellsius will post a video of the panel I was on, moderated by Joe Ferrara. I was a little nervous about being on a panel with THREE attorneys! Russ Cofano, Joe Ferrara the moderator and the woman from NAR. I was told afterward that something I said was Twittered into cyberspace instantaneously. Not sure what it was…I wasn’t Twittering on my iPhone while speaking on the panel. I got visibly annoyed with Todd Carpenter during the discussion (sorry Todd). The Panel was on “How Not To Get Sued” as a blogger. Todd was basically saying to be nice and avoid controversial topics. But Russ and I had a really nice conversation and rapport on stage. (No Tim, no Punch and Judy show.)
I was the only one in the room that clapped for Frank Llosa on “The Future of the MLS” panel when he spoke of the button next to the Listing Agent info that explains why, as a buyer, you might not want to call the Listing Agent. Here’s a quote from Frank’s website that will give you an idea of why I like him ”
“TRUST ME, I’M A REALTOR” Yeah Right! When was the last time a REALTOR talked you OUT of buying a house or condo?…”
The big “visual event” of the trade show was a new Franchise called “BUG Realty”. “At Bug!…We are the “no hype,
Sunday Night Stats – Where's the market heading?
Tonight I want to get an idea of where the market is heading as we go into July, as to prices. I’m going to bulk together some Zip Codes that I personally follow, to have a large enough area to be meaningful, and yet zero in on local at the same time.
I’m getting the data as I am typing, so I have no idea how the numbers will fall. We’ll find out together.
First Group: 98033, 98052, 98004, 98005, 98007 and 98008 on a combined basis.
Residential:
In January of 2008: median Asking Price of homes sold was $652,450 and the median Sold Price of those same homes was $625,000. Median days on market of those sold homes was 68 days and 27.66% sold in 30 days or less. Median Price Per Square Foot = $267.66
Lets jump to May 2008 and see where the market went by that time from the beginning of the year. Median Asking Price $643,500. Median Sold Price $630,000. Median Days on Market 41 and 38.28% sold in 30 days or less. Median Price Per Square Foot = $272.72
June 2008: median Asking Price $710,000. median sold price $690,000. Median days on market 61 and 33.58% sold in 30 days or less. Median Price Per Square Foot = $277.10
July month to date: Median Asking Price $650,000. median sold price $639,000. Median days on market 50 and 30.92% sold in 30 days or less. Median Price Per Square Foot = $253.57. Median type of house was a 4 bedroom 2 1/2 bath 2,520 sf home.
Some pretty large homes are in escrow with the median square footage of all homes in escrow at 2,660 and a medain price per square foot of $262.20. Of course that $262.20 is asking price and not sold price, so prices are trending down from July 1 to present.
Let’s compare that to June of 2007: Median Asking Price $699,000. Median Sold Price $685,000. Median days on market 21 and 61.09% of homes sold in 30 days or less. Median Price Per Square Foot = $292.73. Median type of house was a 4 bedroom 2 1/2 bath 2,340 sf home.
Interesting July stats so far. The size of home is larger, the price is lower. More home for less money as I said last week. Very Interesting. But the numbers are so different from May and June. Fewer houses sold quickly. This data is worth tracking week to week, especially as we head into fall.
Second Group Seattle 98115 and 98103 on a combined basis excluding townhomes (townhomes on Eastside automatically not included for the most part, as on The Eastside townhomes are condos and not residential). Trying to keep this apples to apples.
In January of 2008: median Asking Price of homes sold was $540,000 and the median Sold Price of those same homes was $522,500 Median days on market of those sold homes was 51 days and 29.57% sold in 30 days or less. Median Price Per Square Foot = $253.64
Lets jump to May 2008 and see where the market went by that time from the beginning of the year. Median Asking Price $595,000. Median Sold Price $580,000. Median Days on Market 20 and 61.97% sold in 30 days or less. Median Price Per Square Foot = $277.51
June 2008: median Asking Price $550,000. median sold price $546,000. Median days on market 29 and 54,02% sold in 30 days or less. Median Price Per Square Foot = $265.04
July month to date: Median Asking Price $567,450. median sold price $553,450. Median days on market 23 and 56.90% sold in 30 days or less. Median Price Per Square Foot = $261.67. Median type of house was a 3 bedroom 1 3/4 bath 2,115 sf home.
Let’s compare that to June of 2007: Median Asking Price $567,000. Median Sold Price $569,500. Median days on market 13 and 75.93% of homes sold in 30 days or less. Median Price Per Square Foot = $273.79. Median type of house was a 3 bedroom 1 3/4 bath 2,080 sf home.
The median asking price of all pending sales is $535,000 and the median square footage is 2,085. Looks like better “deals” are in escrow as we speak at $256.59 MPPSF as to ASKING prices with that number to be pared down further as to sold prices.
Stats not compiled or published by NWMLS. (Required disclosure)
Unless someone asks for the regular weekly King County Stats, I’ll post them over on my blog tomorrow. It’s been a long, back-breaking day for me. I was more interested in finding out where the market was heading, than posting overall King County since last Sunday. But I will post them on my blog tomorrow for the benefit of those who have been charting them on Excel Spreadsheets.
Goodnight!
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You can find the regular weekly stats here.
