About ARDELL

ARDELL is a Managing Broker with Better Properties METRO King County. ARDELL was named one of the Most Influential Real Estate Bloggers in the U.S. by Inman News and has 34+ years experience in Real Estate up and down both Coasts, representing both buyers and sellers of homes in Seattle and on The Eastside. email: ardelld@gmail.com cell: 206-910-1000

Sunday Night Stats – King County

An update to the Property Stats for King County from last week:

Residential – Single Family

For sale – 8376 – UP 279

In escrow – 1809 – UP 27

Closed in Janaury so far – 236 -NEW CATEGORY

Condo 

For Sale – 2,870 – UP 125

In escrow – 780 – UP 47

Closed in Jan so far – 69 – NEW CATEGORY

 

Apologies Sandy, no Bellevue Stats today.  I’ve decided to do them in map grid first, and visit some of the new on markets for commentary on how the new is comparing to old listings, and to track if the new listings are selling at a higher rate than current inventory.

Broker’s Opens are on Thursday.  I’ll report afterward.

“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.

Seattle Bubble Says Seattle Markets Going UP!

As seen on Seattle Bubble:

“Seattle shows up on their forecast at #21 on their top performing markets list with an expected 3.8% increase.”

Seriously in 2005 when the housing market was positioned to go UP, Seattle Bubble started the Gloom and Doom Blog.

Now after it has DOUBLED in some places against their predictions of Bubbles Popping, and is showing signs of weakness…WHAT?  Going UP.  I couldn’t believe my eyes.  Not saying it isn’t, just couldn’t believe my eyes.  Talk about being at the wrong place at the wrong time…twice.

Sorry everyone, I just couldn’t help myself.  The Empire Strikes Back!  I knew that picture of a guy talking out his butt would come in handy one day.

Trulia wouldn't let me say "pain in the butt"

LOL.  This is a short post.

I was answering a question over at Trulia today.  (I get an email when there is a new question from the Seattle Area.)  I answered the question and it wouldn’t post.  It was a very long answer, so I thought maybe it was too long.  No, it said “No Profanity Please”.  I kept reading my answer and it took me awhile to figure out that:

Trulia thinks “pain in the butt” is profanity.  Cracked me up.

P.S.  Oh well, it was really, REALLY snowing.  That’s our excuse and we’re sticking to it.  GO SEAHAWKS! 

Bellevue Manor Price Histogram

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Alan asked me to do a price histogram.  I’m not sure if this qualifies as one, but it’s the best I could do for now.  These are one bedroom condos in Bellevue Manor across from Microsoft on 148th since they were built in 1979.  All identical square footage. 

There are no one bedrooms for sale in The Manor or The Highlands, but one is in escrow in the highlands at $218,000 which is a substantial jump from the high of June of $176,000.  We’re all waiting to see if it will close/appraise.

I’ll do some more as we go through 2008, but I won’t do medians.  If most of the people are buying the cheapest thing they can get, that will turn the median sale price down.  But it doesn’t mean any of those people paid less than the last one sold, as you can see from this price histogram.

Sunday Night Stats

I know how much I enjoy being able to check RCG for mortgage rates every Friday, thanks to Rhonda.  I’m going to try to do the same for King County Stats on Sunday nights.  Each week I will also highlight a different City or Seattle Zip Code over on my blog.  Tonight I did Kirkland Stats.

I don’t have any commentary for King County Stats tonight.  But there’s plenty of commentary on the Kirkland Stats.  There’s less than a three month supply of inventory for property priced at or below the median price sold in 2007.  There’s a very strong buyer’s market in the high end of $1M or more for condos and $1.5M or more for single family homes.

I’ll try to post the stats here every Friday night for King County, but until we get a couple of months of sales, or the full first quarter of 2008, commentary would simply be conjecture.  I don’t expect the number of homes sold in 2008 to be dramatically different in the first half of 2008, as they were in the last half of 2007. 