Tami Michaels re Mayor Nickels & Multi-Family Design Standards
Tomorrow morning, Saturday July 26th, at 11:00 a.m., a representative of the Seattle Mayor’s Office will be On Air with Tami Michaels. The show will be devoted to Mayor Nickels proposed changes to multi-family zoned construction (original announcement from the Mayor’s Office).
And more details about Tami’s show tomorrow here.
Tami called me before I left for Inman Connect to discuss this topic, specifically with regard to regulations that could increase costs for builders and consumers at a time when the housing market is weakening. The discussion led to the age old question “Can government dictate taste in housing style?”
I have had many discussions over the years with various municipalities regarding this topic, and they all hinge on this quote from City Councilmember, Sally Clark “The mayor and I have both heard a lot lately about how growth is affecting our neighborhoods, not all of it is positive…”
Over the span of my 18 plus years in real estate in various places on both Coasts, I have become involved with this issue from time to time, and EVERY time it boils down to nothing happening except a bunch of controversy with little to no satisfactory result. I have been to several “town meetings” where everyone who was griping was invited to attend and participate in discussions to improve whatever everyone “wanted” or was griping about. Each time what became apparent as a result of these meetings is that you can never get everyone to agree, and sometimes you can’t even get people to attend the meetings!!! It’s one thing to hang around griping about change, it’s quite another to be asked to get involved in a viable solution.
So I ask anyone who thinks they might have something to add to the discussion regarding proposed changes to multi-family zoned building projects in Seattle, to head on over to Tami Michaels’ post and add a comment. I’m going to listen to tomorrow’s radio show and gather more info before commenting. Maybe you would like Free Flushes to become mandatory…maybe not.
Anyone involved in Seattle Real Estate, or residents who have something to add about townhomes or the proposal in general, should tune in tomorrow at 11:00. “The changes would affect the 10 percent of the city zoned for multifamily construction, from low-rise development throughout the city to high-rise residential towers on First Hill. The change is heralded by the Mayor’s Office as “… the first major update to multifamily zoning in Seattle in 20 years.”
Don’t let a once in 20 years change pass by, without at least craning your neck to take a peek at what it’s all about.
Sunday Night Stats
Before I did the Quarterly and Weekly stats tonight, I did a few calculations on newer vs. older property. I was wondering with lower volume, if more newer properties were selling at a higher rate. Given more choices, would people disproportionately select newer homes and condos? Answer was no, not dispropotionately.
35% of residential properties for sale were built since 2000 and 33% of properties sold YTD were built since 2000. 32% of condos for sale were built since 2000 and 38% of condos sold were built since 2000. So a tad overweighted toward newer on condos, but not by much.
The significant news this year, since volume of property sold being down is really last year’s news that continues in a stablilized manner, is that this is the first time in many years that the MPPSF is lower in the 2nd quarter than in the 1st Quarter.
The scarier number is the $206 per square foot on the residential properties currently in escrow. It is quite possible that this lower number is being caused by short sales that are not closing at these low numbers. Short sales take a long time to close, so we may not know that answer until the end of the 3rd Quarter.
King County Condos
2004 – 1Q – 1,694 – $188, 2Q 2,636 – $199, 3Q 2,540 – $196, 4Q 2,176 – $195
2005 – 1Q – 2,066 – $198, 2Q 2,925 – $209, 3Q 2,769 – $226, 4Q 2,266 – $224
2006 – 1Q – 1,956 – $242, 2Q 2.748 – $252, 3Q 2,737 – $269, 4Q 2,217 – $278
2007 – 1Q – 2,042 – $295, 2Q 2,862 – $302, 3Q 2,676 – $311, 4Q 1,618 – $294
2008 – 1Q – 1,258 – $299, 2Q 1,508 – $287
Changes in condo stats for this week
Active Listings: 3,958 – UP 90- median price $319,990 – MPPSF asking $312 – DOM 65
In Escrow: 856 – DOWN 14 – median asking price $289,000 – MPPSF asking $294 – DOM – 49
Sold YTD : 2,955 – UP 178 – median list price $290,000 – median sold price $287,000 – median PPSF – $290 DOM 49
Residential King county
2004 – 1Q 5,650 – $152, 2Q 9,237 – $160, 3Q 8.737 – $163, 4Q 7,467 – $165
2005 – 1Q 6,402 – $173, 2Q 9,093 – $185, 3Q 9,131 – $192, 4Q 7,301 – $195
2006 – 1Q 5,596 – $201, 2Q 8,248 – $214, 3Q 7,771 – $216, 4Q 6,204 – $217
2007 – 1Q 5,304 – $222, 2Q 7,393 – $230, 3Q 7,944 – $229, 4Q 4,301 – $221
2008 – 1Q 3,640 – $219, 2Q 4,641 – $220
Changes in residential stats for this week
In Escrow: 2,760 – UP 2- median asking price $425,000 – DOM 48 – MPPSF $206
SOLD YTD: 8,963 – UP 648- median asking $449,950 – median sold price $440,000- DOM 49 – MPPSF $223
Actively for sale 12,339 – UP 436- MPPSF <$800,000 is $220- MPPSF >$800,000 is $335
Stats not compiled or published by NWMLS. (Required disclosure)