I expect that brown slice of December 2007 closings to change a bit each week as agents post late.  There were even a few late postings for November and October since last week.  I’ll try to update and keep the data as accurate as possible.  As always, and by mls rule, I must disclose that I, ARDELL compiled these stats using MLS as a source only.  The data is not compiled by NWMLS.

[photopress:king_county_condos.jpg,full,alignright]

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“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.

Historic Seattle Home Parts

[photopress:earthwise.jpg,thumb,alignright]If you get a chance, and live in an old historic Seattle home, visit Earthwise Salvage.  It’s located behind AquaQuip on 4th Ave S under the West Seattle (Spokane) Bridge.  I found the store personnel Amy and Diana, have just the right balance of letting you browse and being helpful when you ask questions.

This piece was easily one of the best of store.  Can you imagine the grand old home this one came from?  Double sinks in the master are the norm for master baths today, but not when this one was made.  Would be nice if those who brought them also tagged the piece’s history showing where the piece came from.

Double Sink Antique Fixture

Kim just loved this big old solid core door

My favorite wasn’t for sale.  Amy suggest that MAYBE the owner would part with it for $5,000, but no promises.  Fab for a turned staircase with a window at the landing.

victorian stained glass window

]If you know anyone who lives at 3643, they should clearly grab this one.

3643

Tons of knobs

Whether you are looking for something big or a replacement part, it’s a great place.  Kim said when he lived in his old house in Denny Blaine he was looking for a replacement exterior light, and this place had exactly what he was looking for many years ago.

So for those of you going through what he did, looking to replace one fixture of an old house without changing them all out to new fixtures, Earthwise Salvage is just the place to find it.

Seattle Real Estate

I left December out, since most of the month end closings aren’t posted yet, and month end could be a large percentage of a month’s sales.  But we want to start off 2008 with some kind of benchmark and expectation for the year in front of us.

I could have called this “and then came September…”, but the single family market actually had a double whammy.

Condo sales in 2007 actually started out UP 3.8% over 2006 until we hit September closings.  (that’s units sold, not pricing)

Single Family Homes were conversely DOWN by 9.4% under 2006 when we hit September closings. (again, # of units sold and not pricing)

So first we had people priced out of the Single Family Market moreso than the condo market, and then the Mortgage Crisis hit both markets in August which reflects in the September and subsequent month closings. 

I posted most of the data for King County for 2005, 2006 and 2007 over at my blog, for those who want to pull the data and draw their own conclusions. 

[photopress:2007_sfh.jpg,full,aligncenter]

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I’ll come back to this topic, and include inventory issues, after December closings for 2007 are posted.

Dustin Luther and ARDELL's butt make "the news"

[photopress:dustin_1_2.jpg,thumb,alignright]The BIG news today is that Inman named Dustin Luther, Owner and Founder of Rain City Guide among many other things, one of the Top TEN People to Watch in 2008

  1. Errol Samuelson, president, Realtor.com
  2. Sheila Bair, chairwoman, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp
  3. Lockhart Steele, founder and publisher Curbed.com
  4. Sam Zell, Chicago billionaire
  5. Kerry Killinger, CEO, Washington Mutual Inc.
  6. Andrew Cuomo, New York attorney general
  7. Dustin Luther, founder, 4realz.net
  8. Lawrence Yun, chief economist, National Association of Realtors
  9. Ben Bernanke, chairman, Federal Reserve
  10. Kurt Pfotenhauer, CEO, American Land Title Association

Those with an Inman subscription can catch it here for those who can’t see that link, the blurb on Dustin is reposted here.

Of lesser import, my butt appears to be the opening shot of Joe and Rudy’s great video posted yesterday, over at Sellsius of  San Francisco Inman Connect/end of Blog Tour USA.

Congratulations Dustin!!!  I agree that you are clearly one to be watching in 2008.  We certainly will be watching you.  I find myself becoming addicted to 4Realz.net very quickly, though I think that site is just a speck of what we will be seeing and hearing from you in 2008.

Happy New Year!

 

Lower Cost Options for Buyers & Sellers of Real Estate

As I get ready for 2008, I reflect back on the progress, and lack thereof, of an industry flailing with the challenge of providing more and varied options for people buying and selling homes.  Seems to me that the answer is in each and every agent being their own business within the company, and offering options to consumers, vs. the company as a whole trying to provide the more and many options consumers need.

How does a company survive?  How does an agent become one who stays vs. one who quits?  How do you accomplish these two objectives AND nurture the environment of better cost options for consumers all at the same time?

I’m throwing my thoughts out here, not necessarily in order of importance, to spark some discussion that may help us all in 2008 and beyond.

First let’s look at the agent specific issue.  It is that time of year when many real estate licenses go back to the DOL.  Not because the license is due for renewal, but because it is time to pay both MLS dues AND REALTOR dues.  Many who have held on to a license just in case they want to buy or sell a house, or to help their friends and family buy homes, are opting to turn those licenses in vs. paying the dues.

Brokers should step aside and even encourage agents to get out of the business of selling a house or two a year.  That is not to say that every agent who only sold a house or two last year should quit.  But if your goal isn’t to become excellent at what you do, and sell at least 10 to 12 houses in 2008, maybe it’s time to sign out altogether.  OR agents should (and their broker’s should let them) develop a model that provides a lower cost option to consumers indicative of the agent’s lack of expertise in the meantime.  Be honest with consumers about your credentials and price your services accordingly.  This way you will have assisted many in achieving their objective of lower cost, and at the same time increased your experience level by participating in more home sales and purchases.  Seems like it could be a win-win strategy, as long as the consumers are happy with a decreased experience level at a decreased price.

How does a company survive?  If the company has to charge the agent more and more to survive, causing the agent to charge consumers more and more to survive, well then maybe the company should quit.  OR brokers should charge agents less, so they can be free to price their services more fairly, and maybe all will become stronger as a result.

While consumers seem to want the transparency of a NEON SIGN heralding a cheap price for real estate services, seems the answer lies somewhere else.  The answer lies not in the smaller quantity of companies trying to configure into more and varied options.  The answer lies in the vast number of individual licensees each being free to offer varied prices.  More options for consumers would be greatly expanded if each and every licensee could negotiate freely with consumers and develop varied options, vs. simply the companies that house the licensees.

If an agent gets to keep most of the commission, vs as low as half of the commission, then the agent can negotiate better deals for consumer as a result.

My thougts are this.  I’d much rather have 60% of agents be excellent at what they do than the typical 10% to 20% of agents.  I’d rather have more agents paying less per sale, and paying the smaller cap rate, than lots of agents selling one house and paying 50% of the commission to the company.  I’d rather have all agents free to negotiate with consumers, than one set price  or small range of pricing, dictated by a company policy.  By giving each agent the freedom to create their own business model, consumers will have more choices than any number of companies can provide.

To Brokers, take your cap rate of say $30,000 per agent and reduce it to $20,000 or less.  Instead of taking half the commission from ANY agent, try to have double the amount of agents paying you the lesser cap of $20,000, than paid you the higher rate last year.  Now you will have more money, agents will pay less and hopefully charge consumers less as a result, and each agent will have more freedom to capture more money for themselves via better priced options for consumers.

At year end double check to make sure that the agents passed some of the savings that you gave to THEM, on to the consumers.  Don’t reward greed and don’t charge less simply so the agent can make even more.  Make sure they are honoring the spirit of the change by passing forward the benefit in a meaningful way.

Sounds a bit like a fairy tale, I know.  But it’s the time of year to dream and plan and strategize based on your highest hopes for all.  Peace On Earth…Good Will Toward “Men” is not just a quote from on high.  It’s a way of life, or it’s just a bunch of words.  Do your best in 2008 to create a better way for as many as possible, yourself included.